2017 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster

[jerichoholicninja]

Frankly, don’t see any reason to worry about protecting Nottingham. Stashing a guy in the bullpen is one thing, stashing a back up catchers back up is a loss of a valuable bench spot.

 

Except 3 teams did it last year.

[Outlander]

Yep, that line of thinking is kind of gone after last year.

[djoctagone]

is it telling that taylor jungmann wasn't outrighted to the minor leagues when carlos torres and quintin berry were, and that the brewers are considering him as a possibility for the 2018 starting rotation?

 

by this time last year, the brewers (in offseason transactions) had already outrighted garin cecchini, jake elmore, sean nolin and andy wilkins. by 7 november last year, the brewers also outrighted yhonathan barrios, josmil pinto and ben rowen.

five open spots on the 40-man. with the rule 5 draft protection deadline monday, it's a little peculiar that we haven't seen more players moved off the 40-man roster. granted, the 2016 brewers had less promise than the 2017 team, so it made sense to outright all of those players.

 

of course, there's still time for the club to open up more roster spots. maybe they're thinking it'll be harder for other teams to try to claim waived players if they're cut on monday, just as teams are adding their own prospects to their rosters.

[NYChez]

Frankly, don’t see any reason to worry about protecting Nottingham. Stashing a guy in the bullpen is one thing, stashing a back up catchers back up is a loss of a valuable bench spot.

 

Except 3 teams did it last year.

 

Was the situation similar: keeping a catcher who hit .209 in AA and plays poor defense on the 25-man for the entire year?

[Lathund]

Frankly, don’t see any reason to worry about protecting Nottingham. Stashing a guy in the bullpen is one thing, stashing a back up catchers back up is a loss of a valuable bench spot.

 

Except 3 teams did it last year.

 

Was the situation similar: keeping a catcher who hit .209 in AA and plays poor defense on the 25-man for the entire year?

 

In the case of the Padres it was .250 (.687 OPS, basically same as Nottingham) in A and A-. Don't know about the defense. But yeah, similar enough. Don't know about the other cases.

 

Will someone take him? No idea. I don't know enough about how to evaluate catcher defense, or project offensive skills, to say. But at the same time, what does a rebuilding team like the White Sox have to lose?

[Outlander]

The date for protecting players is Monday but it doesn't mean they won't outright others later. If they see somebody left unprotected or released during the roster crunch that is better than Wang, Webb, Jungmann etc. then they won't think twice about outrighting them. Same thing with free agents, if the 40 man is full after Monday I wouldn't read into it that they won't be active in free agency.

[Roderick]

 

Was the situation similar: keeping a catcher who hit .209 in AA and plays poor defense on the 25-man for the entire year?

 

In the case of the Padres it was .250 (.687 OPS, basically same as Nottingham) in A and A-. Don't know about the defense. But yeah, similar enough. Don't know about the other cases.

 

Will someone take him? No idea. I don't know enough about how to evaluate catcher defense, or project offensive skills, to say. But at the same time, what does a rebuilding team like the White Sox have to lose?

 

I am going to assume that Padres catcher was at least good if not very good defensively. I can see stashing a no-hit (now), defensive catcher on the bench for a season that you can put in for the last inning or two and not worry about the defense, but I don't get that kind of impression that Nottingham is that good defensively to do that (at this time). I'm not worried about having too many catchers on the 40 man, as I want the most talent regardless of position, and Susac/Bandy will either hit or be gone anyways. But I wouldn't risk losing someone that matters for Nottingham.

[Boomer5]

Nottingham has given the club no reason to waste a valuable 40 man slot.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Watch something weird get announced before I finish posting this, but I've got a feeling Nottingham is the only real question mark. Peralta is a definite lock, Dubon is probably close and I'd be surprised if they leave Diplan out after losing Diaz. Similarly, I can't see anyone else getting added now that we know Ramirez and Ventura didn't. If Orf had more power or was looked at as being able to play shortstop or center field well, he get protected, but as it stands I doubt he ends up on the roster. I guess Archer is a dark horse, but he could have been added and called up late in the year if they were that high on him.

[KeithStone53151]

Nottingham has given the club no reason to waste a valuable 40 man slot.

 

Nottingham has improved significantly since last season. Keep in mind he was a 21 year old catcher in AA last year, obviously still young for the league at 22 this year. His slash line improved from 234/295/347 to 209/326/369. Avg went down slightly, but the other number improved. His BB rate increased from 6.4% to 9.6% and his k rate decreased from 30.3% to 22.6%. His BABIP also went from .320 down to .255 last year, suggesting he was very unlucky on balls in play last year. And that doesn't mention his fielding, which improved significantly from last season. He dropped from 21 PB to 9 and improved from 29% CS rate to 40%. I wouldn't be surprised to see him bumped to AAA to start next season and potentially enjoy a breakout year.

