2017 Wisconsin Football Thread

[OnTheBlack]

I'm starting to worry it might not be enough. I'm sure it will work itself out, but I would not be surprised if the year we go undefeated is the year there's a doomsday scenario and we are on the outside left looking in.

 

Badgers are not going undefeated and let on the outside looking in. There's just virtually zero chance that happens. Winning out would mean beating Michigan to improve our unimpressive regular season schedule(plus a few more solid teams along the way) and then beating a team that's almost certainly going to be in the top 4 in the B1G Champinship. I'd like to hear a scenario in which they leave out an undefeated B1G team that is undefeated?

 

I not only get but I agree with their ranking right now. I think they're probably the 10th best team. But coming down the stretch, all it takes is getting healthy, really-really shoring up the OL and Hornibrook just making 3-4 more plays a game than he has been.

 

I don't think people really realize how young they are. I heard it all last week how young Illinois was...but the Badgers are young and they are bringing back almost everyone after this year. Their whole OL, LB'ers, almost all their impact offensive weapons, their top CB...etc..etc..

 

Not the point though, they'll get their shot. And they seem to be a team that plays to it's level of competition.

[OnTheBlack]

Things usually work themselves out, especially with this many games to go. But let's face it, the most likely way it works itself out is UW will not run the table in the Big 10, then beat Ohio St.

 

If they do, and don't make the playoffs, that may be it for me. That tells me it's all about who they think SHOULD be the 4 best teams.

 

 

Isn't that exactly what it is?

 

But...if the Badgers win out, they'll have a marquee win, and a very nice win vs Michigan.

[paul253]

These rankings seem a bit off to me. First off I despise Alabama but it’s a joke not to put them at 1. Georgia is 1 because, what, they beat ND by a point? Ok. Second, Oklahoma should be ahead of Clemson. Oklahoma won at Ohio St and lost to an Iowa State team that is much better than people thought. Clemson lost at Syracuse. Syracuse.

 

As far as Wisconsin goes. Michigan SHOULD win their next two games, which would make them 8-2 and probably a top 20 team heading into their game at UW. If UW beats them and also beats a one loss Ohio St or Penn St team in the championship I don’t see how you can leave them out of the playoff. I get that scheduled counts. But winning all of your games should count for something too. There is no way, unless all hell breaks loose, that two SEC teams should be in the playoff, especially since it would likely result in a 1-4 rematch in the playoffs. The SEC East is just as weak as the Big Team West is.

 

At this point I predict the SEC champion (Alabama) the Big Ten Champion (Ohio St) the Big 12 champion (Oklahoma) and then either Clemson or Notre Dame for the playoffs.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I have a huge problem with this "playoff" system - to me it seems like results on the field be damned, where teams are ranked has more to do with booster and fanbase lobbying. I also think it's stupid for this "committee" to put these rankings out essentially 4-5 games before they actually mean anything. If it's a college football playoff committee, have the entire season play out, post your first set of rankings before the conference championship week so everyone knows which 5-7 teams actually have a shot after regular seasons are over, and then let the chips fall where they may. Those conference championship games should be play-in games to any national title playoff anyway. IMO, you can't win the national title without winning your conference - period.

 

And for all this talk about WI's creampuff schedule to date - it's not their fault the rest of the Big Ten West is down. It's not their fault BYU stinks this year after they put together their 2017 schedule YEARS ago. It's not their fault that after expanding the Big Ten, they get one less out of conference game on their slate. I'm thrilled they have an easy schedule this year compared to the gauntlet of what they went through last year. At the time of their games, Wisconsin played teams ranked #5, #8, #4, #2, #7, #7, and #15 throughout the course of 2016.

 

I for one am hoping for absolute chaos - Auburn, Georgia, and Alabama all end up beating each other in such a way that they have a 2-loss SEC champ, ACC/Big & Pac 12's all have 1 or two loss conference champs, and notre dame loses 1-2 more games. Then Wisky finds a way to run the table.

[pacopete4]

I will say it wasn't very smart of Alvarez to have the non-conference schedule that he did when he knew well in advanced the B10 schedule was soft this season. It is where I have to agree with Colin Cowherd a bit. They should have been proactive and actually scheduled a good nonconference opponent to offset not seeing OSU, Penn St, Mich St. all in the same year.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I will say it wasn't very smart of Alvarez to have the non-conference schedule that he did when he knew well in advanced the B10 schedule was soft this season. It is where I have to agree with Colin Cowherd a bit. They should have been proactive and actually scheduled a good nonconference opponent to offset not seeing OSU, Penn St, Mich St. all in the same year.

