Offense MIA

[Pugger]

Outside of Garza our pitching hasn't been that bad and our set -up man and closer are great. IMO the reason why we are struggling to get anything going is our putrid batting. If we don't hit a HR we have a devil of a time scoring. We lead the league in strike outs and that is one stat NOBODY wants. I have a bad feeling this isn't gonna get fixed in time to get into the post season this year. What can be done to address this problem going forward?

[MrTPlush]

Good luck fixing it. That was how this team was built and a lot of our prospects are the same way. Power and aka are a thing we have to accept. Maybe you find someone who doesn't K a lot for second base who is more OBP/contact oriented? Maybe you trade Thames and get someone with a higher AVG? Not a lot you can do. This offense is pretty set unless you start trading starter level guys away and try replacing them. I doubt that happens.

[pacopete4]

Good luck fixing it. That was how this team was built and a lot of our prospects are the same way. Power and aka are a thing we have to accept. Maybe you find someone who doesn't K a lot for second base who is more OBP/contact oriented? Maybe you trade Thames and get someone with a higher AVG? Not a lot you can do. This offense is pretty set unless you start trading starter level guys away and try replacing them. I doubt that happens.

 

This team was built this way but hasn't our last two draft picks been of a different mold? I mean, I understand that those players are a ways off but it has felt as though we have gone towards more contact, get on base types of players (Keston Hiura, Corey Ray).

 

I do agree though that this team just need to be ridden out now. Braun and Shaw need(ed) to get hot and carry this team into the post season with some help from Thames, Walker, and Santana. If Braun and Shaw don't get moving, this season will drown with them.

[3and2Fastball]

The 3 True Outcome offense is a trend across MLB. Sports Illustrated had a recent article about it https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/06/20/standstill-pace-play-cody-bellinger-clayton-kershaw

 

These trends tend to come & go and evolve over the course of time. With pitching getting better & better, analytics are evidently pointing to the lesser value of manufacturing runs (i.e. "get him on, get him over, get him in") and more to the value of waiting for the HR and trying for the HR. I personally think this is flawed, and some team with athleticism and high contact rate will exploit that flaw and overcome it especially in the postseason, similar to how the Royals did it just a few years ago.

 

In a close, low scoring game featuring the best of the best pitching, you shouldn't just hope for HR's. I think it is a completely backwards approach, but will be interested in the analytics as to why I'm wrong

[monty57]

We have a pretty good foundation for our offense going forward, but we have some holes to fill (or hope for improvement). As TPlush mentioned, we have power on the roster. We just need the other guys to get on base around them. There have been a lot of PAs that have gone to guys who have had bad seasons (Villar) are still getting their feet wet (Brinson, Phillips, Arcia), are extremely streaky (Broxton) aren't guys who can get on base (Perez) or just aren't that good (Franklin, Kirk N.).

 

There will always be some of that going on in a MLB roster, but if we can limit the "black holes" to a greater degree, we could be a more consistent offense. Brinson playing well next year and finding a 2B who can get on base could help out.

[shanedog19]

As a team we are batting .234 with RISP, good for 26th in MLB. If you want a telling stat, start there.

[pacopete4]

As a team we are batting .234 with RISP, good for 26th in MLB. If you want a telling stat, start there.

 

Yep, this team would still be leading the division if guys like Braun/Thames etc... were doing their part to knock in runs when they had opportunities. It's been quite the letdown.

[Lathund]

On the topic of TTO and Ks: I buy that it's the "best" approach, i.e if you're getting the proper tradeoff for swinging for the fences (HRs) and for patience (walks) then that can make up for, respectively, swinging strikes three and taken strike threes. And a K with the proper payoff doesn't have to be more negative than another out. Where it can fall short though is with sequencing; even a team that does this successfully, better than the Brewers, will have dry spells. That's just how it works. So it could be that it's the best way to win games over time, but not necessarily the way to maximize chances in an individual game. And it will see a lot of hot and cold streaks. That's not to say the other option is to play small ball and manufacture runs through bunts and such, there's plenty of middle ground to be had.

