2018 Starting Rotation

[monty57]

Darvish is better than Arrieta, but neither of them scream "this is the guy I want to give 1/4 of my payroll to for four or five seasons." I would rather spend less for a younger innings-eating #3 guy and use the extra money to bring in a couple of solid setup guys for the 'pen.

 

I'm not fooling myself into thinking we're the proverbial "one piece away from a World Series," but adding the above-mentioned pieces should make us a better team "on paper" than we were this year, so I think the Brewers have a decent shot at the playoffs. The chance is at least good enough that we should fill the obvious holes in the roster.

 

If we end up with excess arms, that will be a good problem that will be easy to fix. We have Nelson and Anderson for three more years, and Davies for four. If enough prospects prove themselves worthy of a rotation spot, it should be easy to trade Anderson, Nelson (if healthy) or Davies in a year or two for a good haul in talent. After a lifetime of watching the junk the Brewers have had in their rotation, I would be ecstatic to see us in a position that we had too many good pitchers so we were trading some vets away to make room for the youngsters.

[bill hAll Star]

Darvish is better than Arrieta, but neither of them scream "this is the guy I want to give 1/4 of my payroll to for four or five seasons." I would rather spend less for a younger innings-eating #3 guy and use the extra money to bring in a couple of solid setup guys for the 'pen.

 

I'm not fooling myself into thinking we're the proverbial "one piece away from a World Series," but adding the above-mentioned pieces should make us a better team "on paper" than we were this year, so I think the Brewers have a decent shot at the playoffs. The chance is at least good enough that we should fill the obvious holes in the roster.

 

If we end up with excess arms, that will be a good problem that will be easy to fix. We have Nelson and Anderson for three more years, and Davies for four. If enough prospects prove themselves worthy of a rotation spot, it should be easy to trade Anderson, Nelson (if healthy) or Davies in a year or two for a good haul in talent. After a lifetime of watching the junk the Brewers have had in their rotation, I would be ecstatic to see us in a position that we had too many good pitchers so we were trading some vets away to make room for the youngsters.

 

You've done a good job at summing up my exact thoughts in less words than I could.

 

I will make one correction - Anderson is now under our control for 4 more seasons.

[FVBrewerFan]

I will throw you guys a bone. We're all talking as if Hader will be in the rotation to start the year. Don't get me wrong, myself included. But the Brewers haven't said that, or really even hinted at that- at lest not yet. So, if they keep Hader in the pen then I agree they need to go out and find a SP. I still wouldn't want a big contract guy, but at that point thy would simply need somebody to round out the rotation.

[clancyphile]

First, I just wanted to say it's nice to have debates like this without name calling, taking comments out of context, etc. Must say, it's very refreshing!

 

Here's what I'm trying to figure out about your position. (And to be fair, not just you, but a lot of people who would be at least open to signing an Arrieta or someone for 4 years/ $100MM.)

 

If you believe they are closer to 76-86, do you really think Arrieta is worth another 15wins or so it would take to win the division? Not to mention being a legit WS contender?

 

I don't want to tank. But I also don't want to start spending real money until the rotation is more settled, and most of the position players as well. You have to get the fire started a little before you throw the big wood on it. The Cardinals model is fine, but you have to get there first before you can maintain.

 

I can't speak for the previous poster, but my thinking is that I don't want to tank, but I still think the Brewers are far enough away that 2018 is a good season to try to stretch out Hader and Suter, and to see if those two along with Jungmann and Woodruff can be contributors in the rotation. This also buys a year for Burnes/Ortiz/Peralta/Ponce/Derby to develop.

 

I will admit, I am torn with Hader. Part of me wants to keep him where he excelled, and give the Crew a

Knebel/Hader/Jeffress/Williams "Nasty Boys" bullpen, with a rotation of Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Suter, and Jungmann.

 

Even if these are back-end of the rotation types, it's better to develop them in-house than to spend $10-12 million a year for a Matt Garza, Kyle Lohse, Jeff Suppan, or Randy Wolf, or to trade top prospects for them.

