MLB Pipeline Top 100 updated

[LouisEly]

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects

 

Just updated:

 

#15 - Lewis Brinson

#67 - Corey Ray

#79 - Luis Ortiz

#91 - Woodruff

#92 - Keston Hiura

#96 - Isan Diaz

 

Interesting to note that none of the top 8 overall were drafted - all international free agents.

 

Discuss.

[OnTheBlack]

Looks like there might be something to these Dominican Republic and Cuban players....

 

Seriously though, my thought is that this is a bit of an aberration. Obviously so much talent comes out of LA countries and with Cuban players able to come over more freely now obviously a lot of talent has come over recently.

 

Pipeline does seem a bit more stubborn to move guys in season. For instance, I think a guy like Burnes should probably rank higher on their list and I think the opinions of Moncada have cooled a bit.

 

I also think it's nice to finally NOT see that list littered with Cubs.

[jjfanec]

7 of the top 60 from the White Sox. That is pretty impressive

[OnTheBlack]

They definitely got some big names back for Sale in particular. Both have huge potential, but both also seem to be boom or bust type guys. Koepech looked good in the futures game, but more like a reliever. Honeywell I think it was...the TB pitcher. He looked like the best future big leaguer to me. He kinda reminded me of Halladay. The way he attacked and the way his fastball had that late movement.

 

Another thing that stands out to me is that Mejia who we'd have gotten from the Indians if Lucroy would have accepted that trade. I know Brinson is rated ahead of him and we got a better return outside of just those top two, OF'ers don't excite me like catchers do(for obvious reasons) and I think Brinson is gonna take a while to adjust to big league baseball where as Mejia just keeps on killing it.

 

I was pretty confident that we got lucky with Luc declining the Cleveland trade at the time and even earlier this year...but I'm starting to wonder if we missed out on a better trade.

[MadThinker88]

I was pretty confident that we got lucky with Luc declining the Cleveland trade at the time and even earlier this year...but I'm starting to wonder if we missed out on a better trade.

 

Yes, the Brewers missed out. Every week I hear a Tribe fan thanking the heavens that Lucroy decline te deal (although many were saying that this season as Lucroy struggled in Texas).

 

Had Lucroy accepted the deal, 3 others (besides Mejia) were coming to Milwaukee. Also - it took Lucroy AND Jeffries to get that package from Texas (when good relievers were drawing premium prices).

 

I will forever be curious on 2 things:

1) what Jeffries ALONE could have netted in a trade (with Texas or another team last season)

2) if the W. Smith deal with SF got altered to include Susac since Mejia had not been acquired.

[jerichoholicninja]

I was pretty confident that we got lucky with Luc declining the Cleveland trade at the time and even earlier this year...but I'm starting to wonder if we missed out on a better trade.

 

Yes, the Brewers missed out. Every week I hear a Tribe fan thanking the heavens that Lucroy decline te deal (although many were saying that this season as Lucroy struggled in Texas).

 

Had Lucroy accepted the deal, 3 others (besides Mejia) were coming to Milwaukee. Also - it took Lucroy AND Jeffries to get that package from Texas (when good relievers were drawing premium prices).

 

I will forever be curious on 2 things:

1) what Jeffries ALONE could have netted in a trade (with Texas or another team last season)

2) if the W. Smith deal with SF got altered to include Susac since Mejia had not been acquired.

 

Jeffress

 

And we got 2 current top 100 prospects in the Rangers deal. Personally, catching prospects, especially those in the low minors as Mejia was at the time, don't excite me. Way too much unpredictability with them and if they can't stick behind the plate you generally end up with a mediocre bat limited to playing a big time offensive position.

[trwi7]

Had Lucroy accepted the deal, 3 others (besides Mejia) were coming to Milwaukee.

 

Please. The other 3 coming back were a soon to be 27 year old who gives a crap reliever with a 4.57 FIP in the majors, a 24 year old outfielder with 11 extra base hits and .663 OPS in AAA this year and an infielder hitting .217/.309/.461 in AA this year.

