2018 Starting Rotation

[Outlander]

With the increase in off days it is easier to accomplish if they went that route. Looking at the schedule they could get to at least the first week of June if they rotated between Guerra/Woodruff, not that it will ever happen.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Honest question --

 

What would stop the Brewers from 'floating' an extra roster spot the entire season by rotating Guerra and Woodruff between AAA and MLB, sending them back down after a start, and calling up the other when a 5th spot is needed, since they would always meet the 10 day down requirement by then.

 

I don't see anything within the rules that would stop them, and by my estimate they could float an extra roster spot the entire season except on the days that they actually need a 5th starter.

 

Also, since each one would only be spending about 20ish days on the active MLB roster in the season, could they negotiate to just pay them both their regular MLB salary anyway (since that's going to be a relatively small amount anyway compared to the overall payroll).

 

I'm just honestly curious as to whether this would be legal.

That’s basically what the Dodgers did last year except they used the 10-day DL instead of the minor league options

[paul253]

Brinson's hitting .140 and slugging .140. Isan Diaz is hitting .067 in AAA. Harrison is hitting .143 in AA. Yamamoto hasn't appeared in a game (hurt?). Early returns are the Brewers stole Yelich

 

That’s not the point. My point was that if they were willing to trade such talented prospects I think they should have done it to shore up the biggest hole on the team. Not to add to the biggest strength. That doesn’t mean it was a bad deal or that I don’t like Yelich. I just think it would have been a better idea to target pitching so we didn’t have to go all year relying on guys like Suter, Miley and/or Guerra.

[coolhandluke121]

 

That’s not the point. My point was that if they were willing to trade such talented prospects I think they should have done it to shore up the biggest hole on the team. Not to add to the biggest strength. That doesn’t mean it was a bad deal or that I don’t like Yelich. I just think it would have been a better idea to target pitching so we didn’t have to go all year relying on guys like Suter, Miley and/or Guerra.

 

But good options to shore up the starting pitching weren't available. You don't pass up great trades and make risky ones just because of current needs. Needs change too quickly for that.

 

The only time you might even consider something like that is when you're clearly going to make the playoffs and be a legit contender, but you have a glaring need. And even then, ask yourself how many wins you're costing yourself in the long term.

[adambr2]

Brinson's hitting .140 and slugging .140. Isan Diaz is hitting .067 in AAA. Harrison is hitting .143 in AA. Yamamoto hasn't appeared in a game (hurt?). Early returns are the Brewers stole Yelich

 

That’s not the point. My point was that if they were willing to trade such talented prospects I think they should have done it to shore up the biggest hole on the team. Not to add to the biggest strength. That doesn’t mean it was a bad deal or that I don’t like Yelich. I just think it would have been a better idea to target pitching so we didn’t have to go all year relying on guys like Suter, Miley and/or Guerra.

 

Ok, who specifically? Archer? There's no way he's worth more than Yelich IMO. Gray? No way. You're talking 2 years control versus 5, completely different windows.

 

My point is that it's easy to say to use them to shore up the biggest hole, but harder in practice. If the Mets had been shopping Syndergaard, maybe that would have been our priority. But Yelich was a unique opportunity and that opportunity wasn't necessarily there for a pitcher.

[liveforoctober]

Honest question --

 

What would stop the Brewers from 'floating' an extra roster spot the entire season by rotating Guerra and Woodruff between AAA and MLB, sending them back down after a start, and calling up the other when a 5th spot is needed, since they would always meet the 10 day down requirement by then.

 

I don't see anything within the rules that would stop them, and by my estimate they could float an extra roster spot the entire season except on the days that they actually need a 5th starter.

 

Also, since each one would only be spending about 20ish days on the active MLB roster in the season, could they negotiate to just pay them both their regular MLB salary anyway (since that's going to be a relatively small amount anyway compared to the overall payroll).

 

I'm just honestly curious as to whether this would be legal.

 

I am not sure there is anything stopping them as far as rules go. I wonder if there are any recent examples of a team having a permanent/same rotation of guys from AAA/MLB to cover a pitching spot and results from it?

 

That is pretty taxing on the player I would think... a lot of added pressure. I would think right now Guerra is going to get another start to prove his first wasn't a fluke. If he fails Woodruff might come back? At that point Woodruff probably puts a ton of pressure on himself to pitch well because it he doesn't he is gone again, etc. Guys should always strive for their best, but the added stress of team security will start to toll I would think.

 

I'm not for or against the idea .. just thinking out loud.

[paul253]

But good options to shore up the starting pitching weren't available

 

Not one quality pitcher was available for trade? I think even Gerritt Cole would have helped.

