2018 Starting Rotation

[3and2Fastball]

Hader as good as Chris Sale or Randy Johnson?

 

I'm not seeing that.

 

First of all, Johnson threw over 100 mph and was a 1st Ballot HOF, so let's just throw him out of the conversation, please. I mean c'mon.

 

Sale has a nasty changeup. He consistently throws the fastball, changeup and slider for strikes. He doesn't lose much velocity over the course of multiple innings. Hader is a two pitch pitcher. His fastball gets into the low 90's after 35 pitches or so. And while Sale has purposefully lowered his fastball velocity in recent years to get even more movement, Hader's fastball is much more straight as a string.

 

I see Hader as a star relief ace, Ander Miller type. And a very average 4.25+ ERA starter who can't go more than 5 innings.

 

If the Brewers do try to make Hader a starter, I sincerely hope I'm wrong!!!!

[monty57]

I'm not going to disagree with your stance. I see the validity in it... but do you see him being a quality starter when the book on him is quickly becoming, take your cracks at his FB (and even sitting dead red good luck) because everything else doesn't hit the zone. If its not the heater... which many do their best to pepper... there's a lot of guys already daring him to throw off speed for a strike. He's not hurting them for letting those go. It was pretty constant. Fb ball, fb foul, slider ball, fb foul, slider ball, fb foul, fb K. Lot's of high pitch outs on many nights.

 

As I've mentioned, if the Brewers feel that Hader is not destined to be a starter, then they should keep him in the pen until they trade him down the road or let him walk as a free agent.

 

I just don't like the thought of keeping him in the pen for a few seasons and then converting him to a starter, as I think that limits the total value he'll bring to the Brewers over his time here. If the Brewers think he will eventually be a starter, they should convert him now.

 

We only have him for six years, so we have to do what's best for the Brewers over those six years, not what's best for the 2018 team, and certainly not what's best for the big market team who will get him in free agency when we can no longer afford him.

[FVBrewerFan]

By now we know that Hader is absolutely not starting and they are not expecting Nelson back anytime soon.

 

We don't know either. There is still one starting position completely up in the air. Nothing they have done so far is preventing Hader from starting the season in the rotation, or adding Nelson whether that be in May or August.

[pacopete4]

If the Brewers don't see Hader as a starter than I hope we trade him either now or during this season. And then I hope whatever team is lucky enough to have him stuffs him in the rotation and shoves it in the Brewers faces each and every year that he is a stud starting pitcher. Meanwhile, the Brewers will continue to look for TOR type pitchers.

 

Yes, this is speaking out of spite but I truly believe in Hader.

[monty57]

Hader as good as Chris Sale or Randy Johnson?

 

I'm not seeing that.

 

First of all, Johnson threw over 100 mph and was a 1st Ballot HOF, so let's just throw him out of the conversation, please. I mean c'mon.

 

Sale has a nasty changeup. He consistently throws the fastball, changeup and slider for strikes. He doesn't lose much velocity over the course of multiple innings. Hader is a two pitch pitcher. His fastball gets into the low 90's after 35 pitches or so. And while Sale has purposefully lowered his fastball velocity in recent years to get even more movement, Hader's fastball is much more straight as a string.

 

I see Hader as a star relief ace, Ander Miller type. And a very average 4.25+ ERA starter who can't go more than 5 innings.

 

If the Brewers do try to make Hader a starter, I sincerely hope I'm wrong!!!!

 

I agree that it's unfair to ever compare anyone to a Hall of Famer. There just aren't many other guys to compare Hader to, because I have never seen anyone make guys like Bryce Harper and Joey Votto look foolish.

 

So, Hader is 23 and had 12.84 K/9 and 4.15 BB/9 in his first season in the majors as a 23 year old.

 

Johnson made it to the Expos in 1988 (born 9/10/63, so he was around 25 when he was called up), when he threw 26 innings. The Expos traded him to the Mariners during his rookie season, a year in which he struck out 7.26/9, while walking 5.38/9. He didn't get his K/9 above 10 until 1991 when he was 27/28 years old, and that year he walked 6.79/9. It wasn't until 1993 that he finally learned to keep his walks down. Even while walking guys like crazy, he had value as a starter, accumulating 10 WAR in those 4+ seasons, and averaging around 6 innings per start. Once he got some control, he became a dominant force who somehow was able to keep it up for a looong career.

