Broxton - offseason value

[bill hAll Star]

He may be valuable to a team that already has a fair amount of LH bats in the OF and probably a LH starting CF but wants him as the 4th OF that could start for an extended period if necessary.

 

He may not be so streaky if you don't need him to be your full-time starter and understand when to play him (hint: start him when a lefty is on the mound).

 

Unfortunately since he'd be on the wrong side of the platoon, he doesn't generate the value of more of a full-time player.

[And That]

Santana is so frustrating to watch on defense because he has pretty good foot speed and a very, very good arm. He just gets profoundly awful breaks on the ball. I think he has a lot more value on an AL club that can DH him and only use him in the field occasionally. If the Brewers can get value back for him, I think they can fill a hole on defense and have a fighting chance to maintain decent production in RF with the assortment of other OFs available to them in the organization.

 

I am dubious about Broxton's trade value. Yes, when he makes contact the ball just launches off of his bat like few others. He also plays excellent defense most of the time. And plus speed on the basepaths. The big caveats are obviously that contact continues to be an issue and the defense mysteriously seems to take a few days off every month. Both of those things, but the inability to make contact especially, just kill his value. I don't know that any other team would trade for him specifically to be their starter, and how much trade value do 4th OFers typically have? So I hope the Brewers hang on to him as a fill-in outfielder once Brinson and/or Phillips are ready for full time MLB work. I don't know that what you could get back for him would be worth giving up on the value he can provide in Milwaukee.

[bill hAll Star]

.263/.369/.506 vs. LHP. If Phillips was our guy in CF or any any OF spot, Broxton would be valuable to keep around. Instead, Phillips is probably the 4th guy that spells guys against RHP.

[Lathund]

I'm not too worried about either Brinson or Phillips. In their first stints they both looked quite lost, in the later ones a lot less so. Brinson in particular was unlucky, with a .107 BABIP. That's coming from someone with the 25th highest average exit velocity in the majors (Higher than, albeit barely, Harper, Freeman, Cespedes, Smoak just to name some good hitters) and someone who is a good runner to boot. Basically, even if he keeps doing exactly what he's been doing so far and doesn't adjust or improve, his result will improve significantly. I think we'll be fine letting them learn their trade in the majors, I don't think the adjustment will be too long or too rough.

 

As for the question at hand: It's a difficult one to answer. The combination of speed, power and defense at a premium defense position is rare. But so are the awful on-base skills and the swing-and-miss; perhaps best illustrated by his contact rate on swings on pitches inside the zone: 68%. That's the worst among all major leaguers with 300+ PAs. By almost 5%. He's an extremely difficult player to rate properly. He can be an extremely valuable player if he ever "figures it out", but will he? And how does the extreme streaks affect value? If it does at all.

 

I'd say what we do in the offseason depends on what people are offering. Since he'll have an option we don't absolutely have to make a move if we don't want to. Eventually we will, of course, but the roster crunch isn't going to be too bad this offseason. If noone is willing to blow us away for either Santana or Broxton, we start the season with Braun, Brinson, Phillips and Santana with Broxton in AAA. I'm fine with trading Santana for the right offer instead. I think that Santana will have the better career of the two, but it's also a matter of looking at how they're valued on the trading market in relation to our needs. A team looking for a DH and/or who are short on corner OFs might put a higher value on a player like Santana than the outfield-rich and DH-less Brewers do. But then again the midseason market for bat-first outfielders (Even if we're talking older rentals here as opposed to a controllable 25yo) wasn't great; remains to be seen what it'll be in the future.

[monty57]

There are currently six CF with at least 350 PA who have an OPS of .800 or greater. If Broxton finishes the season as the opening post suggests, he will be in high demand. Even if he finishes in the upper .700's, which seems easily doable, he should bring back some good value in trade.

 

With so many OF and Braun basically untradeable, it seems like a good idea to trade Broxton this offseason and start next year with Braun, Brinson, Santana as the OF with Phillips as either the 4th OF or the first call-up from AAA.

[And That]

There are currently six CF with at least 350 PA who have an OPS of .800 or greater.

No doubt he has been productive on the whole, but with Broxton it's more complicated than that. As an acquiring team, you're going to have to be comfortable knowing that for extended periods of time, he has shown to be almost completely worthless at the plate. It's not ebb and flow with Broxton, it's flood or drought. His volatility devalues him. To what degree is up for debate. I just don't think a team gunning for the playoffs is going to be comfortable with the prolonged lack of production as a primary outfield piece.

 

Edit: Forgot to note, he'll be 28 for next season, which is about the age a player's speed starts showing increasingly diminished returns in general. Might not happen to Broxton, but it's another consideration when working out his value.