 

Ok, who specifically? Archer? There's no way he's worth more than Yelich IMO. Gray? No way. You're talking 2 years control versus 5, completely different windows

 

You cant just say which is more valuable 2 years of Gray or 5 years of Yelich. You have to look at he whole picture. If they had acquired Gray, for instance, they still could have signed Cain, had a starting outfield of Cain, Braun, and Santana with Broxton and Philips coming off the bench and Thames and Aguilar platooning at first. I really don’t know how much worse that is than what we have now. Plus then you have Gray in the rotation vs, say, Suter or Guerra. Then also consider Gray probably wouldn’t have cost as much as Yelich, meaning you still have the prospects and then if Gray leaves in two years you have to take into account what they do with the money (or if the trade him who do they get in return). Then there’s also the fact that Gray could have gotten them into the postseason last season. How valuable is that?

 

Regarding Archer. I have no idea if he’s more valuable than Yelich or nkt but in general I’d say pitchers are more valuable than hitters. Yeah he’s had a rough start but it’s only been three games. To be 100% honest if the package was the same and I had my choice of Yelich or Archer I probably would have taken Archer just because pitching was so much more of a need than a LF and LFs are usually much easier to find. Obviously others are free to disagree. That’s just my opinion.

[coolhandluke121]

I don't really think there's anything wrong with it, but it might depend on the player. Some guys probably need a routine more than others. A guy with Greinke's personality could be a disaster in a situation like that, for example. It would also be hard for guys who need to have some semblance of a stable living space, at least when their team has "home" games. It could also lead to even more flights, jet lag, etc. And of course it doesn't happen when a team thinks one guy is a little better than another, which is often the case. You just keep the better player up all year in that case.

 

But I think a real reason it doesn't happen is because it's not established as a thing you have to do to gain a competitive edge. Once teams do it a little more and milk a few extra wins out of their staff, like the Dodgers last year and hopefully the Brewers this year, it will become more common. I have to imagine there was a time when even using a reliever at all was frowned upon, but of course teams had to adapt when the strategy proved successful.

 

(ETA: referring to shuttle service with starters)

[Austin Tatious]

Pitchers are ahead of hitters this early in the season by a wide margin.

 

But, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta at triple A have talent and could be factors the second half of the year. Luis Ortiz needs to get his innings up but he obviously has potential at double A and may be a factor by the second half of 2019. Zack Brown looks good and Thomas Hankins has some under the radar value. Brandon Woodruff did too once.

 

I’d rather build up our homegrown young talent than get involved with middling pitchers. There’s more minor league hype than there ever was before, but it feels like we have more legit arms bubbling up than we ever had before. With the numbers we have, and with Jimmy coming back, I’m fairly bullish on our pitching into the future. We may not have that top end front line starter, but who knows, maybe somebody emerges.

[clancyphile]

Pitchers are ahead of hitters this early in the season by a wide margin.

 

But, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta at triple A have talent and could be factors the second half of the year. Luis Ortiz needs to get his innings up but he obviously has potential at double A and may be a factor by the second half of 2019. Zack Brown looks good and Thomas Hankins has some under the radar value. Brandon Woodruff did too once.

 

I’d rather build up our homegrown young talent than get involved with middling pitchers. There’s more minor league hype than there ever was before, but it feels like we have more legit arms bubbling up than we ever had before. With the numbers we have, and with Jimmy coming back, I’m fairly bullish on our pitching into the future. We may not have that top end front line starter, but who knows, maybe somebody emerges.

 

I'm with Austin on this.

 

I'll go a bit further. Even if the talent we have only emerges as a #3, for about six years, they are superb assets. Would you rather pay Garza/Suppan/Wolf/Lohse/Looper $12 million a year for 30 starts with a 4.50 ERA (or higher), or pay Brent Suter $500K for similar numbers?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Interesting stat I hadn't noticed:

 

In the last five games Brewers starting pitchers have a 2.63 ERA (8 ER in 27.1 innings) with 17 strikeouts.

 

The flipside is that they're only going about 5 1/3 on average, but it's encouraging.

[monty57]

I'll go a bit further. Even if the talent we have only emerges as a #3, for about six years, they are superb assets. Would you rather pay Garza/Suppan/Wolf/Lohse/Looper $12 million a year for 30 starts with a 4.50 ERA (or higher), or pay Brent Suter $500K for similar numbers?

 

I'm hoping it doesn't have to be a choice between two bad outcomes. I hope we can pay league minimum for good production, freeing up payroll for acquisitions or extensions of good players.

 

You're spot-on with the first sentence. We have a lot of pitching talent in the minors that will help us in some way in the future. Even if that is a bullpen arm or middle-of-the-rotation starter, that's a lot of production for league minimum that can help the team a lot.

