2018 Starting Rotation

[bork]

Realistically how many innings can we expect from Hader if he starts next year, maybe 150-160? He won't hit 100 innings this year and his high was 126 last year. So if he does start, they will have to skip him or give him a few breaks here and there.

[KeithStone53151]

Realistically how many innings can we expect from Hader if he starts next year, maybe 150-160? He won't hit 100 innings this year and his high was 126 last year. So if he does start, they will have to skip him or give him a few breaks here and there.

 

I would bet they let him get closer to 170 next year, possibly a bit more depending on the circumstances. You're right though, they'll have to utilize days off to skip him here and there. Fortunately all of Anderson, Davies, and Woodruff won't really have an innings limit of any kind next year. There are many ways to limit innings to keep a guy's innings down, if he does start I'm sure they'd have no trouble managing his innings to keep him in the rotation most if not all of the season.

[mrn1ceguy]

Realistically how many innings can we expect from Hader if he starts next year, maybe 150-160? He won't hit 100 innings this year and his high was 126 last year. So if he does start, they will have to skip him or give him a few breaks here and there.

 

I would say 150-160 is about right. If we are in it and have the depth, I would have him start until the all-star break (100ish innings) then switch him to the bullpen role he has now and let Nelson/Burnes/Ortiz/whoever is ready step into his role. If we are out of it, have him start until you shut him down in late August (160ish). If we don't have the depth, start him until the end of july (120), trade for a starter and then bullpen him with lighter use. All in all, it's manageable to get him to 150-160 innings while keeping him useful throughout 2018.

[BrewersAA]

An idea that just hit me watching tonight for the rotation. And I wonder if they would even consider it. Why not try stretching jeffress?

His velocity is so easy and has been really good since dropping a few ticks off, but that didn't happen till he was already in the pen, I would bet he could keep his mid-high 90s deep into games. He just seems sooo good in Milwaukee, why not give it a shot?!?

[FVBrewerFan]

Realistically how many innings can we expect from Hader if he starts next year, maybe 150-160? He won't hit 100 innings this year and his high was 126 last year. So if he does start, they will have to skip him or give him a few breaks here and there.

 

I would say 150-160 is about right. If we are in it and have the depth, I would have him start until the all-star break (100ish innings) then switch him to the bullpen role he has now and let Nelson/Burnes/Ortiz/whoever is ready step into his role. If we are out of it, have him start until you shut him down in late August (160ish). If we don't have the depth, start him until the end of july (120), trade for a starter and then bullpen him with lighter use. All in all, it's manageable to get him to 150-160 innings while keeping him useful throughout 2018.

 

Keep in mind Hader will probably go 5 innings most of the time. Throw him on 10 day once or twice and you can get a full year out of him.

[Never Outhustled]

An idea that just hit me watching tonight for the rotation. And I wonder if they would even consider it. Why not try stretching jeffress?

His velocity is so easy and has been really good since dropping a few ticks off, but that didn't happen till he was already in the pen, I would bet he could keep his mid-high 90s deep into games. He just seems sooo good in Milwaukee, why not give it a shot?!?

 

Agree. The development of his splitter makes him a true 3 pitch pitcher. That makes a move to the rotation realistic.

[Outlander]

Interesting how things come full circle as the debate with Jeffress being a starter or reliever was happening maybe 6-7 years ago. Maybe him a shot in spring training and see what happens.

[BrewersAA]

An idea that just hit me watching tonight for the rotation. And I wonder if they would even consider it. Why not try stretching jeffress?

His velocity is so easy and has been really good since dropping a few ticks off, but that didn't happen till he was already in the pen, I would bet he could keep his mid-high 90s deep into games. He just seems sooo good in Milwaukee, why not give it a shot?!?

 

Agree. The development of his splitter makes him a true 3 pitch pitcher. That makes a move to the rotation realistic.

 

the splitter and curve are good pitches and he will show a change. just seems like a different guy we tried to make a starter in the minors who barley had a curve and threw 85% poorly located 99mph Fbs. at 97 the movement is still wicked. the splitter is a great pitch (though sometime he cant seem to throw if for a strike), and the curve has really developed. just looking it seems like he would be able to maintain 95 velo deep. I dont know, just seems like hes a different guy and could be a difference maker as a starter. and maybe i just dont know what im talking about, either way i would like to see them try it.

