2018 Starting Rotation

[brewmann04]

I am not sold on Archer as a true #1 and the cost of prospects

[coolhandluke121]

 

So which is more valuable, 80 high leverage innings of a 2.00 ERA guy, or 150 starter innings of a 3.00-3.25 ERA guy? I'm honestly curious and think it's a good topic of discussion. I really don't know the answer.

 

For the Brewers the 150 starter innings of a 3.00-3.25 ERA guy is worth more as Starters in general get paid more and over a longer period of time than relievers do. A 3.00-3.25 ERA guy in free agency is going to cost you about $10-15m a year. I would rather get two relievers on the free agent market for the price of one starter and at a shorter contract length.

 

Hader can go more than 80 innings if they use him in piggyback situations and give him more innings in less outings.

[monty57]

So which is more valuable, 80 high leverage innings of a 2.00 ERA guy, or 150 starter innings of a 3.00-3.25 ERA guy? I'm honestly curious and think it's a good topic of discussion. I really don't know the answer.

 

You have to look at it in more than a one-year time frame.

 

I understand that keeping Hader in the pen might be better for the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers. However, if he is put in the rotation, throws around 150 innings, and continues to develop he will be far more valuable over his time as a Brewer as a starter than as a reliever.

 

I am not sold on Archer as a true #1 and the cost of prospects

 

This is probably the biggest decision for Stearns & Co. this offseason. I'd much rather have Archer than someone with 1-2 years left, so it's really about how much it would cost to get him.

 

I keep flip-flopping on this. We just spent a couple of years building up our farm to build from within, so I'd hate to throw that to the wind and trade away too many prospects for one MLB player. It sounds like the Brewers are really trying to get someone to pay up for Santana, and I'm sure he's the guy we're floating as the headliner for Archer. To me, that means the Brewers value Brinson more than they value Santana, so the question may be whether or not the Rays would want Santana or if they'd demand Brinson. That may determine whether Stearns pulls the trigger on the deal.

 

Losing Santana would hurt our offense, but hopefully Phillips/Brinson can play well enough to limit that harm. If so, and if including Santana in the deal will allow for us to hold on to more of our top prospects, then I could get behind this. We will run into the wall at some time and start losing guys to Rule 5, so some of our prospects should be used as trade chips. We just need to determine which guys we will not trade, and which ones make sense to move for MLB parts.

[pacopete4]

So which is more valuable, 80 high leverage innings of a 2.00 ERA guy, or 150 starter innings of a 3.00-3.25 ERA guy? I'm honestly curious and think it's a good topic of discussion. I really don't know the answer.

 

You have to look at it in more than a one-year time frame.

 

I understand that keeping Hader in the pen might be better for the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers. However, if he is put in the rotation, throws around 150 innings, and continues to develop he will be far more valuable over his time as a Brewer as a starter than as a reliever.

 

Yes. It would be very shortsighted of the Brewers to use Hader in the pen in 2018 only because he makes them better next year when they could have a young, controllable stud, atop their rotation for the next few years if they put him in the rotation. I know I've repeated myself but to not test the waters with this guy is a huge, huge mistake on their part if it does happen.

[TJseven7]

Not that it would help us this year but I like the 2 mil 8 mil 10 mil total 2 year deal the twins gave Pineda.

[Boomer5]

Right now, we are looking at a Davies, Anderson, Woodruff, Suter, Yo rotation.

[pacopete4]

1. Anderson

2. Davies

3. Gallardo

4. Woodruff

5. Hader

 

Long- Suter

RP- Jeffress

RP- Houser

RP- Williams

RP- Barnes

RP- Free Agent (Addison Reed?)

CL- Knebel

[Jaylyn]

1. Anderson

2. Davies

3. Gallardo

4. Woodruff

5. Hader

 

Long- Suter

RP- Jeffress

RP- Houser

 

RP- Williams

RP- Barnes

RP- Free Agent (Addison Reed?)

CL- Knebel

 

 

Close but I expect.

1. Anderson

2. Davies

3. Gallardo

4. Woodruff

5. Suter

 

Closer: Knebel

8th: Hader

7th: Barnes, Williams

RP: Jeffress

Houser

Drake/ FA

Long: Wilkerson

 

Wilkerson may be a stretch, but I did like what I saw in that last game.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Anderson

Davies

Gallardo

Hader

Woodruff

 

9th: Knebel

8th: Barnes or Drake (to face lefties)

7th: Houser or Williams

RP: Suter, Wilkerson (to piggy back with Hader and Woodruff).

