2018 Starting Rotation

[FVBrewerFan]

I was out there like a voice in the wilderness in the off season saying they needed to allow Guerra a chance to show he was back to his 2016 version because if he was, that would be a key to the season. I had an inkling he would be. Perhaps they did too which is why they didn't go overboard to sign a FA. Guerra isn't a long term solution, but the system seems full of candidates for that. But as far as helping them get over the hump this season, he's great to have. So far, so good. At the very least, if he keeps performing well but the team in general doesn't, he'll have value at the deadline to a team that needs an extra starter.

 

I don't know that you were a voice in the wildnerness,, but I agree with you- and a lot of people here do as well. They signed Chacin then figured they would roll with Guerra, Gallardo, Miley, Suter, etc. in Spring Training and see what sticks.

 

It is a tremendous risk for a team like the Brewers to devote a big percentage of salary to a good, nor great, SP for multiple years. As you said, they have help on the way very soon so guys like Chacin and Guerra serve as an inexpensive bridge. I much rather see Burnes or Peralta in the rotation than Cobb or Lynn.

[homer]

Nelson is tentatively scheduled to throw off a mound on or around April 20th. So he could theoretically be back by early June.

[Fear The Chorizo]

It's also nice to note that the current Brewers starting 5 + Nelson have an overall payroll hit of just under $19M for the 2018 season. The Cubs' current starting 5 sits at ~$78M, with two starters (Lester and Darvish) each making way more than the entire Brewers' rotation + Nelson. With the internal options working their way up through the minors that will take up rotation spots at pre-arbitration MLB salaries, the Brewers' starting pitcher payroll commitment will probably remain in the $20-$30 Million range even with expected salary increases for Nelson, Anderson, and Davies as they near free agency. The Cubs' costs will undoubtedly continue to increase as Hendricks and Quintana's salaries jump in the coming years.

 

No doubt that the Cubs' rotation has the names and overall better track record - however it will be interesting to keep an eye on how 2018 starting staff performances compare. Super early, but the current comparison has the Cubs' rotation averaging 5IP per start with an ERA around 5.3, while Brewers' starters are also averaging 5IP per start but have an ERA around 4.3.

[monty57]

To me it seems like Stearns & Co. are trying to be on the leading edge of valuing their bullpen and giving them as many innings as possible - it could also be based on analysis of their current rotation options having poor results when pitching to a lineup the third time (something pretty much all MLB starters show, but guys like Chacin and Suter are even more pronounced).

 

I've been thinking the same thing. Stearns seems to want guys in the rotation who can go 4-5 innings without completely sinking the team, and a strong bullpen with several guys who can go multiple innings a few times a week. Top that off with guys with options who can be shuffled to AAA after a long outing (or when the #5 can be skipped) to bring in a fresh arm.

 

I'm skeptical as to whether this can work over a 162-game season, but for the Brewers' sake, I sure hope it does. It would sure help the situation if we could get some 6-8 inning outings at least a couple of times a week.

[pacopete4]

A starting pitcher can't pitch 6 innings a start if you never let him finish the 5th.

 

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/022/138/reece.jpg

[ThisIsMyCrew]

A starting pitcher can't pitch 6 innings a start if you never let him finish the 5th.

 

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/022/138/reece.jpg

 

 

This had me laughing today!

[NYChez]

Anderson, Davies, and Chacin (ugh) have spots lined up. Around May 15, what odds would you put on the other guys being in the rotation?

 

I'll put Guerra at 80%, thinking he's not going to fall off far from his current high level of performance.

 

Miley is at 60%. If he comes close to his spring performance, he turns into a significant asset.

 

Woodruff at 35%. He did not get sent to the minors due to performance, and he's pitching well in Colorado Springs.

 

Suter at 25%. Woodruff gets the slight nod due to having a higher likelihood of getting through the 6th inning.

[pacopete4]

If Miley doesn’t have a set back I think he will join the rotation with either Guerra or Suter depending how the next few weeks go.

[bjkrautk]

If Miley doesn’t have a set back I think he will join the rotation with either Guerra or Suter depending how the next few weeks go.

 

That's pretty close to my thoughts on the subject as well. So long as Guerra continues to pitch like the 2016 version of himself, you have to assume he's locked in to the #4 spot in the rotation.

 

The question of whether Miley pitches in long relief vs. as the #5 starter largely comes down to how well Suter pitches before Miley is fully ready to return. While Counsell does not let most Brewers starters go much beyond 6 innings / 100 pitches, it's hard for me to see the team wanting to spend a full season of Suter barely being able to reach the 6th inning. Suter has been good, but not durable; Miley has been durable, but not particularly good as a MLB pitcher.

