2018 Starting Rotation

[DuWayne Steurer]

Since this isn't the optimism thread, we just can't ignore we've played three bad/horrible teams. They went 8-1 which is outstanding, beat up on the weak. But I'll give it another month before I start making any conclusions about Chacin or anyone else in the rotation. At least there's hope that this rotation can be just good enough.

 

 

As just pointed out in the optimism thread, the Marlins just took 2 outta 3 in LA. Bad teams are still going to win 65-70 games every year. Sweeps are hard to get, even against bad teams. The Brewers are playing exceptionally well right now, and are getting really good pitching. Counsell (dare I say it) is managing pretty well right now. He's pulling his starters before they get to the melt-down stage and letting his lights-out bullpen handle games for him.

[FVBrewerFan]

Since this isn't the optimism thread, we just can't ignore we've played three bad/horrible teams. They went 8-1 which is outstanding, beat up on the weak. But I'll give it another month before I start making any conclusions about Chacin or anyone else in the rotation. At least there's hope that this rotation can be just good enough.

 

 

As just pointed out in the optimism thread, the Marlins just took 2 outta 3 in LA. Bad teams are still going to win 65-70 games every year. Sweeps are hard to get, even against bad teams. The Brewers are playing exceptionally well right now, and are getting really good pitching. Counsell (dare I say it) is managing pretty well right now. He's pulling his starters before they get to the melt-down stage and letting his lights-out bullpen handle games for him.

 

Yes, beating bad teams is a good thing. I'm not suggesting the last 8 wins should somehow count less. At the same time, when evaluating a player it's fair to point out the competition.

 

All I'm saying is that it's too early to make any conclusions about any of the starters yet, especially when the last two starts for each pitcher was against bad teams. That even includes Anderson who still has to show he can put in an entire season similar to last year. So far, so good, and it's better than the alternative. But again, I want to see another month of starts from all these guys before I make and conclusions.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'll say this about the starters (and Counsell). Looking at the game logs, we've had exactly three starts that have gone 100 pitches. Counsell has done a good job limiting opposing teams looks at his starters, and letting his bullpen lock down games. When your starters aren't going into a lineup a third and definitely not a fourth time through, they're just going to be more effective. Using relievers for multiple innings is effective, and CC has been more willing to do that (as have many managers)

 

This is the new way the game is played, and Counsell is getting that. We didn't need a TOR starter as much as we needed a revamped bullpen, and not only did we get one, we got one on the cheap.

[homer]

Pythagorean W/L is 14 - 11 so there's a bit of luck involved but it's not like this is a sub .500 team getting lucky every day.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Quality of opponent really doesn't mean much to me in baseball. The game can be so random at times that I take any and all wins I can get. We've seen numerous "good" Brewers teams go on horrible skids where the toilets of the league beat them up. All these wins count the same in getting to the magic number.

 

I still have this sinking feeling about this weekend's series, but even if they go 0-4 it's just another reason why you need to beat up Miami and KC when you get the chance.

[And That]

I still have this sinking feeling about this weekend's series, but even if they go 0-4 it's just another reason why you need to beat up Miami and KC when you get the chance.

Exactly. I actually have a bad feeling about this weekend's series because the bullpen's luck has to run out at some point.

[Tbadder]

I wish CC would change his mind about Woodruff and give him a string of starts, but I think he hates walks a lot and therefore Suter queues ahead of Brandon. I think I saw somewhere that Woodruff is like 4 something per 9 innings in Colorado.

[Mr Southpaw]

We will see what Suter does today. It may be his last start if the Cubbies mash him. I really hope he makes them look silly and gets the win.

[Never Outhustled]

The rotation is 5th in the majors in ERA. Despite all the offseasons doom and gloom about the starting pitching, he offense remains the major weakness, and the pitching is great.

[Boomer5]

It’s gettimg time to discuss CC and DJ as our LaRussa and Duncan.

[monty57]

The rotation is 5th in the majors in ERA. Despite all the offseasons doom and gloom about the starting pitching, he offense remains the major weakness, and the pitching is great.

 

There may have been some "doom and gloom," but most (like me) thought it was just odd that the team built a roster where we'd have an All-Star caliber player sitting on the bench while we had guys like Sogard, Perez and Villar getting regular PAs and Suter / Miley in the rotation.

