Brewers Trade for Neil Walker

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers have a critical road trip coming up. Walker was likely acquired to see if he could give them an offensive spark heading into that trip. If they lose a lot of ground, I would expect that Walker will be moved again before end of August. Not that Walker wouldn't be a bad target in FA this winter.

[rwa12]

Equally likely that the Mets don't want to have to turn around and protect him in the Rule 5, wastes a slot.

[RobDeer 45]

I didn't have time to run through the whole thread but saw some people wanting us to either go for it with big trades or don't do anything and sell off any short term assets (if we have any). I think DS is doing the right thing by making little moves to see if he can help out a team that is overachieving. I strongly think we shouldn't be doing anything drastic. Stick to the plan and make our move in a few years. Anything prior to that is could put everything at risk for the future. As William Wallace said in Braveheart.... HOOOOOLD, HOOOOOOLD, HOOOOOOOLD

[brwrsfan]

The Brewers have a critical road trip coming up. Walker was likely acquired to see if he could give them an offensive spark heading into that trip. If they lose a lot of ground, I would expect that Walker will be moved again before end of August. Not that Walker wouldn't be a bad target in FA this winter.

 

I thought about this recently as well...what are everyone's thoughts on resigning him? He's had a down year, but what would his potential free agent contract look like? He's been a solid left handed bat for his career, has some pop, can play all over the infield. He is going to turn 32 in September, which is slightly scary I guess. Thoughts?

 

If we did sign him, that pushes Villar into a backup role (but probably still starting 2-3 times a week as Walker can move around).

[bill hAll Star]

I'd be a fan of bringing Walker back for a 1-2 year contract. 3 max. There is plenty of room to spend the next few years.

 

I think the issue is, depending on what Neil wants, this is his last year to cash in on a 3-5 year contract.

 

I'd pay a higher dollar value to make it a 2-year contract.

[KeithStone53151]

The Brewers have a critical road trip coming up. Walker was likely acquired to see if he could give them an offensive spark heading into that trip. If they lose a lot of ground, I would expect that Walker will be moved again before end of August. Not that Walker wouldn't be a bad target in FA this winter.

 

I thought about this recently as well...what are everyone's thoughts on resigning him? He's had a down year, but what would his potential free agent contract look like? He's been a solid left handed bat for his career, has some pop, can play all over the infield. He is going to turn 32 in September, which is slightly scary I guess. Thoughts?

 

If we did sign him, that pushes Villar into a backup role (but probably still starting 2-3 times a week as Walker can move around).

 

We have Villar currently and a few good 2b options coming through the system. I would roll into next year with Villar on the inside track for a starting job and a veteran or 2 on minor league contracts as depth in ST. If Villar fails, Dubon or veteran or Perez would fill that gap next year. By 2019, I would like to think Hiura or Diaz will have moved up in the system and start getting considered for the MLB 2b role. Signing Walker to a 2 year deal could work if you had a ton of faith in him and none in Villar. If he had a good year, that contract could be tradeable after the first year if Hiura or Diaz are pounding on the door. I personally would rather role with Villar and our prospects and use that payroll on pitching.

[pacopete4]

What is everyone seeing in Dubon that I'm missing just by looking at his stats? Seems to get on base a bit and some steals(but gets caught a bit too). Other than that he has zero power and his BA is just alright. What screams starting MLB two bagger?

[Austin Tatious]

I like Dubon as a prospect, but more as a backup if Arcia or our 2b (Diaz, Hiura, Walker) go on the DL. It's nice to have a quality guy who can fill in.

 

Now, he only has 17 extra base hits. He has a nice frame and I think he will fill out so I expect these numbers to improve.

[KeithStone53151]

What is everyone seeing in Dubon that I'm missing just by looking at his stats? Seems to get on base a bit and some steals(but gets caught a bit too). Other than that he has zero power and his BA is just alright. What screams starting MLB two bagger?

 

Nothing really screams starting 2b. He's a solid hitter with speed and plays good defense. His career minor league slash line is 299/349/404/753. He's probably more of a Perez type guy in that super utility role when he fully develops. His career SB% is around 75%, which is very good if that percentage translates to MLB. Dubon isn't nearly as dynamic as Villar or have nearly the upside of Diaz/Hiura, he could be a decent stopgap option if Villar fails in 2018 rather than spending a bunch on 2b.

[Jose Cardenal1]

I see Dubon as the eventual replacement for Hernan Perez. A super utility guy. Better Ave/OBP than Perez but significantly less power.

