2018 Starting Rotation

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Jimmy Nelson

Chase Anderson

Alex Cobb (3 years, 36 million)

Zach Davies

Brandon Woodruff

 

Burnes and Ortiz start in AAA; Burnes is the first man up. Hader gets the 8th, depending on the situation, with Knebel closing.

[Crash2303]

outside of a game-changing TOR, i don't think there's any need this offseason to sign big free agents. i like our depth, both starters and pen-

let's see what our guys can do. first off- assuming not back: Garza, Swarzak,W.Peralta,Cravy,Blazek.

 

"guaranteed" starters

Nelson

Anderson

Davies

 

three guys compete for remaining two spots. whoever doesn't make it is sent to bullpen- and should be great out of the pen.

Woodruff

Guerra

Hader

 

"guaranteed" bullpen spots

Knebel

Barnes

Suter (swingman)

one of the guys listed above

 

depending on whether we carry 12 or 13 pitchers, there are 3-4 spots available. let's say we carry 13- the following guys would be competing for the final four spots. in order of who i think has the best chance:

Jeffress

T-Will

Jungmann

Wang

Hughes (i would look to trade this offseason)

Webb

Barrios

Nolin

Wilkerson

Lopez

Archer/Ventura/Derby

Burnes/F.Peralta/Ortiz (hope they start the year in the minors- no need to rush)

Drake (trade or release)

Torres (trade or release)

N.Ramirez

[clancyphile]

My first thought is that I don't want to see the Brewers sign a free agent, and I want to see Garz dealt (maybe as part of a package with Keon Broxton).

 

For the rotation, that gives the Brewers: Nelson, Davies, Anderson, Suter, Woodruff, Jungmann, Guerra, Hader, and Angel Ventura

 

I'm sure I'm missing a name or two. But there should be NO problem after the top three of Nelson-Anderson-Davies of coming up with a #4 and #5 starter, and Suter an Woodruff have flashed dominance this season.

 

If there is some spending on a free agent, it's to keep Walker here for 2-3 years until Keston Hiura is ready to come up, NOT for a Garza/Lohse/Wolf/Suppan type of pitcher.

[JohnBriggs12]

What's so difficult about this? Barring injury, Nelson, Davies, Anderson and Woodruff are locks. The 5th spot will go to either Hader or Guerra. If the Brewers fall back and don't contend, then they'll put Nelson or Anderson on the market at the deadline. If they do contend, they'll use their pitching depth in the system to acquire difference making talent to bolster the lineup or add a pitcher.

[adambr2]

Yeah, I mostly agree with Briggs. There's really only one spot up for grabs next year. Maybe they sign a FA, maybe they give Guerra another shot, maybe Hader gets tried out as a starter, but if so you'll have to watch his innings.

 

If we're going to talk about Corbin Burnes and Luis Ortiz as second half starter possibilities next year, shouldn't we also talk about Freddy Peralta?

[pacopete4]

Yeah, I mostly agree with Briggs. There's really only one spot up for grabs next year. Maybe they sign a FA, maybe they give Guerra another shot, maybe Hader gets tried out as a starter, but if so you'll have to watch his innings.

 

If we're going to talk about Corbin Burnes and Luis Ortiz as second half starter possibilities next year, shouldn't we also talk about Freddy Peralta?

 

Bubba Derby?

[adambr2]

Yeah, I mostly agree with Briggs. There's really only one spot up for grabs next year. Maybe they sign a FA, maybe they give Guerra another shot, maybe Hader gets tried out as a starter, but if so you'll have to watch his innings.

 

If we're going to talk about Corbin Burnes and Luis Ortiz as second half starter possibilities next year, shouldn't we also talk about Freddy Peralta?

 

Bubba Derby?

 

Maybe. I was thinking more of the high upside guys. Not really sure that Derby has the stuff to be more than a back end or swingman starter. Peralta's strikeout numbers for Biloxi are eye-popping.

 

It goes to show though how much our system has turned into a pitching-strong farm. Guys like Derby and Wilkerson, who have starter upside, and Taylor Williams who has Corey Knebel type upside, aren't even in our top 30.