[monty57]

Interesting stat I hadn't noticed:

 

In the last five games Brewers starting pitchers have a 2.63 ERA (8 ER in 27.1 innings) with 17 strikeouts.

 

The flipside is that they're only going about 5 1/3 on average, but it's encouraging.

 

That is a good sign.

 

I think we can be okay with 5-6 inning starts, as long as we occasionally get a 7-8 inning start peppered in here and there to rest the 'pen. We have some pitchers who are capable of that, but it would be really nice to have "that guy" who can do it semi-regularly. Unfortunately, "that guy" is hard to find in today's world of baseball. Nelson coming back strong will surely help.

[RollieTime]

There was a lot of speculation this past offseason about the Brewers going after a top arm in free agency to bolster the starting rotation. Stearns stood pat and rolled out a back end of the rotation that was questionable to a lot of people.

 

I wonder if Stearns began the season with the starting rotation structure as it is knowing that Burnes will be brought up early in the season and did not want to be locked into a long term contract with our starting pitching depth in the minors as strong as it is. Stearns knew Burnes would be inserted into the rotation once his Super 2 eligibility had passed around mid May.

 

Anderson

Davies

Burnes

Chacin

Guerra/Suter/Woodruff

 

With Nelson returning mid season, this starting rotation could really be dominant down the stretch.

 

In my opinion, Stearns was initially comfortable starting the season with Suter and Woodruff rounding out the rotation knowing that it would only be for a handful of starts until Burnes is brought up to replace whoever is struggling in the rotation. It may have looked like a plan that was not complete, but I see it being complete once Burnes is inserted into the rotation after a few more weeks.

[Tbadder]

What I’d like to know is the past history on injuries like Nelson’s. I’ve heard hopeful prognosis’ but I’ve also heard nightmare scenarios as well. For me, I’m not counting on him for much. If he returns to last years form next year I’d be more than satisfied. Bringing up Burnes this year would be a mistake in my book unless he makes his way through sheer force of will and talent. Like Nelson I’d like to see him next year. However I’m still optimistic because I believe Guerra can return to form, and I’d like to think that the Brewers would give Woodruff and Suter at least 10consecutive starts. I’d root for a rotation something like:

 

Anderson

Davies

Guerra

Suter

Woodruff

 

Giving spot starts to Chacin.

[TJseven7]

CC already stated Burnes and Peralta are options for June. He was asked by a reporter in preseason and gave that stunningly candid response. I think they want to keep woodruff down a bit and get Burnes and Peralta past super 2... but I dont see a way that 2 of them won't be in the rotation come June. Chacin Suter Guerra are the 3-4-5 right now and it would take health from Anderson Davies and 2 of those other 3 to flourish to hold off the kids.

 

Its not just Burnes Woodruff at this point. Peralta's trying to jump them both and so far so good. 3 starts... 5.333 per... 1.13 era 1 whip 11.25k/9. 3-0

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

CC already stated Burnes and Peralta are options for June. He was asked by a reporter in preseason and gave that stunningly candid response. I think they want to keep woodruff down a bit and get Burnes and Peralta past super 2... but I dont see a way that 2 of them won't be in the rotation come June. Chacin Suter Guerra are the 3-4-5 right now and it would take health from Anderson Davies and 2 of those other 3 to flourish to hold off the kids.

 

Its not just Burnes Woodruff at this point. Peralta's trying to jump them both and so far so good. 3 starts... 5.333 per... 1.13 era 1 whip 11.25k/9. 3-0

 

Yep, lets not anoint Burnes the Messiah just yet. He may not even be the best pitching prospect on the Colorado Springs staff, as Peralta has been great and Woodruff has dealt since being demoted.

[FVBrewerFan]

I've been higher on Peralta than anyone, but he did pitch only 120 innings last year. Burnes turned in 146 innings. Just seems like Burnes may be built to go the distance this season, while I don't know if Peralta would make it to the finish line if is called up too early. They could control it somewhat, and maybe jumping to 170-180 innings is something they think he can do, we have no idea.

 

I don't think it's impossible they're both up in June. Just depends on how they pitch between now and then, timing of Nelson's return, and status of Guerra, Davies, Woodruff, and Suter. (Also, probably depends how the season is trending in general.)

