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Nelson out for the year, will miss time in 2018 (post #150)


homer
Both of you guys have an opinion, he included some support for both of his opinions.

Having opinions is great. Telling someone that theirs shouldn't be shared is ridiculous.

 

I know you were one of the people that thought the Brewers would tank mentally because we didn't acquire a SP. These players are professionals. They are paid big dollars to leave it all out on the diamond every day. If you watch the games, they have great attitudes pretty much all the time. They are also in the thick of a playoff chase and just swept the cubs in Wrigley. They are flying about as high as it gets right now, I can't imagine the choice of starting pitcher for one game is going to change that.

 

You do? Not saying you are wrong but I feel like you are. I was in favor of adding a pitcher if the price was right. I don't think I ever spoke on what you are referring to. Relief pitching, on the other hand, I've had quite a bit to say about it and the mishaps there.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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I dont see any way we dont trot Garza out there. They will not bring an unknown into the middle of a pennant race and Garza is the safe choice. CC can do a pathetic interview after the game about how Garza helped get them where they are now blah blah blah. If anyone in the org has the marbles to go with a minor leaguer I will be pretty surprised.

 

Allowing Garza to start might be #3 in my all-time most hated starts of guys who will obviously suck, after Shaun Marcum 2011 NLCS game 6 and Jeff Poop-on game 4 2008 NLDS.

 

Garza has been pulled from the rotation in favor of Woodruff and Suter. Both are completely unproven at the MLB level.

 

Jungman didn't start for CS yesterday for a reason. He'll be starting.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"88.6% of all statistics are made up right there on the spot" Todd Snider

 

-Posted by the fan formerly known as X ellence. David Stearns has brought me back..

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Why isn't Guerra in the discussion? He seemed to work out his control issues in CS and since he's returned he's hit 95 regularly in his couple of bullpen stints. Sure he gave up a couple runs, but both were in blowouts when he was just focusing on getting strikes.

 

Taking a chance that the 2016 Guerra shows up with his mid 90's fastball and his still very hard to hit splitter makes more sense to me than trotting Garza back out there.

 

He certainly should be able to go 5 good innings, as he was up to 90 pitches in his next to last start at CS.

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If they start Garza and it blows up again and costs them a playoff spot, both Stearns and Counsell will lose these players trust. At least if I was on the team and it happened, I wouldn't trust a damn thing they did if that scenario were to play itself out.

 

If Counsell starts Garza, and it costs them a playoff spot in the long run, Counsell should lose his job!!

 

Garza should not pitch again this year unless it is mop up innings one way or the other. He NEEDS to be done!

 

Any managerial decision to start Matt Garza should cost that manager his job.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS
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I dont see any way we dont trot Garza out there. They will not bring an unknown into the middle of a pennant race and Garza is the safe choice. CC can do a pathetic interview after the game about how Garza helped get them where they are now blah blah blah. If anyone in the org has the marbles to go with a minor leaguer I will be pretty surprised.

 

Allowing Garza to start might be #3 in my all-time most hated starts of guys who will obviously suck, after Shaun Marcum 2011 NLCS game 6 and Jeff Poop-on game 4 2008 NLDS.

 

Garza has been pulled from the rotation in favor of Woodruff and Suter. Both are completely unproven at the MLB level.

 

Jungman didn't start for CS yesterday for a reason. He'll be starting.

 

Woodruff and Suter both got their original starts due to injuries, then they became "established" They did just skip Garza but then ran him back out there again. I guess Jungmann was in the rotation previously so maybe they use him, I hope so.

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Adam McCalvy‏Verified account @AdamMcCalvy 8m8 minutes ago

More Brewers press notes are out; No add'l call-ups from Triple-A after SkySox season ended yesterday. Also still TBA for Wednesday's start.

 

I would think they are trying to keep it as close to the vest as possible. Less time to prepare for whoever they choose.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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Adam McCalvy‏Verified account @AdamMcCalvy 8m8 minutes ago

More Brewers press notes are out; No add'l call-ups from Triple-A after SkySox season ended yesterday. Also still TBA for Wednesday's start.

