Nelson out for the year, will miss time in 2018 (post #150)

[TURBO]

Woodruff not looking so hot tonight... Anyone still think he is just as good for a playoff run as Nelson?

 

*sigh*

[bill hAll Star]

*my head hurts*

 

There is no possible chance that pitching the bull pen or some other form of 9 innings of hellball from this point on will have better results than Jimmy Nelson.

 

I can't buy that, makes no sense. I think it can be painted any way you want, but losing Nelson for the remainder of the season AND the playoffs if that becomes a reality is freaking major blow to any success we might have had!

 

Nelson's ERA this year is 3.50. The bullpen's ERA is 4.00, but that is factoring in Wily Peralta and other guys that would never pitch in one of these games inflating it. Hader, Knebel, Hughes, Swarzak, and even having to go to Torres for an inning definitely equals a 3.50 ERA or better. Maybe those guys have a slightly deflated ERA due to them letting inherited runners from the starters score and it not counting, but that bullpen game definitely can equate to Jimmy Nelson for 3-4 starts.

 

For 3 or 4 games, a cobbled together bullpen game is extremely likely to produce about the same results as a "good" pitcher that Nelson is.

 

Now, the Brewers' bullpen is not as deep so I'd lean towards slightly worse but I don't understand why some of you guys are laughing me off.

 

I'd never do it for the bulk of a season but I think 2 innings of Garza + the bullpen would allow 3-4 earned runs over 9 innings if you gave it a large sample of games which...is what Jimmy Nelson + 2-3 innings of bullpen would give you.

 

Wouldn't it be nice to be able to throw Hader in in the 4th inning when Votto, good righty such as Duvall, Scooter, and Schebler come up? Nelson is a very good pitcher but I'd rather have Hader in that situation.

 

You also get the advantage of basically having a DH all game and getting to pick-and-choose how you want to play it. Get up 7-1? Let Garza keep going and see if you can hold on for the win. Garza gets blown up early? Throw him to the wolves for 5 innings or let Wilkerson eat 5 innings no matter how many runs he gives up. Close lead? Now you pitch backwards with your best reliever/best matchups as you would in the playoffs.

[tmwiese55]

Maybe change your phrasing from 'extremely likely' to 'feasible' or 'could easily happen' and I think most would probably generally agree. A bullpen day is a risky day, especially with out bullpen since you're relying on up to 5 guys to not be off and get beat up. In our BP the only guys we'd have any trust in that not happening is Knebel and Swarzak. The rest are hit or miss and you have no idea what you get any day. You have to roll that dice 4-5 times in a BP game rather than just once in a normal game to bridge the gap from starter to the 8/9 guys.

[FVBrewerFan]

*my head hurts*

 

There is no possible chance that pitching the bull pen or some other form of 9 innings of hellball from this point on will have better results than Jimmy Nelson.

 

I can't buy that, makes no sense. I think it can be painted any way you want, but losing Nelson for the remainder of the season AND the playoffs if that becomes a reality is freaking major blow to any success we might have had!

 

For 3 or 4 games, a cobbled together bullpen game is extremely likely to produce about the same results as a "good" pitcher that Nelson is.

 

Now, the Brewers' bullpen is not as deep so I'd lean towards slightly worse but I don't understand why some of you guys are laughing me off.

 

I'd never do it for the bulk of a season but I think 2 innings of Garza + the bullpen would allow 3-4 earned runs over 9 innings if you gave it a large sample of games which...is what Jimmy Nelson + 2-3 innings of bullpen would give you.

 

Wouldn't it be nice to be able to throw Hader in in the 4th inning when Votto, good righty such as Duvall, Scooter, and Schebler come up? Nelson is a very good pitcher but I'd rather have Hader in that situation.

