First Base

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Hopefully Milwaukee can fill their roster with 5 million dollar players and be around .500 next season. They are good deals and it is a rebuild, right?

[adambr2]

Hopefully Milwaukee can fill their roster with 5 million dollar players and be around .500 next season. They are good deals and it is a rebuild, right?

 

Yeah, Thames and Aguilar isn't even close to the same thing as Garza.

[3and2Fastball]

Thames is ranked 20th among all MLB first basemen in WAR. There is certainly reason to want to upgrade there

[adambr2]

Thames is ranked 20th among all MLB first basemen in WAR. There is certainly reason to want to upgrade there

 

Ok then, with whom? We don't have a Cody Bellinger waiting in the wings. Hosmer and Morrison are going to cost an arm and a leg on multi year deals and you're buying high on both. Even if you want to try to convert Braun or Santana, neither is really an offensive upgrade from a Thames/Aguilar platoon, and it's unrealistic to expect either to be a defensive upgrade in their first year at the position.

 

Any worthwhile trade upgrade is going to be a big hit to the pitching surplus we've worked so hard to build up in the minors.

 

It's easy to say an upgrade would be nice and it certainly would, but I don't see anything out there either internally or externally that makes a lot of sense and is going to be a substantial upgrade.

 

My guess is the tentative plan right now, subject to change like anything else, is one more year of Thames/Aguilar and then re-evaluate after 2018.

[jerichoholicninja]

Thames is ranked 20th among all MLB first basemen in WAR. There is certainly reason to want to upgrade there

 

I'd like to know where the Thames/Aguilar platoon ranks as that is really what matters. Aguilar has 1.2 WAR according to Baseball Reference. I'm guessing the Brewers first base production is top 10 but I could be wrong.

[Boomer5]

I know we are not supposed to think RBIs matter - tell that to the runner stranded in scoring position - but a power hitting 1B with less than 60 RBIs in September is insane.

[Boomer5]

Thames is ranked 20th among all MLB first basemen in WAR. There is certainly reason to want to upgrade there

 

I'd like to know where the Thames/Aguilar platoon ranks as that is really what matters. Aguilar has 1.2 WAR according to Baseball Reference. I'm guessing the Brewers first base production is top 10 but I could be wrong.

 

Is that strictly as a team at 1B and not adding their stats as PH/DH/LF?

 

I'd say we are doing ok as a tandem without seeing the breakdown, though Thames has slowed down so much as a run producer after his white hot April that I don't think he can come into 2018 as a reliable starting 1B.

[Lathund]

Brewers 1B are 15th in in the majors in fWAR, and 10th in wRC+ according to FanGraphs. It does appear to just be adding Aguilar and Thames together, so some will be them as DH/PH, or Thames in the outfield.

[pacopete4]

Braun to 3B, Shaw to 1B, Santana to LF. Problem solved.

[dacbrewers]

Eric Hosmer is so much better than Thames, both offensively and defensively. And he's younger...Someone needs to watch more Royals games.

[pacopete4]

Eric Hosmer is so much better than Thames, both offensively and defensively. And he's younger...Someone needs to watch more Royals games.

 

I'm not sure anyone was saying that Thames was better than him. I think most are realistic though when saying that they would take Thames ($5M) and Aguilar (league minimum) at what they are producing than signing Hosmer for a longer term contract at most likely $15M a year. The Brewers just don't really need to do that right now.

[3and2Fastball]

Thames is ranked 20th among all MLB first basemen in WAR. There is certainly reason to want to upgrade there

 

Ok then, with whom? We don't have a Cody Bellinger waiting in the wings. Hosmer and Morrison are going to cost an arm and a leg on multi year deals and you're buying high on both. Even if you want to try to convert Braun or Santana, neither is really an offensive upgrade from a Thames/Aguilar platoon, and it's unrealistic to expect either to be a defensive upgrade in their first year at the position.

 

Any worthwhile trade upgrade is going to be a big hit to the pitching surplus we've worked so hard to build up in the minors.

 

It's easy to say an upgrade would be nice and it certainly would, but I don't see anything out there either internally or externally that makes a lot of sense and is going to be a substantial upgrade.

 

My guess is the tentative plan right now, subject to change like anything else, is one more year of Thames/Aguilar and then re-evaluate after 2018.

 

I would certainly agree. Thames/Aguillar may indeed be considered the best move in 2018. Personally, I'd like to see Braun at 1B in 2018 which allows us to keep all 4 of Brinson/Phillips/Santana/Broxton, all 4 of whom I think are more valuable than Thames.

[adambr2]

Yeah, not sure who is referring to with that comment. No one is claiming Thames is better than Hosmer. Also Hosmer is a brutal defender at 1st, so also not sure why he said offensively and defensively.