 

Agree with those suggesting resigning Walker but only to a two year or less deal.

[bill hAll Star]

What is everyone seeing in Dubon that I'm missing just by looking at his stats? Seems to get on base a bit and some steals(but gets caught a bit too). Other than that he has zero power and his BA is just alright. What screams starting MLB two bagger?

 

Nothing really screams starting 2b. He's a solid hitter with speed and plays good defense. His career minor league slash line is 299/349/404/753. He's probably more of a Perez type guy in that super utility role when he fully develops. His career SB% is around 75%, which is very good if that percentage translates to MLB. Dubon isn't nearly as dynamic as Villar or have nearly the upside of Diaz/Hiura, he could be a decent stopgap option if Villar fails in 2018 rather than spending a bunch on 2b.

 

I've kinda gotten into this debate on other threads/twitter/boards, etc. but if one thinks that 2B is a need, why not overspend on 2B? This assumes that Mark is willing to pay his usual $100+ million on the roster, but it's time to overpay a few guys hopefully on short deals to fill short-term roster holes. We can dump a ton of money into relief pitching, maybe a starting pitcher if we feel it's an upgrade, or 2B. Nowhere else justifies $ spent right now.

 

If Walker is willing to stay for 2 (3 max) years then it's a perfect situation. If he's truly washed up then you go back to Villar or Dubon but you're no worse off than you were before because adding Walker to the payroll for 2-3 years is not prohibitive of keeping any player we value over that timeframe and probably doesn't stop us from adding anything at positions of need.

[KeithStone53151]

Nothing really screams starting 2b. He's a solid hitter with speed and plays good defense. His career minor league slash line is 299/349/404/753. He's probably more of a Perez type guy in that super utility role when he fully develops. His career SB% is around 75%, which is very good if that percentage translates to MLB. Dubon isn't nearly as dynamic as Villar or have nearly the upside of Diaz/Hiura, he could be a decent stopgap option if Villar fails in 2018 rather than spending a bunch on 2b.

 

I've kinda gotten into this debate on other threads/twitter/boards, etc. but if one thinks that 2B is a need, why not overspend on 2B? This assumes that Mark is willing to pay his usual $100+ million on the roster, but it's time to overpay a few guys hopefully on short deals to fill short-term roster holes. We can dump a ton of money into relief pitching, maybe a starting pitcher if we feel it's an upgrade, or 2B. Nowhere else justifies $ spent right now.

 

If Walker is willing to stay for 2 (3 max) years then it's a perfect situation. If he's truly washed up then you go back to Villar or Dubon but you're no worse off than you were before because adding Walker to the payroll for 2-3 years is not prohibitive of keeping any player we value over that timeframe and probably doesn't stop us from adding anything at positions of need.

 

It's more of an opportunity cost thing. Money spent on 2b is money that can't be spent on pitching. Imagine where this team could be if all else remained the same, Villar become a solid 2b option(or someone internal did) but we add a TOR pitcher and rock solid LH setup man in free agency heading into 2018? It's harder to make moves for impact talent when you $5 and $10 million your payroll away. We need to have as many solid guys on minimum and arbitration contracts as possible, and ideally only having one or two holes and being able to fill it with expensive impact talent to push us over the edge rather than back end starting pitching.

[CheezWizHed]

I didn't have time to run through the whole thread but saw some people wanting us to either go for it with big trades or don't do anything and sell off any short term assets (if we have any). I think DS is doing the right thing by making little moves to see if he can help out a team that is overachieving. I strongly think we shouldn't be doing anything drastic. Stick to the plan and make our move in a few years. Anything prior to that is could put everything at risk for the future. As William Wallace said in Braveheart.... HOOOOOLD, HOOOOOOLD, HOOOOOOOLD

 

But WW died at the end too... and lost the war... Not that I disagree with your intent, but just sayin...

[bill hAll Star]

Nothing really screams starting 2b. He's a solid hitter with speed and plays good defense. His career minor league slash line is 299/349/404/753. He's probably more of a Perez type guy in that super utility role when he fully develops. His career SB% is around 75%, which is very good if that percentage translates to MLB. Dubon isn't nearly as dynamic as Villar or have nearly the upside of Diaz/Hiura, he could be a decent stopgap option if Villar fails in 2018 rather than spending a bunch on 2b.