 

My gut says Suter gets a game or two off from starting, then gets plugged back into the rotation, barring an injury to the other 4 starting pitchers.

[FVBrewerFan]

To me it seems like Stearns & Co. are trying to be on the leading edge of valuing their bullpen and giving them as many innings as possible - it could also be based on analysis of their current rotation options having poor results when pitching to a lineup the third time (something pretty much all MLB starters show, but guys like Chacin and Suter are even more pronounced).

 

I've been thinking the same thing. Stearns seems to want guys in the rotation who can go 4-5 innings without completely sinking the team, and a strong bullpen with several guys who can go multiple innings a few times a week. Top that off with guys with options who can be shuffled to AAA after a long outing (or when the #5 can be skipped) to bring in a fresh arm.

 

I'm skeptical as to whether this can work over a 162-game season, but for the Brewers' sake, I sure hope it does. It would sure help the situation if we could get some 6-8 inning outings at least a couple of times a week.

 

I really doubt that's the plan. Using 4.5 innings, that's 729 innings from the bullpen! Not even including extra innings, so it would be more like 750.

 

I just think it's easing them in, being careful.

[JohnBriggs12]

The offense and defense is key to how long starters go. If the score was 5-0 last night, Guerra finishes the 6th and likely starts the 7th. With very little offense,being generated early, those first 4-5 take on added stress which means higher pitch counts. Add in errors extending innings and 5 innings is an accomplishment.

[Eye Black]

I think Freddy Peralta will have some immediate success at the MLB level. With his delivery and release point he strikes me as the type of pitcher that MLB hitters will struggle with early on when they haven’t faced him before. If his control continues to improve he could be a viable rotation addition.

 

Most previous reports have had Peralta’s fastball in the 89-92 mph range, but I noticed that Pitch f/x recorded him topping 94-mph in a Spring outing (granted a one inning appearance). I am excited to see Peralta eventually get a chance in the MLB rotation.

[clancyphile]

Years of control my also factor in.

 

Suter's still cheap. So are Davies, Woodruff, and Guerra.

 

Lot of baseball to be played through the end of June.

[NYChez]

Hopefully we don't get to this point, but it could be interesting to see how many subpar starts Chacin gets before he gets replaced in the rotation. Back in 1992, the Brewers stuck with veterans Bruce Ruffin and Ron Robinson for 14 starts (in which they went a combined 2-10 with an ERA over 6) before finally handing the ball to rookie Cal Eldred (who went 11-2 with a sub 2 ERA in his 14 starts). Sticking with the struggling vets too long likely cost the Brewers the division and quite possibly the World Series.

[brewmann04]

Think Guerra stays but not sure about Suter.

[Tbadder]

I have no proof, but I wonder if the Brewers were always wary of Hader as a starter. He’s a two pitch pitcher who loses velocity in the middle innings when starting. I like him a lot more as a fireman than a starter. Basically I want Knebel and Hader pitching all the Brewers most important innings, can’t do that if Hader is starting. It seems to me that baseball has changed, maybe permanently. The math just says most starters can’t handle the third time though the order. That’s why there’s so many 8 men bullpens.

 

I don’t think we can count on Nelson to pick up where he left off (hope he can, but it might be too much to ask). And given the observations by others that Peralta and Burnes have to be innings limited my guess is that we might go with a six man rotation:

 

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Guerra

Peralta

Burnes

 

Then again there are so many options. If Nelson does come back strong and Miley somehow doesn’t pitch like Miley, then maybe the Brewers choose to keep Peralta and Burnes at Colorado for the year with Chacin moving to spot starting and long relief. Who knows? Great question.

[JohnBriggs12]

Time to cycle back to Woodruff in the 5th spot? Suter's ERA sitting. at 5.68. That's not terrible over a still small sample, but they have multiple alternatives.

[DuWayne Steurer]

They need to try something else in Suter's spot. Woodruff, Peralta, Burnes.......something. Dude had a little bit of success last year first time through the league, which is not unheard of. He's a junkballer who nobody had seen before. It's time to get someone in the rotation who has some actual stuff and gets guys out.

[JosephC]

I really, really, really want to see Woodruff back in the Brewer's rotation, but I think I'd stick with Suter for a few more starts...although he'll probably end up getting bumped soon enough when Miley is ready (the worst of all possibilities IMO...as in J.J. Hoover except in the starting rotation).

