The Schedule

[BillMilton]

Cubs, Cards now have much easier schedules than Brewers. Brewers slump came against phillies, twins, pirates. Those losses count double.

[stoutdude04]

Cubs, Cards now have much easier schedules than Brewers. Brewers slump came against phillies, twins, pirates. Those losses count double.

 

Dang. I knew I wouldn't like Manford changing the rules.

[MrTPlush]

Those losses count double.

 

And these upcoming wins count as double.

[stoutdude04]

Those losses count double.

 

And these upcoming wins count as double.

 

More rule changes!

 

I think most games here on out are pretty important, but it does feel like this upcoming stretch has a more important feel, or maybe I'm just hoping to see the team play well against teams ahead of them.

[pacopete4]

People read way too much into the schedule. Waaaaaayyy too much. Enjoy the ride.

[adambr2]

I thought I read at the AS break that we had the 3rd easiest schedule in the second half. Can't have been.

 

Cardinals have an even easier remaining schedule than the Cubs. Pretty unfortunate.

[MrTPlush]

People read way too much into the schedule. Waaaaaayyy too much. Enjoy the ride.

 

Yup all these games against good opponents don't mean a certain outcome just like all those games against bad teams didn't mean we were going to win. Baseball is a long season of streaks. Time to hit a good streak and the opponents name with just be a group of letters.

[pacopete4]

People read way too much into the schedule. Waaaaaayyy too much. Enjoy the ride.

 

Yup all these games against good opponents don't mean a certain outcome just like all those games against bad teams didn't mean we were going to win. Baseball is a long season of streaks. Time to hit a good streak and the opponents name with just be a group of letters.

 

Exactly. A good example of this is the Reds. Their record says trash but the way they are scoring runs right now might mean losses. (See Cubs: which could have very easily have lost 3 of 4)

[Outlander]

Once the next homestand start 40% of their games will be against the Cubs or Cardinals, 60% if the Pirates are still in it. Just have to tread water the rest of the trip as there is plenty of opportunity in the final stretch run.

[rickh150]

People read way too much into the schedule. Waaaaaayyy too much. Enjoy the ride.

 

Whatever.... for a series, sure. Ya never know. It's baseball. However, when you are playing very good teams for two, three weeks with many on the road? No. It matters big time.

[pacopete4]

People read way too much into the schedule. Waaaaaayyy too much. Enjoy the ride.

 

Whatever.... for a series, sure. Ya never know. It's baseball. However, when you are playing very good teams for two, three weeks with many on the road? No. It matters big time.

 

Nuh uh...

[rickh150]

People read way too much into the schedule. Waaaaaayyy too much. Enjoy the ride.

 

Whatever.... for a series, sure. Ya never know. It's baseball. However, when you are playing very good teams for two, three weeks with many on the road? No. It matters big time.

 

Nuh uh...

 

So you obviously believe it matters, but to what extent?

[pacopete4]

 

So you obviously believe it matters, but to what extent?

 

Of course it can't matter who you are playing but it's more of a when did/do you play them. Baseball is about streaks and even good teams have bad ones and bad teams have good ones. The division and wild card will be settled between the teams as they play each other quite a bit to finish the year. We've lucked into an opportunity for the playoffs with that [sarcasm]dynasty[/sarcasm] in Chicago having an off year and now it's up to the Brewers to play well enough over the next 40 games to get themselves in.

[adambr2]

Schedule does matter, obviously your strength of schedule is a reflection of how many wins and losses that those teams actually have, so its reasonable to assume they'll have a greater chance of beating poor record teams and less of a chance to beat good teams. The Cubs weren't playing great ball lately, but swept the Jays simply because the Jays aren't a good team, so we got no help there. If they had 3 games against the Dodgers then obviously we'd have different expectations for what we'd get for help.

 

Of course things can happen, you can get hot against good teams or slump against bad ones like we did in July. But for the most part, on the average you'll beat more bad teams and lose more to good ones.

 

I would assume at this point that our chances of getting a wild card are greater than winning the division, despite the gap in the division being smaller.

[WolfPack]

youd think that one of these 4 teams will get hot and actually take the division in this last month+

 

I just cant see this continual treading water for 4 clubs. someones gonna break out and take this.....right?!?

[Ennder]

The Pirates are out of it. This is a 3 team race and no single team is heavily favored. The Pirates were always the worst team and they aren't playing well atm to add insult to injury.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The Pirates are out of it. This is a 3 team race and no single team is heavily favored. The Pirates were always the worst team and they aren't playing well atm to add insult to injury.

 

 

I'd agree that it's a 3 team race, but I think just about every publication heavily favors the Cubs from here on out, if they didn't already. They're up 2 games, have more talent on paper, and have an easier schedule. I don't know of a single projection system out there that has them less than 70% for winning the divsion at this point.

[Ennder]

Sure and that is fine because 75% of the time they take the division by a game or two most likely. It isn't an insurmountable climb to beat them. 538 has the Brewers playoff odds at 23% right now, with a 9% chance to take the division. I am totally fine with those numbers this late in the season. If roughly 1 in 4 times we make the playoffs I'm happy as can be. I'm just saying forget about the Pirates, they were always pretenders. They have sub .500 talent and haven't been in the playoff hunt outside of the one week the team was at its hottest.

 

The Pirates are in a terrible spot, a bad team with its best player aging out and a bad farm system. Help isn't coming soon either as Meadows looks like he might be a bust and they don't have any other talent coming in the immediate future. The Pirates future just looks miserable to me.

[MrTPlush]

The Pirates are definitely out. That is kind of a given. You aren't going to leapfrog three teams in this short of a time frame. They would likely have to play way above .50" ball to even have a shot at it.

[JohnBriggs12]

Brewers don't need to leapfrog any other teams at this point. As long as they stay within 4 games of either the WC or the division with a clear field in front, they are within reach until the last 15 games or so. Once it's down to 15 games, they'll need to be within 3 games max. Odds are better at the wild card because either the Rockies or D-Backs could stumble.

[Fear The Chorizo]

There are too many recent examples of teams overcoming huge gaps in the standings during the final month of the season, particularly for the wild card, to say that anyone is out of it right now. Multiple teams can be leapfrogged if somebody rattles of 12 of 15 against the right competition.

 

What's good for the Brewers' playoff hopes is that both wild card spots are creeping back into view, giving them 3 routes to improbably get a ticket to the playoff dance. I think the division title is actually their most likely route, since they get the opportunity to play the other teams competing for it much more often. 7 games left against the Cubs, 5 against the Cards, and 6 against the Pirates give them ample opportunity to make up for any ground lost by playing a "tougher" schedule.

 

At the end of the season if the Brewers wind up a few games short of a playoff berth, all they need to look back to is the recent 4-game interleague sweep by the Twins, and the 2-8 road trip right after the AS break against the Pirates, Phillies, and Nats.

 

As for the schedule comparison between the Brewers and Cubs, the opponent team records obviously looks more difficult for the Brewers, but one other thing to keep in mind is that the Brewers still have 5 off days, two of them around the upcoming Dodger series at the end of their west coast swing. The Cubs only have 3 off days left, with one of them being today. After tomorrow, the Cubs play on 20 straight days that include 2 road trips just after losing Lester for at least a few starts. That 20 game in 20 day stretch finishes up with a weekend series against the Brewers. So yes, the Cubs are actually 3 games up on Milwaukee in the loss column, but as the season winds down those games in hand start looking like an advantage for the Brewers - particularly since the Cubs pitching staff is already a little thinned out with little/no help coming from their system in the form of September callups.