[Boomer5]

Nottingham has given the club no reason to waste a valuable 40 man slot.

 

Nottingham has improved significantly since last season. Keep in mind he was a 21 year old catcher in AA last year, obviously still young for the league at 22 this year. His slash line improved from 234/295/347 to 209/326/369. Avg went down slightly, but the other number improved. His BB rate increased from 6.4% to 9.6% and his k rate decreased from 30.3% to 22.6%. His BABIP also went from .320 down to .255 last year, suggesting he was very unlucky on balls in play last year. And that doesn't mention his fielding, which improved significantly from last season. He dropped from 21 PB to 9 and improved from 29% CS rate to 40%. I wouldn't be surprised to see him bumped to AAA to start next season and potentially enjoy a breakout year.

 

A sub 700 in AA means he is not 40 man worthy. If it wasn't for what we traded to get him he wouldn't ever be in this conversation.

[CheeseheadInQC]

A sub 700 in AA means he is not 40 man worthy. If it wasn't for what we traded to get him he wouldn't ever be in this conversation.

 

Catchers are a bit of a different beast. While he has a better defensive reputation, the Rangers just protected a catcher who couldn't crack a .600 OPS at AA, and he's older than Nottingham. I doubt you find too many sub-24 year old catchers who get even a .700 OPS in AA or AAA and don't get protected, especially if they are seen as having solid offensive projection.

 

To me, the decision on Nottingham will speak to how the Brewers view his defensive progress. If they believe he is well on his way to being even an average defender behind the plate, I don't think they risk exposing him to the Rule 5 draft. If they don't, well the improved peripherals aren't enough to protect him as a first baseman.

[Outlander]

Mass had it right from the start.

[MadThinker88]

Mass had it right from the start.

 

Well done Mass...

[reillymcshane]

In case anyone wants to know what was actually done:

 

Mauricio Dubon, Jacob Nottingham, Freddy Peralta, Marcos Diplan were added to the 40-man roster.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2017/11/20/brewers-expected-protecdubon-peralta-top-minor-league-prospects-brewers-expected-protect-rule-5-draf/880307001/

[LouisEly]

Mass had it right from the start.

Technically no, he did not - he posted that before the Brewers added Wilkerson. He missed on him.

 

One person did have it right from the start (we're counting "Probablys", right?)...

[Humans Need Water]

Nottingham has given the club no reason to waste a valuable 40 man slot.

 

Nottingham has improved significantly since last season. Keep in mind he was a 21 year old catcher in AA last year, obviously still young for the league at 22 this year. His slash line improved from 234/295/347 to 209/326/369. Avg went down slightly, but the other number improved. His BB rate increased from 6.4% to 9.6% and his k rate decreased from 30.3% to 22.6%. His BABIP also went from .320 down to .255 last year, suggesting he was very unlucky on balls in play last year. And that doesn't mention his fielding, which improved significantly from last season. He dropped from 21 PB to 9 and improved from 29% CS rate to 40%. I wouldn't be surprised to see him bumped to AAA to start next season and potentially enjoy a breakout year.

Thank you for saving my time presenting this info. But I'll add to it. He did a better job of getting the ball off the ground as his ground ball rate dropped 3.2% as well. Not only do his BB and K rate indicate significant improvements in his approach but so does the fact he dropped his pull rate by 6.4% and increased his middle rate by 5.5% and oppo rate by 0.9%. He also finished with a wRC+ of 103 - slightly better than average and much improved upon his 87 last year. (side note: he also played 95 innings at 1b without an error).

 

Additionally, people continue to view catchers in the same light as position players when they're not even remotely close. Catchers have significant learning curves compared to position players due to everything involved with their position - building rapport with every pitcher on staff, calling pitches, framing pitches, blocking balls in the dirt, throwing to different bases and the positioning/footwork involved, mental side of catching, etc. And that's just one side of the ball. Every catcher is different when it comes to development. But the *younger* a catcher is for level the greater the challenge and learning curve. He was still 2yrs young for level - that's still young. Offensively, catchers suck as a whole in general. At every level. Of the 25 catchers that had 300+ AB only 14 hit above 255. Of those 25 there were 17 with a 335 or lower OBP. 10 had an OPS of 735 or lower.

