2018 Starting Rotation

[pacopete4]

All the guys who didn't pitch in AAA playoffs haven't pitched in nearly 2 weeks and likely have basically shut it down by this point. They aren't likely to be taking days to throw as they would normally between starts.

 

Can we get a source that you have for this information? How do you know what those guys are doing?

 

Guys shut it down when their season ends. Unless they were told to be ready, that's what they're doing. Not sure why the Brewers would have prime prospects throwing at this point. If their intention all along were to bring them up (which I doubt), why not just do it?

 

Couldn't it be possible that they told a group of guys to continue working with people in the Brewers organization in case the team needs them? Why would that be so hard to believe?

[FVBrewerFan]

All the guys who didn't pitch in AAA playoffs haven't pitched in nearly 2 weeks and likely have basically shut it down by this point. They aren't likely to be taking days to throw as they would normally between starts.

 

Can we get a source that you have for this information? How do you know what those guys are doing?

 

Good point, and besides the topic is 2018 rotation. There is already another thread devoted to the rotation for the remainder of this year.

[Lathund]

Writeup on Frangraps about Zach Davies today:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/zach-davies-major-league-outlier/

[reillymcshane]

I had initially thought that Suter would be a leading candidate for a starting role in 2018, but the Brewers use of Suter recently has me wondering why. So I simply pulled up the numbers (in this case OPS) based on pitch count:

 

Hitters OPS vs Suter in 2017:

 

Pitches 1-15 - .494 OPS

Pitches 16-30 - .624 OPS

Pitches 31-45 - .903 OPS

Pitches 46-60 - 1.231 OPS

 

I guess I've noticed that teams seem to get to Suter after the first time through, but I didn't realize how dramatic it had become. The guy had a great July, but since then, he's been pretty mediocre when asked to start and go long. I wonder if this is how the team views him - as a reliever. His ability to go 2-3 innings is the most the club wants him out there - and with all the relievers in the pen, we can employ this strategy during September.

 

Not really sure. Just speculating. Still not a big sample size - but the use by the Brewers makes me wonder if that's how they view the guy.

[BuckyBrewer61]

If we are signing a guy like Cobb (will be 30), then we better be parting ways with Chase Anderson then. I don't want a rotation of 30+ year olds blocking our young arms from coming up and flourishing. It just doesn't need to happen to compete.

 

I'm just going to throw it out there, and I'd guess it won't be a popular opinion...but I am not opposed to trading Chase Anderson this offseason. Especially (maybe only) if we somehow acquire good MLB starting pitching in return or in another trade.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like the guy and would be more than content having him in the rotation next year. But I'm just not sure I believe that he's as good as he's been this year. He gives up a lot of flyballs and his xFIP is the highest of his career this year, explained by the fact his HR/FB rate is by far the lowest in his 4 MLB seasons to date. Maybe he is missing bats better, but I'd expect there's some luck involved in that as well, especially when Miller Park is your home. For comparisons sake, Junior Guerra had a very similar ERA, FIP, and xFIP in 2016 as Chase has this year with an almost identical HR/FB rate.

 

If Stearns can work magic to somehow capitalize on Anderson's big year and sell high while still restocking the MLB rotation for next year, count me in.

[Lathund]

I'm not opposed to trading Anderson either if the right opportunity presents itself. 2017 Anderson could be the real deal, or he could not. The 3.70 FIP and 4.60 xFIP (With the 8.2% FB/HR rate as pointed out by the previous poster) and .263 BABIP would suggest that his ERA going forward will be higher than it currently is, if he keeps pitching the same way. For comparison, Jimmy Nelson with his .340 BABIP and 3.15 xFIP would likely have a lower ERA going foward.

 

So perhaps there's a time to sell high indeed. Anderson will be 32 when he becomes a free agent, and might not be a candidate for extending. Even more, Jimmy Nelson becomes a FA at the same time, and Davies the year after. And this will all be in the middle of our competitive window. Replacing his spot in the rotation with someone under contract longer could be a good idea.

 

All that being said, it's not something I feel all that strongly about. I like Chase, and I'd be happy to see him stick around for a few more years. Especially if we can't get the deal we want for him. If the return reflects that of a #4/#5 (Which is what I think he is long term) then we might as well keep him. If someone is willing to pay the going rate for a #2/#3, that'd be a different story.