 

I would trade those three for Ortiz in a second and when you consider Brinson and Mejia are basically a wash as prospects, that makes the Rangers package far more valuable and I'm not even including Cordell in this.

[MrTPlush]

7 of the top 60 from the White Sox. That is pretty impressive

 

And their MLB roster is a gigantic dumster fire.

[MadThinker88]

Had Lucroy accepted the deal, 3 others (besides Mejia) were coming to Milwaukee.

 

Please. The other 3 coming back were a soon to be 27 year old who gives a crap reliever with a 4.57 FIP in the majors, a 24 year old outfielder with 11 extra base hits and .663 OPS in AAA this year and an infielder hitting .217/.309/.461 in AA this year.

 

I would trade those three for Ortiz in a second and when you consider Brinson and Mejia are basically a wash as prospects, that makes the Rangers package far more valuable and I'm not even including Cordell in this.

 

To defend Greg Allen (the outfielder), he is still in AA & has only played in 63 games as of this response. He missed 50+ games due to a broken hamate bone. As for Yu Chang (the infielder), he is 21 (turning 22 on Friday) and it puts him on the young side for the level.

I copied & provided a link from Scouting baseball below (from the free content). They rank Cleveland as the 18th farm system and if those those 3 players (& the reliever Armstrong) were in the Milwaukee system, Cleveland would be bottom five in baseball.

 

BTW - after all the moves plus made by the Cubs over the past 2 years, those Cubs are now viewed as the worst farm system in baseball.

 

.....

The biggest bonus this (Cleveland) system has right now is the failed Jonathan Lucroy deal. If Lucroy had not vetoed the deal that would have sent him to Cleveland, Francisco Mejia, Yu-Cheng Chang, and Greg Allen would all be in Milwaukee right now, and the Indians would be a bottom five system. Instead they have arguably the top catching prospect in all of baseball, a power hitting shortstop, and a center fielder with elite level defense.

 

http://scout.com/mlb/scouting/Article/Organization-Farm-System-Rankings-and-Top-10-Prospects-16-18-106215033

[trwi7]

To defend Greg Allen (the outfielder), he is still in AA & has only played in 63 games as of this response. He missed 50+ games due to a broken hamate bone. As for Yu Chang (the infielder), he is 21 (turning 22 on Friday) and it puts him on the young side for the level.

I copied & provided a link from Scouting baseball below (from the free content). They rank Cleveland as the 18th farm system and if those those 3 players (& the reliever Armstrong) were in the Milwaukee system, Cleveland would be bottom five in baseball.

 

BTW - after all the moves plus made by the Cubs over the past 2 years, those Cubs are now viewed as the worst farm system in baseball.

 

.....

The biggest bonus this (Cleveland) system has right now is the failed Jonathan Lucroy deal. If Lucroy had not vetoed the deal that would have sent him to Cleveland, Francisco Mejia, Yu-Cheng Chang, and Greg Allen would all be in Milwaukee right now, and the Indians would be a bottom five system. Instead they have arguably the top catching prospect in all of baseball, a power hitting shortstop, and a center fielder with elite level defense.

 

http://scout.com/mlb/scouting/Article/Organization-Farm-System-Rankings-and-Top-10-Prospects-16-18-106215033

 

Okay? None of this changes the fact that I would rather have Ortiz over all three of these guys. Quality over quantity. Cheng is the best one and we already have a middle infield prospect that's sort of struggling in Diaz. An all glove, no bat outfielder isn't particularly difficult to find and the only value Armstrong would have is hoping he pitches well enough in relief to flip him later.

[OnTheBlack]

I was pretty confident that we got lucky with Luc declining the Cleveland trade at the time and even earlier this year...but I'm starting to wonder if we missed out on a better trade.

 

Yes, the Brewers missed out. Every week I hear a Tribe fan thanking the heavens that Lucroy decline te deal (although many were saying that this season as Lucroy struggled in Texas).