 

If that's the case, at this point I hope it's Suter, and he can provide an efficient 4-5 innings. It certainly is nice having a decent to good swing-man at the team's disposal. I have the sinking feeling that it will be Garza, though. If that's the case, I hope the team packs the bats they brought Saturday.

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Adam McCalvy‏Verified account @AdamMcCalvy 8m8 minutes ago

More Brewers press notes are out; No add'l call-ups from Triple-A after SkySox season ended yesterday. Also still TBA for Wednesday's start.

 

If that's the case, at this point I hope it's Suter, and he can provide an efficient 4-5 innings. It certainly is nice having a decent to good swing-man at the team's disposal. I have the sinking feeling that it will be Garza, though. If that's the case, I hope the team packs the bats they brought Saturday.

 

I'm pretty sure Suter is going tomorrow, Weds is still in doubt.

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If they start Garza and it blows up again and costs them a playoff spot, both Stearns and Counsell will lose these players trust. At least if I was on the team and it happened, I wouldn't trust a damn thing they did if that scenario were to play itself out.

 

If Counsell starts Garza, and it costs them a playoff spot in the long run, Counsell should lose his job!!

 

Garza should not pitch again this year unless it is mop up innings one way or the other. He NEEDS to be done!

 

Any managerial decision to start Matt Garza should cost that manager his job.

 

What if Garza starts and has a good outing? Does Counsell still lose his job or does he get to keep it? Just trying to keep track of all this.

 

I'm guessing players will lose all respect for CC if he names Garza starter, and he'll be fired. Then Garza has a good outing, players respect CC again and he is re-hired. Garza gets a 2nd start, gets rocked. Now CC, Stearns, Uecker, and Hank the Dog are all fired. Players lose respect for Ed Sedar and Jerry Augustine, but they keep their jobs. Finally, players DO respect the Italian Racing Sausage, but he's fired anyhow.

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If they start Garza and it blows up again and costs them a playoff spot, both Stearns and Counsell will lose these players trust. At least if I was on the team and it happened, I wouldn't trust a damn thing they did if that scenario were to play itself out.

 

If Counsell starts Garza, and it costs them a playoff spot in the long run, Counsell should lose his job!!

 

Garza should not pitch again this year unless it is mop up innings one way or the other. He NEEDS to be done!

 

Any managerial decision to start Matt Garza should cost that manager his job.

 

Counsel lose his job... :laughing

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Why isn't Guerra in the discussion? He seemed to work out his control issues in CS and since he's returned he's hit 95 regularly in his couple of bullpen stints. Sure he gave up a couple runs, but both were in blowouts when he was just focusing on getting strikes.

 

Taking a chance that the 2016 Guerra shows up with his mid 90's fastball and his still very hard to hit splitter makes more sense to me than trotting Garza back out there.

 

He certainly should be able to go 5 good innings, as he was up to 90 pitches in his next to last start at CS.

 

If gun to my head, those were the 2 options, I guess I'd probably go Guerra. That's far more of an indictment on Garza though. and thankfully we have other options. Guerra might be stretched to throw 90 pitches, but he hasn't even thrown one good inning since getting back to the majors. Asking for 5 is a big stretch.

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If they start Garza and it blows up again and costs them a playoff spot, both Stearns and Counsell will lose these players trust. At least if I was on the team and it happened, I wouldn't trust a damn thing they did if that scenario were to play itself out.

 

If Counsell starts Garza, and it costs them a playoff spot in the long run, Counsell should lose his job!!

 

Garza should not pitch again this year unless it is mop up innings one way or the other. He NEEDS to be done!

 

Any managerial decision to start Matt Garza should cost that manager his job.

 

What if Garza starts and has a good outing? Does Counsell still lose his job or does he get to keep it? Just trying to keep track of all this.

 

I'm guessing players will lose all respect for CC if he names Garza starter, and he'll be fired. Then Garza has a good outing, players respect CC again and he is re-hired. Garza gets a 2nd start, gets rocked. Now CC, Stearns, Uecker, and Hank the Dog are all fired. Players lose respect for Ed Sedar and Jerry Augustine, but they keep their jobs. Finally, players DO respect the Italian Racing Sausage, but he's fired anyhow.