 

It's probably going to cost 5 years and 100M to acquire Hosmer. Obviously free agency is a guessing game at this point but that's my best guess.

 

Is it worth that kind of investment for a guy who is probably 1 win or so better per year than a Thames/Aguilar platoon?

 

What would the trade market be for a guy like Jose Abreu? He has 2 more years of control and would be a needed big bat in the middle of the lineup. Have to think the White Sox would definitely be willing to deal him being in full sell mode.

[pacopete4]

 

What would the trade market be for a guy like Jose Abreu? He has 2 more years of control and would be a needed big bat in the middle of the lineup. Have to think the White Sox would definitely be willing to deal him being in full sell mode.

 

What would his arby be? His salary is just over $10M this season so I would think that would only go up. He is a very good hitter but is he a good defender? I only ask that because he's headed to the wrong side of 30 and maybe he gets to be a defensive liability in the field and it drags down his offensive output. What a get would that be to have is another .300 hitter in the middle of our lineup though.

 

1. Villar- 2B

2. Braun- LF

3. Shaw- 3B

4. Abreu- 1B

5. Santana- RF

6. Pina- C

7. Brinson/Phillips/Broxton- CF

8. Arcia- SS

[FVBrewerFan]

I would listen carefully on any deal for Thames, Aguilar, or Shaw and Pina for that matter. Very questionable to me if any of those guys can repeat the numbers they had this season. If Shaw stays and Thames goes, remember Shaw can play1B too.

 

With all that said, I've been saying for over a year I would love to see Santana or Braun moved to 1B. I'm sure they have considered this, and there may be reasons it hasn't been done, or won't be done.

[3and2Fastball]

Santana tried to play some 1B in the Astros system and was an epic failure at it. Just looking at how he moves in RF I can see that.... not sure we want to see Domingo fielding ground bals or trying to scoop anything.... Braun's failures at 3B was mostly due to throwing. He can probably play 1B

[jerichoholicninja]

I think we all would love Braun or Santana to play first. It gets brought up multiple times a day here. Since it hasn't happened yet I doubt it happens ever.

[OnTheBlack]

I think we all would love Braun or Santana to play first. It gets brought up multiple times a day here. Since it hasn't happened yet I doubt it happens ever.

 

 

I'm not really tracking that logic. We've never had an abundance of OF depth before and it's also fairly common for power hitters to move from the OF to 1st base as they age. Santana's 24 years old and Braun is starting to age, but we finally had viable 1st base options.

 

I think the reason it wouldn't happen(especially with regard to Braun) would be more because of what we have at 1st base rather than any trepidation to move him.

 

And with regard Santana will improve a little bit in RF. It shouldn't be that hard with his athletic ability. He makes some nice plays out there. So at 24 I wouldn't write him off as being a career abyss defensively in the OF.

[jerichoholicninja]

I think we all would love Braun or Santana to play first. It gets brought up multiple times a day here. Since it hasn't happened yet I doubt it happens ever.

 

 

I'm not really tracking that logic. We've never had an abundance of OF depth before and it's also fairly common for power hitters to move from the OF to 1st base as they age. Santana's 24 years old and Braun is starting to age, but we finally had viable 1st base options.

 

I think the reason it wouldn't happen(especially with regard to Braun) would be more because of what we have at 1st base rather than any trepidation to move him.

 

And with regard Santana will improve a little bit in RF. It shouldn't be that hard with his athletic ability. He makes some nice plays out there. So at 24 I wouldn't write him off as being a career abyss defensively in the OF.

 

1B has been a black hole for years and Braun has never really been a good OF. If there was any chance of him playing there, they would have tried by now. Someone before posted that the Astros tried Santana at first at it was a disaster. Stearns would have been there at the time and knows it's not going to work.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think we all would love Braun or Santana to play first. It gets brought up multiple times a day here. Since it hasn't happened yet I doubt it happens ever.

 

 

I'm not really tracking that logic. We've never had an abundance of OF depth before and it's also fairly common for power hitters to move from the OF to 1st base as they age. Santana's 24 years old and Braun is starting to age, but we finally had viable 1st base options.

 

I think the reason it wouldn't happen(especially with regard to Braun) would be more because of what we have at 1st base rather than any trepidation to move him.

 

And with regard Santana will improve a little bit in RF. It shouldn't be that hard with his athletic ability. He makes some nice plays out there. So at 24 I wouldn't write him off as being a career abyss defensively in the OF.

 

1B has been a black hole for years and Braun has never really been a good OF. If there was any chance of him playing there, they would have tried by now. Someone before posted that the Astros tried Santana at first at it was a disaster. Stearns would have been there at the time and knows it's not going to work.