 

Had Lucroy accepted the deal, 3 others (besides Mejia) were coming to Milwaukee. Also - it took Lucroy AND Jeffries to get that package from Texas (when good relievers were drawing premium prices).

 

I will forever be curious on 2 things:

1) what Jeffries ALONE could have netted in a trade (with Texas or another team last season)

2) if the W. Smith deal with SF got altered to include Susac since Mejia had not been acquired.

 

Jeffress

 

And we got 2 current top 100 prospects in the Rangers deal. Personally, catching prospects, especially those in the low minors as Mejia was at the time, don't excite me. Way too much unpredictability with them and if they can't stick behind the plate you generally end up with a mediocre bat limited to playing a big time offensive position.

 

Catching prospects excite me kinda like pitching prospects. You know most probably won't pan out, but if they do, then it's that much more exciting because of the value of the position.

 

You're also talking about at the time. I'm saying right now. Right now I'm STARTING to wonder if we missed out. He's not dominating Double A, and he's got the ability to stick behind the plate. But so did Angel Salome.

[OnTheBlack]

Had Lucroy accepted the deal, 3 others (besides Mejia) were coming to Milwaukee.

 

Please. The other 3 coming back were a soon to be 27 year old who gives a crap reliever with a 4.57 FIP in the majors, a 24 year old outfielder with 11 extra base hits and .663 OPS in AAA this year and an infielder hitting .217/.309/.461 in AA this year.

 

I would trade those three for Ortiz in a second and when you consider Brinson and Mejia are basically a wash as prospects, that makes the Rangers package far more valuable and I'm not even including Cordell in this.

 

Yeah, none of the other three prospects were particularly interesting. I don't see how where the teams farm systems might rank if this had happened means anything and I don't think Jeffress was ever going to get anywhere near the return that Smith, a dominant lefty with a much higher K rate got, or Thornburg who was also far more dominant and who the Red Sox didn't really give up anyone they valued much at the time. Obviously it looks ridiculous in retrospect.

 

The only reason I said I'm starting to wonder if the Indians trade would have been better is because if Mejia ends up reaching his ceiling he'll be the most valuable player in the trade. I'm also not particularly high on Brinson. Not top 15 prospect high anyway. I think he's gonna struggle for a while before he starts to hit.

 

The potential Indians trade is at least looking closer to the Rangers trade as long as Mejia continues to play so well at such a young age in AA at such an important position.

[adambr2]

Brewers somewhat quietly have an impressive 7 prospects in the MLB Pipeline postseason top 100.

 

12. Brinson

58. Ray

69. Ortiz

80. Woodruff

81. Hiura

85. Diaz

96. Burnes

[trwi7]

I would love to hear their rationale for not only having Ray in the top 100 but in the 50s when he hasn't hit in pro ball at all. And nobody bother posting their write up on him, it's the same as it was early in the season that still says he's gotten off to a slow start in the Florida State League, I don't need to read their fluff that's also filled with inaccurate information on what league he plays in.

[adambr2]

I would love to hear their rationale for not only having Ray in the top 100 but in the 50s when he hasn't hit in pro ball at all. And nobody bother posting their write up on him, it's the same as it was early in the season that still says he's gotten off to a slow start in the Florida State League, I don't need to read their fluff that's also filled with inaccurate information on what league he plays in.

 

Yeah Ray is definitely still rated off his draft stock, but I'm surprised he hasn't been demoted more for his performance this season. Same with Diaz. After seeing Clark and Phillips both tumble out last year I'm a bit surprised Diaz and Ray did not.

 

Speaking of Phillips, based on the eligibility he still carries I can't understand how he is not back in the top 100.

 

How does a former top 40 prospect with a .944 OPS in AAA and top notch glove in CF who has had great success in his first MLB stint in his age 22-23 season not even show up in the top 100? Makes no sense to me. Feels like if he played for Boston they'd be raving about him. I also think Freddy Peralta is somewhat underrated, should be a borderline top 100. He was basically 1B to Burnes' 1A as far as minor league pitchers went this season for us.

