2018 Starting Rotation

[pacopete4]

Tyler Chatwood? Is that I'm seeing you want as our #3 or is there someone else I'm missing here?

[bill hAll Star]

Tyler Chatwood? Is that I'm seeing you want as our #3 or is there someone else I'm missing here?

 

Yes. We can forfeit the one game he may have to pitch at Coors every year but otherwise he's a #3 starter and may be a bargain in his prime.

[pacopete4]

Tyler Chatwood? Is that I'm seeing you want as our #3 or is there someone else I'm missing here?

 

Yes. We can forfeit the one game he may have to pitch at Coors every year but otherwise he's a #3 starter and may be a bargain in his prime.

 

Not sure he's any better than Davies. They strike out about the same per/9 but Davies walks guys considerably less. He's also younger, controlled, and cheaper. I don't see a significant upgrade there plus paying $10mil+/year.

[bill hAll Star]

If you put a good defense behind Chatwood, he's probably a little bit better than Davies. He does have the walk issues, but he's a better groundball pitcher than Davies and loses out on an insane HR/FB rate in Coors and average against given all of the extra hits that fall in. I'm assuming his sinker doesn't sink like he wants it to there as well.

 

His ERA away from Coors with the Rockies is 3.24. FIP and xFIP are a bit higher, but part of that is because groundball pitchers trick FIP/xFIP a little bit.

 

If Chatwood is affordable, then you can deal Suter, Guerra, Garza for future minors depth and bullpen help and still have plenty of rotation depth.

 

The reason I do it is because you get another Davies-type pitcher (though I think better than Davies) in years that "overpaying" a pitcher is not an issue. Adding $10 million/year (or whatever he costs) is almost meaningless for the next 2 years. Adding $10 million to payroll in 2022 or 2023 might start to cost us the ability to keep Nelson or Santana or Arcia. You can flip some of your excess at the position to fill other needs or to backfill in the minors.

[Humans Need Water]

At no point should Hader ever be in AAA again, especially when said AAA is located in CS.

 

The comparisons to Sale and Randy Johnson aren't regarding performance (as in what they're going to become) rather that they either started in the pen or it took them a while to get their control figured out before they produced. Those are very relevant comparisons in this regard given they're all lefties, don't have traditional deliveries and have filthy sliders. Sale had solid control right away but still threw a lot of pitches - he's greatly improved on that while Randy is much more comparable to Hader regarding their BB9 rates starting their MLB careers.

 

If you take Hader's pitches per inning given the MLB threshold then 64% of his starts since joining our org would go for 6-7 innings, 24% 5+ innings, 12% 4+ innings. Pitches per inning/start matters much more than the final number of innings that shows in a box score. It's about efficiency. Pitchers don't choose when they're removed from games - they're removed for a lot of different reasons by a lot of different managers with different philosophies.

 

Pitches per inning this year

Suter 15.5

Nelson 15.6

Chase 16

Garza 16.2

Woodruff 16.3

Davies 16.7

Guerra 17.6

*Quintana 16.9 and Gray 16.4

 

Hader

2014 - 14.5 A+ (only has info on 4 starts but it would most likely be closer to 15 or so based on AB, IP over other games compared to these 4)

2015 - 15.9 AA (HOU), 15.8 AA (Brewers)

2016 - 16.9 AA, 18 AAA

2017 - 17.5 AAA (first 10 starts....16.6 through first 8 starts)

*and he's still developing

 

Kershaw and Sale are HOF caliber pitchers and they're averaging 7 innings. So if we're pumping guys out at 6 innings on average then great. Over 33 starts that amounts to 200 innings. That means you're effective.

 

Unless Stearns adds a strong veteran rotation arm to Nelson, Chase, Davies, Woodruff then Hader should have that other spot heading into spring and it's up to him to sink or swim in that role because worst case he's in the back of the pen killing it. A player can't develop without an opportunity and Hader needs that opportunity just like Santana, Arcia, Davies needed theirs.

[Humans Need Water]

If you put a good defense behind Chatwood, he's probably a little bit better than Davies. He does have the walk issues, but he's a better groundball pitcher than Davies and loses out on an insane HR/FB rate in Coors and average against given all of the extra hits that fall in. I'm assuming his sinker doesn't sink like he wants it to there as well.

