Verlander to Houston (2017 Re-visited)

[reillymcshane]

Houston gets Verlander for prospects Daz Cameron, Franklin Perez, and Jake Rogers.

 

Perez was ranked #46 on the MLB Pipeline Top 100 (he's only 19 and has reached AA already), while Cameron - the son of Mike Cameron - is a very talented (but young and raw) player. He is probably more of a fringy Top 100 guy at this point - but he the tools are there. Rogers - a catcher - was ranked #11 on Houston's Top 30 list - so he's not a bad prospect.

 

Detroit will pay around $10M of Verlander's salary.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/08/astros-to-acquire-justin-verlander.html

 

Verlander reportedly was hoping that he would get traded to the Cubs.

[trwi7]

Really nice return for the Tigers.

[reillymcshane]

Really nice return for the Tigers.

I agree. Very solid return considering that Houston is taking on around $60M in salary. But I think it's a good move for Houston (even if it is costly). They can use the quality arm in their rotation. And their window for winning is now - so Verlander fits right in with that window. He'll be nice arm for three potential playoff races for them.

[MadThinker88]

Fans of the Cleveland Indians say thank you.

 

While JV should be a help for the Astros staff & post season run, the Tribe has had fair amount of success against JV in his career (overall losing record) & this year (1W, 3L 8+ ERA).

[MilwaukeeDoctor]

I'm just thankful the Cubs didn't pick him. That would have been a nightmare staff to deal with for the next few years.

[MKEguy]

It's always interesting to me to see these post regular deadline trades. It seems harder to gauge how much players are valued.

 

For us, this would have been a Luis Ortiz and two others in the top 15, maybe an Erceg and Phillips type player.

[adambr2]

Really nice return for the Tigers.

I agree. Very solid return considering that Houston is taking on around $60M in salary. But I think it's a good move for Houston (even if it is costly). They can use the quality arm in their rotation. And their window for winning is now - so Verlander fits right in with that window. He'll be nice arm for three potential playoff races for them.

 

Not sure if he'll necessarily be there that long or not...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/08/justin-verlander-could-opt-out-if-traded.html

[StearnsFTW]

Wow. That's way more than I was expecting. Good for Detroit.

[Point Beer Is Best]

 

Verlander reportedly was hoping that he would get traded to the Cubs.

 

Cubs may not have had the prospects left to make that deal. Had they not dealt for Quintana, the chances that Verlander ended up in Chicago would have been much greater.

[Roderick]

Really nice return for the Tigers.

I agree. Very solid return considering that Houston is taking on around $60M in salary. But I think it's a good move for Houston (even if it is costly). They can use the quality arm in their rotation. And their window for winning is now - so Verlander fits right in with that window. He'll be nice arm for three potential playoff races for them.

 

Not sure if he'll necessarily be there that long or not...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/08/justin-verlander-could-opt-out-if-traded.html

 

It was already more than I thought Detroit would get, I don't see any way that Houston sends those kind of prospects if he also required the opt out clause.

[pacopete4]

A healthy Dodgers and Astros could make for one heck of a World Series.

[reillymcshane]

 

Verlander reportedly was hoping that he would get traded to the Cubs.

 

Cubs may not have had the prospects left to make that deal. Had they not dealt for Quintana, the chances that Verlander ended up in Chicago would have been much greater.

Correct. The package Houston gave was pretty good. Chicago has some really nice prospects at the lower level - maybe not Top 100 guys, but still some good players. They would have had to package a group of those guys to equal Houston's offer (if even possible). They've really emptied their system.

[JosephC]

This appears to me the most lop-sided trade made this year in terms of surplus value.

 

Verlander's surplus value estimate as follows. Average WAR values between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the last three years with 2017 pro-rated to cover the full season are 2.55, 5.90, 4.14 with a three year average of 4.2 (interesting that the three year average is nearly the same number as the 2017 value). I still think at his age (will be 35 right around the start of next season), there has to be the assumption that there will be some decline in performance moving forward, so I'll just go with a decline of 0.5 WAR per season. That puts his WAR value at 0.83 for the remainder of 2017, 3.7 in 2018 and 3.2 in 2019. With 1 WAR being worth 8.56 million in 2017, 9.16 million in 2018 and 9.8 million in 2019, it would put Verlander's value at 72.357 million assuming nothing happens with the vesting option year in 2020. As far as remaining salary, there's approximately 4.667 million left for this season and 28 million due in 2019 and 2020 for a total of 60.667 million. 72.357 - 60.667 = +11.69 million = Verlander's surplus value.

 

Franklin Perez is listed in the 26-50 range on both the Baseball America and MLB.com top 100 lists which puts his prospect surplus value at 31.886 million. Daz Cameron and Jake Rogers are both easy calls as "top ten organizational prospects" which puts the surplus value of each of those players at approximately 10.7 million.

 

Most recent updates at MLBTradeRumors has the Astros getting 16 million + a PTBNL OR cash considerations. Those details have already been updated a couple of times so I'm curious to see if there will be any more updates with different numbers. I'm going to assume the PTBNL will be a fringe prospect or another small cash payout but for now will assume that has a 1 million dollar value (will generally put a fringe prospect's value at 2 million but it's unlikely a cash payout would approach that number, so will just assume 1 million).

 

Astros get:

Justin Verlander = 11.69 million surplus value

16 million dollars

1 million dollars (as PTBNL/cash consideration)

Total = 28.69 million

 

Tigers get:

Franklin Perez = 31.886 million surplus value

Daz Cameron = 10.7 million surplus value

Jake Rogers = 10.7 million surplus value

Total = 53.286 million

 

Pretty much a "we're going for it" move for the Astros. This trade will obviously be worth it for them if they win the World Series. If they don't, Verlander will likely have to pitch at a 4.75 WAR value for each of the next two years for the surplus value numbers to even up, and that is pretty unlikely.

