2018 Starting Rotation

[FVBrewerFan]

With Jennings, Barnes, etc. looking good and Hoover, Williams, Ramirez and others a call away it sure seems like the BP is in great shape. I guarantee there's at least talk within the organization about moving Hader into the rotation. Would not surprise me in the least if they go that route if the rotation continues to struggle. Who knows, Hader and Burnes could both be in the rotation come May.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't think it's too early to be worried about Chacin because it was pretty silly at the time of the signing and a lot of people thought so.

 

That guy isn't going to be in the rotation in September unless the team is horrible, I feel confident saying that. It was a shot in the dark value signing that I don't see working. He's just not very good.

 

I would honestly rather see Guerra back in there than continue to watch Chacin pitch.

 

My guess personally is that Stearns' plan is to hope they are within striking distance at the break and see what's out there. He's gambling something better will be out there than what his options were in FA.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't think it's too early to be worried about Chacin because it was pretty silly at the time of the signing and a lot of people thought so.

 

That guy isn't going to be in the rotation in September unless the team is horrible, I feel confident saying that. It was a shot in the dark value signing that I don't see working. He's just not very good.

 

I would honestly rather see Guerra back in there than continue to watch Chacin pitch.

 

My guess personally is that Stearns' plan is to hope they are within striking distance at the break and see what's out there. He's gambling something better will be out there than what his options were in FA.

 

I have absolutely no doubt that there will be good starters available. The Brewers haven't given any indication that they would ever go the "rental" route by picking up a guy in the final year of a deal, though, so to grab a TOR-type with multiple years of control, they are going to have to break the bank prospect-wise (Huira, Burnes, Lutz ... those types). That wouldn't bother me, but I know it would cause a high level of stress in a lot of fans.

[pacopete4]

I'm not sure how anyone can say Chacin is not very good. His career numbers and numbers just a season ago say otherwise. Is he a TOR type guy? No. But that is not what he was signed for. He was signed to solidify the back end of a rotation that had its issues a season ago. I'd hardly call that a silly signing. He started off rocky last year as well but then just continued to toss up quality starts as the season progressed.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Look at his splits, that's why it was silly.

 

There is a reason his ERA was comparable to the bigger names in FA yet he signed in December for 2/15. I'm not sure I expect him to finish the year under 5. I think you could have plucked a lot of bums from anywhere to do what he's going to do for the Brewers. A guy who made his career in Petco and then you sign him to play in MP. It was silly.

[pacopete4]

Look at his splits, that's why it was silly.

 

There is a reason his ERA was comparable to the bigger names in FA yet he signed in December for 2/15. I'm not sure I expect him to finish the year under 5. I think you could have plucked a lot of bums from anywhere to do what he's going to do for the Brewers. A guy who made his career in Petco and then you sign him to play in MP. It was silly.

 

Has a career 4.23 ERA at Coors Field in Colorado in 378.2 innings pitched, the most innings he's pitched in any ballpark. I'll gladly take that on the back end of our rotation. Give it some time.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

If he does 4.23 for us then I'll stand corrected.

[pacopete4]

10.80 to 4.23... Can't wait!

[RollieTime]

If we are 4-2 with the rotation struggling as bad as it is, it will be fun to watch them once a few of them work out the early season kinks and get it turned around.

[coolhandluke121]

I think a lot of people have taken the home/road splits too far. Everybody knows PETCO was a big boost to his numbers. However, you can't dismiss his PETCO numbers completely, because even factoring in ballpark, his numbers at PETCO were better than what a bad pitcher would do.

 

He pitched 16 home games and 16 road games. If you dismiss his home games completely, as opposed to just adjusting his performance for ballpark factors, then you're only basing your assessment of his performance last year on 16 road games. You don't get to just throw out the home games completely. It's not at all unusual for a pitcher to have skewed home/road splits in a season for no particular reason other than the fact that it's not a lot of games and some random fluctuation is completely normal. His road BABIP was .353 and that is unlikely to happen again.

 

I think he's probably a decent 4/5 starter when it's all said and done. Mostly I'm just glad they went with a stopgap to keep that spot warm for Burnes and Peralta, among others. Not to mention eventually having Nelson back.

[82brewcrew82]

I don't know if Chacin is as truly bad pitcher or not but his splits last year should have been a red flag regardless. To suggest he just got off to a slow start last year isn't fair either. He got off to a slow start because he had more road starts and got hammered. He turned it around when he started getting more home starts. He was singed to be our third starter. That's what he was when he signed, that is what he is now whether one likes it or not. Is it early, sure. Can he turn it around, sure, why not.

[sveumrules]

There is plenty of risk with Chacin, that's why he was signable at 2/15.

 

If the Jhoulys we've seen in two starts represents his true talent level you can cut bait with minimal financial hindrance & see what one of the youngsters has.

 

If he pitches to his career norms you have a fine back end starter at a reasonable cost.