 

Nottingham should continue to be challenged and start in AAA. He absolutely should have been protected and without hesitation. All 4 that were protected were obvious choices.

[KeithStone53151]

Nottingham has given the club no reason to waste a valuable 40 man slot.

 

Nottingham has improved significantly since last season. Keep in mind he was a 21 year old catcher in AA last year, obviously still young for the league at 22 this year. His slash line improved from 234/295/347 to 209/326/369. Avg went down slightly, but the other number improved. His BB rate increased from 6.4% to 9.6% and his k rate decreased from 30.3% to 22.6%. His BABIP also went from .320 down to .255 last year, suggesting he was very unlucky on balls in play last year. And that doesn't mention his fielding, which improved significantly from last season. He dropped from 21 PB to 9 and improved from 29% CS rate to 40%. I wouldn't be surprised to see him bumped to AAA to start next season and potentially enjoy a breakout year.

 

A sub 700 in AA means he is not 40 man worthy. If it wasn't for what we traded to get him he wouldn't ever be in this conversation.

 

Oh cool, you grabbed one stat that supports your opinion and ignored all evidence to the contrary. Monte Harrison posted a 631 OPS as a 21 year old in Wisconsin last year. That's after posting a sub 500 ops in Wisconsin the year prior. We probably should have just cut him right? OPS is all that matters when evaluating prospects. How do scouts even have jobs when all it comes down to is OPS?

[pacopete4]

KeithStone I know we are not supposed to have so much sarcasm around here but your post killed me.

[82brewcrew82]

[sarcasm]Oh come now. You know darn good and well that all prospect development is perfectly linear and that you can get all the information you need with a quick glance at baseball reference.[/sarcasm]

[djoctagone]

if kyle wren again makes it past the rule 5 draft, i predict that he'll once again be the last man standing in spring camp, all the way through the exhibition series in houston. though it'd be nice for the brewers to officially invite him to big league camp this time.

[pacopete4]

If no one takes a shot at him in the rule 5 draft, isn't it more ammo for those that say he doesn't belong on a major league roster?

[KeithStone53151]

If no one takes a shot at him in the rule 5 draft, isn't it more ammo for those that say he doesn't belong on a major league roster?

 

It's pretty common for the Brewers to keep a couple pitchers and position players that are guaranteed to not make the final 25 with the team to the very end of spring training to fill in where needed. Wren being a guy that can play all the outfield spots well makes him ideal to be an extra outfielder to carry to the end of camp. It's generally more necessary for pitchers, as in spring training guys have a very specific schedule/regimen. What happens if a pitcher is planned to go 30 pitches in 2 innings and he has a bad inning?...someone has to fill that gap. I don't think DJ is trying to argue that it makes him more likely to open on the 25 man.

[Jaylyn]

Now that the speculation is over and let us assume the 40 man roster remains the same, who do you possibly see being drafted?

Tristan Archer is a given, some pitching poor team will give him a shot.

Kyle Wren, have to admit love The Wren, perfect 4th outfielder. Play all three positions, speed, would be

great coming off the bench as a pinch hitter.

IMO, those two are gone.

 

Possible:

Nate Orf, let me channel my inner Ned Yost, he's a scrappy battler! Would be worthy of being the 25th on many teams roster.

 

Let me put two more names out there. Josh Uhen and Tyler Spurlin. Given the state of pitching today i would not be surprised if someone takes either of these two and buries them deep in the bullpen.

[KeithStone53151]

Now that the speculation is over and let us assume the 40 man roster remains the same, who do you possibly see being drafted?

Tristan Archer is a given, some pitching poor team will give him a shot.

Kyle Wren, have to admit love The Wren, perfect 4th outfielder. Play all three positions, speed, would be

great coming off the bench as a pinch hitter.

IMO, those two are gone.

 

Possible:

Nate Orf, let me channel my inner Ned Yost, he's a scrappy battler! Would be worthy of being the 25th on many teams roster.

 

Let me put two more names out there. Josh Uhen and Tyler Spurlin. Given the state of pitching today i would not be surprised if someone takes either of these two and buries them deep in the bullpen.

 

The only teams that might take Archer/Uhen/Spurlin are teams with terrible farm systems and poor MLB pitching. Maybe the Orioles, Angels, someone like that. Wren I feel like is highly likely to tag on somewhere. I also think Orf is more likely than any of those pitchers to get snagged.

 

Overall, I don't think there's any sneaky low level talent that someone could sneak in and take...like Miguel Diaz last year.