 

How the heck could he have known that? Around when these non-conference games were scheduled, teams like Nebraska and Iowa were mainstays in the top 25 and Nebraska was routinely winning the Big Ten Leaders division. Heck, Michigan was probably one of the poorer programs on this slate when the schedule was finalized, because it would've been done pre-Harbaugh. At that time Penn State's program was in the middle of potentially ending due to the Sandusky scandal. BYU was in the midst of a few double digit win seasons.

 

When these out of conference games were scheduled, the Big Ten was still using its Legends and Leaders divisions...meaning they hadn't yet scheduled out of division Big Ten opponents based on the new East/West breakdown. At the time, WI was in the Legends division, which included Ohio State and Penn State. Picture their regular season schedule this year with those two teams on it replacing their games against Nebraska and Northwestern, for example.

[stoutdude04]

Yep, I was just coming to post that. The games are scheduled so far in advance that you are basically trying to guess which teams will be good. As was mentioned, they used to be in a different grouping in the conference, so Alvarez was probably anticipating playing some of the big dogs. Plus, Penn State was pathetic just a few years ago, so was Michigan.

[Outlander]

That is the danger of playing some of these small schools that complain when nobody schedules them. Utah State was a darling a few years ago, they get scheduled and are not so good. Wisconsin actually schedules an away game at BYU which is traditionally a tough place and BYU stinks this year

[LouisEly]

If you had scheduled Michigan State for 2016, what type of a team would you have thought you were playing? If you had Western Michigan in 2016, what type of team would you have thought you were playing?

 

If you had scheduled Notre Dame last year, what type of team would you have thought you were playing? Based on Notre Dame's 2016 season, what would you have expected of them in 2017? A lot can change in a year, much less the 5 years in advance these games are scheduled.

[homer]

If UW wins out they're in. No way a win over OSU doesn't move them ahead of 1 loss teams.

[owbc]

If UW wins out they're in. No way a win over OSU doesn't move them ahead of 1 loss teams.

 

Exactly--and if UW had scheduled Alabama they would still be facing that exact same situation...win or lose.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Agreed on UW winning out and making the playoff regardless of what anyone else does...an undefeated Big Ten team should have no worries getting in on this landscape, where really the only other power 5 conferences with a shot at producing a 0-loss conference champion are the SEC and ACC, if Miami finds a way to run through a gauntlet during the season's final month. All the more reason to just eliminate CFP rankings until the Tuesday after Thanksgiving. The next few rankings are basically just fodder for pointless projection shows on cable sports networks, internet, and radio.

[stoutdude04]

Nice pass hornibrook. Wow, he looks like he has regressed big time this year.

[young guns]

To be fair he was hit as he threw it. Not looking good on both sides of the ball right now. Sometimes I wish we had a little more imagination on offense. It seems like our offensive game plan is to run the ball till they stop us twice and we are in third and long and have to throw and then we finally throw a play action in and it's a 2 yard pass to a tight end. [sarcasm]Are we running too much that the line forgets how to pass block?[/sarcasm]

[adambr2]

I honestly think an argument could be made that the Penn State Ohio State losses hurt us more than help us. Yeah we'll move ahead of them, but that was inevitable anyway if we ran the table. Now even if we win the Big Ten Championship it'll be over likely a 3 loss team and not be as big of a win as the committee will want to see.

[Fear The Chorizo]

On the other hand, iowa just housed osu, and it took psu the last play of the game to beat the Hawkeyes earlier this year...anyone else realize that both osu and Penn state don't really have a quality win between them aside from the game they played each other? Maybe they are viewed as quality teams more so by preseason rankings than on field performance?

 

How does a win over iowa next week not drastically help wisconsin next week? To say losses by osu and psu today hurt wisconsin is what makes the cfp stuff garbage. Badgers are 9-0, and it's starting to look like their schedule may not look too weak after the dust settles after the year. After all, to date every team wisconsin has played has at least 1 quality loss...against the badgers!

[MrTPlush]

It hurts them more than it helps. I love the positive thinking, but pounding your chest over a 9-0 record against complete garbage is more embarrassing than impressive. None of those teams are even remotely close to being playoff caliber. The Badgers just don’t really impress me that much. The offense can be pretty ugly and even today were more lucky than good. They recovered a pile of their own fumbles where normally your odds aren’t so good. If that would have not happened the results would have swayed the other way real quick. A win is a win, but on paper when trying to pick four teams that are the best those things do matter.