[pacopete4]

Yeah, I mostly agree with Briggs. There's really only one spot up for grabs next year. Maybe they sign a FA, maybe they give Guerra another shot, maybe Hader gets tried out as a starter, but if so you'll have to watch his innings.

 

If we're going to talk about Corbin Burnes and Luis Ortiz as second half starter possibilities next year, shouldn't we also talk about Freddy Peralta?

 

Bubba Derby?

 

Maybe. I was thinking more of the high upside guys. Not really sure that Derby has the stuff to be more than a back end or swingman starter. Peralta's strikeout numbers for Biloxi are eye-popping.

 

It goes to show though how much our system has turned into a pitching-strong farm. Guys like Derby and Wilkerson, who have starter upside, and Taylor Williams who has Corey Knebel type upside, aren't even in our top 30.

 

Yeah I was trying to add to the possibilities. I think Derby is lower on the totem pole than those others listed but if he goes and pitches well again to start the year in AAA he has to be a part of the discussion.

[MoreTrife]

Man we have a lot of pitching right now. It's great. Need to position prospects to start panning out.

[LouisEly]

There's going to be a lot of competition for the 5th spot - Hader, Guerra, Jungmann, Wilkerson, Hauser.

 

Then at AAA you could have Wilkerson, Hauser, Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta, Derby, Perrin, Ventura (if he's back).

 

At AA you could have Peralta, Perrin, Ponce, Yamamoto, Medeiros, Diplan, Bickford

 

At A+ you could have Bickford, Diplan, Supak, Z. Brown, Webb, Jankins, Owenby.

 

One thing's for sure - the Brewers don't need to be dipping into the free agent starting pitching pool. Plenty of depth, especially at the upper levels.

[Greenleaf1]

If anything, weirdly we could see ourselves in a situation where we're trading minor league pitching depth for position players. Clearly not where we expected to be given the fact that almost every trade conversation we've had over the past year has been who we are going to trade for that TOR starter. At this point, a trade like that doesn't really seem necessary.

 

There will certainly be some competition in spring training next year for those 4th/5th spots in the rotation behind Nelson/Anderson/Davies. You've already got Woodruff/Hader/Garza/Guerra/Suter to choose from, plus a whole host of minor leaguers who are going to be ready to throw their hats in the ring.

 

My guess is that there will be some serious consideration in the offseason over converting some minor league starters to the bullpen. Guys like Bubba Derby, Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser, and Taylor Williams seem bound for the pen, but I don't really see this as a problem for any of them. Brewers have the potential to have the best top to bottom bullpen in baseball next year and probably will be paying their 7/8 man bullpen less total than some teams pay for their closer. All that pitching depth comes in handy when you remember that the team has 12 or 13 pitchers on it, not just 5.

[Greenleaf1]

All that said, if an opportunity opens up where the Brewers could make a trade for a TOR guy (I'm thinking Marcus Stroman or Chris Archer types), I think they'd have to consider it.

 

Hader has plenty of years of control left and has shown a real affinity for his fireman role, I'd have no problem with him starting 2018 in the bullpen, especially if we've got a real ace taking his spot.

[clancyphile]

All that said, if an opportunity opens up where the Brewers could make a trade for a TOR guy (I'm thinking Marcus Stroman or Chris Archer types), I think they'd have to consider it.

 

Hader has plenty of years of control left and has shown a real affinity for his fireman role, I'd have no problem with him starting 2018 in the bullpen, especially if we've got a real ace taking his spot.

 

You have to, but if Nelson and Anderson are for real, then you have as good a 1-2 punch as any team in the league. Davies is not bad, but not quite at their level.

 

Woodruff and Suter are probably the top contenders for the 4-5 spots if the 40-man stays as it is.

 

The depth does provide a lot of options, though...

[reillymcshane]

Corbin Burnes:

 

If he's a fit for the starting rotation next season and the earliest to bring him up is June (super 2?), would it be beneficial for the Brewers to limit his innings to begin the year and start him up lets say May 1st? This could keep his innings down and allow him to be a big piece for the Brewers beginning even next season.

I think you're right -- assuming he keeps pitching well, Burnes will be up in our rotation by mid-June (as you say, avoid Super 2).