[Lathund]

Has the list been updated for the postseason? (EDIT: Looks like it'll next be updated in January). Looks to me like it's the the midseason list, but with players bumped up due to players above them losing their eligibility. The order of the Brewers prospects is the same. Hiura and Diaz who are close to eachother near the bottom have climbed the same amount of spots, Ortiz and Woodruff ahead of them have climbed 10 and 11 spots respectively etc. I remember reading at the time in a prospect chat that Burnes was just outside the initial 100 too so that makes sense as well.

 

So with it being a midseason list I get why Phillips isn't there. His 2016 season wasn't very good, and it's understandable to want to see more than half a season in Colorado Springs before moving a prospect up the list. As for Ray, again the midseason bit would play into it. Seems to me like prospect evaluators will be patient with toolsy prospects, and they'll have to struggle a lot to be dropped. In midseason it was roughly one injury-shortened season (Some 450-500 at bats or so). By now it's 773, and I expect him to drop in the offseason rankings, out of the top 100. But probably not as far as one might expect.

[adambr2]

Has the list been updated for the postseason? (EDIT: Looks like it'll next be updated in January). Looks to me like it's the the midseason list, but with players bumped up due to players above them losing their eligibility. The order of the Brewers prospects is the same. Hiura and Diaz who are close to eachother near the bottom have climbed the same amount of spots, Ortiz and Woodruff ahead of them have climbed 10 and 11 spots respectively etc. I remember reading at the time in a prospect chat that Burnes was just outside the initial 100 too so that makes sense as well.

 

So with it being a midseason list I get why Phillips isn't there. His 2016 season wasn't very good, and it's understandable to want to see more than half a season in Colorado Springs before moving a prospect up the list. As for Ray, again the midseason bit would play into it. Seems to me like prospect evaluators will be patient with toolsy prospects, and they'll have to struggle a lot to be dropped. In midseason it was roughly one injury-shortened season (Some 450-500 at bats or so). By now it's 773, and I expect him to drop in the offseason rankings, out of the top 100. But probably not as far as one might expect.

 

I think you're absolutely right, I didn't think about that. That explains why Phillips didn't make it. I would expect he'll rise considerably in the January lists before graduating next spring. Ray and Diaz probably out, maybe a guy like Lutz or Peralta in.

[reillymcshane]

I would love to hear their rationale for not only having Ray in the top 100 but in the 50s when he hasn't hit in pro ball at all. And nobody bother posting their write up on him, it's the same as it was early in the season that still says he's gotten off to a slow start in the Florida State League, I don't need to read their fluff that's also filled with inaccurate information on what league he plays in.

 

One of the biggest challenges Ray had coming out of college was that he hadn't produced elite numbers. They were good - but not great. Every team knew that Ray was going to have to make adjustments as a pro. They knew there would be some growing pains. Scouts and talent evaluators, however, also recognized Ray’s quick bat, his elite athleticism and his excellent makeup. Scouts, baseball analysts, front office people - they all saw the upside that Ray possessed - even if he hadn't channeled that athleticism and tools into better raw numbers.

 

One and a half years of mediocre play doesn't completely erase all of that upside. Of course, on the flip side, it doesn't mean we should ignore Corey's lack of production to date. I believe it's foolish to ignore either of those things.

 

I know that the Brewers loved Ray when they drafted him. They saw him as a guy who could develop into a 15-20 HR guy, steal 30 bases, hit .280, and play good defense. It's not just tools - it's athleticism. It's something a lot of people don't have. And baseball people described Ray as having elite athleticism. Baseball people love elite athleticism. It's what produces upside. It's what allows a player to overcome challenges as they rise up the minor league ladder.

 

We should also note that Ray played 2017 coming of a torn meniscus. I don't know how much it affected him this year - maybe not at all - maybe a lot. It will be interesting to see him play a season fully healthy.

