2018 Second Baseman

[balsamlaker]

How much of a chance will Dubon have of earning the second base job next spring?

[trwi7]

Don't know but he's not a good hitter and I don't really understand why he's considered anything more than a utility guy.

[jerichoholicninja]

Not taking any injuries or trades of current players into consideration, 0%. Maybe less.

[dacbrewers]

Dubon is only 22 and is close to a .300 minor league hitter over his career...I wouldn't count him out yet. Pretty young for AAA.

[trwi7]

Dubon is only 22 and is close to a .300 minor league hitter over his career...I wouldn't count him out yet. Pretty young for AAA.

 

No power and doesn't walk and he's 23, which isn't particularly young. He's Perez without the power. He's going to need to hit .300 to post a passable OBP.

[dacbrewers]

23 is young for AAA. He is -4.4 years younger than the average AAA age.

[trwi7]

23 is young for AAA. He is -4.4 years younger than the average AAA age.

 

Because you have a bunch of AAAA players in AAA. Guys like Nieuwenhuis, Dillard, Blazek, De Jesus, Colabello and Noonan are on our AAA roster. It's like that all around the league. That raises the average age to like 27.

 

Unless a prospect got hurt or something and lost development time, they should be in AAA by 23 and Dubon hit terribly this year.

[AdvantageSchneider]

He'll be up with the big league team next year. He won't be playing second base though. CC will put him at first or CF or Catcher.

[3and2Fastball]

Honestly I would roll with Villar as the 2B in 2018 with hopes that he an return to '16 offensive production and/or hope that Hiura is ready by 2019

 

Villar has shown flashes in the last month that he is well worth giving more chances to. The talent is extremely high with Villar

[Lathund]

Dubon is only 22 and is close to a .300 minor league hitter over his career...I wouldn't count him out yet. Pretty young for AAA.

 

No power and doesn't walk and he's 23, which isn't particularly young. He's Perez without the power. He's going to need to hit .300 to post a passable OBP.

 

Power is something that can come later on. Not saying it's guaranteed to do so, but it certainly can and does for some. Perez, since you brought him up, has a .34 higher SLG in the majors compared to the minors, despite a .21 lower BA. So he was Hernan Perez without the power too as a minor leaguer.

 

And FWIW, minor league totals:

Perez: .264/.305/.359

Dubon: .297/.349/.402

 

This isn't me suggesting he's going to be a great 2B, in fact I'd say he profiles better at SS where we don't have a vacancy at the moment. But I also think it's far too early to dismiss him. I'd go with Villar as the starting 2B next year, with a relatively short leash. But I'd be hoping to see Dubon up at some point as the 2B/SS backup, as well as looking into his ability to cover 3B/CF as well if needed, even if not as the primary backup. He has done so briefly in the past, not sure with what proficiency though.

[torts]

bring back Walker on a 2 year deal

[CheezWizHed]

Perez, since you brought him up, has a .34 higher SLG in the majors compared to the minors, despite a .21 lower BA. So he was Hernan Perez without the power too as a minor leaguer.

 

I think you mean .034 and .021. It would be awesome if any player increased their AVE .210 or increased their slugging .340.

[Lathund]

He's an ace closer who can play CF and SS as well, so why couldn't he also raise his BA by .210?!?

 

Numbers, decimal points... does it matter exactly where one puts them as long as they're in there, somewhere?

[And That]

Unless a prospect got hurt or something and lost development time, they should be in AAA by 23 and Dubon hit terribly this year.

I've never agreed too much with the "a prospect needs to be x years old in y level of ball to be a prospect" - there are so many factors that go into each and every player's development that it is impossible to assign any sort of firm age-to-level meter for legit MLB prospects in general. Yes, very high end prospects tend to hit levels earlier but perfectly good, MLB-caliber guys like Dubon aren't always -4 or -5 years old for their level.

 

Dubon will still be 23 when next season starts. Technically this was his 22 year old season.

 

As for Dubon hitting terribly, he had a wRC+ of 90 with CS. Below average, sure, but "terrible" is hyperbolic.

 

Edit: Just as a current Brewers reference, Neil Walker played in AAA as a 22-23 year old*. As a 22 year old, his wRC+ was 83, worse than Dubon. In his 23 year old AAA season, his wRC+ was 114.

 

With the acknowledgment that their offensive/defensive skill sets are quite different, I'll take Neil Walker upside from Dubon.

 

*He also made a brief appearance as a 21 year old, but his 2007 AAA season would actually be correctly described as "terrible."

[JohnBriggs12]

23 is young for AAA. He is -4.4 years younger than the average AAA age.

 

For an actual prospect 23 is not exactly young in AAA. By comparison, Arcia, Villar and Perez had all seen considerable major league time by the time they were Dubon's age. His 2017 offensive stats were less then stellar.

 

Dubon has approximately 2,000 professional plate appearances. At best he's a B level prospect. His fine half season at AA in 2016, looks more like an outlier. Think Luis Sardinas II.

[pacopete4]

I was just looking at that Isan Diaz stats because it felt as though he could be the next big thing at one point. Wow am I glad we got Chase Anderson from the Dbacks because he might be the only people that does anything.

 

Back on point more, I believe that Villar should be the 2018 second basemen. He has really shown flashed of his 2016 self over the last month or so. A guy like Walker is nice because he gives you that professional at bat but I just don't want to pay that contract for what he provides.

