2017 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster

[LouisEly]

There is maybe one guy with Wilkerson's profile drafted each year. It wouldn't shock me if he is protected or picked, but I'd put the odds at about 75 percent that he doesn't start next season on a 40-man roster. I just think he'll be this year's version of previous upper minor league starters we've fretted about losing only to see them not end up drafted (Wang and Cravy, for example).

How many guys fitting Wilkerson's profile (under 30, very good minor league numbers as a starting pitcher, K/9 > 9.0, low walk totals) have even been exposed to the Rule 5 draft? If they aren't even exposed in the first place they can't be drafted.

 

What % of guys fitting Wilkerson's profile have been protected, and of those who haven't, what % of those have been picked? That's the question.

[CheeseheadInQC]

How many guys fitting Wilkerson's profile (under 30, very good minor league numbers as a starting pitcher, K/9 > 9.0, low walk totals) have even been exposed to the Rule 5 draft? If they aren't even exposed in the first place they can't be drafted.

 

What % of guys fitting Wilkerson's profile have been protected, and of those who haven't, what % of those have been picked? That's the question.

 

While he might not have had quite the K numbers, Cravy was coming off a season with a sub-2.00 ERA at AA and a sub-1.00 WHIP. Wang's season last year wasn't too far off either. And both were at least three years younger.

 

I'm a fan of Wilkerson and am intrigued by what he could do if he gets a shot, but starting pitchers who aren't living on prospect lists often have to prove themselves level-to-level, and that is where Colorado Springs has really hurt Wilkerson. He's got nothing left to prove in AA and didn't really even to start the season, but there he still is.

 

But who knows, I don't exactly have a good prediction record this year.

[djoctagone]

I would say regardless of whether they add Nottingham to the 40, I see Susac being DFA. His showing this year in AAA & MLB has been quite poor. With having both Vogt and Bandy as backups and Susac out of options, I see the likelihood of Susac being let go is very high.

susac will enter 2018 spring training with one minor league option remaining. the three other catchers currently on the 40-man will be out of options in 2018.

[Greenleaf1]

I would say regardless of whether they add Nottingham to the 40, I see Susac being DFA. His showing this year in AAA & MLB has been quite poor. With having both Vogt and Bandy as backups and Susac out of options, I see the likelihood of Susac being let go is very high.

susac will enter 2018 spring training with one minor league option remaining. the three other catchers currently on the 40-man will be out of options in 2018.

 

I kinda forgot that this was the case. To me, this is a strong indicator that Bandy will be traded during the offseason. It's going to be hard for him to keep a roster spot over Vogt, and if we can't option him we're just going to lose him anyways.

 

Obviously this makes his trade value pretty low so I wouldn't expect much. If Susac has an option year and can make it past the rule 5 draft and still be on the 40-man, then I think he's got a good shot to stay there at least until the start of the 2018 season.

[Mass Haas]

My own prediction - Mauricio Dubon, Jacob Nottingham, Freddy Peralta, Marcos Diplan

 

On the bubble - I'm sure there will be fans of protecting Kyle Wren, Nate Orf, Aaron Wilkerson, maybe even a Johnny Davis. Keep in mind that if you're advocating adding LHP/1B Nick Ramirez or RHP Angel Ventura from the minor league free agency thread, that's going to impact available 40-man roster spots as well.

 

Feel free to chime in here.

 

Mr. Wilkerson says I better amend my pick.

 

I agree with Mr. Wilkerson.

 

Thank you, Aaron Hill and Dave Dombrowski.

[djoctagone]

the brewers have four players that can declare free agency after the world series wraps up (matt garza, eric sogard, anthony swarzak and neil walker) to open up four spots for brewers prospects.

 

it is possible for the brewers to resign one of those free agents to a minor league deal with an invitation to major league camp with the understanding that he'll be added back to the 40-man (and 25-man) roster after jimmy nelson is placed on the 60-day disabled list.

[KeithStone53151]

the brewers have four players that can declare free agency after the world series wraps up (matt garza, eric sogard, anthony swarzak and neil walker) to open up four spots for brewers prospects.

 

it is possible for the brewers to resign one of those free agents to a minor league deal with an invitation to major league camp with the understanding that he'll be added back to the 40-man (and 25-man) roster after jimmy nelson is placed on the 60-day disabled list.

 

When you say "one of those free agents", I assume you mean Sogard? That would be a clever way of handling the roster space.

[Outlander]

Probably too risky for the player, I'm sure Sogard can get a guaranteed contract for at least a year after what he did in 2017.

[djoctagone]

as a sign of good faith to the player, the club could give someone like sogard a minor league salary equal to his major league salary. it'd be obvious by that point that the club has every intention of adding sogard to the 40-man (and 25-man) after placing nelson on the 60-day disabled list, because they wouldn't pay him all that money to play in the minors.

[gregmag]

This is a really good discussion. People haven't done the usual off/on thing yet. Who comes off the 40-man to offset the adds?

 

I think Mass nailed the adds. Wilkerson is already added, so the conversation about him seems over, at least for the moment.

 

I'll assume for now that any MLB/AAAA reliever who comes off will just be replaced with another MLB/AAAA reliever, so I'll ignore guys like Drake, Torres, and Webb. It seems reasonable that we could dump one reliever and use his spot for another kind of player, but I don't think the Brewers will do that. (Maybe they don't think of Espino as a reliever who needs replacing; in that event, he could go and open up a spot.)

 

The catching situation is interesting. As discussed above, a lot depends on Susac's health. If they think he'll be back to his old self, they'll keep him. They have to add Nottingham. They won't be able to rely confidently on either of those guys as the #2 right away (hopefully Susac gets there quickly), which means I think they keep one of Garcia, Bandy, and Vogt. So we stick with four catchers.

