Anderson vs. Nelson

[homer]

Davies struggled with fastball command in the first half, he also was working on that curve that he honed in the off season. Through the season he has nailed down those pitches and this stretch is the end result. His stuff is back end but he plays up to a solid number 3 due to plus command.

 

And you guys really need to get out of the habit of looking at one stat as your basis for performance. His xfip is this, therefore he's been lucky. It's one tool, and you are way better off actually watching the guy pitch to determine whether he's been lucky or not.

 

I only quoted his xFIP specifically. I also looked at contact rates - specifically soft contact. I also looked at BABIP.

 

Just watching him pitch is the last thing you should do to determine luck. You can't remember where every ground ball goes and you can't remember every liner right at a guy. Also, the defense behind a guy matters. Is Villar playing or is Sogard? Is Shaw playing or is Perez? That makes a difference especially for a guy that pitches to contact like Davies.

 

If you can remember all of that then you are a savant and should move to Las Vegas and start counting cards.

[shanedog19]

I would be fine with Anderson, Nelson, or Davies starting a one-game playoff. Pretty good makings of a solid rotation next year. Sprinkle in Hader and Woodruff/Burnes and I think you really have something.

[KeithStone53151]

Davies struggled with fastball command in the first half, he also was working on that curve that he honed in the off season. Through the season he has nailed down those pitches and this stretch is the end result. His stuff is back end but he plays up to a solid number 3 due to plus command.

 

And you guys really need to get out of the habit of looking at one stat as your basis for performance. His xfip is this, therefore he's been lucky. It's one tool, and you are way better off actually watching the guy pitch to determine whether he's been lucky or not.

 

I only quoted his xFIP specifically. I also looked at contact rates - specifically soft contact. I also looked at BABIP.

 

Just watching him pitch is the last thing you should do to determine luck. You can't remember where every ground ball goes and you can't remember every liner right at a guy. Also, the defense behind a guy matters. Is Villar playing or is Sogard? Is Shaw playing or is Perez? That makes a difference especially for a guy that pitches to contact like Davies.

 

If you can remember all of that then you are a savant and should move to Las Vegas and start counting cards.

 

Fair enough. You certainly can't remember where every ball has been hit, you can get a much better feel for whether he's hitting his spots, how good his stuff looks, what kind of pitches guys are swinging and missing at, etc. The XFIP appears to be an outlier advanced metric in this case when looking at others. FIP is low 3s, BABIP is 276, WHIP is down, strand rate is about the same, K rate is up, BB rate is about the same. The BABIP is mildly lucky, but he's also generating much less hard contact than the 1st half...so it should make sense that his BABIP go down a bit. The FIP in this case probably makes the most sense to where is ERA truly belongs. Taking a handful of advanced metrics as a whole points to low 3s(which is worse than low 2s where his 2nd half ERA is) in my opinion.

[monty57]

I would be fine with Anderson, Nelson, or Davies starting a one-game playoff. Pretty good makings of a solid rotation next year. Sprinkle in Hader and Woodruff/Burnes and I think you really have something.

 

Agree. It's nice that we can debate about which of our pitchers is the best of a group that is performing well. Better that we can debate this in the context of a realistic playoff possibility. Also better that we are in this situation early in a rebuild process and not only did we not "sell the farm" to get here, but we added to the farm while building this roster, leaving us with a possible playoff roster and one of the best farms in the league.

 

As to the playoffs, the best scenario for a Wild Card (in my opinion) would be that Nelson would get that game on normal rest, leaving Anderson and Davies to open the playoff when we win the Wild Card play-in. Worst case scenario would be that we would need Nelson and Anderson to pitch the final two games in the season and we would get Davies in the WC and probably Garza opening the playoff series.

[homer]

Davies struggled with fastball command in the first half, he also was working on that curve that he honed in the off season. Through the season he has nailed down those pitches and this stretch is the end result. His stuff is back end but he plays up to a solid number 3 due to plus command.

 

And you guys really need to get out of the habit of looking at one stat as your basis for performance. His xfip is this, therefore he's been lucky. It's one tool, and you are way better off actually watching the guy pitch to determine whether he's been lucky or not.