 

I liked that we added Chacin, and when they decided to keep Hader in the pen I hoped they would get one more guy on a shorter-term deal as a bridge to our talented prospects, allowing Suter to be the "long man" in the pen. Suter has been our weak link and is now being moved to the "long man" role. Who knows, maybe Miley will end up being the guy I was hoping we'd get.

 

I am very glad that Anderson is proving that last year wasn't a fluke and that Guerra seems to have found his 2016 form.

 

As to the offense, injuries have certainly hurt, but the big problem is still that we have too many "automatic outs" in the lineup on a daily basis. Everybody expected Santana to be better than this, but there was a lot of reason to believe that Sogard, Perez and Villar would be bad, and Arcia's value is defense, not offense.

 

We have limited resources, and this offseason the Brewers spent them on Yelich, Cain and bullpen help. Those guys have been fine, but we're 23rd in offense in ISO, 24th in OBP and 23rd in Runs scored. We need some of the guys who weren't upgraded to play better, or it's going to be time to give up on them.

[xisxisxis]

We have limited resources, and this offseason the Brewers spent them on Yelich, Cain and bullpen help. Those guys have been fine, but we're 23rd in offense in ISO, 24th in OBP and 23rd in Runs scored. We need some of the guys who weren't upgraded to play better, or it's going to be time to give up on them.

 

Take away Cain and Yellich and we would likely be in last place for OBP. Just looking at OBP-BA (sorted, descending) and OPS we have:

 

[pre]Player OBP-BA OPS

Lorenzo Cain 0.113 0.864

Eric Thames 0.101 0.976

Travis Shaw 0.090 0.818

Domingo Santana 0.088 0.582

Christian Yelich 0.085 0.762

Jett Bandy 0.081 0.538

Manny Pina 0.078 0.546

Eric Sogard 0.062 0.345

Jesus Aguilar 0.048 0.934

----------------------------------

Orlando Arcia 0.037 0.532

Jonathan Villar 0.034 0.619

Ryan Braun 0.033 0.766

Hernan Perez 0.030 0.530[/pre]

 

Just looking at the Mendoza line for OBP-BA we see the familiar names. We are getting absolutely nothing out of those 4 except for a few HR from Braun. Those are not good numbers for long-term success and these are the players that are killing the Brewers offense. While still less than 100PA for most, those numbers are disturbing for the next few years of Ryan Braun production. While Sogards abysmal BA and OPS negate any positive his ability to take a walk brings, there may be upside especially if CC uses him in the right way (almost the opposite of now - chances CC pulls his head out of his ass 1/100,000).

 

Arcia is young and might show some improvements (although his approach this year is reflected in his numbers) so he should get most of the playing time at SS.

 

Villar is just not a good hitter. Sure, if he can get his average up to over 300 he isn't an OBP hole, but his OPS is leaning toward 2016 being a total fluke. We should look for a replacement ASAP and use any hot streak as an opportunity to sell, sell, sell.

 

Perez is crap, But he can play crap at so many positions he's considered valuable... Pass, pass, replace, replace...

 

Braun is untradeable and likely not worth a fraction of his paycheck the next few years. He should be strictly platooning once Thames returns. At least we can get some bump from him facing only left handers.

 

4 OBP failures (Arcia, Braun, Villar, Perez), 6 OPS failures (Santana, Sogard, Arcia, Perez, C and P) and its pretty clear why this offense is offensive.

 

The other black hole in this lineup is pitchers. We are 39 games into the season and we have 2 hits from our starting pitchers! That is abysmal and another contribution to a woeful offense. Sure the pitching has been lights out, but if the starters wonder why the offense can't score any runs in support there should be at least one mirror in the clubhouse for them...Sure, nobody expects anything from the pitchers, but that's hyperbole, we expect league average from the pitchers, not league WORST.