 

No, I don't think it's crazy for a short time frame like this. But I see two problems. One, you are burning up an outing from Hader and others automatically. It's go time, but you still need to be careful with how often you trot Hader out there. Swarzak can't pitch every single day either. So, when you know going in you'll have to use these guys, that's one other game you won't be able to use them.

 

Also, whenever you go with the Johnny Wholestaff approach, the more relievers you use, odds are one of them will have a bad night. And with this offense, one bad inning is all it may take.

 

I think what we'll see the remainder of the way is a quick hook for the SP regardless of who it is, as opposed to planning in advance to have a certain pitcher go only 3 innings. If someone is rolling, why take him out after 3.

[bill hAll Star]

Maybe change your phrasing from 'extremely likely' to 'feasible' or 'could easily happen' and I think most would probably generally agree. A bullpen day is a risky day, especially with out bullpen since you're relying on up to 5 guys to not be off and get beat up. In our BP the only guys we'd have any trust in that not happening is Knebel and Swarzak. The rest are hit or miss and you have no idea what you get any day. You have to roll that dice 4-5 times in a BP game rather than just once in a normal game to bridge the gap from starter to the 8/9 guys.

 

Sure, but you run the same risk of Jimmy Nelson giving up 3 runs in any given inning even if on the whole he gives up 3 runs in 7 innings (many would say that's basically what you'd expect out of him).

 

Say Garza comes in and throws 2 shutout innings (again, he's fine for the first time around the order).

 

Barnes comes in and gives up 2 runs in an inning, Swarzak gives up 0, Hader goes 2 scoreless, Torres gives up 1 run, Hughes gives up 0, Knebel gives up 0.

 

That's the same thing as Nelson giving up 3 runs over 7 innings and Swarzak/Knebel shutting the door, which I think most would agree is the expected/good scenario out of Nelson.

[bill hAll Star]

*my head hurts*

 

There is no possible chance that pitching the bull pen or some other form of 9 innings of hellball from this point on will have better results than Jimmy Nelson.

 

I can't buy that, makes no sense. I think it can be painted any way you want, but losing Nelson for the remainder of the season AND the playoffs if that becomes a reality is freaking major blow to any success we might have had!

 

For 3 or 4 games, a cobbled together bullpen game is extremely likely to produce about the same results as a "good" pitcher that Nelson is.

 

Now, the Brewers' bullpen is not as deep so I'd lean towards slightly worse but I don't understand why some of you guys are laughing me off.

 

I'd never do it for the bulk of a season but I think 2 innings of Garza + the bullpen would allow 3-4 earned runs over 9 innings if you gave it a large sample of games which...is what Jimmy Nelson + 2-3 innings of bullpen would give you.

 

Wouldn't it be nice to be able to throw Hader in in the 4th inning when Votto, good righty such as Duvall, Scooter, and Schebler come up? Nelson is a very good pitcher but I'd rather have Hader in that situation.

 

No, I don't think it's crazy for a short time frame like this. But I see two problems. One, you are burning up an outing from Hader and others automatically. It's go time, but you still need to be careful with how often you trot Hader out there. Swarzak can't pitch every single day either. So, when you know going in you'll have to use these guys, that's one other game you won't be able to use them.

 

Also, whenever you go with the Johnny Wholestaff approach, the more relievers you use, odds are one of them will have a bad night. And with this offense, one bad inning is all it may take.

Yes, you might be locking yourself into throwing Hader or Swarzak, but it's not as much as you'd think since you can play matchups and gameflow. Maybe you don't need Hader. Maybe you let Wilkerson or Guerra go for a few innings in the middle and they don't allow baserunners or they do in their 3rd inning of work but Swarzak shuts the door so you don't need Hader. Maybe your offense blows up so you can use your 2nd tier of bullpen guys to hold on.

 

 

I think what we'll see the remainder of the way is a quick hook for the SP regardless of who it is, as opposed to planning in advance to have a certain pitcher go only 3 innings. If someone is rolling, why take him out after 3.