 

I would guess that some here would have been lobbying for the 25 year old who couldn't throw strikes and only had two pitches to be moved to the bullpen, or just kept in the minors until he learned how to throw strikes. Heck, the Expos traded him away. Fortunately, the Mariners saw enough from a guy who had definite control issues and who threw his fastball/slider combo around 95% of the time to keep him in the rotation. Eventually the control came around and his tertiary pitches got good enough for him to throw them around 10-15% of the time and he became the Randy Johnson everyone knows.

 

Comparing anyone to Randy Johnson is unfair, but we have a guy who can do things to hitters that other pitchers just cannot do. We need to try to maximize the value of this guy while we have him because, as others have said, he is the best option we've had for a homegrown #1 starter since Ben Sheets.

 

By the way, even with the walks, Johnson was often able to keep his WHIP in the low 1's because he was so hard to hit, but he never posted a 0.99 WHIP like Hader had in his age 23 season... but Hader will never be a starter because of his control issues.

[KeithStone53151]

Hader as good as Chris Sale or Randy Johnson?

 

I'm not seeing that.

 

First of all, Johnson threw over 100 mph and was a 1st Ballot HOF, so let's just throw him out of the conversation, please. I mean c'mon.

 

Sale has a nasty changeup. He consistently throws the fastball, changeup and slider for strikes. He doesn't lose much velocity over the course of multiple innings. Hader is a two pitch pitcher. His fastball gets into the low 90's after 35 pitches or so. And while Sale has purposefully lowered his fastball velocity in recent years to get even more movement, Hader's fastball is much more straight as a string.

 

I see Hader as a star relief ace, Ander Miller type. And a very average 4.25+ ERA starter who can't go more than 5 innings.

 

If the Brewers do try to make Hader a starter, I sincerely hope I'm wrong!!!!

 

I agree that it's unfair to ever compare anyone to a Hall of Famer. There just aren't many other guys to compare Hader to, because I have never seen anyone make guys like Bryce Harper and Joey Votto look foolish.

 

So, Hader is 23 and had 12.84 K/9 and 4.15 BB/9 in his first season in the majors as a 23 year old.

 

Johnson made it to the Expos in 1988 (born 9/10/63, so he was around 25 when he was called up), when he threw 26 innings. The Expos traded him to the Mariners during his rookie season, a year in which he struck out 7.26/9, while walking 5.38/9. He didn't get his K/9 above 10 until 1991 when he was 27/28 years old, and that year he walked 6.79/9. It wasn't until 1993 that he finally learned to keep his walks down. Even while walking guys like crazy, he had value as a starter, accumulating 10 WAR in those 4+ seasons, and averaging around 6 innings per start. Once he got some control, he became a dominant force who somehow was able to keep it up for a looong career.

 

I would guess that some here would have been lobbying for the 25 year old who couldn't throw strikes and only had two pitches to be moved to the bullpen, or just kept in the minors until he learned how to throw strikes. Heck, the Expos traded him away. Fortunately, the Mariners saw enough from a guy who had definite control issues and who threw his fastball/slider combo around 95% of the time to keep him in the rotation. Eventually the control came around and his tertiary pitches got good enough for him to throw them around 10-15% of the time and he became the Randy Johnson everyone knows.

 

Comparing anyone to Randy Johnson is unfair, but we have a guy who can do things to hitters that other pitchers just cannot do. We need to try to maximize the value of this guy while we have him because, as others have said, he is the best option we've had for a homegrown #1 starter since Ben Sheets.

 

By the way, even with the walks, Johnson was often able to keep his WHIP in the low 1's because he was so hard to hit, but he never posted a 0.99 WHIP like Hader had in his age 23 season... but Hader will never be a starter because of his control issues.

 

You make many good points. So many of you think "this is what he is" with Hader...that he's a finished product at age 23 and won't improve/adjust. Sale has had years and years at the mlb level to work on and hone his changeup. Hader's has been improving his entire time in the majors. I can again point back at the stat of how many top tier SP started their career relying heavily on the fastball, throwing it 65-70% of the time...which is not far off from how often Hader uses his.