[clancyphile]

I had initially thought that Suter would be a leading candidate for a starting role in 2018, but the Brewers use of Suter recently has me wondering why. So I simply pulled up the numbers (in this case OPS) based on pitch count:

 

Hitters OPS vs Suter in 2017:

 

Pitches 1-15 - .494 OPS

Pitches 16-30 - .624 OPS

Pitches 31-45 - .903 OPS

Pitches 46-60 - 1.231 OPS

 

I guess I've noticed that teams seem to get to Suter after the first time through, but I didn't realize how dramatic it had become. The guy had a great July, but since then, he's been pretty mediocre when asked to start and go long. I wonder if this is how the team views him - as a reliever. His ability to go 2-3 innings is the most the club wants him out there - and with all the relievers in the pen, we can employ this strategy during September.

 

Not really sure. Just speculating. Still not a big sample size - but the use by the Brewers makes me wonder if that's how they view the guy.

 

That is interesting. The overall sample for Suter in the majors is small. We have more of an idea in the minors, where he had some very good years in 2015/2016.

 

How much of that was the rotator cuff strain in August? Could he do better with more pitches if he is stretched out as a starter instead of being bounced between the pen and the rotation? Even with the very good numbers he posted 2015 and 2016, there was that bouncing between the rotation and bullpen. In 2017, he bounced between the rotation and the bullpen AND between AAA and the majors. Did that have an effect?

 

That said, if the Crew wants a lefty in the rotation, Brent Suter is the only option. Meideros was in A+, and still not impressing. the other options are Drake Owenby and Cameron Roegner, and both were at full-season A.

 

My opinion? For 2018, put Nelson on the 60-day DL. Go with a rotation of Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Suter, and Jungmann.

 

I'd take Garza's option and let him pitch in spring training on the chance that some other team will need a starter and MAYBE the Brewers can get a lottery ticket or two for Garza in that eventuality. Otherwise, cut Garza loose as one of the last cuts in spring training.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I had initially thought that Suter would be a leading candidate for a starting role in 2018, but the Brewers use of Suter recently has me wondering why. So I simply pulled up the numbers (in this case OPS) based on pitch count:

 

Hitters OPS vs Suter in 2017:

 

Pitches 1-15 - .494 OPS

Pitches 16-30 - .624 OPS

Pitches 31-45 - .903 OPS

Pitches 46-60 - 1.231 OPS

 

I guess I've noticed that teams seem to get to Suter after the first time through, but I didn't realize how dramatic it had become. The guy had a great July, but since then, he's been pretty mediocre when asked to start and go long. I wonder if this is how the team views him - as a reliever. His ability to go 2-3 innings is the most the club wants him out there - and with all the relievers in the pen, we can employ this strategy during September.

 

Not really sure. Just speculating. Still not a big sample size - but the use by the Brewers makes me wonder if that's how they view the guy.

 

That is interesting. The overall sample for Suter in the majors is small. We have more of an idea in the minors, where he had some very good years in 2015/2016.

 

How much of that was the rotator cuff strain in August? Could he do better with more pitches if he is stretched out as a starter instead of being bounced between the pen and the rotation? Even with the very good numbers he posted 2015 and 2016, there was that bouncing between the rotation and bullpen. In 2017, he bounced between the rotation and the bullpen AND between AAA and the majors. Did that have an effect?

 

That said, if the Crew wants a lefty in the rotation, Brent Suter is the only option. Meideros was in A+, and still not impressing. the other options are Drake Owenby and Cameron Roegner, and both were at full-season A.

 

My opinion? For 2018, put Nelson on the 60-day DL. Go with a rotation of Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Suter, and Jungmann.

 

I'd take Garza's option and let him pitch in spring training on the chance that some other team will need a starter and MAYBE the Brewers can get a lottery ticket or two for Garza in that eventuality. Otherwise, cut Garza loose as one of the last cuts in spring training.

 

Josh Hader is giving you a hair flip while saying "Hi".

 

Also, is there really a chance that Nelson isn't going to be ready for the 2018 opener? I sure hope that isn't the case. I haven't really seen much on his expected recovery time.

 

As for Suter, I know you love him, but his ceiling is at most as a #5/swing guy. The role he is in right now is likely where he'll be next year. That is still very valuable. He has proven this season to be dependable, and I'm sure his willingness to take the ball whenever asked, and in any situation, is much appreciated by Counsell and Stearns.

