2018 Starting Rotation

[CheeseheadInQC]

A piggyback situation wouldn't surprise me only because they showed last year down the stretch how creative they were willing to get with the number of bullpen games. They've got a trio of righties (Gallardo, Wilkerson, Jungmann) that they could match up with either Hader (keep the innings down) or Suter (if they still don't want him facing guys the third time through the lineup).

[KeithStone53151]

Hader isn't starting. The off-season moves say so. They wouldn't have let Swarzak go and they wouldn't have signed a guy that really can only start.

 

Totally agree. They'd be nuts to mess with him now.

 

What would be nuts is to take the first potential TOR starter we've had come through the system since Ben Sheets and relegate him to bullpen duty...

[FVBrewerFan]

What would be nuts is to take the first potential TOR starter we've had come through the system since Ben Sheets and relegate him to bullpen duty...

 

If they decide to keep Hader in the pen for 2018, that doesn't mean he can't be moved to the rotation in 2019 right? Hey, I've been in the "Hader as a starter" camp too, but we don't know what the Brewers know. Maybe they want to keep the innings off his arm for another year. Maybe they want him to really focus on his secondary pitches. Who knows, but I'm not going to freak out if he's not a starter this year. He has a long career ahead of him, and they can make that transition any time.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The biggest question to me on Hader starting is the number of innings he would be able to log this year. Because of that, I could see the brewers starting him off in the pen, but giving him plenty of opportunities for multiple inning appearances during the 1st half of the year, ramping him up to the point where he could slide into the rotation at some point later in the year.

 

You've got to give him every opportunity to start in order to find out if you have either a poor man's Sale or a poor man's Miller. Either would be fantastic, but Hader starting is more valuable to the organization.

[adambr2]

Why does he need to be a poor man's version of either? He is already comparable to Miller in relief IMO.

 

Sale is more of a stretch, but you never know.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Hader's done it for what, 4 months at the MLB level? Of that time, he really only started getting put in high leverage situations for about 2 months-worth of games. I said poor man's because there isn't a track record there - yet. I doubt he falls flat on his face, but let's see what his production is after teams have faced him 4-5 times.

[monty57]

What would be nuts is to take the first potential TOR starter we've had come through the system since Ben Sheets and relegate him to bullpen duty...

 

If they decide to keep Hader in the pen for 2018, that doesn't mean he can't be moved to the rotation in 2019 right? Hey, I've been in the "Hader as a starter" camp too, but we don't know what the Brewers know. Maybe they want to keep the innings off his arm for another year. Maybe they want him to really focus on his secondary pitches. Who knows, but I'm not going to freak out if he's not a starter this year. He has a long career ahead of him, and they can make that transition any time.

 

I agree that the Brewers know more than we do, and there could be a reason why they feel he will never be a starter. But if they do feel he can be a starter, I think they should do it now. The reason I worry about pushing his move to the rotation to starter back a year is that the innings limitations he'd have this year he would still have in 2019.

 

If he is put in the rotation in 2018, he's probably limited to around 150 innings. In 2019, he'll be able to 180 or so, and after that there would be no innings limits. Pushing this back a year means that he won't be off of pitch limits until around his second arby year, which is probably about the time we're discussing how much we could get for him in trade.

 

Whoever we trade him to, and whoever signs him as a free agent would be very happy we took that track, but we wouldn't maximize his value to the Brewers. Now, if we announce an extension that gives us a couple of years of free agency, that concern would be lessened, but if we feel comfortable enough to give him an extension now, we should feel comfortable enough to give him a spot in the rotation.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Hader logged ~50 MLB and ~50 minor league innings last season, so a 150 inning limit for 2018 is likely. If he starts the year as a reliever, he's probably pitching 12-15 IP per month. Doing that through June would give him roughly 45 IP. Shifting him into the rotation near the end of June would allow him to get ~18 starts from July-September. At 6IP per start, that gives him 108 innings, bringing his 2018 total into that 150 IP mark.

 

They can always play with timing a bit, and a mid-season transition from the pen to a starting role would need to include some piggyback starts to stretch him out, but if he stays healthy this is the route I'd prefer they take with Hader next season.

[mrn1ceguy]

Hader logged ~50 MLB and ~50 minor league innings last season, so a 150 inning limit for 2018 is likely. If he starts the year as a reliever, he's probably pitching 12-15 IP per month. Doing that through June would give him roughly 45 IP. Shifting him into the rotation near the end of June would allow him to get ~18 starts from July-September. At 6IP per start, that gives him 108 innings, bringing his 2018 total into that 150 IP mark.

