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2018 Outfield


pacopete4

Right now:

 

LF- Braun

CF- Broxton

RF- Santana

 

Brinson and Phillips waiting in the wings.

 

I bring this up because Braun is a 120-130 game player when completely healthy. Brinson has been injury prone his entire career so far, only playing in 100+ games twice. Maybe we do keep Broxton and Phillips and just let the healthiest players play?

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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I'd guess they trade Broxton for the best they can get in the offseason. And #ownthefuture with Brinson/Phillips sharing CF and filling in for Braun's planned off days and inevitable stints on the DL.

 

Unless a trade comes up, such as for a higher end SP, that would require using Phillips in the trade then they can keep Keon. I don't see that happening though.

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Stearns has always tried making guys compete for spots. I could see him keeping all 3 for that reason. All 3 guys are tremendously talented...going into the offseason knowing they have every opportunity to earn the starting CF job but also knowing the other 2 guys are pretty damn good. If that doesn't motivate you to work like crazy in the offseason, I don't know what does.
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Saw a Heyman blurb about the Brewers getting offers for Santana and possibility of offseason trade. At first I thought I was completely against that but if the return could net a top starting pitcher I think I'd listen. Braun Broxton Phillips and Brinson with Perez as 5th OFer.
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FYI -

Santana Free Agent in 2022

Broxton 2023

Brinson, Phillips....after that.

 

So they have all of them controlled for a while. Really don't have to do anything if they don't want to.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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I really don't see any additions or subtractions from the current outfield for 2018. Maybe Broxton is traded but I just can't see them giving CF to Brinson or Phillips unless they come up and tear up September and Brinson is almost a certainly not going to play anymore this year.

 

These guys don't need to tear it up in September to have a legit chance at a starting job to start 2018. They've done what they needed to in AAA. They could show plenty in spring training along with their 2017 AAA production to warrant the starting gig. A good showing would certainly help things, but they will absolutely base their decision on more than one month of likely sporadic September at bats.

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Questions remain about whether Brinson can stay healthy and whether either Brinson or Phillips can hit MLB pitching

 

Braun of course will likely never play a full season without injury again

 

I'd try to figure out a way to have the starting OF be Braun, Brinson, Phillips but I wouldn't get rid of Santana or Broxton just yet

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!
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I'd guess they trade Broxton for the best they can get in the offseason. And #ownthefuture with Brinson/Phillips sharing CF and filling in for Braun's planned off days and inevitable stints on the DL.

 

Unless a trade comes up, such as for a higher end SP, that would require using Phillips in the trade then they can keep Keon. I don't see that happening though.

 

This is pretty much where I'm at. Braun, Brinson, Santana with Phillips giving each a day off a week versus righties. That would be 136 games each for the starters & 78 for Maverick assuming perfect health (which we know isn't happening). If that truly ends up being the alignment Brett should have no problem getting 100 starts & around 450-500 PAs with injuries, pinch hitting & games where Braun/Santana DH.

 

I wouldn't actively shop Santana but if some team comes in & blows Stearns away with an offer that includes talented, controllable starting pitching I'd pull the trigger on that & keep Keon instead.

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Questions remain about whether Brinson can stay healthy and whether either Brinson or Phillips can hit MLB pitching

 

Braun of course will likely never play a full season without injury again

 

I'd try to figure out a way to have the starting OF be Braun, Brinson, Phillips but I wouldn't get rid of Santana or Broxton just yet

I'm on the fence when it comes to keeping or shopping Santana. I love what he brings to the offense, he's young, and I feel he has yet to reach his ceiling. His defense on the other hand... If he gets traded, i would want it to be after the 2018 season. I would imagine Clark, Ray, Harrison, Taylor, and maybe Lutz (bit of a stretch) will be knocking on the door to the majors by then.

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My ideal would be to trade Broxton and go with Braun Santana and whoever wins the job between Brinson and Phillips. Broxton is just too streaky and when he's down he's so down that he gets himself sent down to AAA. Neither Brinson nor Phillips have anything left to prove in AAA so sending them back there would do them no good. If you need to platoon them for now then do that. Or just use one as the 4th outfielder and give them 2-3 starts a week.
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I wouldn't trade any of them and I have no problem having the two rookies start the season as bench players. Braun, Santana, Broxton, Brinson, Phillips and I'd feel pretty good about those five. Love the fact that Brinson and Phillips can play all the outfield spots and one is a lefty bat and the other is a righty bat. Maybe Braun stays healthy and Broxton gets off to a huge start and earns 150+ start in centerfield, but my gut feeling is that there will be enough at-bats for all five of them.
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i'd be ok trading Santana as long as we get good value. Khris Davis is a similar player to Santana (good power/offense, weak defense) and I was underwhelmed with who we got back. The trade looks even worse now that Nottingham has stagnated in AA.