 

Finally, I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that the team uses some of the minor league depth they've built up to make a trade for a controllable starter in the offseason. Someone like Matt Moore or even Bumgarner or Stroman may be possibilities.

[bill hAll Star]

Finally, I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that the team uses some of the minor league depth they've built up to make a trade for a controllable starter in the offseason. Someone like Matt Moore or even Bumgarner or Stroman may be possibilities.

 

Bumgarner - No way would that happen

 

Moore - Ever since he's stopped throwing his slider, he's no better than Matt Garza in his current state. We're going on 3 years now of Moore not being a good pitcher. #5 starter at best when you take him out of his pitcher-friendly ballpark. No thanks.

 

Stroman - Won't be worth his price, IMO.

[pacopete4]

I can understand why some want to trade/sign for a pitcher with a name. It feels good. It feels safe. It makes you more comfortable going into the next season. But at the same time, by doing so it is one less opportunity for a young arm that we have that possibly could be as good or better and a heck of a lot cheaper. We are just starting to see the first wave of homegrown arms come through. It could be the first time in the Brewers franchise that we have this opportunity. I would hate to see us ruin that by trades/free agent signings.

[hurricanecrush]

Also, is there really a chance that Nelson isn't going to be ready for the 2018 opener? I sure hope that isn't the case. I haven't really seen much on his expected recovery time.

Labrum tears are usually a year, similar to an ACL, I posted a link the other day. I'm going to assume that until they report something more optimistic... and then I probably won't believe them anyway. Very few pitchers come back from Labrum tears and are what they were before the injury.

[Madhawk23]

Also, is there really a chance that Nelson isn't going to be ready for the 2018 opener? I sure hope that isn't the case. I haven't really seen much on his expected recovery time.

Labrum tears are usually a year, similar to an ACL, I posted a link the other day. I'm going to assume that until they report something more optimistic... and then I probably won't believe them anyway. Very few pitchers come back from Labrum tears and are what they were before the injury.

 

Does it matter at all that it was a partial tear and not a full tear of the labrum? I realize that none of us are probably doctors, but I guess I'm hoping that the fact that it is a partial tear makes his odds much better at coming back to full strength - and early enough to contribute next year.

 

Man, does anything scream "Brewers" more than losing our best pitcher due to a dive back into first base. Terrible.

 

If the worst case scenario plays out here and he never returns to the pitcher that he became this year, then that is a really big setback for this franchise in my opinion. Jimmy was on his way to becoming a real solid TOR type guy with the way he's pitched this year, and at the very least he would have provided us with a big trade haul in the next year or two - or better yet, maybe a deep playoff push. Boy, I hope we get good news on his shoulder and he'll be able to return next year like the guy we've seen here in 2017.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I can understand why some want to trade/sign for a pitcher with a name. It feels good. It feels safe. It makes you more comfortable going into the next season. But at the same time, by doing so it is one less opportunity for a young arm that we have that possibly could be as good or better and a heck of a lot cheaper. We are just starting to see the first wave of homegrown arms come through. It could be the first time in the Brewers franchise that we have this opportunity. I would hate to see us ruin that by trades/free agent signings.

 

You are right, and perhaps this team does have the starting pitching depth to go 7-8 deep in solid arms for next season. Perhaps I'm jaded, though, by the historical reputation this team has for not being able to grow solid pitching for a sustainable period. I know if Melvin were still the GM, he'd likely be looking to make an offseason rotation splash. Stearns doesn't have much of a track record to look at, though. All I'm saying is that if they chose to go the trade route to fill out the rotation, the minor league depth is there to absorb it without emptying the cupboard.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Finally, I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that the team uses some of the minor league depth they've built up to make a trade for a controllable starter in the offseason. Someone like Matt Moore or even Bumgarner or Stroman may be possibilities.

 

Bumgarner - No way would that happen

 

Moore - Ever since he's stopped throwing his slider, he's no better than Matt Garza in his current state. We're going on 3 years now of Moore not being a good pitcher. #5 starter at best when you take him out of his pitcher-friendly ballpark. No thanks.

 

Stroman - Won't be worth his price, IMO.