 

Man are you a disrespectful person. Do you feel better about yourself now? Exactly the type of posts that cloud up these threads and make this place absolute crap. Either give your opinion or don't. But don't be a turd to others in the process. I'm not sure why that is such a hard thing for people these days.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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If they start Garza and it blows up again and costs them a playoff spot, both Stearns and Counsell will lose these players trust. At least if I was on the team and it happened, I wouldn't trust a damn thing they did if that scenario were to play itself out.

 

If Counsell starts Garza, and it costs them a playoff spot in the long run, Counsell should lose his job!!

 

Garza should not pitch again this year unless it is mop up innings one way or the other. He NEEDS to be done!

 

Any managerial decision to start Matt Garza should cost that manager his job.

 

What if Garza starts and has a good outing? Does Counsell still lose his job or does he get to keep it? Just trying to keep track of all this.

 

I'm guessing players will lose all respect for CC if he names Garza starter, and he'll be fired. Then Garza has a good outing, players respect CC again and he is re-hired. Garza gets a 2nd start, gets rocked. Now CC, Stearns, Uecker, and Hank the Dog are all fired. Players lose respect for Ed Sedar and Jerry Augustine, but they keep their jobs. Finally, players DO respect the Italian Racing Sausage, but he's fired anyhow.

 

My post was a knee jerk fan reaction, of course I know that would never happen.

 

Add to the fact that I think Counsell has an endless leash, and that makes it even more improbable...

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS
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The solution is pretty easy. Garza (or honestly name a pitcher we have not already in the rotation, I don't care) can have his spot and basically Counsell can have the hook ready at any sign of trouble after the 2nd inning. Garza is fine for the 1st time around in the batting order this season.

 

We don't need to have a "starter" in the truest sense at this point in the season. We've got expanded rosters until we make the playoffs and in the playoffs will barely need a 4th starter -- if we do, a bullpen game is fine and we're playing with house money at that point.

 

If Counsell lets lower-velocity Guerra, AAAA Jungmann, or declining Garza take the rotation spot and pitches them like it's May 25th (let them pitch through a jam, get to 100 pitches) then he deserves to be flamed.

 

We've got like 3 or 4 turns in the rotation left. Why would we not do this? It would be silly to worry about who the "starter" is. Just pitch bullpen games with the expanded roster.

 

My hot take is that Nelson's injury barely hurts us [for this season]. It is a terrible loss for a full season. We can effectively pitch a bullpen game and get a "DH" with expanded rosters pinch hitting almost every time the pitcher slot comes around.

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The solution is pretty easy. Garza can have his spot and basically Counsell can have the hook ready at any sign of trouble after the 2nd inning. Garza is fine for the 1st time around in the batting order this season.

 

We don't need to have a "starter" in the truest sense at this point in the season. We've got expanded rosters until we make the playoffs and in the playoffs will barely need a 4th starter -- if we do, a bullpen game is fine and we're playing with house money at that point.

 

If Counsell lets lower-velocity Guerra, AAAA Jungmann, or declining Garza take the rotation spot and pitches them like it's May 25th (let them pitch through a jam, get to 100 pitches) then he deserves to be flamed.

 

We've got like 3 or 4 turns in the rotation left. Why would we not do this? It would be silly to worry about who the "starter" is. Just pitch bullpen games with the expanded roster.

 

My hot take is that Nelson's injury barely hurts us [for this season]. It is a terrible loss for a full season. We can effectively pitch a bullpen game and get a "DH" with expanded rosters pinch hitting almost every time the pitcher slot comes around.

 

 

Guerra's velocity has been back since returning. He was hitting 95 in both his relief outings. Question for him is getting ahead so he can use his out pitch.

 

Garza was on a short leash his last start and still allowed 6 runs.

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The solution is pretty easy. Garza can have his spot and basically Counsell can have the hook ready at any sign of trouble after the 2nd inning. Garza is fine for the 1st time around in the batting order this season.

 

We don't need to have a "starter" in the truest sense at this point in the season. We've got expanded rosters until we make the playoffs and in the playoffs will barely need a 4th starter -- if we do, a bullpen game is fine and we're playing with house money at that point.