 

His ERA away from Coors with the Rockies is 3.24. FIP and xFIP are a bit higher, but part of that is because groundball pitchers trick FIP/xFIP a little bit.

 

If Chatwood is affordable, then you can deal Suter, Guerra, Garza for future minors depth and bullpen help and still have plenty of rotation depth.

 

The reason I do it is because you get another Davies-type pitcher (though I think better than Davies) in years that "overpaying" a pitcher is not an issue. Adding $10 million/year (or whatever he costs) is almost meaningless for the next 2 years. Adding $10 million to payroll in 2022 or 2023 might start to cost us the ability to keep Nelson or Santana or Arcia. You can flip some of your excess at the position to fill other needs or to backfill in the minors.

I'd prefer to trade Chase and sign a big name rotation FA. Chatwood, to me, isn't worth spending money on when you have Nelson, Chase, Hader, Woodruff, Davies + Ortiz and/or Burnes by the end of next year. I think all are better and more consistent than Chatwood (he's crazy inconsistent year to year away from Coors). If you're going to spend 10M+ it better be on someone who's absolutely better than half of what we have up/coming through by the end of next year.

[bill hAll Star]

I fully acknowledge that Chatwood is a risk, but one that I think could pay dividends as an undervalued asset.

 

That said, his years away from Coors are generally pretty good. He had 2 bad years on the road and they were in 33 and 11 innings, respectively. Granted, his "good" years are only ones where he pitched 60-80 innings on the road, but I think it's a good risk to take.

 

Other than Darvish I'm not sure who we can pay big money to in the coming years unless Cueto or somebody like that opts out. We're probably stuck at the Lance Lynn/Alex Cobb tier of pitchers.

[paul253]

And on a side, CF is the biggest strength in our system and we'll head into ST with Broxton, Brinson, and Phillips vying for the starting role. Your desire to address CF in the offseason(which implies via trade of FA) shows that you have literally zero willingness to give any prospect a chance at the MLB level. Looking at what Brinson and Phillips are doing at AAA, how in the world can you not even consider them for a starting gig at the MLB level next season

 

Come on man. I said address our current weaknesses this year. Brewers centerfielders are hitting a cool .216 with a .299 OBP, which are both far and away the worst numbers of our position groups. And that includes your prized propsects Brinson and Phillips having shots. I'd say that's pretty weak spot, wouldn't you? Now does that mean I wouldn't give Brinson or Phillips a shot? Of course not. There's a reason I considered Brinson untouchable at the trade deadline. But "addressing our current weaknesses" doesn't necessarily mean benching our top prospects like you believe. It couldn't simply mean signing an adequate veteran backup who can step in when Brinson or Phillips needs a day off or when/if they are in an extended slump. Forgive me for having little faith in Keon Broxton. Accepting the reality of the situation is hardly me having "literally zero willingness to give any prospects a chance at the MLB level"

 

You don't think throwing him back into Colorado Springs would be bad for his development

.

 

No I don't. If he's down there working in becoming a better pitcher then absolutely it can help his development. For instance, he can work on throwing his changeup more often, refining his command and pitching to contact the extend his innings. The last thing you want is someone trying to figure out how to throw a third pitch while he's in the starting rotation in Milwaukee. If he needs to do it in Biloxi then maybe that's the route to go.

 

2014 - 14.5 A+ (only has info on 4 starts but it would most likely be closer to 15 or so based on AB, IP over other games compared to these 4)

2015 - 15.9 AA (HOU), 15.8 AA (Brewers)

2016 - 16.9 AA, 18 AAA

2017 - 17.5 AAA (first 10 starts....16.6 through first 8 starts)

*and he's still developing

 

As I posted earlier his walks per 9 have been getting worse for three years now. People just assume his command will get better. Why? Because Sale and Randy Johnson's did? What about the hundreds of pitchers who didn't figure it out? Are those not valid comparisons?

 

Look, I agree. Hader absolutely should be given a chance to be a major league starter. But we're not at the point either depth wise or team success wise where he should be just given the chance. He needs to earn it. We have 5-6 guys currently ahead of him and while their ceiling may nkt be as high at least they've earned the shot.

