2018 Starting Rotation

[TURBO]

Kind of surprising but there is no club option for Matt Garza in 2018 according to Adam McCalvy so I guess we don't have to worry about it anymore.

 

YES!

 

[3and2Fastball]

Kind of surprising but there is no club option for Matt Garza in 2018 according to Adam McCalvy so I guess we don't have to worry about it anymore.

 

The Angels will sign him because.... well, that is just how the Angels roll.

[MadThinker88]

link to the Garza story (for those interested)....

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/09/matt-garza-does-not-have-2018-option-will-become-free-agent.html

[LouisEly]

I'd really like to see the Brewers pay big money for Alex Cobb.

 

Cobb is a nice pitcher but since missing a full season his strikeouts dropped from in the 8's per 9 to in the 6's per 9. We would be signing him at age 30 (he's never hit 200 innings in his career) and moving forward. That'd not terribly old but it is heading to the wrong end of it. I just would hate for us to go out at sign some 30+-year-old guy and we trek down the same path we have been on when trying to fill out our rotations. It really handcuffs a lot of the moves you can make. Not completely dismissing Cobb but just something to think about when we bring up guys like him.

Cobb is a 30-year-old Matt Garza. Numbers are eerily similar. Cobb's 2017 FIP vs. Garza's career FIP are almost exactly the same, both have the same career K/9, Cobb's 2017 HR/9 is slightly higher than Garza's career HR/9, and Cobb missed almost two years with injury.

 

His ERA is pretty, but the peripherals say he isn't as good as his ERA, and definitely has injury risk.

[KeithStone53151]

I'd really like to see the Brewers pay big money for Alex Cobb.

 

Cobb is a nice pitcher but since missing a full season his strikeouts dropped from in the 8's per 9 to in the 6's per 9. We would be signing him at age 30 (he's never hit 200 innings in his career) and moving forward. That'd not terribly old but it is heading to the wrong end of it. I just would hate for us to go out at sign some 30+-year-old guy and we trek down the same path we have been on when trying to fill out our rotations. It really handcuffs a lot of the moves you can make. Not completely dismissing Cobb but just something to think about when we bring up guys like him.

Cobb is a 30-year-old Matt Garza. Numbers are eerily similar. Cobb's 2017 FIP vs. Garza's career FIP are almost exactly the same, both have the same career K/9, Cobb's 2017 HR/9 is slightly higher than Garza's career HR/9, and Cobb missed almost two years with injury.

 

His ERA is pretty, but the peripherals say he isn't as good as his ERA, and definitely has injury risk.

 

It's actually worse than that if his k rate is similar to Matt Garza, who was in his prime 5+ years ago and k rates are spiking since then.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Ya, I'd pass on Cobb. I'm done with signing mediocre SP for long term deals (Suppan, Wolf, Garza). Unless we get a TOR starter in a trade or FA, I'd rather just go with the kids on the farm. Go with Wilkerson, A. Ventura, Jungmann to begin with and then Derby, F.Peralta, Burnes, Ponce, Ortiz if they fail. They have a lot of options.

[clancyphile]

Ya, I'd pass on Cobb. I'm done with signing mediocre SP for long term deals (Suppan, Wolf, Garza). Unless we get a TOR starter in a trade or FA, I'd rather just go with the kids on the farm. Go with Wilkerson, A. Ventura, Jungmann to begin with and then Derby, F.Peralta, Burnes, Ponce, Ortiz if they fail. They have a lot of options.

 

Don't forget Jon Perrin!

 

But, yeah... no need to blow $15 million a year on a 5.00 ERA starter.

[LouisEly]

Between tonight's game and the playoff 7-inning no-hitter, I'm not sure what Wilkerson needs to do to get a chance as the #5 next year. Barring any trades it looks like Anderson/Davies/Woodruff/Wilkerson, and one of Hader/Suter with the other in the bullpen. Behind them they'll have Houser, Burnes, Peralta, Ortiz, and Perrin for depth at the upper levels. Jungmann is another option, but the fact that they didn't bring him up at all speaks volumes; he's out of options, so I think he's gone.

 

I don't see any reason to go out and spend a ton of money in free agency on a pitcher. If they can trade for one and eat some salary (such as Samardzjia, etc.) so that they don't have to give up any top prospects that's a very viable option.

[Never Outhustled]

Between tonight's game and the playoff 7-inning no-hitter, I'm not sure what Wilkerson needs to do to get a chance as the #5 next year. Barring any trades it looks like Anderson/Davies/Woodruff/Wilkerson, and one of Hader/Suter with the other in the bullpen. Behind them they'll have Houser, Burnes, Peralta, Ortiz, and Perrin for depth at the upper levels. Jungmann is another option, but the fact that they didn't bring him up at all speaks volumes; he's out of options, so I think he's gone.