 

If Counsell lets lower-velocity Guerra, AAAA Jungmann, or declining Garza take the rotation spot and pitches them like it's May 25th (let them pitch through a jam, get to 100 pitches) then he deserves to be flamed.

 

We've got like 3 or 4 turns in the rotation left. Why would we not do this? It would be silly to worry about who the "starter" is. Just pitch bullpen games with the expanded roster.

 

My hot take is that Nelson's injury barely hurts us [for this season]. It is a terrible loss for a full season. We can effectively pitch a bullpen game and get a "DH" with expanded rosters pinch hitting almost every time the pitcher slot comes around.

 

I see your point on Nelson, but the quality of pitching we will see for 6-7 innings for the 3-4 turns he'd have remaining is far different with Nelson than a grab bag of Garza/Guerra/Jungmann/Wilkerson/Jeffress. It's nice having extra arms to allow for quick hooks, but I'd rather those guys get paid to have a dance contest in the bullpen than throwing meaningful pitches. And that doesn't even consider any postseason potential. Davies/Anderson were pitching anyway. Woodruff(who's still very young) would have been our 4. Now he's going to be relied on to be our 3rd pitcher in any postseason game...and we really don't have a 4th one. And you don't get expanded rosters in playoffs.

 

That also doesn't consider the risk that Nelson doesn't return fully to form from the injury. Shoulder injuries are worrisome to say the least.

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The solution is pretty easy. Garza can have his spot and basically Counsell can have the hook ready at any sign of trouble after the 2nd inning. Garza is fine for the 1st time around in the batting order this season.

 

We don't need to have a "starter" in the truest sense at this point in the season. We've got expanded rosters until we make the playoffs and in the playoffs will barely need a 4th starter -- if we do, a bullpen game is fine and we're playing with house money at that point.

 

If Counsell lets lower-velocity Guerra, AAAA Jungmann, or declining Garza take the rotation spot and pitches them like it's May 25th (let them pitch through a jam, get to 100 pitches) then he deserves to be flamed.

 

We've got like 3 or 4 turns in the rotation left. Why would we not do this? It would be silly to worry about who the "starter" is. Just pitch bullpen games with the expanded roster.

 

My hot take is that Nelson's injury barely hurts us [for this season]. It is a terrible loss for a full season. We can effectively pitch a bullpen game and get a "DH" with expanded rosters pinch hitting almost every time the pitcher slot comes around.

 

 

Guerra's velocity has been back since returning. He was hitting 95 in both his relief outings. Question for him is getting ahead so he can use his out pitch.

 

Garza was on a short leash his last start and still allowed 6 runs.

 

It wasn't quick enough. He did fine the first time around the order (check the splits, he's fine first time around), a couple guys got on, and then Craig Counsell let him pitch to Joey Votto, Scott Schebler, Adam Duvall, etc.

 

I don't know if I said it in a game thread here but I was definitely yelling it on Twitter, etc...Counsell should have come out and gotten him in the 3rd when the Reds got a guy on base and the meat of the order (most being lefties) were due up.

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The solution is pretty easy. Garza can have his spot and basically Counsell can have the hook ready at any sign of trouble after the 2nd inning. Garza is fine for the 1st time around in the batting order this season.

 

We don't need to have a "starter" in the truest sense at this point in the season. We've got expanded rosters until we make the playoffs and in the playoffs will barely need a 4th starter -- if we do, a bullpen game is fine and we're playing with house money at that point.

 

If Counsell lets lower-velocity Guerra, AAAA Jungmann, or declining Garza take the rotation spot and pitches them like it's May 25th (let them pitch through a jam, get to 100 pitches) then he deserves to be flamed.

 

We've got like 3 or 4 turns in the rotation left. Why would we not do this? It would be silly to worry about who the "starter" is. Just pitch bullpen games with the expanded roster.

 

My hot take is that Nelson's injury barely hurts us [for this season]. It is a terrible loss for a full season. We can effectively pitch a bullpen game and get a "DH" with expanded rosters pinch hitting almost every time the pitcher slot comes around.