[KeithStone53151]

And on a side, CF is the biggest strength in our system and we'll head into ST with Broxton, Brinson, and Phillips vying for the starting role. Your desire to address CF in the offseason(which implies via trade of FA) shows that you have literally zero willingness to give any prospect a chance at the MLB level. Looking at what Brinson and Phillips are doing at AAA, how in the world can you not even consider them for a starting gig at the MLB level next season

 

Come on man. I said address our current weaknesses this year. Brewers centerfielders are hitting a cool .216 with a .299 OBP, which are both far and away the worst numbers of our position groups. And that includes your prized propsects Brinson and Phillips having shots. I'd say that's pretty weak spot, wouldn't you? Now does that mean I wouldn't give Brinson or Phillips a shot? Of course not. There's a reason I considered Brinson untouchable at the trade deadline. But "addressing our current weaknesses" doesn't necessarily mean benching our top prospects like you believe. It couldn't simply mean signing an adequate veteran backup who can step in when Brinson or Phillips needs a day off or when/if they are in an extended slump. Forgive me for having little faith in Keon Broxton. Accepting the reality of the situation is hardly me having "literally zero willingness to give any prospects a chance at the MLB level"

 

You don't think throwing him back into Colorado Springs would be bad for his development

.

 

No I don't. If he's down there working in becoming a better pitcher then absolutely it can help his development. For instance, he can work on throwing his changeup more often, refining his command and pitching to contact the extend his innings. The last thing you want is someone trying to figure out how to throw a third pitch while he's in the starting rotation in Milwaukee. If he needs to do it in Biloxi then maybe that's the route to go.

 

2014 - 14.5 A+ (only has info on 4 starts but it would most likely be closer to 15 or so based on AB, IP over other games compared to these 4)

2015 - 15.9 AA (HOU), 15.8 AA (Brewers)

2016 - 16.9 AA, 18 AAA

2017 - 17.5 AAA (first 10 starts....16.6 through first 8 starts)

*and he's still developing

 

As I posted earlier his walks per 9 have been getting worse for three years now. People just assume his command will get better. Why? Because Sale and Randy Johnson's did? What about the hundreds of pitchers who didn't figure it out? Are those not valid comparisons?

 

Look, I agree. Hader absolutely should be given a chance to be a major league starter. But we're not at the point either depth wise or team success wise where he should be just given the chance. He needs to earn it. We have 5-6 guys currently ahead of him and while their ceiling may nkt be as high at least they've earned the shot.

 

Phillips and Brinson were given sporadic at bats this year, not a real shot to prove anything. They've done literally everything they can at the AAA level. If you aren't willing to give them a shot, I can't imagine another scenario where you'd give anyone a shot. And Sale/Johnson developed well at the MLB level. Pitching at AAA(especially our current situation) can only get you so far. The last stages of development happen at the MLB level. We've given you example after example, but you seem to think he guys need to develop 100% prior to coming up to MLB for some reason...that's not how it works with most prospects. Guys need to be exposed to this level before they fully master their craft...in almost all cases. You will find very few examples of guys coming up from the minors and performing at their peak immediately and not having any growing pains or struggles.

 

You generally seem to want to operate like Dombrowski or the Cubs currently(not the cubs regime that got to this point, but the one that currently has talent on the roster)...as soon as a prospect gets value, quick trade them before it goes down for whatever you can get. That along with a million other lucky breaks last year got the cubs a world series, and this year might not even win them the division. And it will all come crumbling down quickly to a full scale rebuild in 3-5 years time...around the time and Bryant and Rizzo are either drastically overpaid or move on to another team. And as for Dombrowski, I'd bet that every GM with talented vets calls him first because that guy flings around top prospects like they grow on trees, look no further than the glorious Thornburg trade. Fortunately for both of those teams, they actually have a chance to keep their core players with their payroll levels. We will never be able to, so we have to constantly have talent in the system and successfully cycle that talent to the MLB level as the aging vets get traded for more talent in their last year or two of team control.

[bill hAll Star]

All of Phillips, Brinson, and Hader have their warts and I could see them busting or being average players much more than I can other highly regarded prospects.

 

Brinson and Phillips have done "all they can" in Colorado Springs as you've said, but their numbers are likely heavily inflated by facing pitchers that cannot strike batters out at such a high clip and hitting in literally the best environment that you can in baseball. To this point I agree that they may need more seasoning in the majors and they will get that beginning September 1 this coming year and every day beyond, but both of them strike out at a very high clip.

