Arizona Fall League - Erceg, Ray, Gatewood, Harrison; Latest: Four Pitchers Announced

[LouisEly]

Designated below-AA guy:

J. Gatewood - wasn't in AA by August 1st so must use this exception, but if he had been in AA before 8/1 he's be a lock

Outside chance it's M. Harrison or T. Stokes, and my understanding is that Bickford isn't eligible because he wasn't off of the minor league DL 45 days before the end of the season. If he is eligible, it's a coin flip between Gatewood and Bickford.

 

Lock:

 

J. Lopez - work on transition to reliever - ineligible, on Mayaguez PRWL reserve list

 

Good bets:

L. Ortiz - need to get his innings up, right now 7 fewer than last year, but they didn't send any top pitching prospects last year

J. Perrin - has thrown far fewer innings than last year, make up for lost injury time

QT-C - they like to send relievers, and he's a good one

T. Taylor - late start to season due to injury, but do they want to hide him from scouts if they don't plan on protecting him in the Rule 5?

B. Allemand - versatile roster-filler, can play just about anywhere

One or both of D. Houle/T. Heineman - catchers are always needed, and they may want to hide Nottingham if they plan on not protecting him in the Rule 5

 

Not surprised if:

T. Archer - (see QT-C)

B. Derby - slightly behind innings from last year

J. Nottingham - but again, do they want to risk him doing well if they don't plan on protecting him?

J. Betancourt

J. Davis - intriguing, but if they send an OF I think Taylor is a higher priority

 

Too many innings this year - Burnes, Peralta, N. Ramirez (he'd be a lock if he had pitched last year, but I think this is too many innings for not having pitched in six years).

 

They usually don't send guys coming off of major injury, Taylor Williams will likely go to the instructional league for more work. Houser is likely ineligible as he was not off of the minor league DL 45 days before the end of the season.

 

Discuss.

[Jose Cardenal1]

I think M.Dubon is a good candidate to go as a super utility guy.

 

Gatewood is a good choice as the below AA guy although I can see sending C.Ray too.

 

I feel like they send a C many years so I will say D.Houle

 

Maybe they have been limiting Ortiz's innings because they plan on sending him to the AZ Fall league for another 20 IP.

 

I think Taylor Williams does make sense as long as it is 1 inning every 3 days.

 

Bubba Derby would complete my list. (they send 6 right?)

[KeithStone53151]

I think M.Dubon is a good candidate to go as a super utility guy.

 

Gatewood is a good choice as the below AA guy although I can see sending C.Ray too.

 

I feel like they send a C many years so I will say D.Houle

 

Maybe they have been limiting Ortiz's innings because they plan on sending him to the AZ Fall league for another 20 IP.

 

I think Taylor Williams does make sense as long as it is 1 inning every 3 days.

 

Bubba Derby would complete my list. (they send 6 right?)

 

I think you are pretty much right on the money. I could see them sending archer as a test to determine whether he's 40 man worthy. Houle especially would be an interesting and good choice if we send a catcher, though I also wonder if we send Susac. It's probably too early to send Hiura, though that would be incredibly exciting to follow. Erceg could also make sense, being a college guy.

[MillerParkSouth]

I'm hoping to get to Arizona for a weekend and catch a couple of games so I'm really hoping that Gatewood and Dubon go as well as at least an interesting pitcher (Lopez, Derby, etc).

[Crash2303]

Not too concerned about "hiding from scouts" to prevent Rule V drafting as teams are pretty familiar with everyone already and it's more important for the guys to get AFL time for our own team to decide whether or not to protect them. Here are the six guys i'd send:

 

the only person who i think should definitely go is Tyrone Taylor- has hit really well since returning from injury and could use the extra time against good competition. a solid AFL would propel him back on some people's top 25 i would expect.

 

Johnny Davis- he's older, but as we all know, came to baseball late, was old when drafted, and also missed a year to injury so its not unfair to hypothesize his skills are more underdeveloped than other players his age. with as much speed as anyone in baseball- and had been crushing it from mid-June to mid-Aug- could be worth giving him extra time in AFL to develop. he should be fairly safe from the rule V draft.