 

I only quoted his xFIP specifically. I also looked at contact rates - specifically soft contact. I also looked at BABIP.

 

Just watching him pitch is the last thing you should do to determine luck. You can't remember where every ground ball goes and you can't remember every liner right at a guy. Also, the defense behind a guy matters. Is Villar playing or is Sogard? Is Shaw playing or is Perez? That makes a difference especially for a guy that pitches to contact like Davies.

 

If you can remember all of that then you are a savant and should move to Las Vegas and start counting cards.

 

Fair enough. You certainly can't remember where every ball has been hit, you can get a much better feel for whether he's hitting his spots, how good his stuff looks, what kind of pitches guys are swinging and missing at, etc. The XFIP appears to be an outlier advanced metric in this case when looking at others. FIP is low 3s, BABIP is 276, WHIP is down, strand rate is about the same, K rate is up, BB rate is about the same. The BABIP is mildly lucky, but he's also generating much less hard contact than the 1st half...so it should make sense that his BABIP go down a bit. The FIP in this case probably makes the most sense to where is ERA truly belongs. Taking a handful of advanced metrics as a whole points to low 3s(which is worse than low 2s where his 2nd half ERA is) in my opinion.

 

Agreed. It's not a good idea to look only at a stat or stats or just use the eye test. Need both (e.g. you can't tell arm slot from a stat).

[jerichoholicninja]

My gut tells me, for a one game playoff, Anderson is the least likely to blow up. I really don't trust any of them to go out there and win any game.

[markedman5]

My gut tells me Nelson gives you the best chance......strikes out the most and isn't walking many guys now.

 

He has the best stuff

[Ennder]

Yeah I have the opposite gut feeling too. I think Anderson would just wilt in the big game but Nelson has the mentality for it. He's the guy I would want if we snuck into the wild card game.

[MrTPlush]

A little irrelevent talking about wild card implications for a division winner, but Jimmy Nelson would no doubt be the man for it. It is a show up or go home game. Jimmy Nelson gives you the highest ceiling in any given game and that is what you go for even i he has more "choke" risk. Can't play it safe in a all o nothing game.

[homer]

Bring back Dave Bush!

[jerichoholicninja]

Anderson has given up 4 runs or less in every start but one (17 of 18, 94%).

Nelson has given up 4 runs or less in 23 of 27 (85%).

 

I'll agree Nelson has the better stuff but there are days he just doesn't have it. Anderson has been consistently above average in pretty much all his starts.

[Ennder]

Well sure when you start 50% fewer games you have a lot fewer chances at a bad start. Give each of them 100 starts and I highly doubt Anderson is more consistent. Nelson is also going deeper into games giving him more chances to turn that 3 run game into a 4 run game. Some of those runs were also unearned, runs are a team stat.

[MillerParkSouth]

Bring back Dave Bush!

qft. Best game I've ever attended.

[KeithStone53151]

I can't imagine we'll really have much of a choice who would start a wildcard game in reality. If we are a few games ahead in the wildcard, we almost certainly would have won the division. Wildcard would come down to the last game or two of the season and we'd likely start whoever's turn it is. The gap between Nelson and Davies right now isn't much...Davies has had some gems lately. Anderson is a bit further behind due to his time off but hopefully he'll get locked back in down the stretch here.

[monty57]

A little irrelevent talking about wild card implications for a division winner...

 

The Brewers are 2.5 games back of the Cubs for the division, and 3 games back of the Rockies (5 of the Diamondbacks) for the Wild Card. It's probably just as likely that we catch one of the Wild Card teams as it is that we catch the Cubs.

[MrTPlush]

A little irrelevent talking about wild card implications for a division winner...

 

The Brewers are 2.5 games back of the Cubs for the division, and 3 games back of the Rockies (5 of the Diamondbacks) for the Wild Card. It's probably just as likely that we catch one of the Wild Card teams as it is that we catch the Cubs.

 

We are winning the division.

[monty57]

A little irrelevent talking about wild card implications for a division winner...