 

Hader's command issues also probably have to do with the fact that he can't throw an offspeed pitch. He has to pinpoint his fastball and slider and they get fouled off a lot. Until he can master that 3rd pitch, he may be a 100 pitch in 4 innings guy with tons of walks a lot of nights as a starter.

[Humans Need Water]

I fully acknowledge that Chatwood is a risk, but one that I think could pay dividends as an undervalued asset.

 

That said, his years away from Coors are generally pretty good. He had 2 bad years on the road and they were in 33 and 11 innings, respectively. Granted, his "good" years are only ones where he pitched 60-80 innings on the road, but I think it's a good risk to take.

 

Other than Darvish I'm not sure who we can pay big money to in the coming years unless Cueto or somebody like that opts out. We're probably stuck at the Lance Lynn/Alex Cobb tier of pitchers.

I agree that the FA class this off season sucks for SP. There's a couple very good one's but that's it. Darvish is in a class by himself followed by Lynn in the next class. Lot of Garza type pitchers out there that I don't see the point of signing. When Chatwood has been good in his spurts he's been really good but I think he's too inconsistent and based on where we are right now and factoring in guys like Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, Burnes I'd like to see all this play out heading into 2019. I think the rotation can be plenty good next year even with 3 of the guys being very young.

[Humans Need Water]

2014 - 14.5 A+ (only has info on 4 starts but it would most likely be closer to 15 or so based on AB, IP over other games compared to these 4)

2015 - 15.9 AA (HOU), 15.8 AA (Brewers)

2016 - 16.9 AA, 18 AAA

2017 - 17.5 AAA (first 10 starts....16.6 through first 8 starts)

*and he's still developing

 

As I posted earlier his walks per 9 have been getting worse for three years now. People just assume his command will get better. Why? Because Sale and Randy Johnson's did? What about the hundreds of pitchers who didn't figure it out? Are those not valid comparisons?

 

Look, I agree. Hader absolutely should be given a chance to be a major league starter. But we're not at the point either depth wise or team success wise where he should be just given the chance. He needs to earn it. We have 5-6 guys currently ahead of him and while their ceiling may nkt be as high at least they've earned the shot.

His BB9 rates are below

2014 - 3.3 in A+

2015 - 3 in AA (3.3/2.6 split between us and HOU)

2016 - 3 in AA

 

BB9 has been getting worse for 3yrs now....PLEASE provide the evidence suggesting that?

 

His BB9 spiked hard core when he went to CS, the worst environment for a pitcher who actually has crazy movement on his secondary pitches. Not factoring that in is absolutely absurd and proves that you only search for evidence that backs your line of thought without factoring in all variables. His BB9 this year I could care less about right now. He's never been a pure pen arm in his entire life and transitioning to it at the highest level in the world shouldn't be expected to be a seamless one, especially when he's coming from CS.

 

Yes, there are a ton of pitchers whose control doesn't improve. Except outside of the worst pitching environment in baseball he's clearly shown over the past 3yrs his BB9 rate isn't high.

 

He needs to earn his shot? He HAS by showing it in the minors. It's why he was rated the #1 LHP (rotation arm) coming into this year. According to you, since we're competitive now is not the time to just give him his shot. That makes zero sense. We're set up to be competitive for who knows how many years moving forward so using your logic we're just supposed to never give him a chance in the rotation? How do Ortiz and Burnes earn their chances in the rotation when there's already 5 guys in the rotation ahead of them? Don't need to answer that last question because it's rhetorical based on your logic.

[djoctagone]

I'm assuming that Guerra and Suter's final options will be maintained for 2018.

suter has only burned one of his three options in 2017.

 

guerra, as referenced earlier, could burn his final option in 2017 if he isn't recalled soon.

[paul253]

Phillips and Brinson were given sporadic at bats this year, not a real shot to prove anything. They've done literally everything they can at the AAA level. If you aren't willing to give them a shot, I can't imagine another scenario where you'd give anyone a shot

 

Can you please tell me where you are seeing me say they shouldn't have a shot? I cannot make my stance any clearer. Forgive me for not accepting the argument that since they have a high prospect rating and are doing well in CS that they'll automatically be good next year, especially when never was impressive in the least when given a shot this year. I never thought the idea of signing a veteran backup who can fill in would garner such a strong negative reaction.