[A Swing and A Drive]

For a team like the Astros that have never won the World Series, they could probably care less if you told them they gave up too much "surplus value".

 

History says that most likely only one of those prospects pans out as a major leaguer.

 

In the meantime, the Astros just added a TOR arm with playoff experience to the best team in the AL.

 

Trade makes a ton of sense for them, IMO. Definitely a "go for it" move and rightfully so.

[LouisEly]

Remember, Michael Brantley was a PTBNL, so I wouldn't declare this a lopsided trade just yet.

 

[sarcasm]Kate Upton must love Houston, because she sure would never accept a trade to Milwaukee.[/sarcasm]

[AKCheesehead]

I kind of was hoping the cubs would get him. It would decimate what's left of their farm, and chicago could pay all that salary to a 35-36 year old Verlander with 2500+ innings already on his arm. Sure he could continue to Justin Verlander it up through those years, but then again, he may not.

[StearnsFTW]

For a team like the Astros that have never won the World Series, they could probably care less if you told them they gave up too much "surplus value".

 

History says that most likely only one of those prospects pans out as a major leaguer.

 

In the meantime, the Astros just added a TOR arm with playoff experience to the best team in the AL.

 

Trade makes a ton of sense for them, IMO. Definitely a "go for it" move and rightfully so.

 

The surplus value assigned to those prospects accounts for the likelihood that they hit, so that's already in the equation.

 

He's not a TOR arm. He's a #3 starter, but I certainly agree the upside is TOR.

 

I think this is a pretty terrible deal for Houston. A lot of risk in it for them.

 

As you said though, if they win a World Series because of it, who cares? I'm just skeptical that Verlander is the guy that pushes them over the top. Their pitching still isn't scaring anyone.

[KeithStone53151]

It isn't really a question, the cubs could not come close to matching that offer. Not remotely close. Their top 7 or 8 prospects don't have that much value. That farm is approaching angels and Orioles territory of bad.

 

This was a very good trade all around, with Detroit getting significantly more value overall.

[OnTheBlack]

Really nice return for the Tigers.

 

 

That was my thought....luckily for the Tigers Verlander has pitched quite a bit better after a really poor start. K/BB ratio has gone from 1.92 to 4.88 in the second half.

 

So they pay 10 million dollars to get back 3 intriguing prospects and get out from under most of his remaining contract. Looks like a win-win for both teams.

[adambr2]

Remember, Michael Brantley was a PTBNL, so I wouldn't declare this a lopsided trade just yet.

 

[sarcasm]Kate Upton must love Houston, because she sure would never accept a trade to Milwaukee.[/sarcasm]

 

'After the Tigers and Astros agreed on a deal, Verlander initially refused to waive his no-trade rights, Jon Morosi of MLB.com writes. Verlander wasn’t opposed to joining the Astros, but first he wanted to see if he could go to the Cubs, since he and fiancée Kate Upton like the city of Chicago. (Verlander was also interested in the Dodgers, although they weren’t actively involved in talks.) When it turned out the Tigers felt the Cubs weren’t offering enough value in a potential deal, Verlander signed off on the trade that would send him to the Astros.'

 

[sarcasm]Yeah, sounds like he was right on the cusp of waiving his NTC to come to Milwaukee.[/sarcasm]

[jerichoholicninja]

Chicago is a short drive from Milwaukee. No reason he couldn't live in Chicago and play for the Brewers like ARam did.

[adambr2]

Chicago is a short drive from Milwaukee. No reason he couldn't live in Chicago and play for the Brewers like ARam did.

 

Maybe he would have . I really don't know . I just don't know how people were assuming he would. I'm glad we didn't try to outbid that package from Houston either way.

[OnTheBlack]

Chicago is a short drive from Milwaukee. No reason he couldn't live in Chicago and play for the Brewers like ARam did.

 

Maybe he would have . I really don't know . I just don't know how people were assuming he would. I'm glad we didn't try to outbid that package from Houston either way.

 

 

I was a little surprised at how hard Verlander is still throwing. I thought he'd lost a few ticks on his fastball, but his fastball velocity is as high as it's ever been, he average slider is 88.5....so maybe it was just command and normal struggles. But with a guy who's got that many miles on his arm at that age, I guess I just assumed he was losing velo like CC did and...pretty much everyone not named Nolan Ryan before him.

 

I didn't want to see any prospects of consequence traded from this team for this year, but I do like Verlander.

 

Houston has to feel a lot better now. Just get Keuchel going, McCullers back and they should have a solid rotation heading into the playoffs.

[LouisEly]

'After the Tigers and Astros agreed on a deal, Verlander initially refused to waive his no-trade rights, Jon Morosi of MLB.com writes. Verlander wasn’t opposed to joining the Astros, but first he wanted to see if he could go to the Cubs, since he and fiancée Kate Upton like the city of Chicago. (Verlander was also interested in the Dodgers, although they weren’t actively involved in talks.) When it turned out the Tigers felt the Cubs weren’t offering enough value in a potential deal, Verlander signed off on the trade that would send him to the Astros.'

 

[sarcasm]Yeah, sounds like he was right on the cusp of waiving his NTC to come to Milwaukee.[/sarcasm]

Doesn't sound like one of the options was Milwaukee, so we won't know.

[A Swing and A Drive]

This is the kind of deal teams serious about making a deep postseason run make.

 

Franklin Perez, the headlining prospect in the trade, has been awful this season at High A.

 

Hindsight is 20/20 but history shows that adding a veteran with a long track record of success is usually a recipe for success for a playoff bound team.

 

And remember, for every 1 Ryan Braun prospect, there are 99 Mat Gamels.