[JosephC]

Absolute no to Jeffress as a starter. The Brewers and KC toyed with that for so long and I really felt it negatively impacted his development as a major league pitcher. That whole thing was a complete failure and it doesn't make any sense to revisit it now that his fastball velocity has started to drop.

 

A month ago I was a heavy lean against putting Hader in the rotation largely because I felt comfortable with Nelson/Anderson/Davies/Woodruff leading the rotation and hated the outlook for the bullpen. Just felt with the way the roster was shaping up that Hader would be more valuable as a bullpen piece. But now with Nelson out, I don't think the Brewers can replace him with a potential back-end of the rotation piece. They have to find upside and shoot high to fill that vacancy. Free agent candidates or trade possibilities will cost too much, so Hader seems like the best candidate to do that. I hate moving him out of the bullpen because it leaves a total wreck there but it will probably need to be done out of necessity. My rotation would project to be Anderson/Davies/Woodruff/Hader and the projected fifth piece would be Suter/cheap free agent on one year deal (loser of the #5 spot competition to bullpen in long relief and #6 starter). However, I would not count out Burnes (although I would much rather start him in the minors and limit his early season innings), Guerra (after his poor performance this year I will assume that he'd be back with the Brewers in spring training next year) and Wilkerson. All are given a fair chance to win the fifth spot, but I have to say I wouldn't be that thrilled with the idea of having a bullpen full of players like Suter, Guerra and Wilkerson. So as far as the pen there is Knebel, Jeffress, Barnes (not good at the end of this year but there still is upside there) and whoever loses the 5th starter competition (Suter or cheap free agent). So that's 3 or 4 spots that need to be filled. Would love to have Swarzak back and hope Stearns goes after him pretty aggressively. Could live with or without Hughes. Hate to just pencil Taylor Williams in assume he could get it done but may be forced to do so. Personally this is where I'd spend the money this off-season and in addition to Swarzak would add a couple Feliz-type contracts but hopefully get a couple hits and not a couple of misses like Feliz. But there appears to be significant work that needs to be done here, especially if Hader is viewed as a starter.

[Never Outhustled]

Suter absolutely must stay in the rotation. He might be our 2nd best starter. Keep him stretched out to avoid another shoulder injury.

[clancyphile]

Suter absolutely must stay in the rotation. He might be our 2nd best starter. Keep him stretched out to avoid another shoulder injury.

 

I have to agree.

 

With Nelson out, the crew can do an in-house rotation of Anderson, Davies, Suter, Woodruff, Hader/Burnes in 2018 (the best way to do that switch would be have Hader in until the break, then call up Burnes).

[3and2Fastball]

I'd really like to see the Brewers pay big money for Alex Cobb. In order to take the next step we need significant upgrades, and while I believe the in house options have potential I would feel much better bringing in a free agent who can really help, especially with Nelson out for awhile.

 

Perhaps another trade like the Segura-Chase Anderson trade? Something needs to be done, I'm certain Stearns realizes it more than me and moves will be made

[pacopete4]

I'd really like to see the Brewers pay big money for Alex Cobb.e

 

Cobb is a nice pitcher but since missing a full season his strikeouts dropped from in the 8's per 9 to in the 6's per 9. We would be signing him at age 30 (he's never hit 200 innings in his career) and moving forward. That'd not terribly old but it is heading to the wrong end of it. I just would hate for us to go out at sign some 30+-year-old guy and we trek down the same path we have been on when trying to fill out our rotations. It really handcuffs a lot of the moves you can make. Not completely dismissing Cobb but just something to think about when we bring up guys like him.

[Lathund]

Davies

Anderson

Woodruff

Suter

???

 

To me that seems like a given to start the year, until (Or if...) Jimmy is back. Remains to be seen whether Suters' 3rd time through the rotation stats are significant or not. The sample is small enough for it to potentially just be noise. Or it could be real but a case of lacking experience and could be fixed. Or it's real, and we'd need to do sort of a soft piggyback strategy on his starts. Either way, he should be on the opening day roster. At the very least as a 6th starter/swingman.

 

Obviously it's the 5th spot that needs to be filled. There's always external options. But the idea of a huge multi-year deal to a FA doesn't appeal to me unless it's truly an ace, and even then I'm weary of allocating that much salary space to a volatile position. Trading for a pitcher still under team control, i.e the Sonny Grays of this world, is a bit more appealing, in that it'll be ~3 years of affordable salary. And a small chance of extending that. But even so, it's a seller's market. Even with the volatility that prospects bring, you're giving up 18-24 years worth of potential production for 3 years. That makes sense in certain situations (i.e for the Cubs the Quintana deal made perfect sense) but it doesn't for us right now IMO. We need to get a better idea of what we actually have among our prospects. Once we have a better idea of that, that's the time to make the big moves to improve the areas most in need of improvement.

