Broxton - offseason value

[Madhawk23]

OK - huge hypothetical here: let's say that Broxton uses this recent hot run to finish his season on a tear. I know this may seem questionable with his crazy inconsistencies, but he did finish last season on a big hot run, so it's not completely unrealistic.

 

Let's say he finishes with a .250 BA, .325 OBP, 800+ OPS, 27 HR, 27 SB.

 

What type of value would he have this offseason? With his age and controllability, I'd have to think that would be somewhat attractive to teams out there, right? Yes, the K's and the inconsistency might be too much for teams to overlook, but they might also think that he's a guy that they could help become more consistent?

 

As we all know, we are eventually going to have to trade at least one of Braun/Broxton/Santana/Brinson - and if you think that Phillips is deserving of a starting spot, then you may have to trade two of those five guys. On top of that, we may have guys like Ray, Harrison and Clark knocking on the door in a couple of years.

 

Just curious to hear thoughts on what Broxton's value might be if he were to finish with a flurry this year and put up numbers in the ballpark of what I listed above?

[3and2Fastball]

There is no guarantee that Phillips and/or Brinson will develop to be solid MLB players. Sure, we can speculate, but no guarantee. Because of that, you keep Broxton for at least another year. The security of knowing you have Broxton for, at the very least, depth, outweighs the trade value he brings.

 

In my opinion. However if somehow he is added in a trade that seriously upgrades our pitching staff, then I can see it.

[JohnBriggs12]

There is no guarantee that Phillips and/or Brinson will develop to be solid MLB players. Sure, we can speculate, but no guarantee. Because of that, you keep Broxton for at least another year. The security of knowing you have Broxton for, at the very least, depth, outweighs the trade value he brings.

 

In my opinion. However if somehow he is added in a trade that seriously upgrades our pitching staff, then I can see it.

 

While it's true there is no guarantee on either Brinson or Phillips, the fact is they need the opportunity to show it one way or another in 2018. Another year behind Broxton won't afford enough opportunities. Now they could keep Broxton and Phillips and deal Brinson, who likely has the most value of the three anyway. Brinson should not be untouchable for the right return. But they can't keep both Brinson and Broxton, unless they deal Santana, which isn't out of the question but not likely either.

[3and2Fastball]

There is no guarantee that Phillips and/or Brinson will develop to be solid MLB players. Sure, we can speculate, but no guarantee. Because of that, you keep Broxton for at least another year. The security of knowing you have Broxton for, at the very least, depth, outweighs the trade value he brings.

 

In my opinion. However if somehow he is added in a trade that seriously upgrades our pitching staff, then I can see it.

 

While it's true there is no guarantee on either Brinson or Phillips, the fact is they need the opportunity to show it one way or another in 2018. Another year behind Broxton won't afford enough opportunities. Now they could keep Broxton and Phillips and deal Brinson, who likely has the most value of the three anyway. Brinson should not be untouchable for the right return. But they can't keep both Brinson and Broxton, unless they deal Santana, which isn't out of the question but not likely either.

 

I would propose that the Brewers start the 2018 season with either Brinson or Phillips as the starting CF. Whichever of them wins the job in Spring Training. The other is the 4th outfielder. You keep Broxton in the organization either in AAA or as a 5th Outfielder. I mean that quite seriously because after 250-300 At-Bats if neither Brinson or Phillips show they can hit MLB pitching you gotta go with Broxton then

[Madhawk23]

There is no guarantee that Phillips and/or Brinson will develop to be solid MLB players. Sure, we can speculate, but no guarantee. Because of that, you keep Broxton for at least another year. The security of knowing you have Broxton for, at the very least, depth, outweighs the trade value he brings.

 

In my opinion. However if somehow he is added in a trade that seriously upgrades our pitching staff, then I can see it.

 

 

Good points all the way around. I guess I'm just wondering though what type of value a CF with those type of numbers would garner if he was put on the trade market? Could we expect a Top 100 prospect (preferably a pitching prospect) in a package back for him, or is that just wishful thinking? I mean, we're also talking about a guy that is still developing/growing as a player, and a guy that plays a pretty good CF defensively.

 

I get your points though - why trade a guy that we know can at least produce at a certain level in the big leagues (that's still growing), when we have no idea yet what we have with Brinson/Phillips.

[jerichoholicninja]

Or trade Santana and move one of those guys to RF. There is little doubt Santana is a horrible defensive OF. Just a quick look a bWAR shows over the past year and a half Broxton has 2x the WAR that Santana has his whole career because his defense is so bad.

[adambr2]

Broxton is quietly up to a 1.2 WAR, which puts him within half a win of any regular on our team besides Shaw and Pina. If those were his final numbers I'm guessing he'd be comfortably over 2 at season's end.

 

If he did finish with an .800 OPS and even 25/25, those are substantial numbers in CF that would justify a substantial return especially when it comes with low cost and control. I'd be open to trading him, but it would take a substantial return, something like Broxton + Garza for a similar package to what we got for Gomez + Fiers. I'd trade him for the right offer, but not simply for the sake of freeing up CF for Brinson in 2018.