 

Lewis Brinson should be the every day CF next year. That's not the first time I've said so. At the very least he should split time with Phillips. But for petes sake what's wrong with having a backup plan to avoid the same black hole we have there this season?

 

l. Pitching at AAA(especially our current situation) can only get you so far.

 

Yes and perhaps if he got as far as he could I'd be ok with inserting him to the rotation. But as I said I think he still has plenty to work on if he's going to be a solid starting pitcher. He doesn't have to be starting at the major league level to improve his changeup or command.

 

..as soon as a prospect gets value, quick trade them before it goes down for whatever you can get

 

Again can you tell me where exactly you are seeing me say we should trade every prospect as soon as they get value? This is getting a bit frustrating. Is this still about me being willing to trade some prospects to acquire Sonny Gray? Seriously dude move on.

 

. And it will all come crumbling down quickly to a full scale rebuild in 3-5 years time...around the time and Bryant and Rizzo are either drastically overpaid or move on to another team. And as for Dombrowski, I'd bet that every GM with talented vets calls him first because that guy flings around top prospects like they grow on trees, look no further than the glorious Thornburg trade. Fortunately for both of those teams, they actually have a chance to keep their core players with their payroll levels. We will never be able to, so we have to constantly have talent in the system and successfully cycle that talent to the MLB level as the aging vets get traded for more talent in their last year or two of team control

 

While I appreciate the lecture on the Red Sox and Cubs I'm not sure I see the relevance here. I absolutely agree on the need to recycle talent. That's why I was so big on trading guys like Gomez and Lucroy and Smith. I'm just not sure why you're bringing all this up right now.

[paul253]

. It's why he was rated the #1 LHP (rotation arm) coming into this year

 

Yeah and how did he do this year? Don't need to answer that because I'll answer it for you. Obviously this year doesn't matter because he was good part of last year right?

 

BB9 has been getting worse for 3yrs now....PLEASE provide the evidence suggesting that

 

I already did in the Hader thread so I'll copy and paste. His current BB/9 may not be what it was when I typed this: His BB/9 was 3.0 in 2015. It went up to 3.9 in 2016 and was 5.4 this season before being promoted, where it is currently 6.9

 

His BB9 spiked hard core when he went to CS, the worst environment for a pitcher who actually has crazy movement on his secondary pitches. Not factoring that in is absolutely absurd and proves that you only search for evidence that backs your line of thought without factoring in all variables. His BB9 this year I could care less about right now. He's never been a pure pen arm in his entire life and transitioning to it at the highest level in the world shouldn't be expected to be a seamless one, especially when he's coming from CS

 

You just have an excuse for everything don't you? Other pitchers have managed ok in CS. It IS possible to pitch alright down there. And other pitchers have transitioned to the bullpen without seeing a spike in their walk ratio as well.

 

. According to you, since we're competitive now is not the time to just give him his shot. That makes zero sense

 

It makes zero sense to say that since we have a shot to win we should put the pitchers who are actually performing best into the rotation instead of the guys who have the best prospect ranking? Ok.

 

How do Ortiz and Burnes earn their chances in the rotation when there's already 5 guys in the rotation ahead of them? Don't need to answer that last question because it's rhetorical based on your logic

 

And by your logic they already HAVE earned a shot in the rotation because they are highly rated prospects and are doing well in AA. And it matters not what they do in AAA because it's Colorado Springs and surely nobody can actually do well there so whatever happens is irrelevant.

 

My god do results not matter anymore? Are we so focused on ceiling and prospect rankings that how a player actually performs doesn't matter anymore? Hader has not been good as a starting pitcher for over a year. Yes it's CS but Taylor Jungmann seems to be doing ok down there and Woodruff wasn't so bad himself. If Hader shows that he has what it takes then by all means. But my lord, people are equating me saying he needs more work to suggesting he is a terrible pitcher and should be traded.

[pacopete4]

He can get that work as a starting pitcher next season. Some great pitchers need time and he's one of them. If we continue have him relieve we will never find that out. Next year he has to have an opportunity. If you're not going to do that then trade him and get players(s) for him.

[paul253]

So if he's not in the rotation next year then trade him? Seems a bit extreme. Unless you mean he can start games in AAA to see how he does, in which case I agree, though he might be more valuable as a big league reliever than a minor league starter.

[pacopete4]

So if he's not in the rotation next year then trade him? Seems a bit extreme. Unless you mean he can start games in AAA to see how he does, in which case I agree, though he might be more valuable as a big league reliever than a minor league starter.