 

I guess a lot of Ray's ranking comes down to baseball evaluators seeing and understanding the young man's upside. And they are laying money that he translates his tools and athleticism into something exceptional down the line. If they no longer see that athleticism, then they should be downgrading Ray (or any player).

 

I'm not arguing that Ray should be a Top 50 or Top 100 guy. I'm just putting out there that the guy has a lot going for him. People didn't rank him high in the draft just for the heck of it. There were reasons for that. It also doesn't mean he is going to be a good baseball player - just that the building blocks are there. He's still got to put it all together.

 

I am curious to see the reports on Ray at the Arizona Fall League. It is where a lot of baseball people really can see how a player has changed since the previous year. It will be fun to see what folks have to say.

[MadThinker88]

I am curious to see the reports on Ray at the Arizona Fall League. It is where a lot of baseball people really can see how a player has changed since the previous year. It will be fun to see what folks have to say.

 

It is also an opportunity for Ray to be playing against a higher level of competition.

There are roster filler types across all levels but with fewer clubs in the Fall league (& multiple organizations making up each team), the number of roster fillers drops.

[LouisEly]

Hitting a professionally pitched baseball is a skill, not an athletic feat. Doesn't matter how athletic a person is, it will never help him hit the ball. That's job #1 of a position player.

 

While Ray and Diaz should fall off the list, an argument could be made that Phillips, Harrison, and Peralta should/could be on the list, so the number of Brewers on the list should be about right.

[KeithStone53151]

Hitting a professionally pitched baseball is a skill, not an athletic feat. Doesn't matter how athletic a person is, it will never help him hit the ball. That's job #1 of a position player.

 

While Ray and Diaz should fall off the list, an argument could be made that Phillips, Harrison, and Peralta should/could be on the list, so the number of Brewers on the list should be about right.

 

Athletic ability absolutely can help you hit better to some degree. From a swing mechanics/consistency standpoint. The part it can't really help with is tracking pitching and plate discipline.

 

I think there needs to be a little less panic on this board about young prospects. Many of you were calling for Phillips to fall off every top 100 list last year, and now he seems penciled in as the CF starter to open 2018 and back on top 100 lists. Diaz/Ray had down years, but they are incredibly young and have plenty of time to adjust and improve. No sense in panicking on them as many of you did with Phillips.

[reillymcshane]

Hitting a professionally pitched baseball is a skill, not an athletic feat. Doesn't matter how athletic a person is, it will never help him hit the ball. That's job #1 of a position player.

I think every scout and baseball talent evaluator would disagree with you. Your ability as an athlete contributes to how good (or bad) you are at accomplishing some task or feat or skill - whatever you want to call it. It's certainly not the only thing, but it's a huge deal. And in professional baseball, athleticism is what teams will bank on when looking at a player's upside - particularly position players.

 

It's why you can take dozens of 15 year old kids who have been playing a particular sport (baseball, basketball, whatever) for 10 years, and have one kid who has never played the sport walk in and be better than all of them in short order.

 

I saw a quote from one scout who said something to the effect of he would almost always bet on the athletic kid with great raw skills over the polished kid with low athleticism (he was talking about minor league prospects). Why? The good athlete is the one who will be able to keep up to the 100 mph fastball or adjust to the improving change ups and curves or whatever other pitches that a player faces as they head up the minor league ladder. Athleticism allows a player to hit the ball harder, run faster, react quicker. It's why when we hear descriptions of exceptional players you sometimes have terms like 'quick twitch' or 'twitchy' used to describe them. Again, athleticism is not the only thing. Being a baseball player is so much more - practice, intelligence, etc. But athleticism is often what helps a player rise above other guys.

 

Scouts love athletic guys because they are the ones that often have the best chance to be difference makers in the big leagues.

[Never Outhustled]

Hitting a professionally pitched baseball is a skill, not an athletic feat. Doesn't matter how athletic a person is, it will never help him hit the ball. That's job #1 of a position player.