 

They can always play with timing a bit, and a mid-season transition from the pen to a starting role would need to include some piggyback starts to stretch him out, but if he stays healthy this is the route I'd prefer they take with Hader next season.

 

I would do it the other way around. Let him start until the All Star break, giving him that ~100 innings. Then, about the time either Neslon is ready to come back or Burnes/Ortiz is ready for a promotion, move Hader to the pen to get him the last 50 innings and bolster the pen for a possible playoff push. If at some point he shows he can't be a starter, then we could move him to the pen earlier and call it a day. But if he does succeed, then you have the best possible starters throughout the year (Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Hader, Gallardo/Wilkerson/Suter/Guerra/??? until the AS break and then Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Nelson, Burnes/Ortiz to close) while getting a midseason boost to the pen. That also then sets up Hader to be a near full-time starter for 2019 assuming he has earned it.

[JohnBriggs12]

Hader isn't starting. The off-season moves say so. They wouldn't have let Swarzak go and they wouldn't have signed a guy that really can only start.

 

Totally agree. They'd be nuts to mess with him now.

 

Huh? Chris Sale had 79 relief appearances before making his first major league start. Was making him a starter "messing" with him? Hader has 95 professional starts and was very successful in that role. Returning him to a starter role is a move that will happen. It's simply a matter of when. He's probably the lone guy in the system with true ace potential.

 

Let's wait and see what the roster looks like two months from now. It's likely to be completely different. Gallardo is a candidate to start. He's by no means a lock. They took a flyer on him because the price was right. They were going to bring in a value FA or two regardless of the plans for Hader as they only have 3 secure rotation spots, and that's only if you consider Woodruff secure. He's likely assured of starting the season in the rotation, but if he struggles, he can be optioned. No way is he guaranteed a rotation spot no matter what for an entire season.

 

For all we know, Stearns has a trade offer out for Brad Hand, or some other top reliever and he's waiting for the market to come to him.

[reillymcshane]

So much of the rotation depends on what you do with Hader. Unless the club really doesn't think he can make it as a starter, I think you have try him in the rotation to begin the season. If he falters, they shift him back to the pen by mid-season - when someone like Corbin Burnes might be ready to come to the majors.

 

For some reason I think the club will keep him as a reliever. No special info to support that - just a guess. I'm just thinking the team - and Hader - are going to say, this is what Josh is. Let's not try and make him something he's not. Again, just a guess.

[JohnBriggs12]

1. Anderson

2. Davies

3. Chacin

4. Woodruff

5. Suter/Gallardo/Guerra/Wilkerson

 

Wild Cards: Hader and Nelson

 

The top 3 were a combined 42-23 last season.

[Boomer5]

By now we know that Hader is absolutely not starting and they are not expecting Nelson back anytime soon.

[reillymcshane]

The addition of Chacin - plus the Brewers interest in another starter and the lack of adding any big FA relievers - makes me think the club wants Hader in the bullpen for next year.

 

Of course, we have to make another big addition to the rotation - but if that happens - I think Hader's role is in the bullpen.

[superfly]

The addition of Chacin - plus the Brewers interest in another starter and the lack of adding any big FA relievers - makes me think the club wants Hader in the bullpen for next year.

 

Of course, we have to make another big addition to the rotation - but if that happens - I think Hader's role is in the bullpen.

 

Sounds great to me. Hader has quite a bit more value to me pitching 3 times a week in high leverage situations than 1+ a week as a #5 starter.

[Boomer5]

The addition of Chacin - plus the Brewers interest in another starter and the lack of adding any big FA relievers - makes me think the club wants Hader in the bullpen for next year.

 

Of course, we have to make another big addition to the rotation - but if that happens - I think Hader's role is in the bullpen.

 

Sounds great to me. Hader has quite a bit more value to me pitching 3 times a week in high leverage situations than 1+ a week as a #5 starter.

 

Absolutely. This is 2018, not 1978. High end relievers who can go 2 innings in high leverage situations are gold these days but they don't cost as much as TOR starters.

[TJseven7]

The addition of Chacin - plus the Brewers interest in another starter and the lack of adding any big FA relievers - makes me think the club wants Hader in the bullpen for next year.

 

Of course, we have to make another big addition to the rotation - but if that happens - I think Hader's role is in the bullpen.

