2018 Starting Rotation

[KeithStone53151]

That's some solid analysis right there.

 

You'd be doing teams a favor by starting Hader. His stuff wouldn't be so lethal the 2nd or 3rd time you saw him in a game. He'd also face tons of rhb's. Very few teams lack for rhb's and it's the easier side of a platoon to fill. They'd be lining up their rhb's for Hader's starts. It would be a waste of what makes him great.

 

This would have played better in my mind had you not tried to compare it to the Badgers going in with the gameplan of dropping Hornibrook back 50 times because they were stacking against the run lol.

 

I disagree with it. I think you let your special arms like Hader try to be as dominant for as long as they possibly can in a game. Being a starter, he can do that. I'm in the camp that believes he's our best chance, in a long.. long time, to actually produce TOR numbers. We've waited so long to have an arm as special as his and for us to limit him at the age that he is at just makes no sense to me. Could be looking at the next Randy Johnson. And if that fails(in 2-3 years), then stick him back in the pen and use him there.

 

, well done sir.

[bill hAll Star]

There are a lot of games where teams got Hader up to 20+ pitches in one inning by just fouling off his fastball/slider. How long is he gonna make it in games if he doesn't develop a 3rd pitch that he can consistently throw for strikes? I'm new age and don't mind starters that don't go too late into games, but at a certain point you might be better suited using him to be Andrew Miller as your weapon when you are tied/winning and facing the meat of an order with lefties if he can't get past the 4th inning regularly as a starter.

[KeithStone53151]

There are a lot of games where teams got Hader up to 20+ pitches in one inning by just fouling off his fastball/slider. How long is he gonna make it in games if he doesn't develop a 3rd pitch that he can consistently throw for strikes? I'm new age and don't mind starters that don't go too late into games, but at a certain point you might be better suited using him to be Andrew Miller as your weapon when you are tied/winning and facing the meat of an order with lefties if he can't get past the 4th inning regularly as a starter.

 

We won't know that until we give him a chance at this level. Hader most commonly had 5+ inning starts in the minors that many are referencing and he only threw 80-85 pitches in those starts, if given 100 pitches to work with he'd likely go 6+...which is plenty. There will absolutely be times that Hader and Woodruff have shorter starts(also will be times that Anderson/Davies have shorter starts), that's why we'll likely have an 8 man bullpen.

[bill hAll Star]

There are a lot of games where teams got Hader up to 20+ pitches in one inning by just fouling off his fastball/slider. How long is he gonna make it in games if he doesn't develop a 3rd pitch that he can consistently throw for strikes? I'm new age and don't mind starters that don't go too late into games, but at a certain point you might be better suited using him to be Andrew Miller as your weapon when you are tied/winning and facing the meat of an order with lefties if he can't get past the 4th inning regularly as a starter.

 

We won't know that until we give him a chance at this level. Hader most commonly had 5+ inning starts in the minors that many are referencing and he only threw 80-85 pitches in those starts, if given 100 pitches to work with he'd likely go 6+...which is plenty. There will absolutely be times that Hader and Woodruff have shorter starts(also will be times that Anderson/Davies have shorter starts), that's why we'll likely have an 8 man bullpen.

 

Minor league teams do not have as much ability to work a pitch count like Hader can be worked, though. Also, minor league teams could have lefties in the lineup because they're trying to develop them. Major league teams will stack the lineups with righties.

 

Also, a guy that doesn't have varied stuff like Hader could get hit even harder the 2nd/3rd time around as CHL said.

[KeithStone53151]

There are a lot of games where teams got Hader up to 20+ pitches in one inning by just fouling off his fastball/slider. How long is he gonna make it in games if he doesn't develop a 3rd pitch that he can consistently throw for strikes? I'm new age and don't mind starters that don't go too late into games, but at a certain point you might be better suited using him to be Andrew Miller as your weapon when you are tied/winning and facing the meat of an order with lefties if he can't get past the 4th inning regularly as a starter.

 

We won't know that until we give him a chance at this level. Hader most commonly had 5+ inning starts in the minors that many are referencing and he only threw 80-85 pitches in those starts, if given 100 pitches to work with he'd likely go 6+...which is plenty. There will absolutely be times that Hader and Woodruff have shorter starts(also will be times that Anderson/Davies have shorter starts), that's why we'll likely have an 8 man bullpen.