 

Agree, and this is what I'm suggesting. If you get up 7-1, let Garza roll. If you're down 5-1, go with your lesser bullpen or throw Garza/Wilkerson to the wolves for 4 more innings.

[tmwiese55]

Maybe change your phrasing from 'extremely likely' to 'feasible' or 'could easily happen' and I think most would probably generally agree. A bullpen day is a risky day, especially with out bullpen since you're relying on up to 5 guys to not be off and get beat up. In our BP the only guys we'd have any trust in that not happening is Knebel and Swarzak. The rest are hit or miss and you have no idea what you get any day. You have to roll that dice 4-5 times in a BP game rather than just once in a normal game to bridge the gap from starter to the 8/9 guys.

 

Sure, but you run the same risk of Jimmy Nelson giving up 3 runs in any given inning even if on the whole he gives up 3 runs in 7 innings (many would say that's basically what you'd expect out of him).

 

Say Garza comes in and throws 2 shutout innings (again, he's fine for the first time around the order).

 

Barnes comes in and gives up 2 runs in an inning, Swarzak gives up 0, Hader goes 2 scoreless, Torres gives up 1 run, Hughes gives up 0, Knebel gives up 0.

 

That's the same thing as Nelson giving up 3 runs over 7 innings and Swarzak/Knebel shutting the door, which I think most would agree is the expected/good scenario out of Nelson.

 

Right, but then you have to roll the dice again and again. It's not like if one gets hit the next one won't, especially if they get handed a mess to deal with on the bases. Don't get me wrong, I totally get what you're saying and it could totally happen, especially just for one or two starts. But I just wouldn't call it likely or as trustworthy as just rolling with the guy who's been solid all year other than like 3 games.

 

Like someone else I think just said, one would guest their approach will be a combo of what you're saying along with normal starting. As in they'll have a normal starter but hopefully have an extremely short rope with them and be ready to go your route if/when needed. The next two days should be very bullpen heavy, but with a day off Thursday it should be ok to use everyone up.

[bill hAll Star]

Maybe change your phrasing from 'extremely likely' to 'feasible' or 'could easily happen' and I think most would probably generally agree. A bullpen day is a risky day, especially with out bullpen since you're relying on up to 5 guys to not be off and get beat up. In our BP the only guys we'd have any trust in that not happening is Knebel and Swarzak. The rest are hit or miss and you have no idea what you get any day. You have to roll that dice 4-5 times in a BP game rather than just once in a normal game to bridge the gap from starter to the 8/9 guys.

 

Sure, but you run the same risk of Jimmy Nelson giving up 3 runs in any given inning even if on the whole he gives up 3 runs in 7 innings (many would say that's basically what you'd expect out of him).

 

Say Garza comes in and throws 2 shutout innings (again, he's fine for the first time around the order).

 

Barnes comes in and gives up 2 runs in an inning, Swarzak gives up 0, Hader goes 2 scoreless, Torres gives up 1 run, Hughes gives up 0, Knebel gives up 0.

 

That's the same thing as Nelson giving up 3 runs over 7 innings and Swarzak/Knebel shutting the door, which I think most would agree is the expected/good scenario out of Nelson.

 

Right, but then you have to roll the dice again and again. It's not like if one gets hit the next one won't, especially if they get handed a mess to deal with on the bases. Don't get me wrong, I totally get what you're saying and it could totally happen, especially just for one or two starts. But I just wouldn't call it likely or as trustworthy as just rolling with the guy who's been solid all year other than like 3 games.

 

Like someone else I think just said, one would guest their approach will be a combo of what you're saying along with normal starting. As in they'll have a normal starter but hopefully have an extremely short rope with them and be ready to go your route if/when needed. The next two days should be very bullpen heavy, but with a day off Thursday it should be ok to use everyone up.

