How bad has the offense been in the 2nd half?

[stoutdude04]

Thames is having a statistically worse season than Carter last season. I would look to dump him in the offseason and look to upgrade at the position or maybe consider Aguilar there.

 

Is he though?

 

April is the only thing keeping Thames from being worse than Carter last year.

 

Carter - .222/.321/.499

Thames from May-now - .207/.316/.429

 

I figured that would be true, but you can't take away a month's worth of stats when comparing the two. Now, if you think that his true line is more in line with may til now...id agree with you, but I don't think his line this year is worse than Carter's last year...yet.

[trwi7]

I figured that would be true, but you can't take away a month's worth of stats when comparing the two. Now, if you think that his true line is more in line with may til now...id agree with you, but I don't think his line this year is worse than Carter's last year...yet.

 

I took away Thames' best month and then took away Carter's best month (conveniently also in April) and Carter still out-produced him. I guess what I'm saying is, what's the real Thames? The 103 plate appearances in April where he's Babe Ruth or the 1,000 over the rest of his career where he's below replacement level? Since he's 31, I doubt he's getting better than what he is now, so he's probably the replacement level or below guy.

[Bombers]

I'd go Arcia, Phillips, Braun, Shaw, Santana, Pina, Thames, Villar

I'd go Arcia, Walker, Santana, Shaw, Braun, Phillips, Pina, Aguilar

Or

Phillips, Santana, Shaw, Walker, Braun, Arcia, Aguilar, Pina

 

I also agree with picking a lineup and running with it for a little bit. I feel Counsell tinkers with it daily.

[brewcrewdue80]

It's just been brutal to see after the way the O went til the ASB. Counsell hasnt put together regular lineups and Braun has killed consistency with his poor bat this half.

Walker, Braun, Santana, Shaw, Arcia, 1b, Pina, Broxton. Set it and forget it.

 

Having the L/R bats this season and implementing the every other order has meant constant change of lineups putting a guy 2slots or more ahead where they should bat

[adambr2]

One thing that has hampered the offense is a lack of a star player in the lineup. Back in the Prince/Braun days, when Braun was still Braun, those two were so good that they generally kept us out of any prolonged slumps like what we're seeing right now.

 

We just don't have that anymore, anywhere. Let's be honest about Braun -- he isn't the star he once was. Shaw was the closest to it this year, and he's still a very nice hitter, but predictably there's been somewhat of a regression in the second half.

 

We have no great hitters in our lineup, and 3 good ones -- Braun, Shaw, and Santana. Literally everyone else in our lineup is either a marginal platoon player, or a regular because of defensive skills, like Arcia.

 

They really need guys like Hiura and Lutz to hit as well as advertised and advance quickly. Our farm was supposed to be loaded with potentially great hitters, but results this year, in particular at High A Carolina were very disappointing as far as that goes.

[rcc]

The team has one bonafide superstar and that is Braun who isn't playing like one anymore. Stearns didn't go out and get a superstar slugger who would command $20/year. He signed Thames and traded for Shaw along with minor leaguers. Thames was a superstar for a couple of months. He signed Walker.

 

Shaw is an everyday third baseman hitting well but has slowed down since the AS Game and part of that is due to getting hit in the neck and fouling pitches off his foot twice. He is banged up and instead of complaining and going on the DL he took a day off and was right back out there. Aguilar has hit well. Pina has hit well. Everyone else has hit well at times.

 

Milwaukee is a small market team with good players and one star making the big bucks and one under achieving pitcher making the big bucks. The latter should be gone after this year. The other will probably retire a Brewer because no other team will pay him the big contract.

[KeithStone53151]

As much as I've harped in this thread and others about shuffling the lineup like crazy, this is one of few times I generally agree with Counsel's lineup. The only weird thing is Thames leading off, and it might be in an effort to get in Lackey's head early and get him off his game. Lackey's childishness from earlier this season in regards to Thames is well documented.

[Boomer5]

My concern isn't the major league club, it's that our hitting in the minors has been much of the same. Other than Brinson's ranking and Hiura, I'm not seeing a single hitter that I'm seeing as an upgrade over our current group.

 

Much has been made of the prospects acquired but most are either not panning out and certainly we have no Braun/Fielder and I'm not thinking we have a Hart/Weeks either.

[Boomer5]

One thing that has hampered the offense is a lack of a star player in the lineup. Back in the Prince/Braun days, when Braun was still Braun, those two were so good that they generally kept us out of any prolonged slumps like what we're seeing right now.