 

So that leaves the more low-key deals. Short-term free agent deals to veterans is one way, hope for a bounceback season. Sometimes you get lucky, and if you don't then at least it won't impact the club long term or block a prospect. With the salary room we have, taking on salary (Even a lot of it) for a year or two is another way to acquire players without giving up top prospects. That can be either acquiring the pitchers salary, or by taking on another players contract as part of trading for a pitcher.

 

But all that being said, I myself would prefer to mainly evauluate our internal options. Perhaps with the addition of a cheap veteran signing for depth/insurance. And use ST to determine who is most suited. Guerra has looked sharp in recent relief appearances, seeing as how he's both cheap and not likely to return much in a trade, why give up on him quite yet? Hader remains to be seen what his role will be. Can start him in the rotation and evaluate; if it doesn't work we already know he can transition to the pen well. Wilkerson looked shaky, but it's just been one start. Burnes and Ortiz might be too soon straight from the start of the season, but who knows? Derby? (Freddy) Peralta? Or perhaps the veteran insurance we sign turns out to be the best option to start the season.

 

As we find out more about what we have, and as we know more about who is likely to reach the majors as starters over the next few years, it's also a time to think about our current starters. I'd personally be looking to try to extend Davies if at all possible. He'll be a free agent at 28. If we can sign something like Quintana and Sale did I'd be delighted. Those early extensions (Eaton too for that matter) has helped the White Sox rebuild tremendously. The Indians are also benefitting from early extensions. Also decide on Anderson and Nelson, is either one someone to try to retain? If so, act early through either an extension or a trade.

[FVBrewerFan]

They can go with Hader from the start, or use Guerra/Wilkerson/Jungmann until Super 2 is past for Burnes. Don't know for sure, but he seems like he's ready. I doubt Peralta/Ortiz are quite ready yet, but who knows. They can also go out and get a couple more Wilkerson types, either FA, minor league contract, trade, etc. for insurance.

[3and2Fastball]

Anderson

Davies

Woodruff

Suter

 

Means we are looking for a #2 starter, not a #5! And that is presuming that Anderson isn't just a flash in the pan for 1.5 years....

[KeithStone53151]

I'd really like to see the Brewers pay big money for Alex Cobb. In order to take the next step we need significant upgrades, and while I believe the in house options have potential I would feel much better bringing in a free agent who can really help, especially with Nelson out for awhile.

 

Perhaps another trade like the Segura-Chase Anderson trade? Something needs to be done, I'm certain Stearns realizes it more than me and moves will be made

 

We have young talent on the roster that should be reasonably expected to improve. Stearns absolutely does not have to make any bold decisions or anything. We have so much talent and so many assets available with a ton of payroll flexibility, Stearns pretty much will have no restrictions heading into the offseason.

 

I think we will have Anderson/Davies/Woodruff/Hader all fairly locked into starting roles with a competition for the 5th slot. Obviously you don't want to go to spring training with only 5-6 guys in case of injuries or poor performance, so I could see some veterans brought in on minor league deals to compete. A big splash signing is possible, but would also leave us no flexibility when Nelson comes back from injury and/or when Burnes is ready. I don't think they make a big ticket free agent pitcher signing unless they aren't expecting Nelson back until after the all star break or worse.

[Devinep]

Get 1 FA this offseason largely due to Nelsons injury and a small inning limit in shader likely. Let the market dictate if that's a bigger investment (Lance Lynn) mid-level investment (Chatwood) or 1 year rental (CC Sabathia).

 

Beginning 2018: Anderson, FA addition, Davies, woodruff, hader( to bullpen mid season)

 

Depth/mid season additions: suter, Burnes, Ortiz, Nelson, maybe Guerra, Wilkerson, Lopez

 

This would give good depth, delay control seasons for younger guys, and allow Hader to go to the bullpen for innings limit while being important as a reliever

[FVBrewerFan]

You need to go into 2018 with the mindset Nelson will not pitch. If he can, gravy. I also don't know why Hader needs to go back the pen after half a year. 30 starts at 5 innings puts him at 150, that works.

