MLB Pipeline Top 100 updated

[paul253]

Ray is still very young. He'll be under team control for a few more years and has time to work on things and make it to the show

 

Corey Ray has absolutely no business being in the top 100. I have a hard time even putting him in the top 10 in our own system (I’d put Brinson, Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta, Phillips, Harrison, Hiura and Lutz ahead of him for sure, possibly Diaz and Erceg and definitely Woodruff if he’s still eligible). He may be young and he may be athletic but he’s done absolutely nothing as a pro. This is a college hitter and top 5 pick who can’t even hit A ball pitching. That’s not a good sign. Hopefully he figures things out and lives up to his potential but he has a long long way to go.

[KeithStone53151]

Ray is still very young. He'll be under team control for a few more years and has time to work on things and make it to the show

 

Corey Ray has absolutely no business being in the top 100. I have a hard time even putting him in the top 10 in our own system (I’d put Brinson, Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta, Phillips, Harrison, Hiura and Lutz ahead of him for sure, possibly Diaz and Erceg and definitely Woodruff if he’s still eligible). He may be young and he may be athletic but he’s done absolutely nothing as a pro. This is a college hitter and top 5 pick who can’t even hit A ball pitching. That’s not a good sign. Hopefully he figures things out and lives up to his potential but he has a long long way to go.

 

I tend to agree with you there. I would put him around the Gatewood/Harrison grouping when they were 1.5 years into the system. He has the loud tools, but no results thusfar. I need to see something from this guy before he gets back into a top 10. Regardless of his ranking though, he's a heck of an athlete. That part isn't up for debate.

[PlayerHader]

Hitting a professionally pitched baseball is a skill, not an athletic feat. Doesn't matter how athletic a person is, it will never help him hit the ball. That's job #1 of a position player.

I think every scout and baseball talent evaluator would disagree with you. Your ability as an athlete contributes to how good (or bad) you are at accomplishing some task or feat or skill - whatever you want to call it. It's certainly not the only thing, but it's a huge deal. And in professional baseball, athleticism is what teams will bank on when looking at a player's upside - particularly position players.

 

It's why you can take dozens of 15 year old kids who have been playing a particular sport (baseball, basketball, whatever) for 10 years, and have one kid who has never played the sport walk in and be better than all of them in short order.

 

I saw a quote from one scout who said something to the effect of he would almost always bet on the athletic kid with great raw skills over the polished kid with low athleticism (he was talking about minor league prospects). Why? The good athlete is the one who will be able to keep up to the 100 mph fastball or adjust to the improving change ups and curves or whatever other pitches that a player faces as they head up the minor league ladder. Athleticism allows a player to hit the ball harder, run faster, react quicker. It's why when we hear descriptions of exceptional players you sometimes have terms like 'quick twitch' or 'twitchy' used to describe them. Again, athleticism is not the only thing. Being a baseball player is so much more - practice, intelligence, etc. But athleticism is often what helps a player rise above other guys.

 

Scouts love athletic guys because they are the ones that often have the best chance to be difference makers in the big leagues.

 

Sorry, but Ray isn't a great athlete, if he was he'd be a SS. He's not even an infielder. Arcia is a great athlete, Ray is just fast, he doesn't have coordination or body control.

 

Ray is also not young, he's 23. He's just a few months younger than Phillips and Brinson. However, he's years behind them developmentally, and hasn't progressed at the plate.

 

MLB Pipeline is just sloppy. Their writers are hype men who no longer put in their time on the rankings.

 

This makes almost no sense.

[trwi7]

Sorry, but Ray isn't a great athlete, if he was he'd be a SS. He's not even an infielder.

 

Probably because he's left handed.

[FVBrewerFan]

It's like saying JJ Watt isn't athletic because he doesn't play QB.

[brewerfan82]

Well I mean come on, it's not like we would consider any of these non-infielders athletic in their day: Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr., Bo Jackson, Rickey Henderson, Mickey Mantle. Barry Bonds, Roberto Clemente, Tim Raines. What a bunch of bumbling buffoons. Couldn't even play the infield!