 

And to those saying using Hader 3 times a week is more valuable than every 5 days as a starter clearly have no idea what they are talking about. Good bullpen pitchers generally throw 80 innings in a season...80 is a lot. Starters throw 200. Would you rather have 200 good innings or 80 good innings? In this case, Hader would be limited to 160ish most likely...160 > 80 last I checked.

[Boomer5]

By now we know that Hader is absolutely not starting and they are not expecting Nelson back anytime soon.

 

We don't know either. There is still one starting position completely up in the air. Nothing they have done so far is preventing Hader from starting the season in the rotation, or adding Nelson whether that be in May or August.

 

They have signed two starters and zero relievers. Hader isn't starting and that's that.

 

Even if you believe Gallardo was signed as a reliever, he sure wasn't signed to be a high leverage late inning reliever which is what Hader is and that doesn't even factor in the huge loss of Swarzak to the late inning mix. Heck we haven't even replaced Hughes.

 

It's still two months before P&C report but it's very clear that Hader is being positioned as a key member of the bullpen, and rightly so. This is not a slight to him or some sort of demotion. It's how teams are built in 2018 where high leverage innings > volume of innings.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

By now we know that Hader is absolutely not starting and they are not expecting Nelson back anytime soon.

 

We don't know either. There is still one starting position completely up in the air. Nothing they have done so far is preventing Hader from starting the season in the rotation, or adding Nelson whether that be in May or August.

 

They have signed two starters and zero relievers. Hader isn't starting and that's that.

 

Even if you believe Gallardo was signed as a reliever, he sure wasn't signed to be a high leverage late inning reliever which is what Hader is and that doesn't even factor in the huge loss of Swarzak to the late inning mix. Heck we haven't even replaced Hughes.

 

It's still two months before P&C report but it's very clear that Hader is being positioned as a key member of the bullpen, and rightly so. This is not a slight to him or some sort of demotion. It's how teams are built in 2018 where high leverage innings > volume of innings.

 

You are making your final determination on Hader's future in one line, while in the next noting that there's still two months before pitchers and catchers report. That's a little contradictory.

 

While I'd like to see Hader be given a shot in the rotation, I'm just happy that we have him and that he'll be slated for important innings next year. There are still plenty of solid back-end bullpen arms available as well. I expect the team to jump on at least one, if not two of them.

[3and2Fastball]

Monty - you make a lot of great points. Good food for thought that I will think about....

[TJseven7]

Hader as good as Chris Sale or Randy Johnson?

 

I'm not seeing that.

 

First of all, Johnson threw over 100 mph and was a 1st Ballot HOF, so let's just throw him out of the conversation, please. I mean c'mon.

 

Sale has a nasty changeup. He consistently throws the fastball, changeup and slider for strikes. He doesn't lose much velocity over the course of multiple innings. Hader is a two pitch pitcher. His fastball gets into the low 90's after 35 pitches or so. And while Sale has purposefully lowered his fastball velocity in recent years to get even more movement, Hader's fastball is much more straight as a string.

 

I see Hader as a star relief ace, Ander Miller type. And a very average 4.25+ ERA starter who can't go more than 5 innings.

 

If the Brewers do try to make Hader a starter, I sincerely hope I'm wrong!!!!

 

I agree that it's unfair to ever compare anyone to a Hall of Famer. There just aren't many other guys to compare Hader to, because I have never seen anyone make guys like Bryce Harper and Joey Votto look foolish.

 

So, Hader is 23 and had 12.84 K/9 and 4.15 BB/9 in his first season in the majors as a 23 year old.

 

Johnson made it to the Expos in 1988 (born 9/10/63, so he was around 25 when he was called up), when he threw 26 innings. The Expos traded him to the Mariners during his rookie season, a year in which he struck out 7.26/9, while walking 5.38/9. He didn't get his K/9 above 10 until 1991 when he was 27/28 years old, and that year he walked 6.79/9. It wasn't until 1993 that he finally learned to keep his walks down. Even while walking guys like crazy, he had value as a starter, accumulating 10 WAR in those 4+ seasons, and averaging around 6 innings per start. Once he got some control, he became a dominant force who somehow was able to keep it up for a looong career.