 

I wouldn't say it's been a black hole. More of a revolving door. Carter hit a lot of HRs last year, but that was about it. Lind was solid, if unspectacular in 2015. Reynolds was a whiff machine in 2014, but did hit 22 HRs and played good defense. The 2013 Fransisco/Betancourt combo was frightening. Hart was good there in 2012.

 

Hopefully one of Thames/Aguilar take the bull by the horns and lock down the position for the next several seasons. I don't see Braun or Santana moving there anytime soon.

[JohnBriggs12]

The fact that Neil Walker has been playing a lot of first base down the stretch tells me the luster is off Thames and that they could be looking elsewhere once again. Thames has been less productive than Carter was last year. Thames has 28 HR and 54 RBI with the season almost over. Carter had 41 and 94. Clearly Carter was doing more than just hitting HR too. He was hitting them with men on base. He had 27 doubles to 21 for Carter and walked 76 times.

 

They could go the cheap route next year with a soft platoon partner to go with Aguilar, say Adam Lind? Thames might not be all that easy to move though even with his modest contract.

[stoutdude04]

The fact that Neil Walker has been playing a lot of first base down the stretch tells me the luster is off Thames and that they could be looking elsewhere once again. Thames has been less productive than Carter was last year. Thames has 28 HR and 54 RBI with the season almost over. Carter had 41 and 94. Clearly Carter was doing more than just hitting HR too. He was hitting them with men on base. He had 27 doubles to 21 for Carter and walked 76 times.

 

It would be nice if you didn't always use counting stats to make an argument, but since you did. Thames has 66 walks in 150 less plate appearances, so those are probably about even.

 

Yes, he has 21 doubles to Carters 27...but he also has 4 triples to Carters 1. All of this is in 150 less plate appearances. To say that Thames is less productive than Carter last year is wrong in my opinion. Carter did bash a lot more home runs and drove in more runners, but is that Thames' fault that he had a black hole hitting in front of him for much of the year(Villar), especially in his hot April? Also, he was batting 2nd much of the year. So, he had Arcia(before he started hitting well),the pitcher, and Villar in front of him most of the time.

 

So please, do not use RBI as a way to judge a players worth.

[FVBrewerFan]

I have no problem with someone using RBI to judge a player. Personally, I don't consider RBI, but won't tell another poster what's important to them.

 

Lind, Carter, Thames/Aguilar results were similar enough not to squabble about. All were serviceable. Big question is what to expect from Thames in 2018. I can see Aguilar more or less having the same season he had this year, as long as he isn't playing every day. But Thames, just hard to predict.

 

I'm open to anything at 1B. If they want to roll with that platoon again and hope for the best, I can see that. At the same time, I can see them trading or cutting Thames if they find a better option. It's such a close call I would be fine either way.

[stoutdude04]

I have no problem with someone using RBI to judge a player. Personally, I don't consider RBI, but won't tell another poster what's important to them.

 

Lind, Carter, Thames/Aguilar results were similar enough not to squabble about. All were serviceable. Big question is what to expect from Thames in 2018. I can see Aguilar more or less having the same season he had this year, as long as he isn't playing every day. But Thames, just hard to predict.

 

I'm open to anything at 1B. If they want to roll with that platoon again and hope for the best, I can see that. At the same time, I can see them trading or cutting Thames if they find a better option. It's such a close call I would be fine either way.

 

I didn't say RBI shouldn't be important to any one person, but I think it has been shown time and time again that using RBI to compare one player to another is a pretty poor way to do so. No? Maybe using the word judge was wrong, but to compare two players seems silly.

[Lathund]

What I'd probably do is trade Thames if there's a decent offer to be had; I'm fine with that being lower-minors lottery tickets. Use Aguilar as the primary 1B; he's shown enough in limited playing time to warrant being given a chance IMO. If anything I think playing (mostly) every day would see his numbers improve. I'd look at replacing him on the roster ideally not with a pure 1B, but with someone with more flexibility. One way to get a platoon option is to sign a player who can play 3rd, so that Shaw can play 1B when a lefty is needed. Extending Neil Walker could be an option.

 

That being said, I don't consider it the most urgent spot to upgrade. If there isn't any interest in Thames, or any appealing replacements out there, then sticking with Thames/Aguilar platoon for 2018 is fine by me. See how Gatewood and Erceg come along, and make a decision when we know more about what we have in terms of 1B/3B coming through.

 

As for FAs there's not really much out there beyond Hosmer and Duda. No idea what they'd cost, but I wouldn't mind having some more plate dicipline in the lineup in Hosmer. 16% K, 8% BB for his career. Again, very much demands on what kind of contract, and what length of contract, he'd demand. I suspect it'd be more than we'd like to pay, but at least worth exploring.