[82brewcrew82]

So was Yount athletic when he won his MVP at SS but not when he won his MVP in the OF?

 

Just a ridiculous statement to make.

[TigerUppercut]

Sorry, but Ray isn't a great athlete, if he was he'd be a SS. He's not even an infielder.

 

Probably because he's left handed.

 

Whew! Somebody got out-hustled.

[LouisEly]

Athletic ability absolutely can help you hit better to some degree. From a swing mechanics/consistency standpoint. The part it can't really help with is tracking pitching and plate discipline.

Exactly. I was referring to the latter.

[Dmiles23]

Hitting a professionally pitched baseball is a skill, not an athletic feat. Doesn't matter how athletic a person is, it will never help him hit the ball. That's job #1 of a position player.

I think every scout and baseball talent evaluator would disagree with you. Your ability as an athlete contributes to how good (or bad) you are at accomplishing some task or feat or skill - whatever you want to call it. It's certainly not the only thing, but it's a huge deal. And in professional baseball, athleticism is what teams will bank on when looking at a player's upside - particularly position players.

 

It's why you can take dozens of 15 year old kids who have been playing a particular sport (baseball, basketball, whatever) for 10 years, and have one kid who has never played the sport walk in and be better than all of them in short order.

 

I saw a quote from one scout who said something to the effect of he would almost always bet on the athletic kid with great raw skills over the polished kid with low athleticism (he was talking about minor league prospects). Why? The good athlete is the one who will be able to keep up to the 100 mph fastball or adjust to the improving change ups and curves or whatever other pitches that a player faces as they head up the minor league ladder. Athleticism allows a player to hit the ball harder, run faster, react quicker. It's why when we hear descriptions of exceptional players you sometimes have terms like 'quick twitch' or 'twitchy' used to describe them. Again, athleticism is not the only thing. Being a baseball player is so much more - practice, intelligence, etc. But athleticism is often what helps a player rise above other guys.

 

Scouts love athletic guys because they are the ones that often have the best chance to be difference makers in the big leagues.

 

Sorry, but Ray isn't a great athlete, if he was he'd be a SS. He's not even an infielder. Arcia is a great athlete, Ray is just fast, he doesn't have coordination or body control.

 

Ray is also not young, he's 23. He's just a few months younger than Phillips and Brinson. However, he's years behind them developmentally, and hasn't progressed at the plate.

 

MLB Pipeline is just sloppy. Their writers are hype men who no longer put in their time on the rankings.

 

Wait... What now? So Bo Jackson wasn't a great athlete? Or Deion Sanders?

[Jenkins5]

Ray maybe should be dropped off. Diaz absolutely not!

 

I could go back to my post from a few months ago why NOT to freak out with Carolina numbers that broke down the leagues stats across the board. I don't think there is a scout who has seen him that does not absolutely love his bat! I'd go to T-Rat games jaw would drop watching him. He literally squares up everything and the sound of bat is incredible. One of the best I've heard. You can be down on the K's being at 26% or batting average not being what you hope (name many in the Carolina league who do). Focus on him hitting .225 while still having 104 wRC+, 13.6% BB%, .155 ISO, and fact that realistically he will not carry a .280 babip often. His IFF% raised....maybe pressing more due to struggles and frustration. He will be 21 in AA next season and regain everything some have lost on him.

 

Ray is older and had major contact concerns his junior year at Louisville. Those have not improved much but think he isn't as awful as most make him out to be. Most of it comes from people who hated the pick (I disliked it as well) others because Ray is top 5 pick so expectations are he should play at that level. I will hold out until Fall League against top competition and Biloxi. 2 seasons at BC and Carolina which have shown to be tough on hitters. He needs to improve I will say that but not completely writing him off.