[JosephC]

With a big-time veteran like Wade Miley back in June, I'd be very interested to see how interested the Brewers will be in throwing a rookie into the rotation. We currently have Guerra in there and Woodruff in AAA. Woodruff probably only got a rotation shot last year because the team completely ran out of arms. Conventional thought would be that once Miley is ready that Suter will get bumped because it seems pretty obvious that Counsell does not think Suter should be pitching through a lineup three times. If Nelson and Miley are ready at the beginning of July, do I see this collection of "Brewer brass" going with a young pitcher or just sticking with Anderson, Nelson, Chacin, Davies and Miley/Guerra? My guess would be Anderson, Nelson, Chacin, Davies and Miley/Guerra. And of course if Nelson isn't ready they still have Anderson, Chacin, Davies, Suter, Miley and Guerra all as options. I'm certainly not saying that I don't want to see the rookies in there (my whole off-season strategy would have been built around easing guys like Brinson, Phillips, Woodruff, Burnes, Taylor Williams, etc into big league roles). But what I would like to see the Brewers do and what they actually do tends to be on opposite ends of the spectrum most of the time.

[Mr Southpaw]

I was pretty unhappy that the roster shuffle cost Woodruff the start today but have to hand it to Stearns/Counsell, Junior was great and I can't argue with the results. Hopefully we will get plenty more good starts from him this season.

 

Junior needs to get a month of starts to prove that he isn't the pitcher he was two years ago. Ride that horse until he stops running!

 

Keep riding that horse!

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Two great starts from Junior, one against what I would say is a top-level offense. One run in 11 innings. That is great to see.

 

I don't know if it lasts, but I think it's worth it to find out. Nelson, Davies, Anderson, Chacin, Guerra can keep you in a lot of games, with Woodruff and Suter there for depth.

[JohnBriggs12]

I was out there like a voice in the wilderness in the off season saying they needed to allow Guerra a chance to show he was back to his 2016 version because if he was, that would be a key to the season. I had an inkling he would be. Perhaps they did too which is why they didn't go overboard to sign a FA. Guerra isn't a long term solution, but the system seems full of candidates for that. But as far as helping them get over the hump this season, he's great to have. So far, so good. At the very least, if he keeps performing well but the team in general doesn't, he'll have value at the deadline to a team that needs an extra starter.

[brewcrewdue80]

Havent read through this and caught up. So I could be saying something already said. But of the Big 4 FA SPs, only Arrieta is helow 5ERA and hes only thrown 10.2 in 2 starts at 3.38. So the Rotation would be bad thus far in the season no matter who pitched for us. Guerra beats all of them to this point now.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Overriding rotation concern thus far is how early starters are getting pulled from games - most of the time they are pulled while trailing or tied, but if they are getting 0-1 run of run support over the 1st 5 innings it's not on them.

 

However, over the last week it seems like starters are intentionally being yanked early even when they aren't in huge pitch count or game situation binds - in fact I don't think there have been many games at all thus far where the starter flirted with making 100 pitches. Has to be a plan in place for how to manage the pitching staff through this year. To me it seems like Stearns & Co. are trying to be on the leading edge of valuing their bullpen and giving them as many innings as possible - it could also be based on analysis of their current rotation options having poor results when pitching to a lineup the third time (something pretty much all MLB starters show, but guys like Chacin and Suter are even more pronounced). Having the depth and options at AAA, Nelson and Miley on the mend, etc. would seem to alleviate concerns of relievers getting burned out by having a pile of starters/middle relievers to draw from. If only the offense could start scoring 5-6 runs more consistently things could really get interesting.

[TooLiveBrew]

Overriding rotation concern thus far is how early starters are getting pulled from games - most of the time they are pulled while trailing or tied, but if they are getting 0-1 run of run support over the 1st 5 innings it's not on them.

 

However, over the last week it seems like starters are intentionally being yanked early even when they aren't in huge pitch count or game situation binds - in fact I don't think there have been many games at all thus far where the starter flirted with making 100 pitches. Has to be a plan in place for how to manage the pitching staff through this year. To me it seems like Stearns & Co. are trying to be on the leading edge of valuing their bullpen and giving them as many innings as possible - it could also be based on analysis of their current rotation options having poor results when pitching to a lineup the third time (something pretty much all MLB starters show, but guys like Chacin and Suter are even more pronounced). Having the depth and options at AAA, Nelson and Miley on the mend, etc. would seem to alleviate concerns of relievers getting burned out by having a pile of starters/middle relievers to draw from. If only the offense could start scoring 5-6 runs more consistently things could really get interesting.

This is anecdotal, but I feel like it's been pretty common (at least for the Brewers in recent years) to not run starters out there for 100 pitches/deeper outings all that often this early in the season, regardless of how well a guy is pitching. Seems like they've eased guys into the more midseason pitch counts as opposed to gunning for them right out of the gates.

 

I also wouldn't be shocked if there's a strategic higher useage plan for the bullpen, but my initial hunch is the SPs are just being eased into the season.