 

I was only making an attempt to look at the solid rotational pieces currently owned by bad or rebuilding ball clubs. Aaron Nola from the Phillies or Urena from the Marlins would be great upper rotation trade candidates as well. Also Cobb or Archer from Tampa Bay, or Jason Vargas from KC would be fits. Nola would be a great "get", but would cost a lot, if he is even available. But he is young and controllable for several seasons, and would provide the #1-2 upside that would put the team in pennant contention.

[bill hAll Star]

Finally, I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that the team uses some of the minor league depth they've built up to make a trade for a controllable starter in the offseason. Someone like Matt Moore or even Bumgarner or Stroman may be possibilities.

 

Bumgarner - No way would that happen

 

Moore - Ever since he's stopped throwing his slider, he's no better than Matt Garza in his current state. We're going on 3 years now of Moore not being a good pitcher. #5 starter at best when you take him out of his pitcher-friendly ballpark. No thanks.

 

Stroman - Won't be worth his price, IMO.

 

I was only making an attempt to look at the solid rotational pieces currently owned by bad or rebuilding ball clubs. Aaron Nola from the Phillies or Urena from the Marlins would be great upper rotation trade candidates as well. Also Cobb or Archer from Tampa Bay, or Jason Vargas from KC would be fits. Nola would be a great "get", but would cost a lot, if he is even available. But he is young and controllable for several seasons, and would provide the #1-2 upside that would put the team in pennant contention.

 

I get what you're saying that you're just kinda hand-waving and saying, "we will trade for a good controllable pitcher" but I'll continue to nitpick the examples like a jerk.

 

The Phillies probably won't trade their upper rotation guys like Nola as they're just getting out of their rebuild, they hope.

 

Cobb is a free agent. We can sign him but it may take 5 years of commitment.

 

Vargas is again Matt Garza in a cloak of first half 2017 luck.

 

Urena, maybe. They may be hesitant to trade a guy that just is starting to "figure it out" with the tools he has.

 

Archer will be expensive.

 

I think this all points to the fact that there won't be a ton of obvious candidates to go out and acquire.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't like the idea of spending big money or top prospects on a SP until we know what our biggest needs even are. What if Hader and Burnes get the opportunity in 2018 and look like keepers for the rotation long term, and Peralta continues his march towards the rotation?

 

Now you've already gone out and bought a SP under contract for years. Instead, maybe they sign or trade for a bat or two after next season.

 

Point being, we still don't know what we have here. Rebuilding has just begun, and IMHO the time to spend big money and/or top prospects are when you have a much better idea that what's being added is needed the most.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't like the idea of spending big money or top prospects on a SP until we know what our biggest needs even are. What if Hader and Burnes get the opportunity in 2018 and look like keepers for the rotation long term, and Peralta continues his march towards the rotation?

 

Now you've already gone out and bought a SP under contract for years. Instead, maybe they sign or trade for a bat or two after next season.

 

Point being, we still don't know what we have here. Rebuilding has just begun, and IMHO the time to spend big money and/or top prospects are when you have a much better idea that what's being added is needed the most.

 

Unfortunately, unless a bunch of our young players are flops, the time to spend big money is the next 2-3 years. There won't be money available for larger-contract external free agents starting in about 2020.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't like the idea of spending big money or top prospects on a SP until we know what our biggest needs even are. What if Hader and Burnes get the opportunity in 2018 and look like keepers for the rotation long term, and Peralta continues his march towards the rotation?

 

Now you've already gone out and bought a SP under contract for years. Instead, maybe they sign or trade for a bat or two after next season.

 

Point being, we still don't know what we have here. Rebuilding has just begun, and IMHO the time to spend big money and/or top prospects are when you have a much better idea that what's being added is needed the most.

 

Unfortunately, unless a bunch of our young players are flops, the time to spend big money is the next 2-3 years. There won't be money available for larger-contract external free agents starting in about 2020.

 

Curious why you say that? $20mm more freed up then with Brauns contract dropping off.

[clancyphile]

That is interesting. The overall sample for Suter in the majors is small. We have more of an idea in the minors, where he had some very good years in 2015/2016.

 

How much of that was the rotator cuff strain in August? Could he do better with more pitches if he is stretched out as a starter instead of being bounced between the pen and the rotation? Even with the very good numbers he posted 2015 and 2016, there was that bouncing between the rotation and bullpen. In 2017, he bounced between the rotation and the bullpen AND between AAA and the majors. Did that have an effect?