 

I would guess that some here would have been lobbying for the 25 year old who couldn't throw strikes and only had two pitches to be moved to the bullpen, or just kept in the minors until he learned how to throw strikes. Heck, the Expos traded him away. Fortunately, the Mariners saw enough from a guy who had definite control issues and who threw his fastball/slider combo around 95% of the time to keep him in the rotation. Eventually the control came around and his tertiary pitches got good enough for him to throw them around 10-15% of the time and he became the Randy Johnson everyone knows.

 

Comparing anyone to Randy Johnson is unfair, but we have a guy who can do things to hitters that other pitchers just cannot do. We need to try to maximize the value of this guy while we have him because, as others have said, he is the best option we've had for a homegrown #1 starter since Ben Sheets.

 

By the way, even with the walks, Johnson was often able to keep his WHIP in the low 1's because he was so hard to hit, but he never posted a 0.99 WHIP like Hader had in his age 23 season... but Hader will never be a starter because of his control issues.

 

You make many good points. So many of you think "this is what he is" with Hader...that he's a finished product at age 23 and won't improve/adjust. Sale has had years and years at the mlb level to work on and hone his changeup. Hader's has been improving his entire time in the majors. I can again point back at the stat of how many top tier SP started their career relying heavily on the fastball, throwing it 65-70% of the time...which is not far off from how often Hader uses his.

 

And to those saying using Hader 3 times a week is more valuable than every 5 days as a starter clearly have no idea what they are talking about. Good bullpen pitchers generally throw 80 innings in a season...80 is a lot. Starters throw 200. Would you rather have 200 good innings or 80 good innings? In this case, Hader would be limited to 160ish most likely...160 > 80 last I checked.

 

The problem though is that in proving your point you disprove your point. Earlier it was said you do whats best for MKE not the big market team who buys him next. Ok so 4 years Randy HOF Johnson was dominant but struggled. He caught fire and poof FA. Miller was tried as a starter for years. Caught fire at 27 in the pen. He was a 3.1 war at 32. His career war is 8.7. Thats 6 pretty amazing years in the pen offset by some negatives leading up to 27. So what's best for MKE. A shot at a 2-3 year window where he could become an ace. Or every controlled year bringing in close to 3 war?

 

Do we capitalize off of his talents now or do we groom him for something bigger in the hopes it'll 1... happen and 2... happen while he's still here.

 

1st go round... 47 ip... on pace for 3 war in 80 ip. Is it worth the risk that you could mess that up? Miller was a starter until 27. His best war was +.1. His last 4 years he piled up the majority of his value.

 

We talk about Hader being a poor mans miller but the fact is that hader accomplished more baseball value in his first 47 ip than miller did before the age of 29.

[FVBrewerFan]

It's how teams are built in 2018 where high leverage innings > volume of innings.

 

Couple points here. Since when is the 8th inning more high leverage than the first 3 innings? 8th inning is only high leverage it certain situations, the first 3 innings are always high leverage. In fact, there are plenty of times the "set-up man" is used just to get some work, or in 2-3 run leads. Still valuable, of course, but let's not pretend every appearance is high leverage.

 

Secondly, a really good starting pitcher is more valuable than a late inning reliever for the obvious reason. There are fewer really good SP than really good relief pitchers. Look at just the very recent past, Knebel, Hader, Swarzak, Thornburg, Jeffress, and Smith. I mean, that's only the last two seasons!

 

Hey, I have no dog in this fight. I would like to see Hader start, but if they keep him in pen because they think that's best...I'm fine with that. Doesn't mean he can't get his chance to start next season or whenever.

 

The question at hand is the uncertainty how he would do as a SP. That's a fair debate, and many have been having it. But it's not about whether a great late inning guy is more valuable than a great SP.

[KeithStone53151]

 

You make many good points. So many of you think "this is what he is" with Hader...that he's a finished product at age 23 and won't improve/adjust. Sale has had years and years at the mlb level to work on and hone his changeup. Hader's has been improving his entire time in the majors. I can again point back at the stat of how many top tier SP started their career relying heavily on the fastball, throwing it 65-70% of the time...which is not far off from how often Hader uses his.

 

And to those saying using Hader 3 times a week is more valuable than every 5 days as a starter clearly have no idea what they are talking about. Good bullpen pitchers generally throw 80 innings in a season...80 is a lot. Starters throw 200. Would you rather have 200 good innings or 80 good innings? In this case, Hader would be limited to 160ish most likely...160 > 80 last I checked.