 

Harrison gets zero national love and I am fine with that, He stays healthy and that will change quick. Gatewood is another who continues to fly under radar. Next season in Biloxi will be huge for the system and defining who are legit prospects.

[LouisEly]

No one is saying that Ray is awful. They are saying that Ray is severely underperforming for a #5 overall pick. It's relative production compared to his referent others - Collins, Benintendi, Happ, Schwarber, Conforto, etc.

 

If Ray had been a 4th round pick, or if he were 20 years old like Trent Clark, there would be far, far less concern, if any.

[brewcrewdue80]

Sadly, Ray is a bust. Face it. You could have thrown darts at 1st round talents to draft and it'd be a better pick than Ray was. This Season clearly shows again, something I've been chiming for awhile now. Taller players result in higher ceilings. Santana at 6'5" and Judge at 6' 7". Drafting a smaller College athlete in Ray who didn't possess HR power talent nor OB skills was asking for the disaster we are left with. Next two OFs selected were Kyle Lewis at 6-4 and Will Benson a HS at 6-5. Kiriloff and Rutherford are over 6'. Taking Ray was betting on elite defense with the speed and hoping the bat's floor wouldn't get too low where he's a negative WAR player.

 

Ray cost 4.1mil of 4.3mil at the slot the Brewers drafted. That's the problem here. Benson signed for 2.5mil and Rutherford 3.28mil. You put so much money in to a guy that only screams average to slightly above across the tools board, something again I voiced disgust in. You look up and down the minors in the Brewers system and has been mentioned, the super star bat isn't there. Ray's pick could have taken chance on that kind of ceiling over the floor Ray offered.

 

I look forward to when MLB does their pre-rankings and where Ray falls to among Brewer prospects. As said can easily rate 10 higher than him to this point. How blind an eye will they turn on him vs. guys like Harrison&Gatewood? Burnes and Peralta?

[pacopete4]

It's too bad that the White Sox wouldn't overpay us for a guy like Ray right now so we could move on from him before he loses every bit of his high prospect status. What a whiff by the Brewers on this one.

[MilwaukeesBest]

Love all these knee-jerk reactions. He hasn't been the player we all hoped when he was drafted but to call him a bust is just silly. Glad you guys aren't running a team. What exactly have Benson and Lewis done (other than being over 6') that has been so impressive thus far?

 

I also don't believe front offices care about a couple prospect lists and where a guy fits on them. Trying to "sell high" on a guy ranked second before he slides to fifth seems nitpicky and forum based to me, don't you think?

 

Way too early to tell if it was a whiff or not. If he bats .280 next season with good K/BB rates and I hope everyone bashing him eats crow instead of sitting silent. People have up and down years and hopefully this is no exception.

[reillymcshane]

It is really, really early to call Ray a bust. I'm not defending his production. I'm not even advocating he be on Top 100 lists or whatever (I've given reasons for why someone would include him on those lists). His performance has raised some red flags. However, as I said before, despite the fact that Ray was a college player and a high pick, teams knew he had work to achieve those lofty expectations. The torn meniscus likely didn't help things. I think another year will go a long way to showing off what kind of player Ray will be.

[Noche]

I'm old enough to remember when these exact same posters thought Orlando Arcia was an overrated bust.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm old enough to remember when these exact same posters thought Orlando Arcia was an overrated bust.

 

Most posters still think that of Arcia...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm old enough to remember when these exact same posters thought Orlando Arcia was an overrated bust.

 

Most posters still think that of Arcia...

 

You are 100% wrong.

[Jenkins5]

I'm old enough to remember when these exact same posters thought Orlando Arcia was an overrated bust.

 

Most posters still think that of Arcia...

 

You are 100% wrong.

 

I don't know I still read plenty of people on here still not buying in on him because at 23 he is not the top SS in baseball with OPS over .800

 

More recent, how many posters and scouts thought Phillips was dead and out as a prospect and anything more than 4th or 5th OF? Erceg was just as bad as Ray this season for most part along with most of that loaded team.....[sarcasm]we probably should right off all of them as busts[/sarcasm]

[Never Outhustled]

I'm old enough to remember when these exact same posters thought Orlando Arcia was an overrated bust.