[pacopete4]

Do wins over Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and what looks like now, Michigan State do it? I could see them snubbing the B10 in favor of two SEC (Georgia/Bama), ND and whoever wins the Big 12 (OK).

[adambr2]

Do wins over Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and what looks like now, Michigan State do it? I could see them snubbing the B10 in favor of two SEC (Georgia/Bama), ND and whoever wins the Big 12 (OK).

 

Still looks pretty likely to me that they face OSU. OSU hosts MSU next week and especially after today I expect OSU to win. But that game may decide it. Unless they do win but end up losing to Michigan the final week...then things get even sicker.

 

But yes, Iowa, Michigan, and whoever their opponent would be certainly should all qualify as quality wins. Win them all + Minnesota and I think they'd have a hard time keeping us out.

 

But yes unfortunately even though the natural inclination is to be happy about MSU and PSU losses today, the reality is that it doesn't do anything positive for us.

[adambr2]

It hurts them more than it helps. I love the positive thinking, but pounding your chest over a 9-0 record against complete garbage is more embarrassing than impressive. None of those teams are even remotely close to being playoff caliber. The Badgers just don’t really impress me that much. The offense can be pretty ugly and even today were more lucky than good. They recovered a pile of their own fumbles where normally your odds aren’t so good. If that would have not happened the results would have swayed the other way real quick. A win is a win, but on paper when trying to pick four teams that are the best those things do matter.

 

Honestly, I know they are 3-6 but Indiana is not THAT bad. They have a very quality non-conference win by 17 in Virginia. Their schedule has been absolutely loaded -- OSU, PSU, MSU, Michigan, Wisconsin. Losses to MSU and Michigan were by 1 score. Their worst loss -- by 3, was to Maryland, which isn't a good loss but isn't by any means a dreadful one.

 

I fully realize that beating Indiana isn't going to do us favors with the committee, but I'm just saying, they're probably a lot better than their record indicates.

[adambr2]

I'll predict a somewhat disappointing 8th in the next CFP. We pass OSU and PSU obviously but get passed up by Miami. Still behind TCU.

[PeaveyFury]

We pass OSU and PSU obviously but get passed up by Miami. Still behind TCU.

 

Fivethirtyeight has us in the playoff with 96% probability if we win out. TCU and Oklahoma play each other, as do Miami and ND. That's a clean 6th by the end of the year regardless. Clemson didn't look great today either, and there is plenty of football left.

 

Keep winning, and you'll be fine.

 

Interestingly enough, despite all of the discussion about the playoff and Wisconsin vs. PSU vs. OSU, the games today have left Wisconsin as the Big Ten's only remaining hope to make the playoff.

[adambr2]

Most likely this is all for nothing as I think they'll get OSU and lose and probably head to the Cotton Bowl again or the Peach Bowl.

 

But at least we are still in a position to speculate the possibility.

[young guns]

When Iowa was up big on Ohio st I started to wonder if having Iowa and Mich beat osu, thus improving the quality of victories over those teams for us, and then beating a 1 loss, and still highly ranked, Penn st team in the championship game would be better than just facing a 1 loss Ohio st team and having Iowa and Michigan with a slightly worse record. And then Penn st lost as well. At least Iowa st lost as well which hurts Oklahoma and tcu since the committee chair mentioned Iowa state's improved play since the qb change specifically as a factor for both those teams not getting dinged as much with that loss.

 

Northwestern has just Illinois, Purdue, and Minnesota left so they should be able to finish 9-3. Would that make them a quality win?

[PeaveyFury]

The Badgers still have the opportunity to get wins against 3 ranked opponents when they play them, presumably starting with Iowa and Michigan the next two weeks. A 9-3 Northwestern team ends up looking like a solid win as well.

 

The danger is that yesterday eliminated any possibility of a 'signature' win against a top 10 opponent. Whether the lack of that type of win is offset by other teams' 1 losses is yet to be determined. Our goal each week is still to root for each team in front of us to get a 2nd loss to eliminate them.

 

I'm probably at the point where rooting for the winner of OSU-MSU to win out is the best case scenario for us, as there is at least the possibility that if that team wins the next three, they'll have a top ~15-ish ranking in the Big Ten Championship.