 

Sounds great to me. Hader has quite a bit more value to me pitching 3 times a week in high leverage situations than 1+ a week as a #5 starter.

 

Absolutely. This is 2018, not 1978. High end relievers who can go 2 innings in high leverage situations are gold these days but they don't cost as much as TOR starters.

 

Not to mention there are zero reasons to believe that he will fail as a high leverage rp... while there are plenty of concerns out his ability to even be a useful 5 starter. I've been in the keep him in the pen camp with a brief... hell why not start him....stretch of days prior to Chacin. I know the desire to see if he's ace capable but I feel we'll start seeing signs of it with him in the pen. Like he puts up 3 straight appearences where he gets a high leverage 7th inning and 29 pitches later Hader just game overed them. He comes in in the 6th and CC just smiles and says ok you arent coming out. 42 pitches 6k 4ip 1h 0bb... and tadda. At that point, the group who wants him starting has my full undivided allegence. The 20 pitch CLEAN innings aren't making me think starter.

 

Not to mention, and maybe its my preference and bias seeping into what I see, i think stearns is looking for quality stuff quality start horses for the rotation while putting big knock out arms in the pen. Maybe its a durability thing. Maybe its a numbers thing. Maybe its a small market value thing but it sure does seem like we tell our arms to pound the zone and get deep into games.

[mrn1ceguy]

If/Until we sign another pitcher, this is how I'd like things to shake out.

 

Start of the year

SP1: Anderson

SP2: Davies

SP3: Chacin

SP4: Woodruff

SP5: Hader

 

SP Insurance: Wilkerson, Jungmann (if he clears waiver), Long Relievers from below

 

Closer: Knebel

7th/8th: Jeffress, Barnes, FA

Long Relief: Guerra, Suter, Gallardo

Other RP: Williams

 

AAA Insurance: Houser, Derby, anyone else on the 40

 

The extra long relievers allow us to have multiple multi-inning pitchers to cover early season short starts from Woodruff/Hader.

 

Shortly after the All-Star Break

SP1: Anderson

SP2: Davies

SP3: Chacin

SP4: Woodruff

SP5: Burnes/Nelson

 

SP Insurance: Wilkerson, Ortiz, Nelson/Burnes

 

Closer: Knebel

7th/8th: FA, Hader, Williams

Long Relief: 1 of Guerra, Suter, Gallardo

Other RP: Jeffress, Barnes, Houser

 

AAA Insurance: F. Peralta, Derby, anyone else on the 40

[monty57]

If we sign another starter, I'll agree that means Hader is in the pen. There's a good chance that Gallardo was signed as a reliever, so Hader could still be our de facto #5.

 

I'd just hate to think that we turned our shot at a Randy Johnson or Chris Sale into an Andrew Miller. Talk about the value of relievers all you want, but I don't see anyone taking a good starting pitcher and converting them into a "shutdown reliever." Think how good the Braves could've been in the 90's if they had just put Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine in the pen and signed some innings eaters to get them to their shutdown pen.

 

Again, if the Brewers keep him in the pen I hope it's because they strongly believe he will never be a quality starter. Keeping him in the pen until he's late in his pre-arby years or early in his arby years and then converting him to a starter just limits his overall value to the Brewers and sets him up for a huge payday from another team when he's a free agent. If he's destined to be a starter, they're best to do it now.

[MadThinker88]

I'd just hate to think that we turned our shot at a Randy Johnson or Chris Sale into an Andrew Miller.

 

I saw a note earlier in the thread & I think the point bears repeating - Chris Sale was in the ChiSox bullpen for his first 2 seasons in the majors.

Hader, if in the bullpen for 2018, would be following the same path.

 

Now personally I think Hader should be a starter until its clear he is best suited for the bullpen. That said, if the team lacks a good arm to replace Hader in the pen at the moment, his staying out there for the time being (this 2018 season) does not close the door on his going into the rotation at a later point.

 

The key will be DS going out to get someone that can fill the void in the pen or someone internally stepping forward to take the spot.

[monty57]

I'd just hate to think that we turned our shot at a Randy Johnson or Chris Sale into an Andrew Miller.

 

I saw a note earlier in the thread & I think the point bears repeating - Chris Sale was in the ChiSox bullpen for his first 2 seasons in the majors.

Hader, if in the bullpen for 2018, would be following the same path.