 

Minor league teams do not have as much ability to work a pitch count like Hader can be worked, though. Also, minor league teams could have lefties in the lineup because they're trying to develop them. Major league teams will stack the lineups with righties.

 

Also, a guy that doesn't have varied stuff like Hader could get hit even harder the 2nd/3rd time around as CHL said.

 

Fangraphs has Hader's fastball at 94-95, changeup at 85-86, slider at 80-81. That's plenty of variability in his stuff. And generally being concerned that Hader is going to reach a pitch limit around 4 innings is a bit ridiculous. Some guys might work the count, some guys he'll strike out on 3 pitches. He had plenty of 8-10 pitch innings out of the bullpen, especially in the last month. He'll face more righties in the rotation, but guys like Votto/rizzo will still play against him. There are absolutely concerns with Hader, he's not a finished product yet. Those of us that want him to start think a 23 year old pitcher with electric stuff and significant major league success can improve and succeed in a SP role.

[liveforoctober]

There are a lot of games where teams got Hader up to 20+ pitches in one inning by just fouling off his fastball/slider. How long is he gonna make it in games if he doesn't develop a 3rd pitch that he can consistently throw for strikes? I'm new age and don't mind starters that don't go too late into games, but at a certain point you might be better suited using him to be Andrew Miller as your weapon when you are tied/winning and facing the meat of an order with lefties if he can't get past the 4th inning regularly as a starter.

 

We won't know that until we give him a chance at this level. Hader most commonly had 5+ inning starts in the minors that many are referencing and he only threw 80-85 pitches in those starts, if given 100 pitches to work with he'd likely go 6+...which is plenty. There will absolutely be times that Hader and Woodruff have shorter starts(also will be times that Anderson/Davies have shorter starts), that's why we'll likely have an 8 man bullpen.

 

Minor league teams do not have as much ability to work a pitch count like Hader can be worked, though. Also, minor league teams could have lefties in the lineup because they're trying to develop them. Major league teams will stack the lineups with righties.

 

Also, a guy that doesn't have varied stuff like Hader could get hit even harder the 2nd/3rd time around as CHL said.

 

I'm not necessarily arguing with you, but you are using hypotheticals to make your argument. He might get hit harder a 2nd time through the lineup. He could face less lefties in the big leagues, etc.

 

If Andrew Miller is his calling, then great. Glad to have him on the roster.

 

He also could be Chris Sale. Probably worth finding out?

[pacopete4]

I think the point is, we won't know until he is given the opportunity to do so.

[bill hAll Star]

Fangraphs has Hader's fastball at 94-95, changeup at 85-86, slider at 80-81. That's plenty of variability in his stuff. And generally being concerned that Hader is going to reach a pitch limit around 4 innings is a bit ridiculous. Some guys might work the count, some guys he'll strike out on 3 pitches. He had plenty of 8-10 pitch innings out of the bullpen, especially in the last month. He'll face more righties in the rotation, but guys like Votto/rizzo will still play against him. There are absolutely concerns with Hader, he's not a finished product yet. Those of us that want him to start think a 23 year old pitcher with electric stuff and significant major league success can improve and succeed in a SP role.

 

Honest question because I don't know the answer: Are there any successful pitchers that throw a fastball 70% of the time? I guess that's my concern. Maybe he is just hiding his change because he didn't need it as a reliever, but I just don't know how long a guy can make it only throwing fastball/slider.

 

I'm definitely up for giving him a shot. I guess he probably could be Danny Duffy-esque. 40/40/20 on fastball, slider, change.

[monty57]

Every team stacks up RH hitters against LHP. The argument that teams would do that against Hader could basically be an argument to never have LH starting pitchers. Hader has the type of slider that RH hitters hate. They will swing at a pitch that ends up hitting them in the back foot. Of course he's better against LH hitters, but he can certainly get RH hitters out.

 

I hate making comparisons to great players as it's unfair to the player, but Hader reminds me of a shorter Randy Johnson. He has some control issues, which could make him more effective if hitters don't feel comfortable in the box, but when he's on his fastball/slider combo makes the best hitters in the game (guys like Harper and Votto) look absolutely foolish. No one else does that, so to me that means he could be special. I think we should give him every chance to prove that he is special as a starter where he will have the most value. If he doesn't cut it, then we know he can be moved back to the pen and be great there.

[KeithStone53151]

 

Honest question because I don't know the answer: Are there any successful pitchers that throw a fastball 70% of the time? I guess that's my concern. Maybe he is just hiding his change because he didn't need it as a reliever, but I just don't know how long a guy can make it only throwing fastball/slider.