[adambr2]

There are currently six CF with at least 350 PA who have an OPS of .800 or greater.

No doubt he has been productive on the whole, but with Broxton it's more complicated than that. As an acquiring team, you're going to have to be comfortable knowing that for extended periods of time, he has shown to be almost completely worthless at the plate. It's not ebb and flow with Broxton, it's flood or drought. His volatility devalues him. To what degree is up for debate. I just don't think a team gunning for the playoffs is going to be comfortable with the prolonged lack of production as a primary outfield piece.

 

Edit: Forgot to note, he'll be 28 for next season, which is about the age a player's speed starts showing increasingly diminished returns in general. Might not happen to Broxton, but it's another consideration when working out his value.

 

Is this actually true though? Yes, it's possible a team could add him and he might be a train wreck in the playoffs. It's also possible thst he happens to catch fire in the playoffs and mskes the difference between a World Series and an early exit.

 

Is there any tangible difference in terms of wins and losses for their team between 2 players at the same position with the same statistics at the end of the year, one that has been very consistent, and one that is very volitale? Or do we just assume this because we've always been conditioned to assume consistency = good?

 

I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm honestly curious as to whether there have been analytical studies done on it to try to value 'consistency.'

[DHonks]

Broxton reminds me of Mike Cameron, only with a little less defense.

[jerichoholicninja]

Broxton reminds me of Mike Cameron, only with a little less defense.

 

The Mike Cameron comparison is brought up all the time but as a hitter he's Geoff Jenkins.

[DHonks]

Broxton reminds me of Mike Cameron, only with a little less defense.

 

The Mike Cameron comparison is brought up all the time but as a hitter he's Geoff Jenkins.

 

Because of his streakiness? The stats are a dead ringer for Mike Cameron, hence my frequent comparisons since we acquired him.

[rcc]

Broxton reminds me of Jackie Bradley Jr. of the Red Sox. Both excellent and flashy centerfielders but are streaky hitters. They are frustrating to watch when swinging at bad pitches and striking out a lot. Then sometimes they can hit homers and win a game for you with the bat.

[jerichoholicninja]

Broxton reminds me of Mike Cameron, only with a little less defense.

 

The Mike Cameron comparison is brought up all the time but as a hitter he's Geoff Jenkins.

 

Because of his streakiness? The stats are a dead ringer for Mike Cameron, hence my frequent comparisons since we acquired him.

 

The streakiness. People always bring up Cameron because of the power/speed/defense combo but what frustrates most people here is the streakiness. Jenkins would end up every year with a decent stat line. But he would get there by putting up some of the most putrid weeks you could imagine followed up by another week of mashing the ball.

[adambr2]

Http://www.brewcrewball.com/2017/8/19/16137394/bcb-mailbag-30-is-lewis-brinson-injury-prone

 

Sums up my feeling on Broxton vs. Brinson just about perfectly. Broxton should be dealt this off-season only if Stearns receives an offer that fully compensates us for Broxton's value. Not simply for the sake of freeing up a spot for Brinson.

 

 

Broxton hit his 20th home run yesterday and has 19 steals, so it’s really only a matter of time until he reaches the 20/20 benchmark. His OPS this season is up to .774 and his wRC+ up to 95; for his MLB career he now has a 100 wRC+ with 29 homers, 43 steals, and 3.4 fWAR/2.9 bWAR across 626 plate appearances, or roughly a full-season’s worth trips to bat.

 

We would be ecstatic if Lewis Brinson could achieve those types of numbers, right? A 3+ WAR player who is capable of producing a league-average OPS, is a threat to mash 25+ long balls and swipe 40+ bags, all while playing average-to-better defense at a premium position in center field? So why then should the competing Brewers feel the need to so quickly jettison a player who is already actualizing that production at the MLB level, who has at least one more year of control at league minimum before possibly hitting arbitration as a Super 2 player, and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2022 season? In my opinion, Keon Broxton should be the starting center fielder until someone takes the job from him.

 

Lewis Brinson isn’t going anywhere. He’ll inevitably get his opportunities - someone is going to get hurt or have their play fall off at some point. But until he truly forces the issue - which he hasn’t yet at this point - I don’t see a great need to get rid of a controllable and talented player like Broxton or Domingo Santana simply to give Brinson a chance to prove he can be even as good as one of those two players.

[adambr2]

Here's my thoughts: from what I know of Stearns, he isn't going to place a 'volatility discount' on Broxton. If Broxton does succeed in finishing around the numbers given in the OP, Stearns will price him at a price appropriate with those numbers, along with his cost and control.