[pacopete4]

Braun’s been our best hitter the last two weeks even being stung with some bad luck he’s posting damn near a 1.000 OPS

[xisxisxis]

And even with that surge of offense his OPS is only .752 which makes last year the new norm and he is taking walks at a career worst rate. I've been waiting all season (29 games = 18%) for him to adjust his approach at the plate and I don't see any improvement. And Braun doesn't even have an injury as an excuse. He's in his age 34 year, off roids or avoiding anything detectable and he's aging. Injuries can be worked around as long as hes producing 3-4 WAR, but right now he's on pace for 0.8 WAR. At his salary the Brewers need the 3-4 WAR and at this point they are washing 20-25% of their payroll down the drain. I wouldn't be on his case at all if he actually took some walks instead of swinging at balls down and in, away, over, up.... on Gameday I wouldn't be able to tell his AB from Villars if they didn't show the players info.

[djoctagone]

zach davies isn't quite ready to be activated yet. brandon woodruff will be recalled to pitch tomorrow in colorado. woodruff will be on five days' rest, after pitching 2.2 innings for colorado springs on saturday.

[djoctagone]

today: jhoulys chacin

friday: brandon woodruff

saturday: chase anderson

sunday: brent suter (tentatively)

monday: junior guerra

tuesday: chacin

wednesday: woodruff

thursday: off

 

all will be on five days' rest or longer (assuming suter doesn't pitch in relief). they're okay for the moment without davies. again, the increased number of off days over the 162-game schedule is really allowing the brewers to get away with a four-man rotation from time to time. with minor injuries, this is huge.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

If they have to use Suter in long relief due to a short start, they have F.Peralta on the 40 man. His regular turn in the rotation is Saturday, so they could hold him back and have him start for us on Sunday. He's pitched well this year.

 

I can dream.

[Outlander]

I hope they take that route. I like Suter much more in the bullpen and gives Peralta a taste of the majors. With the off day next week it is easy to send Peralta back diwn after tbe game

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I hope they take that route. I like Suter much more in the bullpen and gives Peralta a taste of the majors. With the off day next week it is easy to send Peralta back diwn after tbe game

 

Given how Peralta has been rocked in Colorado Springs this year, I HIGHLY doubt the team is going to have him make his Major League debut at Coors.

[adambr2]

I hope they take that route. I like Suter much more in the bullpen and gives Peralta a taste of the majors. With the off day next week it is easy to send Peralta back diwn after tbe game

 

Given how Peralta has been rocked in Colorado Springs this year, I HIGHLY doubt the team is going to have him make his Major League debut at Coors.

 

It was really just one outing. But I don’t think they’ll call Freddy up unless they have to.

[YelichPosse]

Sorry if this is just Brewer's history tricking my brain, but..... Davies sure sounds like it may end up more serious than just a day to day, doesn't anyone else feel that way?

[FVBrewerFan]

Sorry if this is just Brewer's history tricking my brain, but..... Davies sure sounds like it may end up more serious than just a day to day, doesn't anyone else feel that way?

 

Yes. Well, I feel this COULD be the case. Any time I hear about a pitcher's arm injury being minor, I always have doubts.

[Mr Southpaw]

If they have to use Suter in long relief due to a short start, they have F.Peralta on the 40 man. His regular turn in the rotation is Saturday, so they could hold him back and have him start for us on Sunday. He's pitched well this year.

 

I can dream.

 

Sometimes dreams come true!

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Based on Peralta's huge smile yesterday, his wildest dreams came true. Great for him. I hope he can keep on doing it in the majors.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The last 7-10 days have turned this rotation into anything but consistent, late scratches (Anderson), DL stints (Davies/Miley), early in-game exits via injury (Miley), inconsistency (Guerra), and continued struggles with being yo-yo-ed around at the MLB level (Woodruff) have tested the 40 man roster depth on the pitching front. The big positive is overall, they've held things together pretty well, and there are options to keep it up for awhile.

 

I do feel like Davies' shoulder is more than a minor blip, and he's going to miss a few more weeks if we are lucky. Does anyone know whether they did an MRI on it or are they just crossing their fingers it's nothing more than inflammation bugging him? Peralta should probably stay up and in the rotation until Davies returns. I'd say Burnes would be ready to take Guerra or Suter's spot should they scuffle, but that would require adding Burnes to the 40-man and dropping someone from it at a time when they don't have alot of flexibility there...although Sogard's AAA performance to date (and MLB performance previously) should make him completely expendable - particularly with Saladino around as a better option than Sogard even when Sogard is hitting over his presumed weight (~150).