[Devinep]

You need to go into 2018 with the mindset Nelson will not pitch. If he can, gravy. I also don't know why Hader needs to go back the pen after half a year. 30 starts at 5 innings puts him at 150, that works.

 

There is a good possibility that Hader-unless he improves his secondary pitches- ends up in the pen for effectiveness reasons. But 5 innings a astray isn't good for the bullpen long term.

[KeithStone53151]

You need to go into 2018 with the mindset Nelson will not pitch. If he can, gravy. I also don't know why Hader needs to go back the pen after half a year. 30 starts at 5 innings puts him at 150, that works.

 

There is a good possibility that Hader-unless he improves his secondary pitches- ends up in the pen for effectiveness reasons. But 5 innings a astray isn't good for the bullpen long term.

 

Anyone questioning Hader's secondary stuff must not have actually seen him throw it. He gets swings and misses with both pitches often, especially his slider. I'll be fairly upset if he doesn't end up in the rotation to start 2018 unless Stearns goes rogue and adds 2 high end SP in the off season.

[Devinep]

You need to go into 2018 with the mindset Nelson will not pitch. If he can, gravy. I also don't know why Hader needs to go back the pen after half a year. 30 starts at 5 innings puts him at 150, that works.

 

There is a good possibility that Hader-unless he improves his secondary pitches- ends up in the pen for effectiveness reasons. But 5 innings a astray isn't good for the bullpen long term.

 

Anyone questioning Hader's secondary stuff must not have actually seen him throw it. He gets swings and misses with both pitches often, especially his slider. I'll be fairly upset if he doesn't end up in the rotation to start 2018 unless Stearns goes rogue and adds 2 high end SP in the off season.

 

Anyone NOT questioning headers secondary stuff must not have actually seen him throw it- which is easy to miss since he threw his fastball over 80% of the time. His fangraphs pitch value:

-FB-9.9

-SL-3.3

-CH-(-1.4)

 

He was a 1 pitch pitcher this year. Not saying he can't start (since I had him starting in the rotation in 2018) but I would be surprise if he ends up in the bullpen

[KeithStone53151]

There is a good possibility that Hader-unless he improves his secondary pitches- ends up in the pen for effectiveness reasons. But 5 innings a astray isn't good for the bullpen long term.

 

Anyone questioning Hader's secondary stuff must not have actually seen him throw it. He gets swings and misses with both pitches often, especially his slider. I'll be fairly upset if he doesn't end up in the rotation to start 2018 unless Stearns goes rogue and adds 2 high end SP in the off season.

 

Anyone NOT questioning headers secondary stuff must not have actually seen him throw it- which is easy to miss since he threw his fastball over 80% of the time. His fangraphs pitch value:

-FB-9.9

-SL-3.3

-CH-(-1.4)

 

He was a 1 pitch pitcher this year. Not saying he can't start (since I had him starting in the rotation in 2018) but I would be surprise if he ends up in the bullpen

 

Have YOU actually watched the guy pitched and watched him throw secondary stuff, or are you doing a classic "grab one advanced metric from fangraphs which tells a small sliver of the story and ignore everything else"? I'm going to lead off with the fact that he's actually been throwing his offspeed more lately than when he initially came up. I checked his changeup rate back in mid-august and posted it in a different thread, he had thrown it to that point 5% of the time. Now fangraphs has that rate up to 6.4%, which suggests since then he's thrown it 7-8% of the time minimum...probably more. I unfortunately did not see if or how much his slider rate changed but currently it's at 11.5%. Hader throws his fastball most often, especially early on, because nobody can hit it. Why fix what isn't broken? The fastball is a double plus pitch because of the delivery and deception going along with the 95-97 mph heat.

 

He largely sticks with the fastball obviously(as many relievers do), but his secondary stuff is very good and both pitches get swings and misses. If you watch him pitch, you'll see how effective it is. The changeup I'm sure he wants to become more consistent, but it's good enough as is to be an effective starter when coupled with his other 2 pitches. If he doesn't make it as a starter, I think it would have more to do with stamina issues than anything. I watch him pitch and hit his spots, he doesn't seem like a guy that has issues with commanding his pitches...at least not lately.

[Devinep]

yeah I've never seen him pitch. I'll give that guy with the long Gross hair (Hager or something?) a look next time

[Outlander]

Kind of surprising but there is no club option for Matt Garza in 2018 according to Adam McCalvy so I guess we don't have to worry about it anymore.