 

No. Start him at a major league level. He has nothing else to prove that he can get the major league hitters out. Now let him prove it over 5-7 innings consistently. He's the best talent this organization has. Give him a opportunity to use that talent to the fullest. If he fails, then move him back to the pen or trade him. The walks is something we will just have to work around as he goes through growing pains. Either he'll learn and grow, or he won't. The clock has started on him now. He might he the #1 this organization has so badly needed. Ya just never know and I'm tired of people pretending to.

[KeithStone53151]

And on a side, CF is the biggest strength in our system and we'll head into ST with Broxton, Brinson, and Phillips vying for the starting role. Your desire to address CF in the offseason(which implies via trade of FA) shows that you have literally zero willingness to give any prospect a chance at the MLB level. Looking at what Brinson and Phillips are doing at AAA, how in the world can you not even consider them for a starting gig at the MLB level next season

 

Come on man. I said address our current weaknesses this year. Brewers centerfielders are hitting a cool .216 with a .299 OBP, which are both far and away the worst numbers of our position groups. And that includes your prized propsects Brinson and Phillips having shots. I'd say that's pretty weak spot, wouldn't you? Now does that mean I wouldn't give Brinson or Phillips a shot? Of course not. There's a reason I considered Brinson untouchable at the trade deadline. But "addressing our current weaknesses" doesn't necessarily mean benching our top prospects like you believe. It couldn't simply mean signing an adequate veteran backup who can step in when Brinson or Phillips needs a day off or when/if they are in an extended slump. Forgive me for having little faith in Keon Broxton. Accepting the reality of the situation is hardly me having "literally zero willingness to give any prospects a chance at the MLB level"

 

You don't think throwing him back into Colorado Springs would be bad for his development

.

 

No I don't. If he's down there working in becoming a better pitcher then absolutely it can help his development. For instance, he can work on throwing his changeup more often, refining his command and pitching to contact the extend his innings. The last thing you want is someone trying to figure out how to throw a third pitch while he's in the starting rotation in Milwaukee. If he needs to do it in Biloxi then maybe that's the route to go.

 

2014 - 14.5 A+ (only has info on 4 starts but it would most likely be closer to 15 or so based on AB, IP over other games compared to these 4)

2015 - 15.9 AA (HOU), 15.8 AA (Brewers)

2016 - 16.9 AA, 18 AAA

2017 - 17.5 AAA (first 10 starts....16.6 through first 8 starts)

*and he's still developing

 

As I posted earlier his walks per 9 have been getting worse for three years now. People just assume his command will get better. Why? Because Sale and Randy Johnson's did? What about the hundreds of pitchers who didn't figure it out? Are those not valid comparisons?

 

Look, I agree. Hader absolutely should be given a chance to be a major league starter. But we're not at the point either depth wise or team success wise where he should be just given the chance. He needs to earn it. We have 5-6 guys currently ahead of him and while their ceiling may nkt be as high at least they've earned the shot.

 

A veteran backup is one thing and not unreasonable, though I think having 2 of those 3 guys on the 25 man is ideal. There are enough rest days and braun injuries to get all 4 guys plenty of at bats. The other beauty of our situation is all 3 guys will head home for the season knowing that any of the 3 of them could earn the starting job next year. If that doesn't motivate you to grind like crazy in the off season, I don't know what does.

 

There's a reason certain guys like Lopez and Wilkerson were sent to AA and not AAA. And a reason whoever ends up in Colorado Springs is a team that got "stuck" there. It's not good for development in general. Both hitters and pitchers can develop bad habits there. I'm also not opposed to sending Hader to the minors if he doesn't look sharp in spring. I simply think he should have the inside track on a job, and get it unless he's really bad AND a veteran on a minor league contract does awesome.