 

Anyway, it's not the TTO philosophy itself I'm really interested in, but rather how it pertains to the Brewers and to player acquisition. Firstly, is the TTO approach really what Stearns is going for? Clearly he values power (and speed), but power doesn't have to come only in that form. So have we acquired those type of player through specifically targeting that, or is it a consequence of "Best available player" being of that type? Perhaps one reason that Villar and Broxton were available so cheaply was the swing-and-miss aspect of their game; and the Brewers, being in rebuilding mode with the ability to take chances on guys with high upside took a shot? Broxton is unlikely to get the strikeouts truly under control, but there's tremendous upside if he does. Or perhaps this is exactly the type of players we are looking at, just looking to get better versions of them going forward? I really don't know, and it'll be interesting to see what Stearns will focus on going forward, as the team looks to become more competitive.

 

Personally I think the problem is to try and go too far in any direction. Have a tilt towards the TTO approach. Have a few of those guys in the lineup. That's probably a good thing, especially when the ball carries the way it does, and we even have a hitter-friendly park. So I'm all for that. But the problem comes when your lineup is filled with them. I don't know how to find the data, but I'd imagine that we score a very large proportion of solo HRs. We need to make sure we get more runners on base in order to pull this off.

 

Finally as a more general note: If there's a trend in baseball, there's value to be found in going against it. No guarantees that it'll be better (I mean there's usually a reason for a trend to start in the first place), but players not fitting this trend will be cheaper and more readily available.

[homer]

As a team we are batting .234 with RISP, good for 26th in MLB. If you want a telling stat, start there.

 

Hitting .249 overall (.246 with bases empty). It's not like they are a juggernaut when no one's on base.

[sveumrules]

League average K% for non pitchers is 21% so far this season. There are currently 102 qualified batters with a league average batting line, wRC+ of 100 or greater.

 

Of those 102 qualified batters with a league average batting line 61 also have a K% lower than league average so players who can hit at a league average level or above while striking out less than league average are a relatively rare commodity.

[MrTPlush]

League average K% for non pitchers is 21% so far this season. There are currently 102 qualified batters with a league average batting line, wRC+ of 100 or greater.

 

Of those 102 qualified batters with a league average batting line 61 also have a K% lower than league average so players who can hit at a league average level or above while striking out less than league average are a relatively rare commodity.

 

Which I don't think anyone would disagree with. However to put ourselves over the top and really win a lot of games we need rare commodities. That is the problem being outlined in this thread. We have a bunch of commodities that aren't so hard to find necessarily.

[3and2Fastball]

Meanwhile, TV ratings across MLB are going up. Is the game more boring? Or not?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/local-mlb-tv-ratings-shine-clouds-still-loom/

[Baldkin]

In general, seeing more pitches lead to more strikeouts, it also leads to more walks, more relief appearances for the opponents and better offense.

 

The crew has 3 guys in the top 20 in pitches per PA this season.

 

Such a stark contrast from even three years ago.

[monty57]

League average K% for non pitchers is 21% so far this season. There are currently 102 qualified batters with a league average batting line, wRC+ of 100 or greater.

 

Of those 102 qualified batters with a league average batting line 61 also have a K% lower than league average so players who can hit at a league average level or above while striking out less than league average are a relatively rare commodity.

 

Unless I'm misreading that, doesn't it mean that there are only 41 qualified batters who hit at a league average or above level while striking out at a greater than league average rate, making that an even rarer commodity?

 

In other words, it's hard to be a league average or above hitter, but even harder if you carry a high strikeout rate. Too small a sample from which to make any kind of judgement, but if it held true, then that would mean that strikeouts do matter, at least to some degree.

[JosephC]

August OBP for the 8 Brewer hitters with the most at-bats this month.

 

-Domingo Santana = .350

-Keon Broxton = .321

-Ryan Braun = .320

-Travis Shaw = .308

-Orlando Arcia = .293

-Manny Pina = .274

-Eric Thames = .272

-Hernan Perez = .259

 

I don't necessarily think it's about strikeouts. The NL team that's scored the most runs this month are the Cubs with 185. As a team they've struck out 265 times in August. The Brewers are dead last in scoring runs in the NL this month with 97. As a team they've struck out 267 times. It's not necessarily about making non-productive outs, it's about making outs and the Brewers have done that at way too high a rate this month. Having half the bats (+ a pitcher) with OBP's under .300 is almost a sure way to not score many runs.