 

We just don't have that anymore, anywhere. Let's be honest about Braun -- he isn't the star he once was. Shaw was the closest to it this year, and he's still a very nice hitter, but predictably there's been somewhat of a regression in the second half.

 

We have no great hitters in our lineup, and 3 good ones -- Braun, Shaw, and Santana. Literally everyone else in our lineup is either a marginal platoon player, or a regular because of defensive skills, like Arcia.

 

They really need guys like Hiura and Lutz to hit as well as advertised and advance quickly. Our farm was supposed to be loaded with potentially great hitters, but results this year, in particular at High A Carolina were very disappointing as far as that goes.

 

Yup. This is the real problem; the hitting prospects we picked up in all those trades are duds so far.

 

The scary part isn't Thames cooling off, we all knew he wasn't very good to be being with. Shaw has exceeded all possible projections. He is a good player but he isn't Mike Schmitt like he was in the first half. He had a bad 2nd half last year. He looks like a bowling pin so I'm wondering maybe it's a conditioning issue?

 

As for the minors, Diaz and Ray were supposed to be megastars and that isn't happening.

 

Hiura looks good so far as has Lutz.

[KeithStone53151]

My concern isn't the major league club, it's that our hitting in the minors has been much of the same. Other than Brinson's ranking and Hiura, I'm not seeing a single hitter that I'm seeing as an upgrade over our current group.

 

Much has been made of the prospects acquired but most are either not panning out and certainly we have no Braun/Fielder and I'm not thinking we have a Hart/Weeks either.

 

Many of our high end prospects are in their teens or very very early twenties. Patience.....

[The stache]

Outfield should be Santana in left, Phillips in center, and Brinson in right. Santana is God awful, defensively, but his impact can be minimized, somewhat, in left. Put Braun at first base. He has to run less, no walls to run into, or nearly as many balls to dive for. As long as he can avoid collisions, or getting stepped on by base runners, it should help him stay healthier, which means his .300 bat is in the lineup more often. He needs to be third in the batting order every day.

 

Trade Perez and Thames, and pray we get something in return. There's a reason why Thames couldn't make it in the Majors the first time, and now that he's been back, pitchers have him figured out. He's driven in a whopping 54 runs in 489 PAs, and 28 of those came from his stepping on home plate after a home run. That means he's driven in 26 ducks on the pond otherwise. That's terrible. His defense is an abomination. Overall, he's a 0.8 WAR player, the same an oft injured Ryan Braun has put up (before last night) in 152 fewer PAs. Since May 1st, he's hit .207 with a .745 OBP. The OBP is only respectable because of the 48 walks he's drawn over that time (against 123 Ks). In the last month, though, he's fallen off a cliff. August 6th to September 6th, he's hitting .181 with a .263 OBP, and a .417 SLG.

[benji]

I agree 1b needs an upgrade

 

 

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[homer]

Don't have time to look but I think they are seeing a lot of pitches. Just not getting a walk or a hit as an end result.

 

Also don't have time to look, but curious what their OBP is with 2 strikes. As you said, I think for the most part they seem to see enough pitches. But then chase once they have 2 strikes. More walks are a cure to so many problems.

 

 

8th in all of baseball in pitches per plate appearance:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017-pitches-batting.shtml

 

1st in the NL

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2017-pitches-batting.shtml

[nate82]

Outfield should be Santana in left, Phillips in center, and Brinson in right. Santana is God awful, defensively, but his impact can be minimized, somewhat, in left. Put Braun at first base. He has to run less, no walls to run into, or nearly as many balls to dive for. As long as he can avoid collisions, or getting stepped on by base runners, it should help him stay healthier, which means his .300 bat is in the lineup more often. He needs to be third in the batting order every day.

 

Trade Perez and Thames, and pray we get something in return. There's a reason why Thames couldn't make it in the Majors the first time, and now that he's been back, pitchers have him figured out. He's driven in a whopping 54 runs in 489 PAs, and 28 of those came from his stepping on home plate after a home run. That means he's driven in 26 ducks on the pond otherwise. That's terrible. His defense is an abomination. Overall, he's a 0.8 WAR player, the same an oft injured Ryan Braun has put up (before last night) in 152 fewer PAs. Since May 1st, he's hit .207 with a .745 OBP. The OBP is only respectable because of the 48 walks he's drawn over that time (against 123 Ks). In the last month, though, he's fallen off a cliff. August 6th to September 6th, he's hitting .181 with a .263 OBP, and a .417 SLG.