 

With relief pitcher and catcher numbers held constant, and with Wilkerson already taken care of, we still need to add:

Diplan

Dubon

Peralta

 

Whom do we dump or let walk (again, aside from catchers and relief pitchers)? The locks are:

Berry

Garza

 

The other possibilities seem to be:

Sogard

Walker

Reed

 

Maybe we resign one of the infielders (neither of them excites me, but I can see the cases for both) and let Dubon replace the other one. Losing Reed would mean only five OFs on the 40-man, not counting Perez. Given Braun's and Brinson's injury histories, we may want to keep Reed or replace him in the OF rotation.

 

Even so, the numbers seem to work pretty easily. Diplan and Peralta take the Berry and Garza spots; Dubon takes the Sogard or Walker spot.

[Outlander]

Reed was removed from the 40 man in July so he isn't a potential removal, can't see him being added back either. I think you can factor in relievers because there is usually a non roster invitee or two that makes the 25 man roster. I could easily see Peralta/Diplan added and Webb/Torres removed without another AAAA type player added to the 40 man in the off season. They will probably look to replace Drake though with a real left handed reliever.

[gregmag]

Thanks. I forgot Reed had been bounced, and the first source that came up (Baseball Cube) had him still on. I hope you're right about the org's willingness to thin out the relief suspects a little.

[LouisEly]

Baseball-reference.com has an up-to-date 40-man roster, as does the Brewers official site.

 

Most likely to be removed: Berry, Garza, Walker (he said he will test FA), Sogard (said he wants to come back but is a FA), Swarzak (same as Sogard), Torres, Webb, Wang. That's eight, and they only need space for four.

 

Plenty of guys to remove to add Peralta, Dubon, Diplan, Nottingham, perhaps Orf if Sogard isn't back or Villar is traded.

 

The bigger question is who will need to be added next year? That's when the HS players from 2014 (Harrison, Gatewood, Medeiros, Stokes, Yamamoto) and the college players from 2015 (Kirby, Ponce, Perrin, QTC, Owenby) are eligible. That's when the roster crunch starts.

 

Don't be surprised if the Brewers package a few of these guys this offseason in a deal to acquire a starter.

[CheezWizHed]

as a sign of good faith to the player, the club could give someone like sogard a minor league salary equal to his major league salary. it'd be obvious by that point that the club has every intention of adding sogard to the 40-man (and 25-man) after placing nelson on the 60-day disabled list, because they wouldn't pay him all that money to play in the minors.

 

You could also give him an "out" at the end of Spring training that states he is a FA if he isn't on the 25 man roster.

[djoctagone]

(Maybe they don't think of Espino as a reliever who needs replacing; in that event, he could go and open up a spot.)

paolo espino was traded to texas for cash in august, after being designated for assignment. aaron brooks took his spot on the 40-man and was later outrighted off the 40-man.

[markedman5]

RHP Carlos Torres and OF Quintin Berry have been outrighted to Triple-A @skysox.

[LouisEly]

Lock: Dubon, Peralta, Diplan, Wilkerson

Probably: Nottingham

If room: Orf, Archer, Uhen

 

Coming off of injury, I don't think anyone is taking a flyer on Devin Williams, but I understand the sentiment.

I think this is looking pretty spot-on. Garza and Walker become free agents, resign Swarzak (he said he really wants to return), leaves four spots - Dubon, Peralta, Diplan, Nottingham.

 

Although with the Brewers resigning Sogard, there might be a chance they protect Orf if they deal Villar.

[clancyphile]

My four locks would be: Orf, Peralta, Nottingham, Wilkerson

Dubon and Diplan don't have the production that would lead a MLB team to take them over the course of a 162-game season.

[brewmann04]

People feel Dubon is another top prospect and they wont lose him

[djoctagone]

My four locks would be: Orf, Peralta, Nottingham, Wilkerson

good news . . . one of your four locks was added to the 40-man in september and pitched one hell of a game on the final day of the season.

[adambr2]

My four locks would be: Orf, Peralta, Nottingham, Wilkerson

Dubon and Diplan don't have the production that would lead a MLB team to take them over the course of a 162-game season.

 

And Nottingham does? I'm not even saying Nottingham will be left off. I'm just saying you can't saying that Dubon and Diplan won't because of production and then call Nottingham a lock.

 

Dubon will be on the 40. No doubt, unless traded.

[Lathund]

Dubon will definitely be taken if left unprotected. Which he won't be.

[djoctagone]

for all of those clamoring for jacob nottingham to be added to the 40-man roster, bear in mind that doing so would leave them with five catchers on the 40-man roster--three of them out of options.

 

however, it's doubtful that the brewers would add nottingham without cutting one of the four current catchers on the roster first. the deadline to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players is after the rule 5 draft protection deadline, so if they're thinking of non-tendering stephen vogt, they better do it ahead of time (like they did with carlos torres).

[Kelbysdaddy]

Frankly, don’t see any reason to worry about protecting Nottingham. Stashing a guy in the bullpen is one thing, stashing a back up catchers back up is a loss of a valuable bench spot.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Dubon will definitely be taken if left unprotected. Which he won't be.

 

Yep, if there's one offensive position that can be justified taking up with a Rule 5 guy, it is Utility Infielder ... especially one who has a couple above-average tools. Dubon profiles as a slap-hitting, speedy top-of-the-order bat with good defense. Plus he is young and in the upper levels of the minors. If he's unprotected, not only is he picked, he's a top-3 pick.

 

Chances are better that he's the starting 2B on opening day than him being left unprotected for the Rule 5. There is no doubt that team will have some talented players available for the Rule 5, but Dubon isn't going to be one. Sterns just loves his quick-twitch middle infielder types too much.