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2017 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster


Mass Haas
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Rule 5 question...

 

Let's say that Kyle Wren is part of the return in a Chris Archer trade today. Can the Rays put Wren on the 40-man and thus protect him from the Rule 5 draft? Or could Wren still be selected since he was not on a 40-man roster before the deadline even though he would have changed organizations?

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While I'm not discounting it entirely, I think the likelihood that the Brewers lose a pitcher is less than 30 percent. During the last three drafts, every minor league reliever picked fell into one of three categories 1) guys with a 9.0 or better K/9; 2) lefties; 3) lefties with a 9.0 or better K/9.

 

None of the names mentioned fall into any of those categories. I guess Archer could if you argue Colorado Springs hurt his K numbers, but even then most of the guys picked are 11 K/9 guys who might have some command problems or who are simply caught in a numbers game. That's never been either Archer (best season 9.0) or Uhen (best season 8.1). Preston Gainey might fall into that category, but he has barely topped 30 innings the last two years combined. Both Archer and Uhen are at least somewhat interesting as prospects, but a lot of teams probably have those type of guys who were left off the 40 man.

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I'd think Wren has only a minimal chance of getting selected. While he would not likely be a wasted roster spot, he's most likely be a 5th outfielder with a ceiling of a 4th outfielder or maybe a marginal starting CF. That doesn't seem to be a good target for Rule 5, given that it will hurt roster flexibility, which is needed at the bottom of the 25 man roster.

 

If there is a team that is really lacking in outfielders at the major league and AAA levels, then grabbing Wren would make a lot of sense.

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