 

Taylor Williams- would love for him to compete for a bullpen spot in spring training. after spending the whole season in AA, some time in the AFL might be just the launch pad he needs to do that, pardon the literal offensive expression.

 

Jon Perrin- same reasons as Luis Ely pointed out.

 

BELOW AA GUY

I think Gatewood & Harrison should bank on success they've had this year and use that momentum to come strong next year. If Phil Bickford qualifies & is healthy enough could be good to give him some innings to get his form back before next year. But, why risk it? I'd give this slot to Corey Ray who it looks still has a lot of developing to do and want to see how he handles more advanced pitching.

 

CONTENDERS FOR THE LAST AFL SPOT

Jacob Nottingham- the Sheriff might need some down time as he's looked lost most of the season, but also needs to keep developing- could be a solid send.

Clint Coulter- show your stuff, man. could use a break-out performance as next year is a make or break year for him (similar to Roache this season)

Tristan Archer- seems like a guy the Brewers like sending (see Spurlin/Scott)

Adrian Houser - showed a lot of promise at the end of 2015- could use some innings above rookie ball to get his form back before next year- but not sure if he qualifies with the 45 days etc.

 

 

TEMPTING...BUT NO

Nick Ramirez- just needs innings and experience at this point. but considering he had zero the year before, probably smart to not overdo it this season and just work on re-signing him so he can come fresh next year at Colorado.

Jorge Lopez- don't know if he just needs a break from pitching or extra time to get sorted out. if it's the latter- he gets bumped up to the top of my please put him in AFL list. though after a heavy workload of pitching all last offseason (of which he did great), i think it's wise letting him take a breather and come back strong and ready to compete for a MLB bullpen spot in spring training.

Tyler Webb - has not pitched well since being traded to us. but, also hasn't pitched much. could be beneficial to see what we've got in him and if he was worth giving up our probable minor league player of the year.

Wei Chung Wang - i believe he still qualifies. and his innings are down having gone fulltime to relief. but, not sure he really needs the AFL. he needs some MLB!

Mauricio Dubon - take the offseason to hit the weights. would love for the power potential to come.

Bubba Derby - starter? reliever? sort it out next season and let him savor a great year.

Luis Ortiz- nope. did his thing. let him rest, has looked tired at times this season (use the offseason on conditioning). not worth the injury risk.

Blake Allemand- why use the spot on someone who won't ever play in the Bigs for us? i hope i have to bite these words.

Troy Stokes - was moved up to AA July 27, with what may have been future intention of playing him in the AFL. but, i think there are more deserving and necessary guys to play there. apologies to the cult of stokes.

Keston Hiura- that would be awesome. but, as KeithStone stated, probably a little early this year. i think he'll be a strong AFL candidate next year.

[LouisEly]

I just don't trust someone else managing Taylor Williams' workload - the Brewers can't control that in the AFL, so I don't think they risk it. You can't tell a team "only pitch him for one inning every 3-4 days".

[jerichoholicninja]

I just don't trust someone else managing Taylor Williams' workload - the Brewers can't control that in the AFL, so I don't think they risk it. You can't tell a team "only pitch him for one inning every 3-4 days".

 

I'm pretty sure every AFL team has coaches from the same big league teams that the players are from meaning there will be Brewer coaches there to watch him.

 

Pick like 5 random pitchers from the system and that's who they'll send. The Brewers just don't send pitching prospects to the AFL which makes sense. No reason to add extra innings to their arms.

[DHonks]

When I worked in the AFL, the manager and trainers were speaking nearly daily with reps from each organization. It would be easy to regulate his workload in the AFL. I'd try to let him go 2 innings twice a week

[ZBTMP]

Unless something has changed Lopez fails to meet eligibility requirements

One foreign player is allowed, as long as the player does not reside in a country that participates in winter ball, as part of the Caribbean Confederation or the Australian winter league

Futhermore, I remain unconvinced that the Brewers have given up on him as a starter long term and aren't primarily just lowering his workload after a full winter ball campaign and WBC. There may be some added motivation thinking he can contribute as a reliever this year, but I think he needs to just rest this winter.