[JohnBriggs12]

Honestly I would roll with Villar as the 2B in 2018 with hopes that he an return to '16 offensive production and/or hope that Hiura is ready by 2019

 

Villar has shown flashes in the last month that he is well worth giving more chances to. The talent is extremely high with Villar

 

You are overrating the talent with Villar. He was never a top 75 prospect as a minor leaguer. He swings and misses a lot. Defensively he's been a liability wherever he's been. He's not as good as he was in 2016 and probably not as bad as he's been this year but that leaves you with a mediocre 2B who'll hit around .250 with 15 HR and 175 K's and below average defense. They need to aim higher.

[JohnBriggs12]

bring back Walker on a 2 year deal

 

Totally agree. Walker turns 32 on Sunday. He's not going to command anything close to his current $17 million per year. Heck, he'll be lucky to get that over the 2 years. So that's $8.5 million per year. Villar is likely to still command $3 million in arbitration, so for an extra $5.5 million you get a much more reliable professional bat on a team that swings and misses way too much as it is. I wish they still had Gennett myself, but Walker as a bridge is a fine alternative, with Perez seeing plenty of action there too. If Walker signs elsewhere, I'd prefer a Sogard/Perez platoon over Villar. Sogard won't command much.

[FVBrewerFan]

I would continue to do what they're doing right now. Start the season with both Villar and Walker. Villar can also play other positions (not well, but can play them) and Walker can play some 1B- especially if they move Thames. I'm not a huge Villar fan, but sometimes a player makes adjustments. If he can even get close to his 2016 form, that would work. He's young enough and cheap enough to find out.

 

Dubon can wait, let's see how he does in the 1st half of the season in CS. I'm not ready to say he can be a starting 2B in MLB, or if he's the second coming of Sardinas. He just turned 23, so we have a little more time to find out.

[pacopete4]

If the 2018 second basemen involved moving Thames, I am all for a signing of Walker. That would allow Walker to play a bit at 1B while Villar would get a lot at 2B. This would allow the Brewers to go into 2018 and tell Villar to focus on playing all over. Get reps at 3B/SS/2B and the OF. Put him all over the place and try to drive up his value. Yeah, we complain a lot about his defense here but if we can fool just one team, we have a good trading piece if he hits and runs anywhere near his 2016 numbers. I'd rather give Villar that utility guy name than Perez. We know what Perez is. His inability to get on base is just a killer to any lineup he's in.

[3and2Fastball]

For an actual prospect 23 is not exactly young in AAA. By comparison, Arcia, Villar and Perez had all seen considerable major league time by the time they were Dubon's age.

 

Dubon is from Honduras. Arcia is a Venezuelan Shortstop. A shortstop in Venezeula is sort of like being a sharpshooting hockey player in Canada, or a youth Jazz prodigy in New York City. Villar came up through the meat-grinder that is the Dominican Republic developmental system. Those guys have tons more developmental reps than Dubon. Perez I don't believe was groomed as an elite Venezeulan Shortstop like Arcia but still grew up in that country playing high level ball.... the difference is like comparing high school Baseball in California to high school Baseball in Alaska, literally. Now I understand Dubon moved to the USA at 16 or so but still he was way behind

 

 

You are overrating the talent with Villar.

 

Not trying to be too much of a smart-ass, but I can confidently say that Villar's MLB ceiling is at least a .285 BA with a .369 OBP and 60 stolen bases. That is a lot of production. He has plus speed and athleticism. I would be hesitant to give up on him after a down year. He hit .364 in August. It is reasonable to assume that he has made some adjustments after MLB made adjustments on him in the 1st half

[tmwiese55]

I think you just have to go with Villar again since he's finishing strong (as of now). If he crashes at the beginning of next year again then pull up the Dubon's or whoever you see fit and see how they do. Very good chance this year's #1 pick is up by 2019 the way he's hit anyway. If Villar returns to form you're good. If he doesn't you have prospects to try next year and what looks like our best hitting prospect coming just after that. Something will work out with that path.

 

ETA: and if somehow you can get Walker back on a reasonable 2 year deal to backup all IF spots besides SS that would be great too.

[Roderick]

I would continue to do what they're doing right now. Start the season with both Villar and Walker. Villar can also play other positions (not well, but can play them) and Walker can play some 1B- especially if they move Thames. I'm not a huge Villar fan, but sometimes a player makes adjustments. If he can even get close to his 2016 form, that would work. He's young enough and cheap enough to find out.

 

Dubon can wait, let's see how he does in the 1st half of the season in CS. I'm not ready to say he can be a starting 2B in MLB, or if he's the second coming of Sardinas. He just turned 23, so we have a little more time to find out.

 

This is pretty much my thoughts, so I will just ditto. I would say bring Walker back unless they want to spend major bucks on a pitcher and need the money for that, but I would shed Thames $ first if possible.

 

I would stress to Villar that if he wants to stick with the team, I want him for the obp and not the slugging and hope that will return to his first half of 2016 at bats.

 

That way he can get on base, and we can go back to complaining about his baserunning.

[tmwiese55]

Walker as vs RHP 1B instead of Thames could at least help adding a less strikeout prone player. Not sure if they'd be ready to give up on Thames though. Of course the league adjusted to him, hopefully he can plug the leaks for next year. He still gets a ton of walks so if you can at 265/360 with 25ish HRs only playing vs righties he's not too bad of a platoon guy. But if you're getting 220/310 then not so much.

[3and2Fastball]

Walker?

 

Neil Walker is a free agent after this season. You guys willing to pay him $15 million a year for 2-3 years? If we are gonna spend money lets go after pitching. I like Walker but he's been a 1.5 WAR guy this season