 

I don't see any reason to go out and spend a ton of money in free agency on a pitcher. If they can trade for one and eat some salary (such as Samardzjia, etc.) so that they don't have to give up any top prospects that's a very viable option.

 

 

Don't forget the joke of a lineup the Cards fielded today. Wilkerson did great, but he was only good in AA this year, not great.

 

I do agree that signing a pitcher isn't priority #1. However, they probably have enough money to sign a hitter and a pitcher.

[LouisEly]

Wilkerson did great, but he was only good in AA this year, not great.

And that's why I said #5 starter.

 

(And he was 3rd in the Southern League in strikeouts, and had a higher K rate than Allard and Soroka.)

[markedman5]

Nelson and Chase were both in the top 20 in hard hit rate allowed......Davies at 62....right he t to Greinke

 

[djoctagone]

is it telling that taylor jungmann wasn't outrighted to the minor leagues when carlos torres and quintin berry were, and that the brewers are considering him as a possibility for the 2018 starting rotation?

 

by this time last year, the brewers (in offseason transactions) had already outrighted garin cecchini, jake elmore, sean nolin and andy wilkins. by 7 november last year, the brewers also outrighted yhonathan barrios, josmil pinto and ben rowen.

 

i'm not suggesting that the brewers exercise wily peralta-esque patience with jungmann, but given his minor league performance in 2017 (plus based on that he made the club out of spring training before being optioned), one has to think with jimmy nelson out, jungmann is back in the mix for the 2018 starting rotation.

[Outlander]

Jungmann is on the list of potential starters but a longshot, he is also a possibility in the bullpen. As they add minor leaguers to the 40 man and sign other free agents Jungmann may be one of the guys to go but no rush right now. Maybe even a minor trade piece.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Jungman is out of options next year so he will either be in the rotation/bullpen or on the waiver wire.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Jungman should absolutely factor in next year's opening day pitching staff - IMO he'd be at worst a good fit as the middle relief/spot starting innings eater...if he has a good spring I'm sure he could be stretched out enough to serve as the #5 as needed.

[brewmann04]

I think we might see Jungmann somewhere on the brewers staff

[KeithStone53151]

I think we might see Jungmann somewhere on the brewers staff

 

It is wildly unlikely that Jungmann opens in the rotation, barring a miraculous uptick in velocity at his age. His mechanics are prone to serious control problems, and his stuff isn't good enough to get away with control issues. Maybe Jungmann would have had a shot on the 2017 bullpen, but the bar will be much higher for this team than the 2017 team. I think Jungmann and Drake are being kept around solely for depth, if kept at all. I think there's a very real chance that we try to sneak one or both through waivers and outright to AAA at some point this offseason.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think we might see Jungmann somewhere on the brewers staff

 

It is wildly unlikely that Jungmann opens in the rotation, barring a miraculous uptick in velocity at his age. His mechanics are prone to serious control problems, and his stuff isn't good enough to get away with control issues. Maybe Jungmann would have had a shot on the 2017 bullpen, but the bar will be much higher for this team than the 2017 team. I think Jungmann and Drake are being kept around solely for depth, if kept at all. I think there's a very real chance that we try to sneak one or both through waivers and outright to AAA at some point this offseason.

 

That's the problem. Same problem the Bucks have had for over a decade. Fighting to get better every single year, so they're the 5th best team in the NL instead of the 6th.

 

2017 was an unexpected surprise, and it was fun. But I don't expect them to make a big jump in 2018, in fact I would fine if their record was worse. It's still all about acquiring and developing young talent, and adding them to the 25 when they're ready to contribute.

 

That's it. I don't want to see them get a FA starter, or trade for one. No, I want those starts to go to Hader and Wilkerson and eventually Burnes, Peralta, Ortiz, Houser, Perrin, Ponce and anyone else on the verge over the next two seasons.

 

I think they have enough there to build a really good rotation in-house, and spend big money on a bat or two when the time is right.

[pacopete4]

I hope the bar is higher. It should be. I want the organization to get to a point where expectations are high for this team so that guys realize that we are in this to win. 2018 should be one of those years, even if it is with a bunch of young guys. Create a culture of winning. Gotta start somewhere.

[FVBrewerFan]

No doubt the team should believe the bar is higher. Just like 2017, when they were supposed to be one of the worst teams, they ignored that and exceeded expectations. That's a good thing, you should always expect to win as a player. As a fan though, I would be way more encouraged if Arcia, Phillips, Brinson, Woodruff, Hader, and Burnes had great years but they win 10 less games.