 

The 2 don't even begin to compare. Arcia spent the last year and a half steadily improving in the majors, Ray spent the last year and a half struggling at A+. They're the same age.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm old enough to remember when these exact same posters thought Orlando Arcia was an overrated bust.

 

Ray=bust

Arcia=Brewers Franchise Jeter comp.

I couldnt have a more polar opinion on the two.

 

What have Lewis or Benson done? Lewis I dont know, injuries?

Benson at 19 completed his year at 10HRs in 58games and under 250PAs. You can translate that out to 30HRs. And thats at 19 premature body. While a .238 avg, he had near .350OB. Thats a darn good looking start for a 2.5mil signing.

 

Id love to be wrong, but at his current rate of advancement, he'll be making ML debut, if at all, when hes 27/28. Even his SB totals were alarming. Something Iactually believe he could produce above average with 30s in a season. But if hhe's going to have that CS rate, OB rate, he'll be a 7/8 in an order and kept quiet on base paths. So now Ill worry if hes even surpassing 20 on a season.

[adambr2]

I'm old enough to remember when these exact same posters thought Orlando Arcia was an overrated bust.

 

Ray=bust

Arcia=Brewers Franchise Jeter comp.

I couldnt have a more polar opinion on the two.

 

What have Lewis or Benson done? Lewis I dont know, injuries?

Benson at 19 completed his year at 10HRs in 58games and under 250PAs. You can translate that out to 30HRs. And thats at 19 premature body. While a .238 avg, he had near .350OB. Thats a darn good looking start for a 2.5mil signing.

 

Id love to be wrong, but at his current rate of advancement, he'll be making ML debut, if at all, when hes 27/28. Even his SB totals were alarming. Something Iactually believe he could produce above average with 30s in a season. But if hhe's going to have that CS rate, OB rate, he'll be a 7/8 in an order and kept quiet on base paths. So now Ill worry if hes even surpassing 20 on a season.

 

I like Arcia but some of the love is getting a little overblown IMO. Yes he's a nice young player with upside, and yes he's only 23. But...the guy has a long ways to go. He's about a 2 WAR player for his career so far. Jeter comps might be a little premature.

[brewcrewdue80]

Of course Arcia won't approach Jeter offensive numbers AL bats get quite a few more PAs than NL bats. But I see him being a cornerstone at SS with a higher BA and enough power for a SS to stick around a 3+WAR SS for a long time.

 

157 654 582 104 183 25 6 10 78 14 7 48 102 .314 .370 .430 .800 101

153 548 506 56 140 17 2 15 53 14 7 36 100 .277 .324 .407 .731 90

 

Jeter is the top line 1st full season at age 22 and won ROY

Arcia is the 2nd line his full season this year at age 22. Notice the difference in PA, runs scored and AL thing vs NL.

7.3% vs 6.6% bb rate 15.6% vs 18.2% K rate

Clearly Arcia hit more HRs in nearly 100 less PAs. Stolen Base numbers identical. Arcia is a special kid.

 

On Aug 1st is triple slash was .273/.318/.394

The Low to highs of that triple slash the last 2months of season were

BA: .267-.286

OB: .315-.329

Slg: .394-.425

 

That makes a consistent .709-.754 OPS during the final 2months of his 1st season where he finished at .277/.324/.407=.731

1st 2months that line was at .251/.293/ .368=.661

 

.291 .370 .405 .775 Jeter's 2nd season lines. I think Arcia will be pretty close flipping some points on OB with Slg but BA every bit near or at that.

 

Jeter's 20 year BWar averages out to 3.59. To age 35 season it is 4.49BWar the first 15seasons. Arcia scored a higher Defensive War this year than Jeter ever had in his career.

So yeah, I don't feel overblown on hyping Arcia's value to Jeter's.