 

2016-2018 MLB numbers:

-Brent Suter = 128 2/3 innings, 3.85 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 3.91 FIP, 112 ERA+, 2.97 K/BB

-Jhoulys Chacin = 348 innings, 4.29 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 4.22 FIP, 96 ERA+, 2.06 K/BB

-Zach Davies = 377 innings, 3.99 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 4.12 FIP, 108 ERA+, 2.79 K/BB

-Junior Guerra = 203 innings, 3.50 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 4.65 FIP, 123 ERA+, 1.96 K/BB

-Chase Anderson = 320 2/3 innings, 3.56 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 4.49 FIP, 121 ERA+, 2.66 K/BB

 

Suter will obviously fail the eyeball test every single time. But is he really the worst pitcher in the Brewer's rotation right now? I'm not saying that he's not, but the numbers don't expose him as being a weak link.

[clancyphile]

I really, really, really want to see Woodruff back in the Brewer's rotation, but I think I'd stick with Suter for a few more starts...although he'll probably end up getting bumped soon enough when Miley is ready (the worst of all possibilities IMO...as in J.J. Hoover except in the starting rotation).

 

2016-2018 MLB numbers:

-Brent Suter = 128 2/3 innings, 3.85 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 3.91 FIP, 112 ERA+, 2.97 K/BB

-Jhoulys Chacin = 348 innings, 4.29 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 4.22 FIP, 96 ERA+, 2.06 K/BB

-Zach Davies = 377 innings, 3.99 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 4.12 FIP, 108 ERA+, 2.79 K/BB

-Junior Guerra = 203 innings, 3.50 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 4.65 FIP, 123 ERA+, 1.96 K/BB

-Chase Anderson = 320 2/3 innings, 3.56 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 4.49 FIP, 121 ERA+, 2.66 K/BB

 

Suter will obviously fail the eyeball test every single time. But is he really the worst pitcher in the Brewer's rotation right now? I'm not saying that he's not, but the numbers don't expose him as being a weak link.

 

Really, the one signing that never made sense to me was Chacin. At the time, they had Jungmann, Woodruff, and Guerra who could have handled that spot. Woodruff had done decently for the last part of 2017.

 

They did have Burnes, Freddy Peralta, and Ortiz coming up as well.

[Greenleaf1]

With Nelson out, and Guerra coming off an abysmal season, and a surprisingly decent team overperforming last year, they were sitting on a rotation that at best had 2 sure starters and a bunch of giant question marks. If Guerra came out and was as bad as last year, Suter performed like he is performing, and Woodruff doesn't take a step forward, you're looking at one of the worst rotations in baseball. Chacin helped lock it down and guarantee some innings, and so far that's what he would be doing if our bullpen wasn't as good as it is, which has allowed Counsell to give his starters the early hook.

 

The early success of the bullpen has not left a lot of open spots for the new guys, especially with Knebel and Logan coming back soon. If there aren't any injuries on the pitching staff, we're going to have some major congestion there. Luckily, there's not really a rush to give guys like Peralta/Burnes this year and they can easily wait until after the trade deadline.

 

I wonder if Woodruff ends up being shopped at the trade deadline in order to clear space for Burnes/Peralta. Maybe we find a way to move Chacin to the bullpen to clear space? Or maybe injuries take care of all of this for us.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Woodruff is every bit the prospect Burnes and Peralta are, but he's a little further ahead in his development, and has ML experience, which seems to have dulled his shine a little bit here. It's not just you, Greenleaf, but several others have talked about him in trades, while saying Burnes and Peralta are off limits. As far as I am concerned, all three are potential starters for us, or currency for trades down the road to firm up trouble spots, such as 2B and maybe catcher.

[coolhandluke121]

 

I really doubt that's the plan. Using 4.5 innings, that's 729 innings from the bullpen!

 

What's wrong with that? If you have enough guys with options and you give them enough days off, there's no reason you shouldn't be able to pull it off. Pitchers in general can pitch more total innings if they have fewer outings. The reason relievers can't handle more innings is because they often appear in 60-70 games. You might only get 80 innings that way, but if you keep it at 45-50 games, I think you can get 100 or more.

[adambr2]

 

I really doubt that's the plan. Using 4.5 innings, that's 729 innings from the bullpen!

 

What's wrong with that? If you have enough guys with options and you give them enough days off, there's no reason you shouldn't be able to pull it off. Pitchers in general can pitch more total innings if they have fewer outings. The reason relievers can't handle more innings is because they often appear in 60-70 games. You might only get 80 innings that way, but if you keep it at 45-50 games, I think you can get 100 or more.

 

Yeah, and it's not like it's going to be 7-8 guys handling that workload. It'll be 10-12.

[Tbadder]

The real wonder here is that the Brewers have options. Man, it just feels good to talk about internal solutions rather than looking at the trade deadline. I’ve been following the Crew since they arrived and the fact that we have 3 viable, young, options at AAA. Well, it just blows an old-timer’s mind.