 

The problem though is that in proving your point you disprove your point. Earlier it was said you do whats best for MKE not the big market team who buys him next. Ok so 4 years Randy HOF Johnson was dominant but struggled. He caught fire and poof FA. Miller was tried as a starter for years. Caught fire at 27 in the pen. He was a 3.1 war at 32. His career war is 8.7. Thats 6 pretty amazing years in the pen offset by some negatives leading up to 27. So what's best for MKE. A shot at a 2-3 year window where he could become an ace. Or every controlled year bringing in close to 3 war?

 

Do we capitalize off of his talents now or do we groom him for something bigger in the hopes it'll 1... happen and 2... happen while he's still here.

 

1st go round... 47 ip... on pace for 3 war in 80 ip. Is it worth the risk that you could mess that up? Miller was a starter until 27. His best war was +.1. His last 4 years he piled up the majority of his value.

 

We talk about Hader being a poor mans miller but the fact is that hader accomplished more baseball value in his first 47 ip than miller did before the age of 29.

 

So your argument is you'd rather take what you see as a virtually guaranteed dominant late inning reliever to pair with Knebel versus gamble on a potential stud starting pitcher that may take some time to develop? First off, what do you mean 2-3 year window? If Hader can get to 150-160 innings this year, he'll be virtually unrestricted next year. Maybe skip a start or 2 if we are looking at playoffs. He's under team control for at least 5 more years. If he's an absolute superstar SP in his late 20s, imagine what we can get for his last 1-2 years of team control in prospect value. Heck we could wait to the deadline of his last year and get a haul for half a year of Hader. And that's not including us potentially offering an extension to buy out a year or two of free agency. It's not a question, if you think Hader has a reasonable shot to be a dominant SP...that's the route you go. No brainer. No reliever is as valuable as an ace starting pitcher.

[KeithStone53151]

It's how teams are built in 2018 where high leverage innings > volume of innings.

 

Couple points here. Since when is the 8th inning more high leverage than the first 3 innings? 8th inning is only high leverage it certain situations, the first 3 innings are always high leverage. In fact, there are plenty of times the "set-up man" is used just to get some work, or in 2-3 run leads. Still valuable, of course, but let's not pretend every appearance is high leverage.

 

Secondly, a really good starting pitcher is more valuable than a late inning reliever for the obvious reason. There are fewer really good SP than really good relief pitchers. Look at just the very recent past, Knebel, Hader, Swarzak, Thornburg, Jeffress, and Smith. I mean, that's only the last two seasons!

 

Hey, I have no dog in this fight. I would like to see Hader start, but if they keep him in pen because they think that's best...I'm fine with that. Doesn't mean he can't get his chance to start next season or whenever.

 

The question at hand is the uncertainty how he would do as a SP. That's a fair debate, and many have been having it. But it's not about whether a great late inning guy is more valuable than a great SP.

 

I tend to agree with most of this. I'm of the camp that Hader can and should get a chance to start, and I think he'll succeed. But there's room for debate there for sure. But great SP versus great RP isn't a debate.

[superfly]

And to those saying using Hader 3 times a week is more valuable than every 5 days as a starter clearly have no idea what they are talking about. Good bullpen pitchers generally throw 80 innings in a season...80 is a lot. Starters throw 200. Would you rather have 200 good innings or 80 good innings? In this case, Hader would be limited to 160ish most likely...160 > 80 last I checked.

 

No idea? None of you seem to want to pay a bullpen guy what MARKET VALUE dictates, despite the huge need we have. You also don't want to pay an ace MARKET VALUE for their services. Also you don't want to trade any prospects because heaven forbid Lewis Brinson and Corbin Burnes are the second coming of Jesus Christ. Thus we have two options: 1) throw guys out there that have never seen a major league batter and pray for the best, 2) sign some decent mid rotation starters cheap like Chacin and keep Hader in the bullpen where he has been torching teams in high leverage situations. Can't have it both ways.

 

Unless of course you'd rather we just resign Jhan Marinez, Neftali Feliz, Oliver Drake types and watch them throw leads away like they're going out of style.