[rickh150]

I wanted Hader to start games for the Brewers last year.

 

Two things changed that.... seeing his solid results as a guy that coud go an inning or three in relief; but more than that the way he pitched. His mainly fastball arsenal with max effort wouldn't seem to translate well to starting pitching. Unless this guy is Randy Johnson, his best success will most likely be in his current role. Who throws like him with success as a starter? Most other MLB starting lefties have some finesse in their game that saves their arm and keeps pitch count lower by throwing more strikes. Even in relief I remember seeing his fastball speeds dropping a few ticks in inning two or three.

 

I can't imagine the Brewers even trying to mess with him and stretch him out in ST. My guess is that he is their Plan C for the rotation behind filling rotation with FA/trades and other young starters in the system. They might say they haven't decided anything with him yet, but I'd be shocked if they started him a game in the regular season.

[brewcrewdue80]

Sure Hader threw mostly FBs, 81% according to Fangraphs, but 11% were Sliders and 7% were Changeups. Pretty close split on 2nd and 3rd pitch. Looking at game logs, 3 times he pitched 3innings total, the highest for him and each he only gave up 1 hit. 5 of 7 of his 2-2.2 IP had 0 hits with the 2.1/2.2 giving up 2hits. those 5 with 0 hits were 2IP total.

 

Don't want to try him as a starter? No, let's give Suter/Wilkerson the starts and Hope they get 5IP right?

 

Only 6 of the 14 games started by Suter did he get 5+IP. 16 of 24 for Wilkerson in the minors. But only 10 Quality starts in his 24 starts.

 

It'd be terrible for the club to keep Hader in the Bullpen and not give him some Starts over running Suter/Wilkerson out there.

 

You know what Hader can bring to the Bullpen with just mostly FBs. Let the guy who'll be only 24 for the '18 season start and see how his other 2 pitches play out beyond 3innings. Figuring with Innings limit, it would leave him around 18 starts with the rest of the season down in the pen. That gives guys like Nelson, Burnes, Ortiz to push back in to the rotation when he's being stashed in the pen.

You can't promise 100% health. You start off the year with him in the pen and he suffers that TJ surgery, you would have missed him showing off what he has as starter.

[clancyphile]

Sure Hader threw mostly FBs, 81% according to Fangraphs, but 11% were Sliders and 7% were Changeups. Pretty close split on 2nd and 3rd pitch. Looking at game logs, 3 times he pitched 3innings total, the highest for him and each he only gave up 1 hit. 5 of 7 of his 2-2.2 IP had 0 hits with the 2.1/2.2 giving up 2hits. those 5 with 0 hits were 2IP total.

 

Don't want to try him as a starter? No, let's give Suter/Wilkerson the starts and Hope they get 5IP right?

 

Only 6 of the 14 games started by Suter did he get 5+IP. 16 of 24 for Wilkerson in the minors. But only 10 Quality starts in his 24 starts.

 

It'd be terrible for the club to keep Hader in the Bullpen and not give him some Starts over running Suter/Wilkerson out there.

 

You know what Hader can bring to the Bullpen with just mostly FBs. Let the guy who'll be only 24 for the '18 season start and see how his other 2 pitches play out beyond 3innings. Figuring with Innings limit, it would leave him around 18 starts with the rest of the season down in the pen. That gives guys like Nelson, Burnes, Ortiz to push back in to the rotation when he's being stashed in the pen.

You can't promise 100% health. You start off the year with him in the pen and he suffers that TJ surgery, you would have missed him showing off what he has as starter.

 

Some of Suter's major-league starts came after he was on the DL late in August, so he probably had to work back up. Prior to the injury, he pitched 44.1 innings, and threw 687 pitches. That's an average of 5.5 innings and just under 86 pitches a start. In that last start, prior to his injury and DL stint, he threw 100 pitches. In his last three starts, he averaged 5 innings and just under 70 pitches a game.

 

It doesn't hurt to try Suter in the rotation as well... if he's stretched out from the start of the year, and there's none of this bullpen-rotation/AAA-MLB stuff, I think he could easily give the Crew a quality start most of the time. He's certainly earned a shot.