 

We need TOR pitching prospect. Just not sure Santana would net that in a trade.

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I wouldn't trade any of them and I have no problem having the two rookies start the season as bench players. Braun, Santana, Broxton, Brinson, Phillips and I'd feel pretty good about those five.

 

There just aren't enough starts for 5 starting quality players among those three spots. Hopefully Broxton ends the season well and they can get a decent return for him. Then Braun, Brinson, Phillips and Santana in the OF makes a pretty quality group. Brinson and Phillips can tandem and give Braun/Santana breaks or injury replacements.

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The problem in my mind is this. Phillips and Brinson need regular at bats, not be in a 4th or 5th OF role. They need to play every day to begin to figure out MLB pitching. I don't want either of them to be on the bench 3 or 4 days a week, with an occasional pinch hit appearance thrown in the mix.

 

They NEED regular at bats...

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS
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Looking back at the Brewers yearly splits their outfielders consistently accumulate over 2,000 plate appearances a season. With careful lineup management & inevitable Braun injuries it should be no problem to get four outfielders 500+ plate appearances each.

 

If we open next year with Braun, Brinson, Santana & Phillips in rotation I would actually expect Braun to end up with the fewest PAs of the four just because it seems like even when he's healthy he's hurt.

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The problem in my mind is this. Phillips and Brinson need regular at bats, not be in a 4th or 5th OF role. They need to play every day to begin to figure out MLB pitching. I don't want either of them to be on the bench 3 or 4 days a week, with an occasional pinch hit appearance thrown in the mix.

 

They NEED regular at bats...

I see this most likely happening.

 

1. Stearns trades Broxton for the best offer he gets.

 

2. Brinson is at least initially given the everyday job in CF.

 

3. Phillips is the 4th outfielder. Braun always needs days off and is a lock to miss stretches via various strains/pulls, this gives Phillips at bats. He also gets some starts in CF vs tough righties and in RF to rest Santana. So he'd get plenty of playing time, not just a random start here and there.

 

Then it will be up to Brinson and Phillips to see who is most productive. If say Brinson struggles a lot for an extended stretch and Phillips plays well, maybe Brinson gets sent down and Phillips plays everyday in CF.

 

That's why i don't want Phillips traded unless the return is really good. Brinson is a higher rated prospect, but no prospect is ever a sure thing. Phillips is a buffer in CF in case Brinson doesn't pan out as we hope or if say Santana or Braun was traded.

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Looking back at the Brewers yearly splits their outfielders consistently accumulate over 2,000 plate appearances a season. With careful lineup management & inevitable Braun injuries it should be no problem to get four outfielders 500+ plate appearances each.

 

If we open next year with Braun, Brinson, Santana & Phillips in rotation I would actually expect Braun to end up with the fewest PAs of the four just because it seems like even when he's healthy he's hurt.

 

Brinson is the guy I'm worried about. Braun has been injury prone later in his career while Brinson has at a very young age. Doesn't bode well for his future as a starter.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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I think the Brinson injury concerns are fair. I've thought the same thing but still am high on him as a prospect. Having Phillips helps as he can step in. I agree with the sentiment that you have Braun, Brinson, and Santana with Phillips getting a lot of AB's in all three spots. Perez is the Swiss Army knife as another guy.

 

Longer term, don't be shocked if Lutz and Harrison are out there. Love those type of draft picks. Very high upside high schoolers taken in the top 50. You miss some prospects going for those guys because of risk. But, when they pop, watch out, you can get an impact player.

 

There is a lot of nice upside potential overall in the system among these guys and hopefully some others.

 

As for Broxton, I think he may have some value. I'd have to look around MLB to figure out needs, but some teams may covet his skill set and hope that, as a developing player, he tames his valleys, even a little bit. I wouldn't say "he is what he is" yet.

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He has played to a league average CF for WAR so you have to play Broxton or trade him for a real prospect. They can't just give him away for peanuts.

 

Why limit them to trading him for a "real prospect"? Sure they can do that, but they need useful late inning arms in the pen, and clearly need an upgrade at 2B. Only about a 1/4 of "real prospects" have significant impact in the major leagues anyway. If they limited the market on Thornburg to prospects, they wouldn't have landed Travis Shaw. Broxton should have value similar to that of Thornburg.

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If the Brewers can find a 26 year old 2B that has big potential but is blocked I'd be fine trading Broxton for him.
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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