 

In the famous words of the grounds crew in Major League, "These guys are s****y."

[MoreTrife]

If Gallardo is in the rotation it will be a real step back and I'm not sure why we're doing it. He clearly has nothing left. This will be year 3 of the rebuild. When do the steps forward begin. IDK, just disappointed in reading Cards frontrunner for Archer when I would have liked to seen him on Brewers.

[adambr2]

So which is more valuable, 80 high leverage innings of a 2.00 ERA guy, or 150 starter innings of a 3.00-3.25 ERA guy? I'm honestly curious and think it's a good topic of discussion. I really don't know the answer.

 

You have to look at it in more than a one-year time frame.

 

I understand that keeping Hader in the pen might be better for the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers. However, if he is put in the rotation, throws around 150 innings, and continues to develop he will be far more valuable over his time as a Brewer as a starter than as a reliever.

 

Yes. It would be very shortsighted of the Brewers to use Hader in the pen in 2018 only because he makes them better next year when they could have a young, controllable stud, atop their rotation for the next few years if they put him in the rotation. I know I've repeated myself but to not test the waters with this guy is a huge, huge mistake on their part if it does happen.

 

It's totally possible that Brewer scouts just don't see Hader as a future ace for whatever reason, pitch mix, control, etc. Many scouts feel that way about him.

 

Honestly, I get where you guys are coming from and I definitely agree with some of it. If they see Hader as a pen arm and lose out on an ace because of it if they're wrong, that's a franchise changing mistake. So even if there are some growing pains in 2018 it may be worth finding out.

 

I am a bit concerned of the void that is left in the pen by his departure. I think the value he brought to the pen last year is understated. I like Williams and Houser, but what I'm really looking for is that power lefty, and Wang and Suter obviously aren't it.

 

He's not ready yet but I'd love to see Kodi Medeiros eventually fill that role. Like Hader, he's got an electric arm but in Kodi's case I do think any future value is in the pen. I'd like to see him start 2018 in Biloxi's pen, leave him alone and let him develop as a reliever and see what happens.

[JohnBriggs12]

If Gallardo is in the rotation it will be a real step back and I'm not sure why we're doing it. He clearly has nothing left. This will be year 3 of the rebuild. When do the steps forward begin. IDK, just disappointed in reading Cards frontrunner for Archer when I would have liked to seen him on Brewers.

 

You are reading too much into the Yo signing. Yo's a place holder at best until either Nelson returns or they decide to go with a young arm to fill that spot at mid season. I'm guessing they've decided since the market for relievers is too rich right now, that Hader starts the year in the pen, but they'll be bullpen arms available in July and if Nelson's not back yet, then they could make the move to Hader starting in midseason. I still think they'll either add a FA like a Cobb or deal for a controllable starter, and let Suter and maybe a few other guys battle Yo in spring training for #5 spot.

[3and2Fastball]

Does Hader have more than 2 controllable pitches? Maybe I'm "mis-remembering" but I thought he's mostly a fastball-slider guy whose fastball goes down to 92 mph when he gets to pitch 35-40 or so.... He sure seems to me like a light a lights out relief ace star with marginal potential as a starter....

[pacopete4]

Does Hader have more than 2 controllable pitches? Maybe I'm "mis-remembering" but I thought he's mostly a fastball-slider guy whose fastball goes down to 92 mph when he gets to pitch 35-40 or so.... He sure seems to me like a light a lights out relief ace star with marginal potential as a starter....

 

The problem is you’ll never know if you don’t use him as a starter. That’s the point. In 2018, the Brewers are not winning the series, so why are we not trying to maximize the best arm this franchise has had maybe ever.

[Jaylyn]

Does Hader have more than 2 controllable pitches? Maybe I'm "mis-remembering" but I thought he's mostly a fastball-slider guy whose fastball goes down to 92 mph when he gets to pitch 35-40 or so.... He sure seems to me like a light a lights out relief ace star with marginal potential as a starter....

 

That's what I read as well, excellent fastball/slider. Changeup is inconsistant. When/if he can control that changeup, then you have a TOR, until then, don't put him in a position to fail.

[pacopete4]

Does Hader have more than 2 controllable pitches? Maybe I'm "mis-remembering" but I thought he's mostly a fastball-slider guy whose fastball goes down to 92 mph when he gets to pitch 35-40 or so.... He sure seems to me like a light a lights out relief ace star with marginal potential as a starter....