 

Maybe this makes Broxton less likely to be traded, I really don't know, but I don't think he'll do it just for Brinson's sake regardless of what he can get. I think it's totally possible that he has entertained the idea of holding onto Broxton, keeping Brinson, who presently has more trade value than Broxton, in Colorado Springs in 2018, where he'll presumably rake and maintain that value, with the potential of using him as a centerpiece in a big deadline deal if we're in contention.

[clancyphile]

Broxton alone has some value, even with his streakiness.

 

Broxton-Garza as a centerpiece of a trade could get a slightly better return.

 

Broxton-Davies as a combo in a trade could really net a huge return.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Broxton alone has some value, even with his streakiness.

 

Broxton-Garza as a centerpiece of a trade could get a slightly better return.

 

Broxton-Davies as a combo in a trade could really net a huge return.

 

Umm, isn't the whole goal of a rebuild to get young, controllable assets? Davies is 24, and has arguably been the team's best pitcher this year. Trading him for prospects would be taking a HUGE step backward. You have a #2-3-type starter locked in for the next four seasons. Why in the world would you give that up, even for a "huge" return? In my opinion, Davies IS the huge return. Davies and Broxton? You better be getting a young MLB All-Star caliber player back, plus a MLB Top 10 prospect.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'd still give Broxton a chance unless a top 70 type prospect was offered up in trade at a position of need or want. Remember, he has such a poor contact rate when swinging at pitches in the zone. Maybe it's an eye repair thing like with Gatewood last off-season. Broxton's numbers wouldn't need to improve much with his batting exit velocity to make them elite at CF. Drop his bad percentages by just 10% where does he go on the numbers? He's the perfect candidate to see traded away for near top 100 prospect and become elite after doing so. He's someone with a small bump in stats can be 30/40 as a hitter who's in his prime years under control for all of them.

 

I just don't believe Brinson or Phillips has any higher ceiling than Broxton. What may be a higher BA/OB comes with a lower Slg. The Defense between the 3 I'd give Phillips the better ranking, but Broxton/Brinson are awash with Broxton being more likely overall better. Problem is Phillips bat profile, isn't looking any different than Keon's.

 

Just a little tweak/improvement away from being a 5WAR type CF. The Mets would certainly have a use for him in CF. The Dodgers could use Broxton at CF, so in no way do I see him as just a 2nd tier team's type.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd still give Broxton a chance unless a top 70 type prospect was offered up in trade at a position of need or want. Remember, he has such a poor contact rate when swinging at pitches in the zone. Maybe it's an eye repair thing like with Gatewood last off-season. Broxton's numbers wouldn't need to improve much with his batting exit velocity to make them elite at CF. Drop his bad percentages by just 10% where does he go on the numbers? He's the perfect candidate to see traded away for near top 100 prospect and become elite after doing so. He's someone with a small bump in stats can be 30/40 as a hitter who's in his prime years under control for all of them.

 

I just don't believe Brinson or Phillips has any higher ceiling than Broxton. What may be a higher BA/OB comes with a lower Slg. The Defense between the 3 I'd give Phillips the better ranking, but Broxton/Brinson are awash with Broxton being more likely overall better. Problem is Phillips bat profile, isn't looking any different than Keon's.

 

Just a little tweak/improvement away from being a 5WAR type CF. The Mets would certainly have a use for him in CF. The Dodgers could use Broxton at CF, so in no way do I see him as just a 2nd tier team's type.

 

 

A lot of teams thought the same thing about Drew Stubbs. I think most learned their lesson. Broxton isn't young and he struggles making contact. His trade value isn't non-existent but it's pretty minimal.

[clancyphile]

Broxton alone has some value, even with his streakiness.

 

Broxton-Garza as a centerpiece of a trade could get a slightly better return.

 

Broxton-Davies as a combo in a trade could really net a huge return.

 

Umm, isn't the whole goal of a rebuild to get young, controllable assets? Davies is 24, and has arguably been the team's best pitcher this year. Trading him for prospects would be taking a HUGE step backward. You have a #2-3-type starter locked in for the next four seasons. Why in the world would you give that up, even for a "huge" return? In my opinion, Davies IS the huge return. Davies and Broxton? You better be getting a young MLB All-Star caliber player back, plus a MLB Top 10 prospect.

 

The Brewers have a lot of SP depth options. Woodruff, Suter, and Jungmann, for starters, with Angel Ventura and Hader as outside shots. Wilkerson, Burnes, and Ortiz all look to be ready at some point in 2018.

 

For the right price, Davies should be available. Now, the team that gets him pays through the nose, but I'm not above dealing from depth to get a huge return.