 

I say let it happen organically with Hader with regards to starting. But to start 2018 he's in the pen locking it down with Knebel.

[FVBrewerFan]

And to those saying using Hader 3 times a week is more valuable than every 5 days as a starter clearly have no idea what they are talking about. Good bullpen pitchers generally throw 80 innings in a season...80 is a lot. Starters throw 200. Would you rather have 200 good innings or 80 good innings? In this case, Hader would be limited to 160ish most likely...160 > 80 last I checked.

 

No idea? None of you seem to want to pay a bullpen guy what MARKET VALUE dictates, despite the huge need we have. You also don't want to pay an ace MARKET VALUE for their services. Also you don't want to trade any prospects because heaven forbid Lewis Brinson and Corbin Burnes are the second coming of Jesus Christ. Thus we have two options: 1) throw guys out there that have never seen a major league batter and pray for the best, 2) sign some decent mid rotation starters cheap like Chacin and keep Hader in the bullpen where he has been torching teams in high leverage situations. Can't have it both ways.

 

Unless of course you'd rather we just resign Jhan Marinez, Neftali Feliz, Oliver Drake types and watch them throw leads away like they're going out of style.

 

I say let it happen organically with Hader with regards to starting. But to start 2018 he's in the pen locking it down with Knebel.

 

Knebel, Jeffress, and Williams have seen MLB batters. And who knows who else will be signed or traded for in the next two months. There's no reason to pay MARKET VALUE when you can get the same player for less than MARKET VALUE either internally or via FA/trade.

 

I can assure you Mark A and Stearns can't wait to spend a lot more money. It's just not quite time yet. You don't throw out the big bucks until you know exactly where to spend it.

[KeithStone53151]

And to those saying using Hader 3 times a week is more valuable than every 5 days as a starter clearly have no idea what they are talking about. Good bullpen pitchers generally throw 80 innings in a season...80 is a lot. Starters throw 200. Would you rather have 200 good innings or 80 good innings? In this case, Hader would be limited to 160ish most likely...160 > 80 last I checked.

 

No idea? None of you seem to want to pay a bullpen guy what MARKET VALUE dictates, despite the huge need we have. You also don't want to pay an ace MARKET VALUE for their services. Also you don't want to trade any prospects because heaven forbid Lewis Brinson and Corbin Burnes are the second coming of Jesus Christ. Thus we have two options: 1) throw guys out there that have never seen a major league batter and pray for the best, 2) sign some decent mid rotation starters cheap like Chacin and keep Hader in the bullpen where he has been torching teams in high leverage situations. Can't have it both ways.

 

Unless of course you'd rather we just resign Jhan Marinez, Neftali Feliz, Oliver Drake types and watch them throw leads away like they're going out of style.

 

I say let it happen organically with Hader with regards to starting. But to start 2018 he's in the pen locking it down with Knebel.

 

That rant had absolutely nothing to do with debating whether a RP is of greater value than SP. Look no further than what the free market dictates for high end relief vs high end SP. Compare Chapman's contract to what Kershaw is making. Chapman is getting about half of what Kershaw is getting, and that's before Kershaw hits free agency and increases his pay...

[TJseven7]

 

You make many good points. So many of you think "this is what he is" with Hader...that he's a finished product at age 23 and won't improve/adjust. Sale has had years and years at the mlb level to work on and hone his changeup. Hader's has been improving his entire time in the majors. I can again point back at the stat of how many top tier SP started their career relying heavily on the fastball, throwing it 65-70% of the time...which is not far off from how often Hader uses his.

 

And to those saying using Hader 3 times a week is more valuable than every 5 days as a starter clearly have no idea what they are talking about. Good bullpen pitchers generally throw 80 innings in a season...80 is a lot. Starters throw 200. Would you rather have 200 good innings or 80 good innings? In this case, Hader would be limited to 160ish most likely...160 > 80 last I checked.

 

The problem though is that in proving your point you disprove your point. Earlier it was said you do whats best for MKE not the big market team who buys him next. Ok so 4 years Randy HOF Johnson was dominant but struggled. He caught fire and poof FA. Miller was tried as a starter for years. Caught fire at 27 in the pen. He was a 3.1 war at 32. His career war is 8.7. Thats 6 pretty amazing years in the pen offset by some negatives leading up to 27. So what's best for MKE. A shot at a 2-3 year window where he could become an ace. Or every controlled year bringing in close to 3 war?