 

Your 2nd paragraph I agree with and is basically what I'm saying. If Counsell has Guerra start (totally fine with it) and has him pitch out of a bases loaded jam at 45 pitches in a 0-0 game in the 3rd inning, he should be fired. I'd even say consider bringing in a new pitcher if 1 or 2 guys get on base at that point of the game.

 

As for the probabilities of runs given up. I don't know how many other ways to say this really, but every inning Jimmy Nelson throws, the probability of him giving up x runs is essentially the same as the aggregate of Barnes, Hader, Hughes, Swarzak, etc. giving up x runs.

 

Assuming Nelson is pitching 110-120 pitches so he doesn't get the same luxury the bullpen does of throwing harder or facing matchups, the probability of Hader against a crop of lefties giving up a run or more is lower than Nelson giving up a run or more. However, I'd slightly lean Jimmy Nelson facing lower batting order righties over an inning of Hughes in that case.

 

However, aggregate all of those probabilities and you have roughly Jimmy Nelson. There is also a probability that Nelson gives up 3-4 runs in an inning that is not being factored in. Jimmy Nelson is basically 7 independently thrown pretty good right-handed relievers for an inning each. Nelson can falter in any inning (he has many times this season) just like "you have to rely on the next guy not to screw up." You're "rolling the dice again and again" every inning you throw Nelson out there.

[tmwiese55]

Nelson is a 3.5 era. Our bullpen minus Knebel/Swarzak is not close to that number. And my expectations for a Guerra/Garza for two innings would also be below a 3.5 avg. Again, I get this totally 'could' work in such a small sample and that it's all within close %s. But I know which route I'd trust more and it would be Nelson for 7 and then our two solid 8/9 guys.

[bill hAll Star]

Nelson is a 3.5 era. Our bullpen minus Knebel/Swarzak is not close to that number. And my expectations for a Guerra/Garza for two innings would also be below a 3.5 avg. Again, I get this totally 'could' work in such a small sample and that it's all within close %s. But I know which route I'd trust more and it would be Nelson for 7 and then our two solid 8/9 guys.

 

Guerra and Garza both are good when facing the first time around the order. Guerra can throw harder as well knowing he's going less innings. Both of those guys have a ~.650 OPS against them if it's the first time a batter is seeing them in a game.

 

We're close to an agreement here, but given matchups and batters only seeing some of the lesser starting pitchers once, I think the odds of a well-pitched game are pretty good.

 

Even if you think that cobbled together mix-and-match game is "slightly worse" than Nelson, given that we'll know whether or not to trot out good pitchers given gameflow, and other things like always getting a pinch-hitter...we may be talking about the difference of 3 or 4 runs given up for the rest of the season.

 

A handful of runs difference could be massive if it comes down to losing to the Cubs by 1 game, but odds are that a small difference like that will not make the difference in making the playoffs or not and basically all I came in here to do was to dump some water on the "we lost arguably our best pitcher -- season over because of that" fire.

 

Losing Jimmy Nelson for an entire season is catostrophic. Losing him for September where you have expanded rosters so you can pitch a full bullpen game is a very, very small issue if played correctly. Especially given that our playoff odds are pretty low already.

[KeithStone53151]

Man alive, are you still on this? Garza and Guerra are not virtual locks to be able to pitch 2 clean innings each as you suggest. Heck Guerra allowed a HR in the first inning of each of his last 2 appearances, that's even with his velocity back up due to pitch in relief. This happening late in the season, with our depth, allows us to more easily cover the innings without stressing our pen. We will not get nearly the same quality from whoever pitches the first 5-6 innings on Wednesday as Nelson would give us. Disputing that is just plain silly.

[Outlander]

Now that I disagree with. On any given game one starter can outpitch another and as the Brewers have seen before a new pitcher can fool big leaguers for a few inning. It is certainly possible whoever pitches Wednesday can give the same quality for 5-6 innings as Nelson would have.