 

Failing that, I'd be willing to go into 2018 again with Broxton as our CF and Brinson in AAA and pushing Brinson's service time back again. I still believe Brinson is our CF of the future. I also still believe Broxton gives us a better chance in 2018.

[adambr2]

There is no guarantee that Phillips and/or Brinson will develop to be solid MLB players. Sure, we can speculate, but no guarantee. Because of that, you keep Broxton for at least another year. The security of knowing you have Broxton for, at the very least, depth, outweighs the trade value he brings.

 

In my opinion. However if somehow he is added in a trade that seriously upgrades our pitching staff, then I can see it.

 

While it's true there is no guarantee on either Brinson or Phillips, the fact is they need the opportunity to show it one way or another in 2018. Another year behind Broxton won't afford enough opportunities. Now they could keep Broxton and Phillips and deal Brinson, who likely has the most value of the three anyway. Brinson should not be untouchable for the right return. But they can't keep both Brinson and Broxton, unless they deal Santana, which isn't out of the question but not likely either.

 

I would propose that the Brewers start the 2018 season with either Brinson or Phillips as the starting CF. Whichever of them wins the job in Spring Training. The other is the 4th outfielder. You keep Broxton in the organization either in AAA or as a 5th Outfielder. I mean that quite seriously because after 250-300 At-Bats if neither Brinson or Phillips show they can hit MLB pitching you gotta go with Broxton then

 

If we're going on the hypothetical scenario in the OP, there's no way you can justify a 27/27 .800 OPS centerfielder as a 5th OFer or in AAA. You either have to trade him or roll with him. JMO

[3and2Fastball]

accidental double post

[3and2Fastball]

I guess I'm just wondering though what type of value a CF with those type of numbers would garner if he was put on the trade market? Could we expect a Top 100 prospect (preferably a pitching prospect) in a package back for him, or is that just wishful thinking?

 

Wishful thinking, in my opinion. Broxton could be a valuable "add-in" on a trade though

[MrTPlush]

If Keon Broxton goes on the kind of tear you are proposing how is he not the starting CFer? He would have to play incredibly well and not enter another pitcher look-a-like slump.

[adambr2]

I guess I'm just wondering though what type of value a CF with those type of numbers would garner if he was put on the trade market? Could we expect a Top 100 prospect (preferably a pitching prospect) in a package back for him, or is that just wishful thinking?

 

Wishful thinking, in my opinion. Broxton could be a valuable "add-in" on a trade though

 

250 BA, .325 OBP, 800+ OPS, 27 HR, 27 SB

 

Holy smokes, if a 27 year old C.F. with those numbers and 5 years control isn't even worth a top 100 and is nothing more than an add-on, you had better hold.

[3and2Fastball]

mostly because if he ends up with numbers like that it will represent a very hot finish to the season, but he is known as a streaky player. Can he adjust back when MLB adjusts to him at the start of 2018? I just don't see his trade value being super high no matter how hot he finishes

[reillymcshane]

Or trade Santana and move one of those guys to RF. There is little doubt Santana is a horrible defensive OF. Just a quick look a bWAR shows over the past year and a half Broxton has 2x the WAR that Santana has his whole career because his defense is so bad.

Something to consider. We just have to know that there is a good chance that Keon is going to be an inconsistent player - and be willing to live with it.

 

On the flip side, Domingo looks like he could be a 30-35 HR guy. He just turned 25 a couple of weeks ago. There's a lot of potential there.

[Humans Need Water]

If the Brewers didn't have Brinson and Phillips having great AAA seasons and needing a MLB opportunity then you keep Broxton. Brinson is the front runner for CF as he has the highest ceiling and best tools across the board. Phillips would give the Brewers their only LH bat plus has a cannon, plays all 3 spots very well and has speed. All of those things make Broxton expendable if we're just talking about CF. While everyone is technically expendable these guys also have an extra year of control and, more importantly, are both 4yrs younger than Broxton.

 

Santana has a very strong bat and is 1yr older than Brinson/Phillips. If Stearns wants to go with impact players on both sides of the ball he can roll with Braun, Brinson, Phillips and Broxton as the 4th. Otherwise I'd trade Broxton in the off season and he'll bring a fine return given his age, MLB experience, potential at this level, power/speed combo, defense from the CF spot. I love Santana but I also love Brinson/Phillips - if the right deal for Santana is there I'd seriously consider taking it and keeping Broxton as the 4th. Otherwise I'm rolling with Brinson in CF and Phillips as 4th (4th OF on this team will get plenty of run). Although I've been saying most of this for 2 months now

[MrTPlush]

He kind of reminds me of Chris Carter(a better version). Tends to be streaky with a lot of huge negatives(Ks and the brutal slumps). I think he has value, but teams are going to be beating eachother up for him. Limitted demand causing a limitted return. We have so much depth in our system it would be better to just hold onto him instead of getting some decent, but not great prospects.

 

Only way I'd trade him is if I get some MLB help.

[jerichoholicninja]

Or trade Santana and move one of those guys to RF. There is little doubt Santana is a horrible defensive OF. Just a quick look a bWAR shows over the past year and a half Broxton has 2x the WAR that Santana has his whole career because his defense is so bad.