 

I see your point on Nelson, but the quality of pitching we will see for 6-7 innings for the 3-4 turns he'd have remaining is far different with Nelson than a grab bag of Garza/Guerra/Jungmann/Wilkerson/Jeffress. It's nice having extra arms to allow for quick hooks, but I'd rather those guys get paid to have a dance contest in the bullpen than throwing meaningful pitches. And that doesn't even consider any postseason potential. Davies/Anderson were pitching anyway. Woodruff(who's still very young) would have been our 4. Now he's going to be relied on to be our 3rd pitcher in any postseason game...and we really don't have a 4th one. And you don't get expanded rosters in playoffs.

 

That also doesn't consider the risk that Nelson doesn't return fully to form from the injury. Shoulder injuries are worrisome to say the least.

 

I don't think you fully read my post.

 

Of course the pitchers we have left are way worse than Nelson. However, 3 or 4 games where we pitch Garza for 2 innings and then throw 6 or 7 relief pitchers probably cobbles together a low ERA.

 

That would burn a bullpen during the season but there is almost zero downside of it at this point of the season and we get to basically have a DH with pinch-hitting for the pitcher every time around.

 

As for the playoffs, yeah, shifting the rotation up one peg hurts. Anderson/Davies/Woodruff is "fine" and probably not much worse than Nelson/Anderson/Davies and using Woodruff for the 1 time we'd need a 4th starter in the playoffs. Again, start Suter and play a bullpen game the 1 time we need a 4th starter and it doesn't hurt that much.

 

If we make the playoffs, I'd rather have Nelson + the full bullpen ready instead of a "bullpen game" but when playing with house money at that point it's not going to kill me and it may still work out in our favor.

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Jungmann and Guerra have both had success in the big leagues fairly recently. Wilkerson is no kid either and he's has nothing to prove in the minors. Any or some combo of those 3 makes sense as they could be in the mix in 2018 in some capacity. Garza' s had his chance and didn't respond and will be gone.
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I see your point on Nelson, but the quality of pitching we will see for 6-7 innings for the 3-4 turns he'd have remaining is far different with Nelson than a grab bag of Garza/Guerra/Jungmann/Wilkerson/Jeffress. It's nice having extra arms to allow for quick hooks, but I'd rather those guys get paid to have a dance contest in the bullpen than throwing meaningful pitches. And that doesn't even consider any postseason potential. Davies/Anderson were pitching anyway. Woodruff(who's still very young) would have been our 4. Now he's going to be relied on to be our 3rd pitcher in any postseason game...and we really don't have a 4th one. And you don't get expanded rosters in playoffs.

 

That also doesn't consider the risk that Nelson doesn't return fully to form from the injury. Shoulder injuries are worrisome to say the least.

 

I don't think you fully read my post.

 

Of course the pitchers we have left are way worse than Nelson. However, 3 or 4 games where we pitch Garza for 2 innings and then throw 6 or 7 relief pitchers probably cobbles together a low ERA.

 

That would burn a bullpen during the season but there is almost zero downside of it at this point of the season and we get to basically have a DH with pinch-hitting for the pitcher every time around.

 

As for the playoffs, yeah, shifting the rotation up one peg hurts. Anderson/Davies/Woodruff is "fine" and probably not much worse than Nelson/Anderson/Davies and using Woodruff for the 1 time we'd need a 4th starter in the playoffs. Again, start Suter and play a bullpen game and it doesn't hurt that much.

 

If we make the playoffs, I'd rather have Nelson + the full bullpen ready instead of a "bullpen game" but when playing with house money at that point it's not going to kill me and it may still work out in our favor.

 

Oh I read your post and I get it. We have the quantity of arms to be able to pitch a bunch of guys 2 innings a piece and not be overworked, that's the crux of your point. The part I'm not with you on, is you seem fairly certain that guys like Guerra/Garza/Jeffress/etc are likely to put together a low ERA and pitch to a similar quality that Jimmy would give us in 6-7 innings. It is probably more likely than not that Guerra allows at least 1 HR in 2-3 innings of work. People seem very convinced that Garza is a sure thing to buzz through an order once, but he's been hit around in the 1st and 2nd inning often enough this season. And in your type of game, you are probably looking at having to use at least one of Drake/Torres at some point. Enough said. The extra offense from PH twice likely doesn't make up for the extra runs those guys give up compared to Jimmy.