 

I've kinda gotten into this debate on other threads/twitter/boards, etc. but if one thinks that 2B is a need, why not overspend on 2B? This assumes that Mark is willing to pay his usual $100+ million on the roster, but it's time to overpay a few guys hopefully on short deals to fill short-term roster holes. We can dump a ton of money into relief pitching, maybe a starting pitcher if we feel it's an upgrade, or 2B. Nowhere else justifies $ spent right now.

 

If Walker is willing to stay for 2 (3 max) years then it's a perfect situation. If he's truly washed up then you go back to Villar or Dubon but you're no worse off than you were before because adding Walker to the payroll for 2-3 years is not prohibitive of keeping any player we value over that timeframe and probably doesn't stop us from adding anything at positions of need.

 

It's more of an opportunity cost thing. Money spent on 2b is money that can't be spent on pitching. Imagine where this team could be if all else remained the same, Villar become a solid 2b option(or someone internal did) but we add a TOR pitcher and rock solid LH setup man in free agency heading into 2018? It's harder to make moves for impact talent when you $5 and $10 million your payroll away. We need to have as many solid guys on minimum and arbitration contracts as possible, and ideally only having one or two holes and being able to fill it with expensive impact talent to push us over the edge rather than back end starting pitching.

 

I agree going forward, but right now the payroll will be somewhere between $45 and $65 million for 2018 and 2019 for 18-22 players depending on if we non-tender Vogt or most of the relief options (Torres, Hughes, etc). Of course, plenty will change, but the fact remains that we'll have 85% of the roster solved for $50-60 million for the next 2 seasons.

 

Now, I wouldn't have a problem overpaying one of the top pitchers on the market just if we can, but the years likely will bleed into the years that it matters because a player like that comes at 5 or 6 years of commitment. That's probably even fine for one guy. The only names out there are Cobb, Lynn, Chatwood, Darvish (probably not), maybe a few others...but not many names that will fall to us and come at the right price.

 

Point being, if we can fill the bullpen, maybe a starter, probably 2B with guys that will only be 1-2, maybe a 3rd year committment (this assumes Mark wants to pay his usual $100-110 million competing price, then overpaying Walker to hang around for 2 years does not affect any of the desires that you mention above.

 

You could pay Walker 2 years, $30 million (total) and still have plenty of money to sign the top setup man on the market and maybe buy a cheaper starter or 1-2 more relievers if you so choose.

 

Also trading for guys that cost a bit more is an option.

[Thurston Fluff]

What is everyone seeing in Dubon that I'm missing just by looking at his stats? Seems to get on base a bit and some steals(but gets caught a bit too). Other than that he has zero power and his BA is just alright. What screams starting MLB two bagger?

 

Nothing really screams starting 2b. He's a solid hitter with speed and plays good defense. His career minor league slash line is 299/349/404/753. He's probably more of a Perez type guy in that super utility role when he fully develops. His career SB% is around 75%, which is very good if that percentage translates to MLB. Dubon isn't nearly as dynamic as Villar or have nearly the upside of Diaz/Hiura, he could be a decent stopgap option if Villar fails in 2018 rather than spending a bunch on 2b.

 

I've kinda gotten into this debate on other threads/twitter/boards, etc. but if one thinks that 2B is a need, why not overspend on 2B? This assumes that Mark is willing to pay his usual $100+ million on the roster, but it's time to overpay a few guys hopefully on short deals to fill short-term roster holes. We can dump a ton of money into relief pitching, maybe a starting pitcher if we feel it's an upgrade, or 2B. Nowhere else justifies $ spent right now.

 

If Walker is willing to stay for 2 (3 max) years then it's a perfect situation. If he's truly washed up then you go back to Villar or Dubon but you're no worse off than you were before because adding Walker to the payroll for 2-3 years is not prohibitive of keeping any player we value over that timeframe and probably doesn't stop us from adding anything at positions of need.

 

I don't think overpaying is ever a good idea. All it does is frustrate fans and make others on the team who actually earn their paycheck want more when their time comes. If we overpay for someone how can we expect anyone else to accept fair market value? Especially if it is signing one of our own to an extension. They would look at what some outsider got an be offended they aren't being offered the same.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't think overpaying is ever a good idea. All it does is frustrate fans and make others on the team who actually earn their paycheck want more when their time comes. If we overpay for someone how can we expect anyone else to accept fair market value? Especially if it is signing one of our own to an extension. They would look at what some outsider got an be offended they aren't being offered the same.

 

Veterans by definition and rule are overpaid. Anyone that is a good MLB player past their arbitration days is close to or actually overpaid.