[adambr2]

No doubt the team should believe the bar is higher. Just like 2017, when they were supposed to be one of the worst teams, they ignored that and exceeded expectations. That's a good thing, you should always expect to win as a player. As a fan though, I would be way more encouraged if Arcia, Phillips, Brinson, Woodruff, Hader, and Burnes had great years but they win 10 less games.

 

If those players all have great years and we win 10 less games, something sure went very wrong elsewhere.

[KeithStone53151]

I think we might see Jungmann somewhere on the brewers staff

 

It is wildly unlikely that Jungmann opens in the rotation, barring a miraculous uptick in velocity at his age. His mechanics are prone to serious control problems, and his stuff isn't good enough to get away with control issues. Maybe Jungmann would have had a shot on the 2017 bullpen, but the bar will be much higher for this team than the 2017 team. I think Jungmann and Drake are being kept around solely for depth, if kept at all. I think there's a very real chance that we try to sneak one or both through waivers and outright to AAA at some point this offseason.

 

That's the problem. Same problem the Bucks have had for over a decade. Fighting to get better every single year, so they're the 5th best team in the NL instead of the 6th.

 

2017 was an unexpected surprise, and it was fun. But I don't expect them to make a big jump in 2018, in fact I would fine if their record was worse. It's still all about acquiring and developing young talent, and adding them to the 25 when they're ready to contribute.

 

That's it. I don't want to see them get a FA starter, or trade for one. No, I want those starts to go to Hader and Wilkerson and eventually Burnes, Peralta, Ortiz, Houser, Perrin, Ponce and anyone else on the verge over the next two seasons.

 

I think they have enough there to build a really good rotation in-house, and spend big money on a bat or two when the time is right.

 

So basically, if you had your way we would tank every year and aim for the number 1 pick? Baseball and basketball have different dynamics. In basketball it's all about having a couple star players and surrounding them with a good supporting cast. If you don't have Lebron/Durant/Giannis/etc, you might as well tank and try to get the 19 year old version with a top 3 pick. And those top picks don't fail at nearly the rate of MLB top picks. The high picks of the Cubs/Astros helped to some degree, but they had so much talent develop from lower draft picks and savvy trades(aside from the Fiers/Gomez deal of course).

 

You're generally dreaming if you think Perrin/Ponce/Wilkerson/Jungmann are talented enough to start and to help a team contend. Guys with #5 ceilings shouldn't be more than the #7 or 8 starter for this team with what we have in the farm. It serves no purpose and adds no value. It's not like another team is going to backup the prospect truck because Perrin or Wilkerson fooled MLB hitters with 90 mph heat and fringe average offspeed offerings for a month. The reason people like me are hoping to add a SP in free agency or via trade is to add stability to the rotation for 2018. We currently have 3 guys locked into the 2018 rotation, 4 if you count Hader as I do. You don't want to head into 2018 with 3 young SP that might not be able to consistently go deep into games. The bullpen would be shot by the end of April. You need to ease the young guys into the rotation one or two at a time until you see what you have in them.

 

The vast majority of this team over the next handful of years can and should be homegrown. We have the talent to do it. But there will definitely be times to dip into free agency or make trades to bolster the MLB roster and/or cycle aging players out to replenish the farm.

[FVBrewerFan]

No doubt the team should believe the bar is higher. Just like 2017, when they were supposed to be one of the worst teams, they ignored that and exceeded expectations. That's a good thing, you should always expect to win as a player. As a fan though, I would be way more encouraged if Arcia, Phillips, Brinson, Woodruff, Hader, and Burnes had great years but they win 10 less games.

 

If those players all have great years and we win 10 less games, something sure went very wrong elsewhere.

 

Yes, and there's a whole lot of ways that can happen. Nelson doesn't pitch at all. Anderson returns to norm, Knebel could be traded, platoon at 1B may really fall off, Braun could really fall off.

 

A whole laundry list of things could happen, and it wouldn't take very many of them. I mentioned 6 names, still dependent on 19+ more players.

[brewmann04]

did some of these guys have Career years ?

Or did they just start having an impact?

guess we know come the 2018 season but we definite need a starter

[MrTPlush]

No doubt the team should believe the bar is higher. Just like 2017, when they were supposed to be one of the worst teams, they ignored that and exceeded expectations. That's a good thing, you should always expect to win as a player. As a fan though, I would be way more encouraged if Arcia, Phillips, Brinson, Woodruff, Hader, and Burnes had great years but they win 10 less games.

 

If those players all have great years and we win 10 less games, something sure went very wrong elsewhere.

 

Very very wrong considering off season additions too. If we win 10 less games nothing will make that better because really bad things would need to happen.