I think every scout and baseball talent evaluator would disagree with you. Your ability as an athlete contributes to how good (or bad) you are at accomplishing some task or feat or skill - whatever you want to call it. It's certainly not the only thing, but it's a huge deal. And in professional baseball, athleticism is what teams will bank on when looking at a player's upside - particularly position players.

 

It's why you can take dozens of 15 year old kids who have been playing a particular sport (baseball, basketball, whatever) for 10 years, and have one kid who has never played the sport walk in and be better than all of them in short order.

 

I saw a quote from one scout who said something to the effect of he would almost always bet on the athletic kid with great raw skills over the polished kid with low athleticism (he was talking about minor league prospects). Why? The good athlete is the one who will be able to keep up to the 100 mph fastball or adjust to the improving change ups and curves or whatever other pitches that a player faces as they head up the minor league ladder. Athleticism allows a player to hit the ball harder, run faster, react quicker. It's why when we hear descriptions of exceptional players you sometimes have terms like 'quick twitch' or 'twitchy' used to describe them. Again, athleticism is not the only thing. Being a baseball player is so much more - practice, intelligence, etc. But athleticism is often what helps a player rise above other guys.

 

Scouts love athletic guys because they are the ones that often have the best chance to be difference makers in the big leagues.

 

Sorry, but Ray isn't a great athlete, if he was he'd be a SS. He's not even an infielder. Arcia is a great athlete, Ray is just fast, he doesn't have coordination or body control.

 

Ray is also not young, he's 23. He's just a few months younger than Phillips and Brinson. However, he's years behind them developmentally, and hasn't progressed at the plate.

 

MLB Pipeline is just sloppy. Their writers are hype men who no longer put in their time on the rankings.

[KeithStone53151]

Hitting a professionally pitched baseball is a skill, not an athletic feat. Doesn't matter how athletic a person is, it will never help him hit the ball. That's job #1 of a position player.

I think every scout and baseball talent evaluator would disagree with you. Your ability as an athlete contributes to how good (or bad) you are at accomplishing some task or feat or skill - whatever you want to call it. It's certainly not the only thing, but it's a huge deal. And in professional baseball, athleticism is what teams will bank on when looking at a player's upside - particularly position players.

 

It's why you can take dozens of 15 year old kids who have been playing a particular sport (baseball, basketball, whatever) for 10 years, and have one kid who has never played the sport walk in and be better than all of them in short order.

 

I saw a quote from one scout who said something to the effect of he would almost always bet on the athletic kid with great raw skills over the polished kid with low athleticism (he was talking about minor league prospects). Why? The good athlete is the one who will be able to keep up to the 100 mph fastball or adjust to the improving change ups and curves or whatever other pitches that a player faces as they head up the minor league ladder. Athleticism allows a player to hit the ball harder, run faster, react quicker. It's why when we hear descriptions of exceptional players you sometimes have terms like 'quick twitch' or 'twitchy' used to describe them. Again, athleticism is not the only thing. Being a baseball player is so much more - practice, intelligence, etc. But athleticism is often what helps a player rise above other guys.

 

Scouts love athletic guys because they are the ones that often have the best chance to be difference makers in the big leagues.

 

Sorry, but Ray isn't a great athlete, if he was he'd be a SS. He's not even an infielder. Arcia is a great athlete, Ray is just fast, he doesn't have coordination or body control.

 

Ray is also not young, he's 23. He's just a few months younger than Phillips and Brinson. However, he's years behind them developmentally, and hasn't progressed at the plate.

 

MLB Pipeline is just sloppy. Their writers are hype men who no longer put in their time on the rankings.

 

So outfielders can't be good athletes? Reeeeeeeally?

 

Do you have any basis for your comments on coordination or body control? Ray is still very young. He'll be under team control for a few more years and has time to work on things and make it to the show.

 

I will agree that many writers buy into the hype a bit too much. That's why the tops of these lists tend to be littered with big market names. I'm sure the cubs will manage to get 4 guys into the next top 100 despite not having one prospects deserving of it.

[adambr2]

Man, the Cubs better not. That system is atrocious.