 

Some of the other bats have been much better in August

-Jonathan Villar = .365

-Neil Walker = .404

-Jesus Aguilar = .286

-Eric Sogard = .404

-Stephen Vogt = .318

 

Obviously Walker wasn't here the whole month which is why he wasn't in the top 8. Pretty amazing that Villar figured out to get on base this late in the year when his monthly OBP's from April through July were consistently bad (.267/.301/.282/.258)...now it looks like Counsell needs to figure out how to get him more at-bats. First base has been kind of an offensive black hole this month. Aguilar has OPS'ed a very respectable .821 this month, but the combination of his and Thames OBP is truly ugly.

[Pugger]

I guess I just wish we were a little more disciplined at the plate. Its hard to move guys over and/or get runners in from 3rd with less than 2 outs when you can't put the darn ball in play...

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers need professional hitters. I've never seen Braun's plate discipline worse than it is now. Maybe it's been all the off days. They should seriously consider signing Walker in the offseason. Shaw's getting pitches to hit but more often than not he's taking them or fouling them off. Santana's got flaws but he's been driving the ball but the other guys need to step up.

[JosephC]

As far as the Brewers swinging at non-strikes, Fangraphs has numbers for the last 30 days and over that period the Brewers have swung at 30.8% of pitches that have been outside the strike zone. That is below average but not terrible, 11 teams rank below that (Braves are the worst at 35.0%). But when the Brewers do swing at pitches outside of the strike zone, the O-Contact % (pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone/swings on pitches outside the zone) has been the fourth worst in baseball. Interestingly enough, the team's Z-Contact % (pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone/swings on pitches inside the zone) over the last 30 days has been the worst in baseball. So it's not like they are swinging at too may bad pitches, but rather swinging and missing too many pitches both inside and outside of the strikezone. Maybe most of the hitters need a set of Sogard glasses?

[jerichoholicninja]

It's the Rickie Weeks paradox. Taking pitches, fouling off pitches, and working the count is great. But is it really that great when you're taking a fastball down the middle for strike one every time up?

[Invader3K]

The Brewers need professional hitters. I've never seen Braun's plate discipline worse than it is now. Maybe it's been all the off days. They should seriously consider signing Walker in the offseason. Shaw's getting pitches to hit but more often than not he's taking them or fouling them off. Santana's got flaws but he's been driving the ball but the other guys need to step up.

 

As one of the biggest Braun fans/apologists around, he is really worrying me right now. Lately he hasn't looked like the Ryan Braun we've been used to for the past 10 years. There have been some plate appearances where he's let fast balls go by, that normally he'd send out of the park. I don't know if its age or injuries...or maybe just some rust from all the off days this season.

[tmwiese55]

Braun's slumped the last two weeks but he was as hot as we've ever seen him leading up to it. Unless there's yet another injury lingering that he's playing through I wouldn't be worried about him bouncing back soon.

 

I posted JS article on here a couple weeks ago about his season. Hard hit %, exit velocity, etc basically saying it's been his second best year of his career but with horrible luck. Of course, that's dismissing the missed games due DL stints. They're just talking about his performance when he's actually played.

 

ETA: Found the article, http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2017/08/16/notes-hard-hit-balls-dropping-ryan-braun/570475001/

[pacopete4]

I thought this was relevant to the Braun discussion as I found it crazy:

 

Ryan Braun remains as the last key veteran from the Brewers’ 2014 club who’s still with the team as it makes another run at contention in 2017, and he’s happy to still be in Milwaukee, he tells MLB.com’s Tracy Ringolsby. Rumors about being traded to the Dodgers last winter makes Braun feel especially grateful, he says. “Last year, obviously, I was close to getting traded,” says Braun. “When it didn’t happen, obviously, it makes me that much more appreciative of however much time I do end up spending here.” Braun adds that it isn’t lost on him that after him, the position player who has been with the Brewers the longest is Domingo Santana, who first suited up with Milwaukee a little over two years ago this week.

[shanedog19]

With the offense as inconsistent as it is, I think Aguilar should get more time at first base. He's been a pretty big force when he's in there.

[Pugger]

With the offense as inconsistent as it is, I think Aguilar should get more time at first base. He's been a pretty big force when he's in there.

 

Yes, I don't know why he isn't getting more playing time. Right now he looks better than Thames does.