 

I'm not exactly sure how Hader hasn't earned this shot. He wrecked AA, he did as well as can be expected in AAA, he's currently wrecking MLB level in an unfamiliar bullpen role. If you want to sign a high level free agent and have him and Woodruff fight it out for the 5th spot in the rotation, that's one thing and not unreasonable(though in reality it would be Woodruff/Hader/Davies fighting for 2 spots in that case). Giving the 5th spot to Garza, Chatwood, any pitcher that doesn't profile as a 3 or better is foolish and I can't imagine that happening. The best part about your "there's 5-6 guys ahead of him" comment, is there's a very real chance that if given the chance to start in the MLB rotation in 2018...that there would be literally nobody ahead of him in 2019. And either way, by that point we'd have a better idea if he deserves a rotation spot. We will have given him a fair shot. With someone like Garza taking his spot, maybe he comes up and makes spot starts and has to adjust on the fly to throwing with a different baseball in not colorado springs and to mlb hitters. You might still not know what you have in Hader or if he can adjust.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm assuming that Guerra and Suter's final options will be maintained for 2018.

suter has only burned one of his three options in 2017.

 

guerra, as referenced earlier, could burn his final option in 2017 if he isn't recalled soon.

 

I assume keeping Guerra in AAA until September callups burns his final option? If so, I can't imagine us not bringing him up before then.

[FVBrewerFan]

Innings factor in. Absolutely no way can Hader be a SP from wire to wire next season. Thats why I feel Wilkerson gets the nod, and maybe by June or so Hader can be added to the rotation.

[KeithStone53151]

Innings factor in. Absolutely no way can Hader be a SP from wire to wire next season. Thats why I feel Wilkerson gets the nod, and maybe by June or so Hader can be added to the rotation.

 

This is a fair point, he will be 24 next year so I don't think they'll overly baby his arm. Since he's thrown in the 120-130 inning range from 2014-2016, I could see them letting him go to 160 or so next season even if he doesn't match that this year. Obviously that's not a full season which would get him shut down at some point. If he opened with the team, we might be able to get into September before he reached that threshold. Otherwise you could start with someone else and have him go shorter stints in the minors and bring him up in June as noted.

[paul253]

Now let him prove it over 5-7 innings consistently

 

But he hasn't proven he can get AAA hitters out over 5-7 innings. I guess that's my issue with just handing him a spot in the 2018 rotation. I realize it's Colorado Springs but I think people are just too fast to dismiss his horrible statistics as a starting pitcher in AAA because it's Colorado Springs. If they want to let him start games in Spring Training to see if he can earn a spot in the rotation then by all means. Believe it or not I am rooting for him. I'm just a little less optimistic at this point than most becuase of how bad his command is at this point and his lack of a third pitch. I wouldn't hand him a spot in the rotation and I wouldn't make off-season moves based on the assumption that he'll be in the rotation (I.e. I wouldn't trade Garza to free a spot for Hader) but I would give him a chance in Spring Training.

 

he did as well as can be expected in AAA,

 

In 26 AAA starts he's got a 5.28 ERA with a WHIP of 1.47 and a BB/9 of 5. I think one can certainly expect better from a top prospect.

 

The best part about your "there's 5-6 guys ahead of him" comment, is there's a very real chance that if given the chance to start in the MLB rotation in 2018...that there would be literally nobody ahead of him in 2019

 

There is. But I guess I'm not as optimistic as you that he'll go from a guy who has a 5.54 ERA in AAA to the best pitcher in the organization in less than two years. I appreciate how excited you are about his ceiling but I think your expectations are a little unreasonable. Jimmy Nelson put up darn good minor league statistics and even he hasn't been a dominant major league starting pitcher. Josh Hader still has pretty serious flaws in his game. I certainly hope he works them out but I don't think it's unreasonable to make him show something as a major league starter (in spring training or maybe even a few September starts if we're out of it) before handing him a rotation spot ahead of other guys who have outperformed him. I was all for giving Tyler Thornburg a spot in the rotation a few years ago because he had previously shown success as a starter in AAA and then also came up to Milwaukee and made several good starts. If Hader does both of those, or even one of those, then perhaps I'll sing a different tune. But until then I'm sticking to my argument that he needs to earn a spot.

[pacopete4]

Corbin Burnes:

 

If he's a fit for the starting rotation next season and the earliest to bring him up is June (super 2?), would it be beneficial for the Brewers to limit his innings to begin the year and start him up lets say May 1st? This could keep his innings down and allow him to be a big piece for the Brewers beginning even next season.

[monty57]

I'd go with:

 

Nelson

Anderson

Davies

Woodruff

Hader (make him #5 so he can be skipped now and then to keep his innings down)

 

Trade Garza this offseason to a team looking for a relatively inexpensive veteran #4/5 starter.