 

That said, if the Crew wants a lefty in the rotation, Brent Suter is the only option. Meideros was in A+, and still not impressing. the other options are Drake Owenby and Cameron Roegner, and both were at full-season A.

 

My opinion? For 2018, put Nelson on the 60-day DL. Go with a rotation of Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Suter, and Jungmann.

 

I'd take Garza's option and let him pitch in spring training on the chance that some other team will need a starter and MAYBE the Brewers can get a lottery ticket or two for Garza in that eventuality. Otherwise, cut Garza loose as one of the last cuts in spring training.

 

Josh Hader is giving you a hair flip while saying "Hi".

 

Also, is there really a chance that Nelson isn't going to be ready for the 2018 opener? I sure hope that isn't the case. I haven't really seen much on his expected recovery time.

 

As for Suter, I know you love him, but his ceiling is at most as a #5/swing guy. The role he is in right now is likely where he'll be next year. That is still very valuable. He has proven this season to be dependable, and I'm sure his willingness to take the ball whenever asked, and in any situation, is much appreciated by Counsell and Stearns.

 

Finally, I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that the team uses some of the minor league depth they've built up to make a trade for a controllable starter in the offseason. Someone like Matt Moore or even Bumgarner or Stroman may be possibilities.

 

Hader and Knebel are the backbone of the 2018 bullpen, hopefully Swarzak is re-signed to help there as well. Figure Jeffress comes in as another short-relief option, Wei-Chung Wang as the LOOGY, and someone like Guerra as the swingman.

 

This past June and early July saw Suter make a dominant run. If he's stretched out as a starter, and gets more MLB experience, he could easily be able to be a quality starter, even at the back end. Beats seeing the Crew sign some free agent at $15 million. Suter's cheap for three years.

 

Even if Nelson is out, after Anderson, Davies, and Woodruff, the Crew has Jungmann, Suter, Angel Ventura, and Wilkerson as immediate options in-house. Bubba Derby, Corbin Burnes, and Luis Ortiz will be forcing their way into the mix by the end of 2018 as well.

[pacopete4]

Clancy I know Suter is your guy but he just doesn't have the stuff to make it through the order 2-3 times. He would best be used as a long man 2 times a week coming out of the pen and spot starts if needed.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

1.) Anderson, 2.) Free Agent Signing or Trade, 3.) Zach Davies, 4.) Brandon Woodruff, 5.) The winner of the Guerra, Suter, Wilkerson, Burnes training camp battle.

 

A trade for a Clayton Richard and Ryan Butcher or Brad Hand would sure up the rotation and bull pen. The Brewers have the pieces to do it and it may not cost a ton if some of the #5 options, other than Burnes, are included.

[OnTheBlack]

Chris Sale in 2010 out of the bullpen threw 392 pitches in 23.1 innings. Josh Hader this year has thrown 402 pitches in 22.1 innings. Josh Hader has a .81 ERA versus Sale having a 1.93 ERA in 2010.

 

That means almost literally nothing regarding what he said about his command. It's absolutely a fact that unless Hader makes significant improvements with regard to both his command and control within the zone he won't be a starter. I'll take that a step further and say that he can't maintain this type of walk rate and be a successful reliever in the big leagues.

 

Sale also had a better FIP that year and walked about 3 fewer batters per 9 IP.

 

I can't think of a pitcher who walks nearly 7 guys per 9 IP who's had success at the big league level. You see Hader and you see he can be a really good pitcher. His stuff is exceptional, he's deceptive, etc..etc..etc..and I believe he will be.

 

But you can't use pitches thrown and ERA, ESPECIALLY in such a tiny sample size to make any viable comparison or statement about how he can maintain future success without improving.

 

Again, I think he will so I'm not bashing him. But there is no doubt that a starting pitcher cannot get away with that many walks and having to use that many pitches to get outs. It's just not sustainable.

 

Not saying Josh Hader can't be a great rotation asset, but where are the more "realistic" comparisons?

 

Comps with young players are almost always ridiculous like this. Remember when Nelson was drafted and people used Suppan as a comp and most people were then disgusted with the pick? Suppan had a career WAR of 20.4. Nelson had 4 career WAR entering this year. So that's probably why people are overly ambitious with their comps. Realistic ones aren't nearly as fun! I guess the best optimistic comp would be Andrew Miller though. There just aren't that many lanky lefties with that similar delivery who've had success. I think Hader's career has a better chance to be similar to Miller's than anyone else that comes to mind while still falling short, but I'm still holding out hope he can carve out a stop atop our rotation for the next 4-5 or so years.