 

Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager make $500k. Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford (out of baseball), Andre Ethier all make in the range of $20 million/year. How is that working out?

 

The Astros paid Carlos Beltran $16 million to fill in as DH this year. Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, John Lackey all make 15-20 times more money than Kris Bryant annually.

 

Arcia, Santana, Nelson, etc. will all get their payday. That's how this works. We have room under Mark's yearly budget to fill some holes. Would you rather Neil Walker play 2B and Swarzak + 2 good pen arms come to the Brewers or would you rather stick with what we have and let the ownership group buy a few more yachts?

 

Now, if the Brewers sign several guys to big 5 or 6 year contracts we have issues because then it will affect our ability to bring Nelson, Anderson, Arcia, Santana, etc. back.

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't think overpaying is ever a good idea. All it does is frustrate fans and make others on the team who actually earn their paycheck want more when their time comes. If we overpay for someone how can we expect anyone else to accept fair market value? Especially if it is signing one of our own to an extension. They would look at what some outsider got an be offended they aren't being offered the same.

 

Veterans by definition and rule are overpaid. Anyone that is a good MLB player past their arbitration days is close to or actually overpaid.

 

Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager make $500k. Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford (out of baseball), Andre Ethier all make in the range of $20 million/year. How is that working out?

 

The Astros paid Carlos Beltran $16 million to fill in as DH this year. Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, John Lackey all make 15-20 times more money than Kris Bryant annually.

 

Arcia, Santana, Nelson, etc. will all get their payday. That's how this works. We have room under Mark's yearly budget to fill some holes. Would you rather Neil Walker play 2B and Swarzak + 2 good pen arms come to the Brewers or would you rather stick with what we have and let the ownership group buy a few more yachts?

 

Now, if the Brewers sign several guys to big 5 or 6 year contracts we have issues because then it will affect our ability to bring Nelson, Anderson, Arcia, Santana, etc. back.

 

Just because overpaying veterans is common doesn't make it the right thing to do.

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't think overpaying is ever a good idea. All it does is frustrate fans and make others on the team who actually earn their paycheck want more when their time comes. If we overpay for someone how can we expect anyone else to accept fair market value? Especially if it is signing one of our own to an extension. They would look at what some outsider got an be offended they aren't being offered the same.

 

Veterans by definition and rule are overpaid. Anyone that is a good MLB player past their arbitration days is close to or actually overpaid.

 

Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager make $500k. Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford (out of baseball), Andre Ethier all make in the range of $20 million/year. How is that working out?

 

The Astros paid Carlos Beltran $16 million to fill in as DH this year. Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, John Lackey all make 15-20 times more money than Kris Bryant annually.

 

Arcia, Santana, Nelson, etc. will all get their payday. That's how this works. We have room under Mark's yearly budget to fill some holes. Would you rather Neil Walker play 2B and Swarzak + 2 good pen arms come to the Brewers or would you rather stick with what we have and let the ownership group buy a few more yachts?

 

Now, if the Brewers sign several guys to big 5 or 6 year contracts we have issues because then it will affect our ability to bring Nelson, Anderson, Arcia, Santana, etc. back.

 

Just because overpaying veterans is common doesn't make it the right thing to do.

[Boomer5]

I'd be a fan of bringing Walker back for a 1-2 year contract. 3 max. There is plenty of room to spend the next few years.

 

I think the issue is, depending on what Neil wants, this is his last year to cash in on a 3-5 year contract.

 

I'd pay a higher dollar value to make it a 2-year contract.

 

The guy will have made $17.2M this year. Even at a discount he is way out of our price range.

 

Especially with Dubon and Hiura down on the farm.

[bill hAll Star]

Just because overpaying veterans is common doesn't make it the right thing to do.

 

It actually is completely the right thing to do if:

 

A. Mark is willing to pay $100 million or so for contending years which he seems to want to do.

 

B. The contracts are not prohibitive of future years of being able to keep your young players.

 

The Brewers have a ton of money to spend (assuming A) for the next 2 offseasons and only 3 or 4 roster spots to fill with them. Get the best player money can buy if it's a short contract.

 

I think you'd agree that bullpen is one of the biggest issues right now. You mean to tell me that you'd rather roll with Blazek, let Swarzak walk, Barnes, Jeffress, and all of those other options next season instead of 2 guys that are much better pitchers that would only be 1-2 year contracts and Mark has earmarked the money for 2018 and 2019 payroll?