 

Do we capitalize off of his talents now or do we groom him for something bigger in the hopes it'll 1... happen and 2... happen while he's still here.

 

1st go round... 47 ip... on pace for 3 war in 80 ip. Is it worth the risk that you could mess that up? Miller was a starter until 27. His best war was +.1. His last 4 years he piled up the majority of his value.

 

We talk about Hader being a poor mans miller but the fact is that hader accomplished more baseball value in his first 47 ip than miller did before the age of 29.

 

So your argument is you'd rather take what you see as a virtually guaranteed dominant late inning reliever to pair with Knebel versus gamble on a potential stud starting pitcher that may take some time to develop? First off, what do you mean 2-3 year window? If Hader can get to 150-160 innings this year, he'll be virtually unrestricted next year. Maybe skip a start or 2 if we are looking at playoffs. He's under team control for at least 5 more years. If he's an absolute superstar SP in his late 20s, imagine what we can get for his last 1-2 years of team control in prospect value. Heck we could wait to the deadline of his last year and get a haul for half a year of Hader. And that's not including us potentially offering an extension to buy out a year or two of free agency. It's not a question, if you think Hader has a reasonable shot to be a dominant SP...that's the route you go. No brainer. No reliever is as valuable as an ace starting pitcher.

 

We control him 6 years. In the Randy Johnson example it took 4 years to get there. 2 years of controlled window. Even if theres a chance he becomes an ace its not going to be as simple as give him 150 innings give him 200 ip tadda ace. He's not Kershaw. He has a lot to develop and alter.

 

If he's an ace we can buy out extra years... not in this era.

[djoctagone]

josh hader has been confirmed to start the 2018 season as part of the bullpen. how do you project the brewers' starting rotation to shake out?

[SRB]

Just bumped a different (less appropriate) thread with the same question.

 

Is it the following?

 

RHP Anderson

RHP Davies

RHP Chacin

LHP Suter

RHP Woodruff

 

With RHP Gallardo as a potential long relief/sixth starter option?

 

Or do they think Guerra has something left in the tank.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Just bumped a different (less appropriate) thread with the same question.

 

Is it the following?

 

RHP Anderson

RHP Davies

RHP Chacin

LHP Suter

RHP Woodruff

 

With RHP Gallardo as a potential long relief/sixth starter option?

 

Or do they think Guerra has something left in the tank.

 

Wilkerson is still kicking around too. I would say what you have above is probably what it would be if the season started tomorrow. But I still believe the team will either trade from their OF depth for a starting pitcher, or sign one of the Arrieta/Cobb/Lynn trio. They didn't stick all this money and equity into the outfield and lineup without having a plan to solidify the starting rotation.

[TJseven7]

Pitching has a lot of options still on the table, even if I'm going to chuck the notion of gallardo in the trash.

 

Suter is in the rotation today. Gallardo Guerra competing for long man.

Wilkerson is the in case of emergency break open glass stash.

Nelson comes back at some point this year. Burnes is in CS at some point this year ready for a call up.

 

They could do something as simple as add Corbin (or corbin like rental) and we cover the small window (hopefully small) where we are under manned.

 

So many directions to go in with Santana. Corbin level add would leave money for Neil Walker or Harrison. We could go after arrieta or cobb and stick with the 2b platoon.

 

Basically saying, it's impossible to know but its 1 move, that we can easily make, away from being set.

[djoctagone]

six games in, and the rotation is certainly a glaring weakness. the starters need to get to six to seven innings (at least) in all four games vs. the cubs. there's no way that this bullpen can shoulder the workload.

[pacopete4]

Per TomH- @Haudricourt

 

#Brewers RHP Jhoulys Chacin now 0-6 with 5.89 ERA in seven career starts against St. Louis. And who is his next start against? The Cardinals next Monday at Busch Stadium.

 

Gallardo part 2

[adambr2]

They only need to keep Burnes down another week or so for the extra service year. I know they probably would like to wait until July or so, but they may not be able to afford to.

[MillerParkSouth]

It's way too early to worry about anyone (although it would be nice if they all haven't been so horrible!)