 

Oh boy, where to begin. Pitchers tend to pitch differently out of the pen than out of the rotation. Using extra pitches isn't as big a deal as they aren't trying to eat up a ton of innings. Also Hader has a very good track record in multiple minor league seasons, so it's not like I'm basing my opinion on him solely on the 25 MLB innings he's pitched in a different role than he's used to, nor should anyone else. Chris Sale is the dream outcome for Hader, and it isn't unrealistic as they are very similar. The numbers are reasonably close, and more to the point is that Sale clearly wasn't a finished product upon starting in his bullpen role at the MLB level. He developed and improved at this level and is now an absolute star. I don't think anybody is trying to say that Hader is good as is and doesn't need to improve. The crux of the discussion is whether he should enter the MLB rotation to start 2018 or serve another role(AAA starter, AA starter, MLB bullpen). My standpoint is, give him the inside track in ST to open in the 2018 mlb rotation. He'll have command issues and some short outings, but we are in a rebuild and he'll learn and develop much more at this level than any of the alternative options. He'll also likely have some very good outings to offset some bad ones and I would think will have a floor of a #5 SP statistically cumulatively next season.

 

And regarding Nelson, you conveniently leave out that Nelson currently has 4 WAR this season already and is only 28. Suppan never had a season of 3 WAR. And using WAR to prove your point that those 2 pitchers were a good comp for each other is...wow. Have you actually seen both pitchers pitch? The only way they are similar pitchers is that they both throw right handed, and apparently their WAR...or something. But that's apparently a thing...find one advanced metric that sorta/kinda proves your point and your standpoint is the bible. Nelson drastically improved his stuff since being drafted and is a power pitcher, which at that point the comp is gone and baseless since that's not what Suppan ever was.

 

 

How about reading the actual words I used and then replying to them and not other words.

 

First part, the ridiculous comments about Nelson. You do realize that I said when he was drafted, right? The context was that when we try to find comps with younger pitchers or players, we almost always use an unattainable, ridiculous star player...sorta like you're trying to do when you used your Haders 402 pitches .81 ERA vs Sales 392 pitches 1.81 ERA or whatever it was(while ignoring that Hader walked 3 more per 9 than Sale even using your arbitrary number of pitches metric).

 

So my POINT in saying that people were upset when they saw that Suppan, a guy with 20 career WAR(which was behind ONLY Scott Rolen among 2nd rounders that year) was that the bar is set unfairly high.

 

That you think Nelson has "drastically" improved his stuff or is a power pitcher now is totally, 100 pct irrelevant. The point was that comps are almost always unfair and even when you use a comp from a player who was one of the best players in his draft class, people STILL get upset because it's not a superstar. But to answer your absolutely ridiculous and pointless question, yes, I've seen Nelson pitch. He pitches differently than Suppan. Hence...comps for young pitchers/players are useless. And to build on that a bit, not sure it's quite the insult you think it is to be compared to a guy who won 140 games and threw over 2500 innings in the big leagues when you're drafted in the 2nd round.....so again, what he's done now, his WAR this year couldn't be further from the point and has absolutely nothing to do with anything. What's more, IT WASN'T MY COMP. It was a fairly common one that went around here that came to mind that I used as an example.

 

 

Now, with regard to Hader. Yes, I get that sometimes relievers use more pitches in an given inning because they come into higher leverage situations. I also think I've said in every way possible that I think Hader's a REALLY good pitcher, have said that all year, said that in this thread and in every discussion I said he should be given a shot to start. That he should fail as a starter before relinquishing him to the bullpen. But what is undeniable, regardless of what Chris Sale once did in 391 pitches in the pen whenever is, if he cannot and will not have success as a reliever, much less as a starter moving forward if he walks 7 per 9 innings(which he was when you posted your condescendingly obnoxious reply) and he cannot throw as many pitches as he had been if he wants to be a starter who pitches deeper than the 3rd inning. That really shouldn't be debatable. I also never even so much as inferred I didn't think he could improve. So you can stop "selling" me on Hader and really don't do it by citing how he did in X number of pitches vs how another pitcher did in the same number of pitches. It might be a worse way to judge a pitcher than using a relievers W/L record. But I've always said and consistently said that Hader should start....and if he's to be successful at it, his BB rate will decline. He's got good enough stuff to get by with a higher than normal BB rate, but not 7 walks per 9.