 

The Brewers are 2.5 games back of the Cubs for the division, and 3 games back of the Rockies (5 of the Diamondbacks) for the Wild Card. It's probably just as likely that we catch one of the Wild Card teams as it is that we catch the Cubs.

 

We are winning the division.

 

Gotcha. I like the optimism.

[adambr2]

I definitely still think the WC is our most likely way in. Only gotta catch 1 team out of 2, both with tough schedules instead of 1 our of 1 with an easy one.

 

Also not totally sold on the legitimacy of either WC team compared to the Cubs

 

Of course that would set us up with L.A. if we even win our play-in game, but we've played them tough.

[clancyphile]

I definitely still think the WC is our most likely way in. Only gotta catch 1 team out of 2, both with tough schedules instead of 1 our of 1 with an easy one.

 

Also not totally sold on the legitimacy of either WC team compared to the Cubs

 

Of course that would set us up with L.A. if we even win our play-in game, but we've played them tough.

 

3-3 against the Dodgers this season, and held them to 3 or fewer runs in five out of six. I like the team's chances. I think the Dodgers are cocky enough to think the Crew is a pushover... and the Crew could take them, especially if a Suter or Davies is red hot and the offense shows up.

[adambr2]

I definitely still think the WC is our most likely way in. Only gotta catch 1 team out of 2, both with tough schedules instead of 1 our of 1 with an easy one.

 

Also not totally sold on the legitimacy of either WC team compared to the Cubs

 

Of course that would set us up with L.A. if we even win our play-in game, but we've played them tough.

 

3-3 against the Dodgers this season, and held them to 3 or fewer runs in five out of six. I like the team's chances. I think the Dodgers are cocky enough to think the Crew is a pushover... and the Crew could take them, especially if a Suter or Davies is red hot and the offense shows up.

 

I have to give you credit, Clancy. You could probably find a way to work Brent Suter into a conversation about diced ham.

[KeithStone53151]

I definitely still think the WC is our most likely way in. Only gotta catch 1 team out of 2, both with tough schedules instead of 1 our of 1 with an easy one.

 

Also not totally sold on the legitimacy of either WC team compared to the Cubs

 

Of course that would set us up with L.A. if we even win our play-in game, but we've played them tough.

 

3-3 against the Dodgers this season, and held them to 3 or fewer runs in five out of six. I like the team's chances. I think the Dodgers are cocky enough to think the Crew is a pushover... and the Crew could take them, especially if a Suter or Davies is red hot and the offense shows up.

 

It is very unlikely that Suter would face a single batter in the post season if we make it.

[monty57]

I definitely still think the WC is our most likely way in. Only gotta catch 1 team out of 2, both with tough schedules instead of 1 our of 1 with an easy one.

 

Also not totally sold on the legitimacy of either WC team compared to the Cubs

 

Of course that would set us up with L.A. if we even win our play-in game, but we've played them tough.

 

3-3 against the Dodgers this season, and held them to 3 or fewer runs in five out of six. I like the team's chances. I think the Dodgers are cocky enough to think the Crew is a pushover... and the Crew could take them, especially if a Suter or Davies is red hot and the offense shows up.

 

It is very unlikely that Suter would face a single batter in the post season if we make it.

 

I agree that Suter is far from the most important player to get hot, but with a lineup consisting of LH batters Bellinger, Gonzalez, Seager, Utley, and Granderson, I'd guess that Suter would get some time on the mound if the Brewers faced the Dodgers in the post season.

[markedman5]

[KeithStone53151]

 

I know it isn't related, but on that same guys twitter he has a thing for hard hit ball leaders and Braun is in 2nd. He's having quite the unlucky season, as his K rate isn't THAT bad to offset being 2nd in baseball in hard hit rate.

[pacopete4]

 

I know it isn't related, but on that same guys twitter he has a thing for hard hit ball leaders and Braun is in 2nd. He's having quite the unlucky season, as his K rate isn't THAT bad to offset being 2nd in baseball in hard hit rate.

 

Yep, Braun has been unlucky a bit but part of it as well is that he seems to not get many balls elevated. Not sure if his swing pattern has changed or what but if he could get the ball elevated again, dingers and doubles will happen.