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I see your point on Nelson, but the quality of pitching we will see for 6-7 innings for the 3-4 turns he'd have remaining is far different with Nelson than a grab bag of Garza/Guerra/Jungmann/Wilkerson/Jeffress. It's nice having extra arms to allow for quick hooks, but I'd rather those guys get paid to have a dance contest in the bullpen than throwing meaningful pitches. And that doesn't even consider any postseason potential. Davies/Anderson were pitching anyway. Woodruff(who's still very young) would have been our 4. Now he's going to be relied on to be our 3rd pitcher in any postseason game...and we really don't have a 4th one. And you don't get expanded rosters in playoffs.

 

That also doesn't consider the risk that Nelson doesn't return fully to form from the injury. Shoulder injuries are worrisome to say the least.

 

I don't think you fully read my post.

 

Of course the pitchers we have left are way worse than Nelson. However, 3 or 4 games where we pitch Garza for 2 innings and then throw 6 or 7 relief pitchers probably cobbles together a low ERA.

 

That would burn a bullpen during the season but there is almost zero downside of it at this point of the season and we get to basically have a DH with pinch-hitting for the pitcher every time around.

 

As for the playoffs, yeah, shifting the rotation up one peg hurts. Anderson/Davies/Woodruff is "fine" and probably not much worse than Nelson/Anderson/Davies and using Woodruff for the 1 time we'd need a 4th starter in the playoffs. Again, start Suter and play a bullpen game and it doesn't hurt that much.

 

If we make the playoffs, I'd rather have Nelson + the full bullpen ready instead of a "bullpen game" but when playing with house money at that point it's not going to kill me and it may still work out in our favor.

 

Oh I read your post and I get it. We have the quantity of arms to be able to pitch a bunch of guys 2 innings a piece and not be overworked, that's the crux of your point. The part I'm not with you on, is you seem fairly certain that guys like Guerra/Garza/Jeffress/etc are likely to put together a low ERA and pitch to a similar quality that Jimmy would give us in 6-7 innings. It is probably more likely than not that Guerra allows at least 1 HR in 2-3 innings of work. People seem very convinced that Garza is a sure thing to buzz through an order once, but he's been hit around in the 1st and 2nd inning often enough this season. And in your type of game, you are probably looking at having to use at least one of Drake/Torres at some point. Enough said. The extra offense from PH twice likely doesn't make up for the extra runs those guys give up compared to Jimmy.

 

If you play matchups correctly it should work out pretty well.

 

Start with some of your better relievers (depending on where the other team is in the batting order) and work backwards.

 

If you get ahead 9-1 in the 3rd inning, let Garza keep pitching or if you've already dipped into the pen, let Wilkerson or Guerra go long.

 

Our bullpen depth isn't great which makes this less of a slam dunk, but the difference is generally going to be minimal between Nelson and a cobbled together set of relievers.

 

Garza's splits, time through the order (OPS against):

1st time: .655

2nd time: .860

3rd time: .994

 

I'd take 2-3 innings of .655 OPS against. That's not a ton worse than Jimmy Nelson offers.

 

I'd say just start Hader or Taylor Williams knowing that they're only going 2 innings or so, but just logistically, Garza has always started out the game, etc. and you have the benefit of letting him go 5 or 6 innings if you explode offensively in the 2nd inning or something like that.

 

How many times around an opposing team sees a pitcher is a big deal. Even Nelson isn't great the 2nd and 3rd time around. Optimally, you'd never really let your pitcher go more than once or twice around. Of course keeping a bullpen alive through 162 games you can't do that...but there is almost no downside in September except for that fact that you probably know that you're going to burn a few innings of Hader, Swarzak, etc. in a given game instead of saving them a bit for games that are tied or you have a small lead.

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*my head hurts*

 

There is no possible chance that pitching the bull pen or some other form of 9 innings of hellball from this point on will have better results than Jimmy Nelson.

 

I can't buy that, makes no sense. I think it can be painted any way you want, but losing Nelson for the remainder of the season AND the playoffs if that becomes a reality is freaking major blow to any success we might have had!

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS
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