 

If DJ works some magic & Jhoulys is able to improve on his career norms as the season progresses you have a nice bargain.

 

Which of the three scenarios will unfold? Stay tuned, I guess.

[adambr2]

If the rotation is still a dumpster fire after April and the bullpen is still lights out, I'd like to see them try a radical approach. 4 man rotation on 3-4 days rest instead of 4-5, achieved by limiting starters to 80-90 pitches per start, or 4-5 innings. 9 man pen.

 

Rotation: Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff

Bullpen: Knebel, Hader, Barnes, Jennings, Jeffress, Suter, Drake/Logan, Williams, Hoover

 

I think Tampa is already doing something like this with 4 starters, although they're not doing 3-4 days rest, they're just doing a pen day on day 5. But things like this, while radical, aren't unheard of. I think it would work even better on an NL team with a versatile bench like us -- you could really limit your pitcher ABs and consistently use pinch hitters and double switches.

 

I realize this isn't going to happen. Just something I think would be interesting to try -- minimizing your weaknesses and maximizing your strengths.

[liveforoctober]

Yikes. We are 6 games in people. Stay calm?

[coolhandluke121]

If the rotation is still a dumpster fire after April and the bullpen is still lights out, I'd like to see them try a radical approach. 4 man rotation on 3-4 days rest instead of 4-5, achieved by limiting starters to 80-90 pitches per start, or 4-5 innings. 9 man pen.

 

Rotation: Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff

Bullpen: Knebel, Hader, Barnes, Jennings, Jeffress, Suter, Drake/Logan, Williams, Hoover

 

I think Tampa is already doing something like this with 4 starters, although they're not doing 3-4 days rest, they're just doing a pen day on day 5. But things like this, while radical, aren't unheard of. I think it would work even better on an NL team with a versatile bench like us -- you could really limit your pitcher ABs and consistently use pinch hitters and double switches.

 

I realize this isn't going to happen. Just something I think would be interesting to try -- minimizing your weaknesses and maximizing your strengths.

 

I've been hoping for that for a long time. I think there's a lot of dogma in current practices. A team with as many long relievers and short starters as the Brewers should definitely be trying this. I think as soon as teams start doing it, it's going to become less unusual pretty fast because it will prove effective in many circumstances.

[Fear The Chorizo]

With the need for a 5th starter on the verge of happening, Woodruff really needs to be decent in order to keep the wheels from falling off this roster as currently constructed. Otherwise, the Brewers will need to jettison Aguilar and replace him with another reliever to avoid burning out their pen as the rotation hopefully works through some growing pains.

 

I still wish the Brewers would've considered giving Hader a shot at the opening day rotation this year, with the plan of keeping his innings workload reasonable by either shifting him back to the pen when Nelson returned or skipping a few starts midseason. Sure, he's a huge reason why the bullpen currently looks so dynamic - but part of me thinks they are hampering the value of what could be a top of the rotation talent without really giving Hader a shot as a MLB starter. Even Andrew Miller got a few years starting in the bigs before moving into the dominant late inning relief role.

 

Also, is it weird that I'm looking forward to getting updates on Miley's progress in rehabbing his injury? That's how uneven the 1st 6 games have been on the starting pitcher front...

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I just want to reiterate (I made this point in the original Chacin thread) that, though PetCo has the reputation of being a pitcher's park, that is at least a little misleading. Tbe Fangraphs park factors series from mid last year actually called it "the most misunderstood" MLB stadium. Just a FWIW when considering Chacin.

 

I am not worried after two starts in April, one against his former and one against a pretty loaded lineup (the Cards are going to hit; we will we see boe the SP holds out and how Matheny'd they get WRT the BP). The velo dip is worth noting, but not a concern for me until end of April and probably more like mid- May.

 

My biggest concern is really just the Cubs and Cards are stronger throughout the rotation.

[adambr2]

If the rotation is still a dumpster fire after April and the bullpen is still lights out, I'd like to see them try a radical approach. 4 man rotation on 3-4 days rest instead of 4-5, achieved by limiting starters to 80-90 pitches per start, or 4-5 innings. 9 man pen.

 

Rotation: Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff

Bullpen: Knebel, Hader, Barnes, Jennings, Jeffress, Suter, Drake/Logan, Williams, Hoover

 

I think Tampa is already doing something like this with 4 starters, although they're not doing 3-4 days rest, they're just doing a pen day on day 5. But things like this, while radical, aren't unheard of. I think it would work even better on an NL team with a versatile bench like us -- you could really limit your pitcher ABs and consistently use pinch hitters and double switches.

 

I realize this isn't going to happen. Just something I think would be interesting to try -- minimizing your weaknesses and maximizing your strengths.

 

I've been hoping for that for a long time. I think there's a lot of dogma in current practices. A team with as many long relievers and short starters as the Brewers should definitely be trying this. I think as soon as teams start doing it, it's going to become less unusual pretty fast because it will prove effective in many circumstances.