 

If the NL had the DH you could rotate Braun, Thames, and Aguilar at 1B and DH that would be ideal with the current roster and then just play the younger players in the OF.

 

Looking at FA this off season the cheapest options to potentially upgrade 1B would be Frazier and I am not sure that is really an upgrade. The best upgrade is probably just platooning Thames and Braun at 1B and seeing what you can get for Aguillar in the off season. Braun really does need to move to 1B if the NL is not going to have the DH next year. Braun is just not an OF anymore or at least not an everyday one.

 

Thames is a Stearns guy and I don't see him trading Thames this coming off season. Aguillar though could be moved but I am not sure what the Brewers could get for him in a trade probably not all that much maybe someone in the low minors but that is about it.

 

If the NL had the DH I would go after Moustakas and have him play 3B and move Shaw to 1B and have Braun and Thames platoon at DH. Which then you could move Santana to LF and have an OF of Brinson, Phillips, and Broxton. That is a rather fast OF other than Santana in LF defensively and this would be a rather big upgrade for the Brewers both in the OF and in the IF in terms of defense.

 

I think you could possibly get Moustakas at about $15-18m annually for 5-6 years which the last three years is more than likely dead money so you would have to be confident in the Brewers competing in the next 1-3 years as the final 2-3 years on that contract are probably going to be brutal.

[gregmag]

Outfield should be Santana in left, Phillips in center, and Brinson in right. Santana is God awful, defensively, but his impact can be minimized, somewhat, in left. Put Braun at first base. He has to run less, no walls to run into, or nearly as many balls to dive for. As long as he can avoid collisions, or getting stepped on by base runners, it should help him stay healthier, which means his .300 bat is in the lineup more often. He needs to be third in the batting order every day.

 

Trade Perez and Thames, and pray we get something in return. There's a reason why Thames couldn't make it in the Majors the first time, and now that he's been back, pitchers have him figured out. He's driven in a whopping 54 runs in 489 PAs, and 28 of those came from his stepping on home plate after a home run. That means he's driven in 26 ducks on the pond otherwise. That's terrible. His defense is an abomination. Overall, he's a 0.8 WAR player, the same an oft injured Ryan Braun has put up (before last night) in 152 fewer PAs. Since May 1st, he's hit .207 with a .745 OBP. The OBP is only respectable because of the 48 walks he's drawn over that time (against 123 Ks). In the last month, though, he's fallen off a cliff. August 6th to September 6th, he's hitting .181 with a .263 OBP, and a .417 SLG.

I think this is really good reasoning, though I don't agree with all of the bottom lines. I've been pushing for Braun at 1b for years, mainly as you say because of the OF talent we have coming up. If we're stuck with Braun, make his defensive life as low-impact as possible. Perez has warts, but his diversity makes him very useful, so I don't see pushing to trade him.

 

However, I think there's a deeper question that we have to answer before we decide on a strategy. Who are these guys, really? We're talking about the second half as if the first half didn't happen. Everything happened. The thesis that pitchers figured out Thames after April is probably right, but I'm not sure it's right; I keep hearing about nagging injuries with him. Maybe in other cases some real, permanent change happened between the halves; maybe for example Braun is just toast.

Really, though, you have to look at the aggregate information. What guys did in the first half is relevant. What they've done earlier in their careers is relevant.

 

Based on all the information we have, I'm pretty comfortable rolling with players already on the roster. c Pina and pick a second guy from among what we have, 1b Braun or Aguilar, 2b ????, could be Villar and/or Walker and/or Dubon, but that's the shakiest position, 3b Shaw, ss Arcia, of rotation of Santana, Brinson, Phillips, Broxton in a reduced role, with Perez continuing as the super-utility guy. In the offseason I'd be looking for a Shaw-like undervalued everyday 2b (please don't mention the G word, I said "everyday") and an OF upgrade over Broxton.

[shanedog19]

Does anybody have our record when the opponent scores first? I can't remember the last time the crew won when the opponent was the first to score, it HAS to be a very low number of wins.

[FVBrewerFan]

Does anybody have our record when the opponent scores first?

 

Fixed

[young guns]

All the way back to sunday. Cubs scored on that error that was ruoed a double.