 

I'm guessing the rotation is Nelson, Davies, Anderson, Woodruff and Suter to start the year. Suter is a wildcard. He'll need to do okay through September.

 

But someone will falter in the rotation. Might be an injury or just a serious regression - but someone usually has a tough season. So Burnes is the guy they call on. I think the team will like his workhorse, attack-oriented style.

 

If Suter isn't in the rotation to start the year (or if someone is injured), you might see someone like Wilkerson or Jungmann get the nod.

 

Guerra is a wildcard. Just don't know what to expect from him. I guess I am skeptical. If he can rebound, all the better - but as I said, I'm skeptical.

[clancyphile]

I wouldn't be surprised if people came to the Brewers with offers for Davies, Anderson, or Nelson.

 

All are young, and Davies is controllable for a while. The return could be substantial, especially if packaged with Keon Broxton.

[Roderick]

Jimmy Nelson

Chase Anderson

Alex Cobb (3 years, 36 million)

Zach Davies

Brandon Woodruff

 

Burnes and Ortiz start in AAA; Burnes is the first man up. Hader gets the 8th, depending on the situation, with Knebel closing.

 

Agreed above, but have to sign Swarzak (and hopefully Neshak). There isn't much for bullpen guys out there.

 

Being under 30, I assume Cobb will make more than that (I assume elbow injury behind him). I would target to get him or Lance Lynn (to hurt Cardinals) and if we lose out at least we made the winning team pay big.

 

I wonder if CC could be cheapish and a one year deal. Maybe he has the magic left for us, or he falls apart and you install Burnes/Suter. Maybe he would be great out of the pen.

[pacopete4]

If we are signing a guy like Cobb (will be 30), then we better be parting ways with Chase Anderson then. I don't want a rotation of 30+ year olds blocking our young arms from coming up and flourishing. It just doesn't need to happen to compete.

[FVBrewerFan]

If we are signing a guy like Cobb (will be 30), then we better be parting ways with Chase Anderson then. I don't want a rotation of 30+ year olds blocking our young arms from coming up and flourishing. It just doesn't need to happen to compete.

 

Agreed. With Nelson out it looks like this:

 

Anderson

Davies

Woodruff

Hader

Wilkerson/Jungmann

 

Wow, baseball is strange. Even here where we disagree on everything, I doubt a few months back anyone would have predicted Anderson on the top of this list. (Or even 2nd if you want to put Davies at the top.)

 

Still not convinced Hader is a starter, but let's find out. Then Wilkerson and Jungmann can battle it out for the 5th spot. Even Guerra, I'm fine with having him compete for the 5th spot in March.

 

Darkhorse is Burnes. Who knows, maybe they decide to have him in the rotation right out of ST. If not, if he's still pitching well, we will see him sooner rather than later in 2018. Peralta, Ortiz, and others just too many factors to know if/when they join the team next season.

 

Finally, I fully expect Stearns to have a cheap veteran flyer or two in camp and maybe trade lower level prospect(s) for one.

[Roderick]

If we are signing a guy like Cobb (will be 30), then we better be parting ways with Chase Anderson then. I don't want a rotation of 30+ year olds blocking our young arms from coming up and flourishing. It just doesn't need to happen to compete.

 

If the starting rotation is so good and so healthy that even if Burnes and Wilkerson are killing it AAA, they don't get any play, i would take that scenario over being one good starter short of missing the playoffs. You can always trade Anderson/Nelson following the 2018 season. I could see acquiring a great bullpen instead of a starter, but that is even a bigger crapshoot year to year - so I would rather just keep Hader in the pen.

 

I would say put the money that would go to a starter into a position player, but where is there a position where we can really see a more than an incremental upgrade over what we have, considering both cost and performance? 2B? Walker heads the list basically. Trade? Possible, but I don't know if there are any better 2B that are available that way either.

[pacopete4]

If we are signing a guy like Cobb (will be 30), then we better be parting ways with Chase Anderson then. I don't want a rotation of 30+ year olds blocking our young arms from coming up and flourishing. It just doesn't need to happen to compete.