 

EDIT: By comparison, Davies threw 3089 pitches over 33 starts, an average of 93.6 per game. Nelson averaged just under 95 pitches a game (2,752 over 29 starts).

[JohnBriggs12]

Am I the only one who thinks the Brewers have the ideal bounce back starter already on their roster? Everyone seems to dismiss Junior Guerra. His hamstring injury on opening day set him back the entire year. But he performed well in his minor league stint starting, and when he returned to pitch out of the pen as sort of the forgotten guy, his velocity was back. Who knows if Counsell had left him in on the next to last game what would have happened? There was only one ball hit hard off him in that fateful 3rd inning.

[Mr Southpaw]

Am I the only one who thinks the Brewers have the ideal bounce back starter already on their roster? Everyone seems to dismiss Junior Guerra. His hamstring injury on opening day set him back the entire year. But he performed well in his minor league stint starting, and when he returned to pitch out of the pen as sort of the forgotten guy, his velocity was back. Who knows if Counsell had left him in on the next to last game what would have happened? There was only one ball hit hard off him in that fateful 3rd inning.

 

Good point. He was our best pitcher this time last year.

[MoreTrife]

Am I the only one who thinks the Brewers have the ideal bounce back starter already on their roster? Everyone seems to dismiss Junior Guerra. His hamstring injury on opening day set him back the entire year. But he performed well in his minor league stint starting, and when he returned to pitch out of the pen as sort of the forgotten guy, his velocity was back. Who knows if Counsell had left him in on the next to last game what would have happened? There was only one ball hit hard off him in that fateful 3rd inning.

 

 

I don't recall his velocity being back...

[DR28]

I really hope we make a hard push for Chatwood... And I honestly wouldnt mind taking a flyer on Miles.

 

Anderson

Davies

Chatwood

Woodruff

Mikolas

 

That is a very solid rotation until Jimmy returns.

 

Then we should focus on Addison Reed and another Lefty (Watson or Minor) for the pen.

[DR28]

I really hope we make a hard push for Chatwood... And I honestly wouldnt mind taking a flyer on Miles.

 

Anderson

Davies

Chatwood

Woodruff

Mikolas

 

That is a very solid rotation until Jimmy returns.

 

Then we should focus on Addison Reed and another Lefty (Watson or Minor) for the pen.

 

Or sign Chatwood and give Guerra another shot.

[KeithStone53151]

I really hope we make a hard push for Chatwood... And I honestly wouldnt mind taking a flyer on Miles.

 

Anderson

Davies

Chatwood

Woodruff

Mikolas

 

That is a very solid rotation until Jimmy returns.

 

Then we should focus on Addison Reed and another Lefty (Watson or Minor) for the pen.

 

I'm not so sure I would hate this, aside from the most obvious piece in that Hader should be a frontrunner for a rotation spot to start the season. Aside from that, both Chatwood and Mikolas have some degree of upside along with some risk. But the dollars won't be too bad and we have reinforcements coming if one should fail. Neither contract should force us to keep them in the rotation if they aren't getting it done.

 

Reed and a lefty is pretty much the dream moves as far as I'm concerned from a bullpen standpoint. I'd target a lesser lefty, maybe Zach Duke, if I was calling the shots.

 

I think it's safe to assume that Stearns has given Mikolas a very significant look, will be interesting if he pulls the trigger on that.

[TJseven7]

Anderson davies nelson look like keepers

Kids like suter woodruff ortiz hader peralta burnes moving up they system.

Guys like jungemann guerra still hanging around.

 

Yet I see a lot of people wanting to buy pitching. Don't we need spaces available to see what we have here? Even if you love a hader peralta to the pen idea and suter to the pen as a long loogy... woodruff nelson burnes ortiz are only 0, .5, .8, and 1.5 years away? I'm all for signing a short term bounce back possible trade chip but I'm having a hard time seeing where the need to add is because adding also is blocking.

[adambr2]

Anderson davies nelson look like keepers

Kids like suter woodruff ortiz hader peralta burnes moving up they system.