[KeithStone53151]

Big markets can get away with overpaying for vets. Our margin for error is much smaller. If the dodgers make a bad signing for 25 million/year for 5 years...who cares, they still have another 225 million they can use to fill out their roster. This isn't an issue for big markets until you become the 2010 cubs and have 5+ guys signed to bad contracts that are also stinking up your mlb roster. If we make a bad signing for even 10 million for a couple years, that's a massive burden.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't think you guys are understanding this.

 

I'm strongly assuming that Mark Attanasio has earmarked about $90-100 million (or a little bit more) per season when the Brewers are competitive. That's how it has gone in the past. It's a year-to-year thing. If we have a $60 million payroll this year that doesn't mean he'll add $40 million a few years from now on top of his $110-120 million max if we really need it.

 

Knowing that, the Brewers have every offensive position but maybe 2B solved or it has a young player that clearly has the position locked for next year and probably 2019. The rotation could be improved but we have plenty of depth. RP is a weakness.

 

The Brewers have $50-60 million tied up in the majority of their roster for each 2018 and 2019. You're telling me that if Mark Attanasio has earmarked $100 million for those rosters. You're telling me that you'd decline short-term signings of earmarked money? There is no conceivable downside to this save for the veterans being worse than potential replacements.

[KeithStone53151]

Just because overpaying veterans is common doesn't make it the right thing to do.

 

It actually is completely the right thing to do if:

 

A. Mark is willing to pay $100 million or so for contending years which he seems to want to do.

 

B. The contracts are not prohibitive of future years of being able to keep your young players.

 

The Brewers have a ton of money to spend (assuming A) for the next 2 offseasons and only 3 or 4 roster spots to fill with them. Get the best player money can buy if it's a short contract.

 

I think you'd agree that bullpen is one of the biggest issues right now. You mean to tell me that you'd rather roll with Blazek, let Swarzak walk, Barnes, Jeffress, and all of those other options next season instead of 2 guys that are much better pitchers that would only be 1-2 year contracts and Mark has earmarked the money for 2018 and 2019 payroll?

 

Mark A has said that savings from these low payroll years will be rolled in to future years. I also think our TV deal and revenue sharing has improved to the point that the 100-110 million might be lower than it could be in competing years at this point, but that's a different topic. We shouldn't make deals that we think might be bad deals just because we have money to burn and it won't affect future years. I'm confident Stearns will sign quality players to fair value contracts this off season to help the club, almost all of which will likely be in the bullpen.

[KeithStone53151]

I don't think you guys are understanding this.

 

I'm strongly assuming that Mark Attanasio has earmarked about $90-100 million (or a little bit more) per season when the Brewers are competitive. That's how it has gone in the past. It's a year-to-year thing. If we have a $60 million payroll this year that doesn't mean he'll add $40 million a few years from now if we really need it.

 

Knowing that, the Brewers have every offensive position but maybe 2B solved or it has a young player that clearly has the position locked for next year and probably 2019. The rotation could be improved but we have plenty of depth. RP is a weakness.

 

The Brewers have $50-60 million tied up in the majority of their roster for each 2018 and 2019. You're telling me that if Mark Attanasio has earmarked $100 million for those rosters. You're telling me that you'd decline short-term signings of earmarked money? There is no conceivable downside to this save for the veterans being worse than potential replacements.

 

Most people are simply saying don't make a bad deal just to spend all the money earmarked for this year. I don't think anyone is opposed to addressing areas of need by signing quality players to fair value contracts.

[bill hAll Star]

Mark A has said that savings from these low payroll years will be rolled in to future years. I also think our TV deal and revenue sharing has improved to the point that the 100-110 million might be lower than it could be in competing years at this point, but that's a different topic. We shouldn't make deals that we think might be bad deals just because we have money to burn and it won't affect future years. I'm confident Stearns will sign quality players to fair value contracts this off season to help the club, almost all of which will likely be in the bullpen.

 

But by the logic of the poster you're agreeing with above, these players will be overpaid. The reliever market isn't great the next few years so we're likely going to have to settle for the Swarzaks and not not the Kimbrels of the world.

 

I think that keeping Swarzak would help as he's one of the top names on the market. I can guarantee that if you plug in his expected production to the contract he gets (if we can hopefully get a shortened deal) it will be an "overpaid" player.

 

Mike Cameron was overpaid for his production in 2008 and 2009 but nobody cares because his production was much, much better than the minimum salary or fringe-MLB veteran we'd have had to have filled in his position if we decided that overpaying Mike Cameron was not worth it.