Something to consider. We just have to know that there is a good chance that Keon is going to be an inconsistent player - and be willing to live with it.

 

On the flip side, Domingo looks like he could be a 30-35 HR guy. He just turned 25 a couple of weeks ago. There's a lot of potential there.

 

Absolutely Santana has the chance to be a really good hitter, but like Khris Davis his defense almost negates all of that offense.

[Devinep]

If Broxton has trade value this off-season then trade him. With brinson and Phillips ready and other OF coming up also, something has to give unless they want to keep guys in the minors forever.

 

I hope they consider moving Santana to 1B next year to open up an OF spot and improve their RF defense. Thames could probably get something decent in a trade though

[adambr2]

Yeah I'm worried that Santana's defense will always limit his upside. It's hard to imagine that he was ever deemed suitable enough for CF.

[LouisEly]

1) How are the Brewers supposed to know if Brinson and Phillips will develop into solid ML players if they are sitting behind Broxton, Braun, and Santana?

 

B) Pretty much all major league players are streaky, except for the very elite and the... other end of the spectrum. Everyone else, their numbers are the end of the season numbers and are generally who they are. If Broxton finishes w/an OPS of .800, that's likely who he is (because it's pretty much who he was last year).

[MrTPlush]

Keon Broxton is beyound the normal streaky. I think it is a given when someone says streaky they aren't talking about normal ups and down of a season. Keon Broxton goes weeks where if Yovani Gallardo was still on the team he would probably pinch hit for Broxton late in games. He can be pathetically bad.

[brewmann04]

Just need to send him down once a season

[OnTheBlack]

Yeah I'm worried that Santana's defense will always limit his upside. It's hard to imagine that he was ever deemed suitable enough for CF.

 

 

I could see why people might have thought he could have developed into that 3-4 years ago. Even now he looks the part of a good RF'er a good portion of the time...he shows decent range and a good enough arm. And then he just makes these totally egregious mistakes that make him look like a High Schooler out there. I get that line drives hit right at you are hard. But man, it's like once a week he just totally blows a play.

 

Anyway, with regard to Broxton, if he can finish up on a hot streak, I hope they shop him while his value is high. I think it's gonna take Brinson a while to adjust at the plate at the big league level..we might have to put up with a full year of him struggling before he figures it out. But I think if you want a legitimate contender, you need consistency. He's just way too up and down. I was incredibly high on him coming into the year. But I just don't see how you can get by with one of your key players disappearing for 6 weeks at a time...even if he gets red hot for other stretches.

 

Those ridiculous swings play on second tier teams. Like Geoff Jenkins was for the Brewers but worse.

[OnTheBlack]

1) How are the Brewers supposed to know if Brinson and Phillips will develop into solid ML players if they are sitting behind Broxton, Braun, and Santana?

 

B) Pretty much all major league players are streaky, except for the very elite and the... other end of the spectrum. Everyone else, their numbers are the end of the season numbers and are generally who they are. If Broxton finishes w/an OPS of .800, that's likely who he is (because it's pretty much who he was last year).

 

 

Of course they are, but not to the extent that Broxton is. I do believe there IS some value in how you get to those year end numbers.

 

.191 .276 .324 March/April

.067/.176/.133 15 games in July before being sent down.

 

I think the valley's are too much for a team that wants to be competitive. I don't expect everyone to be Travis Shaw like consistent, but you can't play months at a time with a guy who puts up pitcher like numbers.

 

At least he's playing great D in CF while he's struggling as badly as he does.

[Madhawk23]

1) How are the Brewers supposed to know if Brinson and Phillips will develop into solid ML players if they are sitting behind Broxton, Braun, and Santana?

 

B) Pretty much all major league players are streaky, except for the very elite and the... other end of the spectrum. Everyone else, their numbers are the end of the season numbers and are generally who they are. If Broxton finishes w/an OPS of .800, that's likely who he is (because it's pretty much who he was last year).

 

 

Of course they are, but not to the extent that Broxton is. I do believe there IS some value in how you get to those year end numbers.

 

.191 .276 .324 March/April

.067/.176/.133 15 games in July before being sent down.

 

I think the valley's are too much for a team that wants to be competitive. I don't expect everyone to be Travis Shaw like consistent, but you can't play months at a time with a guy who puts up pitcher like numbers.

 

At least he's playing great D in CF while he's struggling as badly as he does.

 

I guess this is why I'm wondering if he wouldn't be a good trade asset this offseason - IF he were to finish this season on a hot run to get his overall numbers up as I had mentioned in the first post. Would another team overlook these dark valleys, and instead just focus on the fact that they are getting a CF that plays good defense and is a legit 25/25 guy? With that said though, we have no idea if Lewis Brinson will ever turn into a 25/25 guy for us? We all hope that he does, but at this stage he's completely unproven at the MLB level. If (and a big IF at that) Broxton finishes strong and turns himself into a trade-able asset this offseason, it'll be interesting to see what DS and company do in clearing up an OF spot for Brinson.