The one player I’d add who hasn’t been mentioned is Bickford. I'd be surprised with no workload constraints and lost development time if they didnt send him.

[Outlander]

Regarding Houle can they send him even though he is an upcoming minor league free agent?

[Jose Cardenal1]

 

Josh Uhen is another sneaky good candidate for the AFL. This is the kind of under the radar pitcher that the Brewers typically send.

 

Easy to forget he was a 5th round pick.

[Mass Haas]

Uhen was there last year --

 

[Jose Cardenal1]

Uhen was there last year --

 

Like I said, a prospect who is easy to forget.. LOL

 

Can a player go to the AFL multiple years? Didn't Dubon also go last year for the Red Sox?

[LouisEly]

The one player I’d add who hasn’t been mentioned is Bickford. I'd be surprised with no workload constraints and lost development time if they didnt send him.

Yes, he was mentioned, as as I mentioned I don't know if he is eligible as one of the criteria is that they have to be off of the minor league DL 45 days before the end of the season. He was not activated at least 45 days before the end of the season.

 

You are sort of correct on Lopez. Some players from those countries have played in the AFL; if they are not selected for those teams (or choose not to play) they are eligible. Yadiel Rivera played in the AFL, as did Rangers prospect Ronald Guzman. Lopez is on the reserve list for Mayaquez, but I thought he wasn't.

[And That]

I don't know if he is eligible as one of the criteria is that they have to be off of the minor league DL 45 days before the end of the season. He was not activated at least 45 days before the end of the season.

Bickford was never on the DL, as least as far as I know. He was injured but never transferred from the Carolina restricted list to any disabled list.

[And That]

I confirmed with the Brewers that Bickford is indeed eligible.

[jjgott]

Adam McCalvy‏Verified account @AdamMcCalvy 3m3 minutes ago

 

Corey Ray, Lucas Erceg and Jake Gatewood named to Salt River Rafters squad for @MLBazFallLeague. Brewers also have four pitching spots TBA.

[And That]

Designated below-AA guy:

J. Gatewood - wasn't in AA by August 1st so must use this exception, but if he had been in AA before 8/1 he's be a lock

 

Discuss.

This date was changed from August 1st to August 15th.

[And That]

Adam McCalvy‏Verified account @AdamMcCalvy 3m3 minutes ago

 

Corey Ray, Lucas Erceg and Jake Gatewood named to Salt River Rafters squad for @MLBazFallLeague. Brewers also have four pitching spots TBA.

So it appears Bickford will not be on the AFL squad. Ray and Erceg take the two

[Crash2303]

Designated below-AA guy:

J. Gatewood - wasn't in AA by August 1st so must use this exception, but if he had been in AA before 8/1 he's be a lock

 

Discuss.

This date was changed from August 1st to August 15th.

 

so that explains Gatewood, but they must have changed more rules than that, otherwise how is it that both Ray & Erceg can be on the roster if they only allow one player below AA? see rules:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/winterleagues/about/?league=119&id=player_elig

[And That]

Those rules are out of date. Two players are allowed that were not on a AA/AAA/MLB roster as of August 15th.

 

Here are about the best version of the current rules:

 

http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3812

[CheeseheadInQC]

If I'm reading those rules correctly (and they are correct), it seems like a team could assign as many as four players from below AA as long as at least two are from the A+ roster. That would seem to open the door for Bickford.

[And That]

If I'm reading those rules correctly (and they are correct), it seems like a team could assign as many as four players from below AA as long as at least two are from the A+ roster. That would seem to open the door for Bickford.

You're right. My brain skipped over that one. Good catch!

 

So I will once again be surprised if Bickford is not on the AFL roster.

[LouisEly]

Well, that changes things. It looks like four can be from below AA, but at least two of them have to be from A+.

 

Surprised they sent both Gatewood and Erceg, as they are both 3B. I would have thought the Brewers would want to get Gatewood extra reps at 3B. Erceg will limit that.

[DHonks]

LouisEly, Gatewood is pretty much a 1b who has recently played some 3b again. Perhaps he's at 1b, or perhaps he's not a priority player and is there to DH and play all over.