 

So where to start? How about with what was actually said and try to take things in the proper context.

[OnTheBlack]

 

Curious why you say that? $20mm more freed up then with Brauns contract dropping off.

 

When he says external money, my guess is he's budgeting for the salaries and potential extensions of our own young players. It's too early for me to start guessing what we'll have to spend in 2020 or 2023, but I have said in other threads given the number of pre arbitration contracts we have, this is a time we could actually go out and spend on a top free agent pitcher if there was one that we liked. Someone like Greinke when he left the Brewers. The problem is when I looked at the future FA pitchers, the only I saw that look like aces are Kuechel who will be 32 IIRC at that point and Kershaw who's not leaving LA.

 

Anyway, I'm gonna hope against hope(and against what I said in my recent posts on the subject) and hope that Nelson's shoulder ends up being a good case scenario(not best, but one in that he's back for the start of next year).

 

Rotation-

1-Nelson

2-Anderson-I'm just ready to admit I was wrong on him. I thought he was nothing more than a journeyman soft tossing pitcher, but if he can keep his velocity in the low to mid 90's and stay healthy all year, he could be a good #2.

3-Davies

4-Woodruff

5-Hader

6-Jungman/FA signing

 

This is the rotation I'd like to see them start the year with. I have Hader in there 5th just so he can get an extra day off every now and then. In a perfect world they'd skip Hader and Woodruff once a month being young pitchers.

 

Then after keeping Burnes in CS and throwing ~75-80 pitches a start until about June

-Nelson

-Anderson

-Davies

-Woodruff

-Hader

-Burnes-Bring him up as the first guy in if someone is injured, OR bring him up in June to pitch out of the pen like Hader did this year and when used, make sure he's given 3 days of rest before sliding him into the rotation down the stretch.

 

 

I'd like to see a Free Agent, but I'm not convinced the can replicate this success next year, especially with questions about Nelson. So I wouldn't want to spend on a guy like Arietta who wants a ridiculously long term deal from what I've heard him say(I thought I read earlier this year he wanted 8 years..that'd likely be 4 years of a significantly decreased value). Darvish would likely get ~5/150 plus an option for ~30 million. Cashner is gonna cash in on a healthy 5 war season.

 

I think I would look at maybe Tyler Chatwood as a possible FA target.

 

Get him out of Col and his numbers are significantly better. His OPS is about 150 points better away from Coors.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

It seems like the 2018 rotation will be a lot about options. Is Nelson healthy? Does the team want to give up the value Hader would provide out of the BP in hopes he turns into a more valuable starting piece? How soon do the younger guys get a shot?

 

I think I'd honestly keep Hader in the bullpen. I just see him being more effective in 70-80 innings of high-leverage outs than twice that many in a starting role. Of course, I'm glad I don't have to make that choice. Where to put him seems like the toughest decision Stearns has faced so far, and it's not like he'll have a chance to improve his secondary pitches if he's not using them. If they decide to let him play in the rotation, there'll be a rationale for it.

 

That leaves Davies, Anderson, and Woodruff as guys who should feel safe coming into Spring. Then there's the health of Nelson and whole bunch of Suter/Burnes/Garza types, guys who are either young and borderline ready or somewhat proven but with fringy stuff. Just from a watching perspective, I'd rather give Suter a shot at the #5 spot in April and May and see what happens. He's just more fun to watch than Garza, and if he struggles, fine. We can skip the #5 spot if necessary, especially given the extra off days in the schedule next year, and see if any of the young pieces warrant a call-up/Jimmy is healthier after additional rehab time. Basically, I'm anxiously awaiting a timetable on Nelson. With him, I feel like the rotation is in pretty darn good shape heading into next year. Without him, a trade may need to happen, or bets may need to be placed on prospects who may not be quite ready. Hope we get good news today or at least this week.

[KeithStone53151]

Beat writers quoted Stearns as saying Nelson will miss "a chunk" of 2018. Hard to say how much that is, my guess is close to half the season. This likely locks Hader into a rotation spot, and a decent chance we make a free agent signing as well.