 

If the starting rotation is so good and so healthy that even if Burnes and Wilkerson are killing it AAA, they don't get any play, i would take that scenario over being one good starter short of missing the playoffs. You can always trade Anderson/Nelson following the 2018 season. I could see acquiring a great bullpen instead of a starter, but that is even a bigger crapshoot year to year - so I would rather just keep Hader in the pen.

 

I would say put the money that would go to a starter into a position player, but where is there a position where we can really see a more than an incremental upgrade over what we have, considering both cost and performance? 2B? Walker heads the list basically. Trade? Possible, but I don't know if there are any better 2B that are available that way either.

 

We've done the 30+ year old rotations before. It hasn't worked. I want to try these young arms and let a guy like Burnes come up and bulldoze his competition like he has all the way through. Jamming them up at AAA just doesn't do it for me. Let these guys pitch. It's what we have been waiting for, for so long with this organization.

[Roderick]

If we are signing a guy like Cobb (will be 30), then we better be parting ways with Chase Anderson then. I don't want a rotation of 30+ year olds blocking our young arms from coming up and flourishing. It just doesn't need to happen to compete.

 

If the starting rotation is so good and so healthy that even if Burnes and Wilkerson are killing it AAA, they don't get any play, i would take that scenario over being one good starter short of missing the playoffs. You can always trade Anderson/Nelson following the 2018 season. I could see acquiring a great bullpen instead of a starter, but that is even a bigger crapshoot year to year - so I would rather just keep Hader in the pen.

 

I would say put the money that would go to a starter into a position player, but where is there a position where we can really see a more than an incremental upgrade over what we have, considering both cost and performance? 2B? Walker heads the list basically. Trade? Possible, but I don't know if there are any better 2B that are available that way either.

 

We've done the 30+ year old rotations before. It hasn't worked. I want to try these young arms and let a guy like Burnes come up and bulldoze his competition like he has all the way through. Jamming them up at AAA just doesn't do it for me. Let these guys pitch. It's what we have been waiting for, for so long with this organization.

 

Burnes has pitched all of half a season at the AA level and has 145 total innings for this year. Assuming everyone comes out of spring training healthy you can maybe delay his start a bit and send him to AA (better weather) for a month and then send him to AAA and have him available when someone breaks down. That way he will have the innings available in his arm to finish the year in the majors without limiting him on innings. Also helps to delay his status for cost.

[pacopete4]

 

Burnes has pitched all of half a season at the AA level and has 145 total innings for this year. Assuming everyone comes out of spring training healthy you can maybe delay his start a bit and send him to AA (better weather) for a month and then send him to AAA and have him available when someone breaks down. That way he will have the innings available in his arm to finish the year in the majors without limiting him on innings. Also helps to delay his status for cost.

 

I'm completely okay with starting him at AA/AAA to start and allowing the likes of Suter/Jungmann etc.. take the ball for the first month of the season. But if he's rolling like he has been after the Super 2 cutoff, giddy up. Bring the guy up and let's roll.

[JohnBriggs12]

All the guys who didn't pitch in AAA playoffs haven't pitched in nearly 2 weeks and likely have basically shut it down by this point. They aren't likely to be taking days to throw as they would normally between starts.

 

That's why it's between Jungmann, Wilkerson, Guerra, or Garza and the longer they go without calling the first two up and keep trotting Guerra out for one inning, the more it seems they will die with Garza.

[pacopete4]

All the guys who didn't pitch in AAA playoffs haven't pitched in nearly 2 weeks and likely have basically shut it down by this point. They aren't likely to be taking days to throw as they would normally between starts.

 

Can we get a source that you have for this information? How do you know what those guys are doing?

[JohnBriggs12]

All the guys who didn't pitch in AAA playoffs haven't pitched in nearly 2 weeks and likely have basically shut it down by this point. They aren't likely to be taking days to throw as they would normally between starts.

 

Can we get a source that you have for this information? How do you know what those guys are doing?

 

Guys shut it down when their season ends and go home. I don't need a source for that. Unless they were told to be ready, that's what they're doing. Not sure why the Brewers would have prime prospects throwing at this point. If their intention all along were to bring them up (which I doubt), why not just do it?