 

Totally agree Luke. I think there's some stigma in trying new approaches because of the fact that "everyone does it this way for a reason". I would counter that by saying it isn't the way that it was done 30 years ago, which isn't the way it was done 30 years before that. The game and best practices are constantly changing and evolving because of various factors. I think in 10 years there might be a much larger blur between starter and reliever and guys who can go 2-3 strong innings followed by 2 days off or so might be a lot more common role.

 

It's not just about who you have, it's about putting them in the best position to succeed. Obviously a traditional approach of starter goes 6-7, relievers go 2-3, isn't the best way for our pitching staff.

[FVBrewerFan]

If the rotation is still a dumpster fire after April and the bullpen is still lights out, I'd like to see them try a radical approach. 4 man rotation on 3-4 days rest instead of 4-5, achieved by limiting starters to 80-90 pitches per start, or 4-5 innings. 9 man pen.

 

Rotation: Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff

Bullpen: Knebel, Hader, Barnes, Jennings, Jeffress, Suter, Drake/Logan, Williams, Hoover

 

I think Tampa is already doing something like this with 4 starters, although they're not doing 3-4 days rest, they're just doing a pen day on day 5. But things like this, while radical, aren't unheard of. I think it would work even better on an NL team with a versatile bench like us -- you could really limit your pitcher ABs and consistently use pinch hitters and double switches.

 

I realize this isn't going to happen. Just something I think would be interesting to try -- minimizing your weaknesses and maximizing your strengths.

 

I've been hoping for that for a long time. I think there's a lot of dogma in current practices. A team with as many long relievers and short starters as the Brewers should definitely be trying this. I think as soon as teams start doing it, it's going to become less unusual pretty fast because it will prove effective in many circumstances.

 

Totally agree Luke. I think there's some stigma in trying new approaches because of the fact that "everyone does it this way for a reason". I would counter that by saying it isn't the way that it was done 30 years ago, which isn't the way it was done 30 years before that. The game and best practices are constantly changing and evolving because of various factors. I think in 10 years there might be a much larger blur between starter and reliever and guys who can go 2-3 strong innings followed by 2 days off or so might be a lot more common role.

 

It's not just about who you have, it's about putting them in the best position to succeed. Obviously a traditional approach of starter goes 6-7, relievers go 2-3, isn't the best way for our pitching staff.

 

I have been against the piggy-back approach and have given the reasons why. But THIS approach I think could work. Not sure about all season, but certainly for a stretch.

[coolhandluke121]

 

I have been against the piggy-back approach and have given the reasons why. But THIS approach I think could work. Not sure about all season, but certainly for a stretch.

 

I'm not sure anyone has advocated a true piggy-back situation. I called it that for a few weeks before I realized that it was more rigid than I thought. What I want to see is starters coming out after their 2nd time through their order (and before their 2nd plate appearance, if possible) more often, and relievers going multiple innings more often. I believe starters are often a little overused and relievers are a little underused. By the same token, relievers are used in overly specialized situations and starters are a little under-specialized. For example, why start a guy like Suter against an RHB-dominant lineup if you can pitch him in long relief a day or two earlier against an LHB-dominant team. The rigidity of rotation turns creates some ridiculous situations.

 

I think you could mitigate the roster issues by having only 4 starters, because I think starters go often pitch on 3 days rest if they're only throwing ~70 pitches per start. A move like this is long overdue, especially for a team with the roster composition the Brewers have.

[adambr2]

Nick Ramirez would be a nice guy to have in a 9 man pen because you could reasonably use him as a PH as well.

 

I wonder if they could cheat a little bit with the roster and still get away with an 8 man pen by playing musical chairs with a couple pen spots and flip flopping guys like Suter, Williams, and Peralta between MLB and AAA every so often for 10 days when they need some rest.

[Boomer5]

Now it’s a 9 man pen? Lol well I guess with our rotation that is what it’s coming down to.

[adambr2]

Now it’s a 9 man pen? Lol well I guess with our rotation that is what it’s coming down to.

 

That was with a 4 man rotation, referring to the conversation near the bottom of the previous page.

[MrTPlush]

I know a lot of people think “No big deal we are paying Chacin back of the rotation money and that’s what we expect him to perform to”, but I don’t think that’s what Stearns expected out of him when signing him. From the sounds of it they saw positive tweaks they could do and make him better than last year. Essentially viewing him as a mid rotation arm.

 

Now it’s early and I’m not jumping to conclusions, but I think in the end we should judge that signing by what they expected him to be not by the salary. Because if he doesn’t pitch like a mid rotation guy our rotation is going to be complete trash and that is a big failed addition by Stearns when our rotation was already weak.

[brewmann04]

This rotation is bad this I thought was going to be a weak link. Suter is not a legit starter,color me not impressed with Chacin either so far. I hope things get rectified quickly but it would not suprise me you might see a early rotation change