[KeithStone53151]

Now that I disagree with. On any given game one starter can outpitch another and as the Brewers have seen before a new pitcher can fool big leaguers for a few inning. It is certainly possible whoever pitches Wednesday can give the same quality for 5-6 innings as Nelson would have.

 

I clearly was implying that whoever pitches the 5-6 innings nelson would have pitched down the stretch, but feel free to angle-shoot a comment to try and sound smart.

[bill hAll Star]

Man alive, are you still on this? Garza and Guerra are not virtual locks to be able to pitch 2 clean innings each as you suggest. Heck Guerra allowed a HR in the first inning of each of his last 2 appearances, that's even with his velocity back up due to pitch in relief. This happening late in the season, with our depth, allows us to more easily cover the innings without stressing our pen. We will not get nearly the same quality from whoever pitches the first 5-6 innings on Wednesday as Nelson would give us. Disputing that is just plain silly.

 

I'll spare this board going too much further after this one, but it really isn't so silly.

 

The odds are not as different as you think.

 

It's easy to say, "Jimmy Nelson, he's our stud pitcher and I just come to expect a good 6 or 7 innings."

 

He's given up 7 runs, 9 runs, 5 runs, and had about 6 or 7 appearances where he only went 5-6 innings and gave up 4 runs or 5 innings and 3 runs. Sure, he's given up 0-2 runs in 6+ innings in about half of his starts, but he also has his bad games.

 

If you don't think that there are relatively good odds that Garza, Guerra, and a mix of the bullpen playing matchups have the chance to give up 1 or 2 runs over 6-7 innings with also chance of giving up 4 runs in 5 innings in 1/3 to 1/2 of their "starts" just like Jimmy Nelson, I don't know what to tell you. Guerra has struggled a bit more in the first inning of work but in general is good his first time around the order and Garza is good first time around. Factor in that you can play matchups and there isn't a huge dropoff for the final 3 weeks.

 

And again, in terms of just trying to win the game, you could always get ahead 7-0 and just let your starter (Jungmann for example) roll and still win the game if he gives up 4 runs in 5 innings. Or maybe Jungmann gives up 6 runs early but the Brewers scored 0 anyways meaning that there was no difference in game result from what Nelson would've done.

[tmwiese55]

Yup, the phrasing you used there I think is much better than saying "relatively good odds". I think earlier you used things a little more definitely positive. In such a small sample it's possible and close percents.

 

What's funny is that this is being tested out right now before our eyes. Have to say I'm not loving the stress of it, haha

[bill hAll Star]

Looks like we're 1/1 in bullpen games :-)

[tmwiese55]

Looks like we're 1/1 in bullpen games :-)

 

Let's not forget about the bullpen day in WAS that ended with Perez pitching haha

 

Yea it worked just like you hoped last night. Lots of those middle innings had their drama though and kind of feel like we got lucky. But like your whole point said, it's not like a normal good starter doesn't get into trouble and get out of it sometime too.

[markedman5]

 

[markedman5]

[hurricanecrush]

That's better than I had expected. Hopefully they are just as optimistic after surgery.

[OnaBadger58]

That's better than I had expected. Hopefully they are just as optimistic after surgery.

They said the partial tear (because it was on the basepaths) is not normally where pitchers tear their labrum. I don't think this Nelson will be missing to much of '18 if any at all.

[benji]

We can hope! A debridement procedure (simple clean out) is a quick easy recovery

 

 

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[pacopete4]

We can hope! A debridement procedure (simple clean out) is a quick easy recovery

 

 

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Easy as in we'll see you sometime in the post season?

[benji]

Not that easy. Takes too long to rebuild arm strength. Its like a knee scope. Typically takes 4-6 weeks to get back on field. Shoulders take longer for a pitcher to come back.

 

If just a debridement he will be ready opening day though.

 

 

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[chuckiehacks]

Stearns just said Nelson needed repair to labrum and will miss "a chunk" of 2018.

 

Ugh.