Guys like jungemann guerra still hanging around.

 

Yet I see a lot of people wanting to buy pitching. Don't we need spaces available to see what we have here? Even if you love a hader peralta to the pen idea and suter to the pen as a long loogy... woodruff nelson burnes ortiz are only 0, .5, .8, and 1.5 years away? I'm all for signing a short term bounce back possible trade chip but I'm having a hard time seeing where the need to add is because adding also is blocking.

 

We can't count on Nelson for anything right now, unfortunately. I think we have to assume right now that 2018 will be a lost season for him, and he may not be the same even when he does return.

 

If the best case scenario turns out there, great. But I think we need to prepare for the worst.

[brewmann04]

I don't think Guerra will be a starter and no one sure of Nelson Time table so we must go get pitching think the winter meetings should be interesting

[TJseven7]

Ok so then here's another question. People love aces. I understand why. The direction of playoff baseball is also taking them further and further out of the equation. Knebel hader peralta swarzak xxx. Should we try to get a bunch of 3 to 3.5 era guys for the rotation and a bad boys bullpen or focus on getting that ace. Charlie Morton isnt someone anyone would call an ace but he was pretty fantastic. CC is an ace in name mostly. Yu was awful but he's an ace. Do we think anderson woodruff davies (if he's not in a yips phase) burnes cant get us a strong 4-5 innings?

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I don't think the bullpen can consistently go 4-5 innings every game and be effective over a 162 game season. You need your starter to get into the 6th inning or later occasionally to give the bullpen a break. Unless CC starts to use the bullpen differently with a lot of multiple inning outings be the bullpen (like Hader did). That means we need a "really" good and unique bullpen.

[coolhandluke121]

I don't think the bullpen can consistently go 4-5 innings every game and be effective over a 162 game season. You need your starter to get into the 6th inning or later occasionally to give the bullpen a break. Unless CC starts to use the bullpen differently with a lot of multiple inning outings be the bullpen (like Hader did). That means we need a "really" good and unique bullpen.

 

Personally I think long relief is an under-utilized option, and the Brewers have enough versatility to carry 8 relievers. More pitching changes can also allow you to have less pa's for your starters. I don't know how often a reliever can pitch 2-3 innings and you would need a lot of injury data before even considering something like that, but I would rather plan around a starter like Suter with 8 relievers and some shuttle service AAAA guys than go down the beaten path and overpay starters in free agency.

 

ETA: Most starters have much worse stats 3rd time through the order too, so changing the starter/reliever paradigm could be an innovation that takes the league by storm if anyone ever tries it and has some success with it.

[brewmann04]

It be nice to see them go back old school were the starters went say 7

[coolhandluke121]

It be nice to see them go back old school were the starters went say 7

 

Why? If people devised a superior strategy that made this a thing of the past, what can you do?

[KeithStone53151]

It be nice to see them go back old school were the starters went say 7

 

Why? If people devised a superior strategy that made this a thing of the past, what can you do?

 

I think the superior strategy thing came up more out of necessity than it being superior. The Bumgarners/Kershaws/Sales of the world trump the bullpen strategy. I would guess part of the problem is that all 30 teams have a real shot of retaining these ace caliber pitchers at least through their primes, so it's not as common for a team like the Yankees or Red Sox to get their hands on 2-3 of the top 10 arms in the league consistently that they can easily ride deep into the playoffs.

[brewmann04]

this way takes a bullpen much more I believe but its the way of baseball

[coolhandluke121]

 

I think the superior strategy thing came up more out of necessity than it being superior.

 

If it addressed that necessity, then it's a superior strategy. There's no reason to believe starters are regularly going to go 7 innings because people have figured out that the more complicated strategy of selective bullpen use and specialists has worked better. Those that understand it will implement it and be successful. Those that are stuck in their ways who can't understand or accept that the standards have changed will survive only as long as their bosses don't understand the changes either (see: Baker, Dusty).

[brewmann04]

Too many special type of pitchers now IMO but gotta go with the crowd