 

Now personally I think Hader should be a starter until its clear he is best suited for the bullpen. That said, if the team lacks a good arm to replace Hader in the pen at the moment, his staying out there for the time being (this 2018 season) does not close the door on his going into the rotation at a later point.

 

The key will be DS going out to get someone that can fill the void in the pen or someone internally stepping forward to take the spot.

 

I agree that he could go be converted to a starter after two seasons in the pen, I just think that it limits the value the Brewers receive from him. We'd get him for 1.5 seasons as a reliever, his final pre-arby year as a 150 IP starter (increasing his arby cost), his first year of arby as a 180 IP starter, then start looking at what we can get for him in trade, possibly get one full season of him as a "no innings limit" starter if he wasn't traded, and then almost certainly trade him away before his final season so we don't lose him in free agency.

 

If he is converted now, we'll at least get more "maximum value" years as a starter. Plus, if we have any interest in extending him, it should be done early and we'll have a lot more info on which to base that decision (and what the price should be) if we see what he can do as a starter. If I were him, and thought that I could start, I'd never extend with a team that's valuing me based on being a reliever. If we wait until he's proven himself as a starter and that's when he's around his 2nd arby year, we'll basically be paying free agent cost to sign him. If he's as good as he could be, we won't be able to afford that.

 

That was kind of confusing :-)

 

Basically, I'd like to put him at starter. If he shows that he can handle the role I'd try to extend him to get some of his free agent years. He could be really expensive if he lives up to his potential, and signing him early could allow us to get those years at a price we could afford. If he turns into Chris Sale, he's not spending his career with the Brewers, but at least we could get a couple more seasons out of him if we act quickly.

[TJseven7]

I'm not going to disagree with your stance. I see the validity in it... but do you see him being a quality starter when the book on him is quickly becoming, take your cracks at his FB (and even sitting dead red good luck) because everything else doesn't hit the zone. If its not the heater... which many do their best to pepper... there's a lot of guys already daring him to throw off speed for a strike. He's not hurting them for letting those go. It was pretty constant. Fb ball, fb foul, slider ball, fb foul, slider ball, fb foul, fb K. Lot's of high pitch outs on many nights.

[pacopete4]

I'm not going to disagree with your stance. I see the validity in it... but do you see him being a quality starter when the book on him is quickly becoming, take your cracks at his FB (and even sitting dead red good luck) because everything else doesn't hit the zone. If its not the heater... which many do their best to pepper... there's a lot of guys already daring him to throw off speed for a strike. He's not hurting them for letting those go. It was pretty constant. Fb ball, fb foul, slider ball, fb foul, slider ball, fb foul, fb K. Lot's of high pitch outs on many nights.

 

I would be willing to guess he would attack hitters differently as a starter. Using his 2nd & 3rd pitches more often. Not gassing up as much meaning he probably is a bit more accurate. The difference being when he needs it, it is there for him to use. Most starters don't have that to fall back on.

[TJseven7]

Now there's ways to meet in the middle here. Like hand him the ball in the 6th and say situation be damned he's a short stint ace and its his game to close out or blow it. Give him that usage every 4 to 5 days. Use him as a loogey on his throw day. Tell him to throw all his pitches. If he starts looking like a starter out of the pen piggy back him with woody or suter and say thats our 9 innings today 5 ip 4 ip. Then demote suter if hader keeps thriving.

 

But if you start him you rely on suter to spare the pen innings. If you start suter you trust hader to be a close the door ace to rest the pen. I dont love high leverage suter... i don't worry about high leverage hader at all.

[TJseven7]

I guess what im getting at is people here scream every year about our 7th inning man coming in to face the top of the order and the 8th inning man coming in to face 5-8. The role dictated to the inning not the talent. Some claim its comfort. Some claim its nonsense.

 

But we can't have a starter regularly going 5 and this version of hader likely would. It kills the pen and our pen isn't deep. Unless the innings can be eaten in another way. If hader leaves a 2-2 game after 5 I'm not willing to give the ball to suter for 6-9. If suter leaves a game after 5 at 2-2... I'm absolutely willing to say hader finish it. Love knebel but I put no one over hader. Knebel is equal in my eyes. It sucks due to the pitcher batting in the nl. It's a trade off but its also big picture plus for hader and for the pen. I don't think saying hader you are starting today in the 6th is the craziest notion. Or saying hader you are starting in the 6th today behind woodruff or tomorrow behind suter. If the starter falters before the 5th ends you bring in a good arm to get us to hader. Hand him the ball and tell him to go be a starter that finishes.