 

That's what I read as well, excellent fastball/slider. Changeup is inconsistant. When/if he can control that changeup, then you have a TOR, until then, don't put him in a position to fail.

 

 

You never get to work on a third pitch coming out of the pen in the situation he does. You’re limiting your best arm and never allowing him progress.

[Austin Tatious]

By mid season how about this:

 

Nelson

Davies

Anderson

Woodruff

Burnes

 

In other words, I don’t think Burnes is that far away.

 

You’d have to get through the first three months with the likes of Jungmann, Suter, and Yo for some starts.

 

Then in 2019 hopefully Ortiz is in the mix.

 

It’s grinding along.

[Jaylyn]

Does Hader have more than 2 controllable pitches? Maybe I'm "mis-remembering" but I thought he's mostly a fastball-slider guy whose fastball goes down to 92 mph when he gets to pitch 35-40 or so.... He sure seems to me like a light a lights out relief ace star with marginal potential as a starter....

 

That's what I read as well, excellent fastball/slider. Changeup is inconsistant. When/if he can control that changeup, then you have a TOR, until then, don't put him in a position to fail.

 

 

You never get to work on a third pitch coming out of the pen in the situation he does. You’re limiting your best arm and never allowing him progress.

 

Understand that POV completely, don't get me wrong I really want Hader in the rotation. but I also don't want him getting shelled every 5 days for lacking that 3rd pitch. I only hope they are working OT with him to get more consistant with that changeup. He's what 23? He has time to work on it. Actually I'm confident he will find that 3rd pitch and you just may have an Ace in a Brewer uniform!

[Boomer5]

Hader isn't starting. The off-season moves say so. They wouldn't have let Swarzak go and they wouldn't have signed a guy that really can only start.

[FVBrewerFan]

Hader isn't starting. The off-season moves say so. They wouldn't have let Swarzak go and they wouldn't have signed a guy that really can only start.

 

It is December 17th. We have no idea what the roster will look like in April. They could sign or trade for 8 relievers by then.

[CheezWizHed]

Same with Gallardo... I don't know why he can "only start". Could be long man/6th starter...

[monty57]

I hope for more, but Gallardo looks like a placeholder until either Nelson is back or someone like Burns is ready to be called up. It's still early, so there's a good chance that this is a fallback plan in case nothing better arises, with Gallardo going to the pen if we sign someone else.

 

Being optimistic, this may mean that Nelson is looking better than feared. Much of the reason I've called for signing a starter is that I don't expect much from Nelson in 2018. If he's only going to miss a month or two, there is little reason to spend big on a starter so it makes sense to sign a stopgap.

[Mudville9]

On the plus side YOGA does provide starting or relief flexibilty and allows DS to find a good deal on one side or the other. I hate the term "outside the box", but what about Hader in a starting roll with Yovanni or Suter coming in a piggyback type situation. That way Hader gets some starting experience, but we can still keep his innings down. The downside would be watching his lead get blown every game.

[monty57]

On the plus side YOGA does provide starting or relief flexibilty and allows DS to find a good deal on one side or the other. I hate the term "outside the box", but what about Hader in a starting roll with Yovanni or Suter coming in a piggyback type situation. That way Hader gets some starting experience, but we can still keep his innings down. The downside would be watching his lead get blown every game.

 

I don't think we'll do strict "piggyback," but having a few bullpen arms who can go multiple innings is a good thing, especially when we have some young starters.

 

Some days Hader, Woodruff, etc will go 6-7 innings, and that's great. Some days, they'll go 3-4 innings and need the "long man" to pick up a few innings. If you "piggyback" Hader, that guy isn't available when someone else has a bad outing. If you have a few guys in the pen who can go multiple innings (or go one inning if that's what you need), you have a lot more flexibility in managing your pitching staff.

 

Like having Perez who can play any position, flexibility is valuable when the player is allowed to play when and where he is needed. Why add the rigidity of a "piggyback" when you have the flexibility of several multi-inning guys in the pen?

 

I think that's a nice weapon to have that can give you an advantage over 162 games.

[rickh150]

Hader isn't starting. The off-season moves say so. They wouldn't have let Swarzak go and they wouldn't have signed a guy that really can only start.

 

Totally agree. They'd be nuts to mess with him now.