 

I'm definitely up for giving him a shot. I guess he probably could be Danny Duffy-esque. 40/40/20 on fastball, slider, change.

 

Look at Strasburg, Kershaw, Verlander, Sale, etc when they first came up on fangraphs. Those guys were 60-70% fastball initially. Kershaw was basically a 2 pitch pitcher in 2008 and 2009. Those ratios changed when they fully developed, but most pitchers still throw the fastball 50-60% of the time.

[Lathund]

I think we absolutely have to give Hader an opportunity as a starter. We already know he can transition to to the pen midseason and do well, so that's the fallback plan. It doesn't work quite so well the other way around. As a starter he'd be getting twice as many innings in a season, if he can be anywhere near as good in those as he was as a reliever then that's where he should be. But as the club is alluding to; it's a matter of what other moves are made in the offseason as well, where the need is the greatest.

 

Hader is also the type of pitcher you could do some more unconventional stuff with, like having one spot in the rotation be a piggyback with a RHP. It's also worth exploring, as I'm sure teams are doing, the relationship between the fatigue/injury risk of a starter (High pitch count with a long break inbetween) and relievers (Low pitch count sometimes multiple days in a row), and trying to see if the optimal point is somewhere inbetween. Pitching 3 innings every 3 days, accruing ~160 innings; Does that put more strain on the arm/shoulder than 180 innings as a more traditional starter? 3 innings every 4 days? Could you run a 6-man rotation with Hader scheduled to pitch 2-3 innings after the #2 and #5 guys, or some variation on that theme?

 

The problem with that kind of thing of course is that games can be very different. The starter might be having a great day and be on a really low pitch count late in the game so Hader doesn't get in the game. Or it may be a blowout. Or some severe platoon splits you want to exploit. So how consistently can you stick to such a schedule and have an even workload? And how much do you value micro-managing each individual game over optimizing workload and maximizing innings? I mean in the playoffs the balance is definitely 100% in favour of the first option, but should it always be so in the regular season? It's at least worth questioning the conventional wisdom; it might very well stand up to that questioning and prove to be the optimal way, but you need to ask the question to make sure.

 

I think the usage of both long relievers in general, and the "fireman" usage of Miller/Hader and others is an area where there's still a lot to be gained. And finding ways to get more innings out of your top relievers, making the most out of converted starters who don't have the stuff or stamina to go 6+ innings, but can regularly go 3-4, and just generally trying to get your best pitchers as many innings as possible in a way that doesn't increase injury risk.

 

tl;dr: Give him every chance to start. If not, be creative in giving him more innings than a typical reliever.

[bill hAll Star]

Every team stacks up RH hitters against LHP. The argument that teams would do that against Hader could basically be an argument to never have LH starting pitchers. Hader has the type of slider that RH hitters hate. They will swing at a pitch that ends up hitting them in the back foot. Of course he's better against LH hitters, but he can certainly get RH hitters out.

 

I hate making comparisons to great players as it's unfair to the player, but Hader reminds me of a shorter Randy Johnson. He has some control issues, which could make him more effective if hitters don't feel comfortable in the box, but when he's on his fastball/slider combo makes the best hitters in the game (guys like Harper and Votto) look absolutely foolish. No one else does that, so to me that means he could be special. I think we should give him every chance to prove that he is special as a starter where he will have the most value. If he doesn't cut it, then we know he can be moved back to the pen and be great there.

 

I wasn't suggesting that teams don't stack righties. Of course they do.

 

I was saying that if Hader was truly a 4-inning starter, CHL has a point that he's maybe best used against a lefty part of a lineup in close games.

 

I also was noting that teams can push his pitch count/hit him harder than the "he generally went 6 in the minors" thing.

 

All of that said, I'm all for giving him a shot.

[KeithStone53151]

Every team stacks up RH hitters against LHP. The argument that teams would do that against Hader could basically be an argument to never have LH starting pitchers. Hader has the type of slider that RH hitters hate. They will swing at a pitch that ends up hitting them in the back foot. Of course he's better against LH hitters, but he can certainly get RH hitters out.

 

I hate making comparisons to great players as it's unfair to the player, but Hader reminds me of a shorter Randy Johnson. He has some control issues, which could make him more effective if hitters don't feel comfortable in the box, but when he's on his fastball/slider combo makes the best hitters in the game (guys like Harper and Votto) look absolutely foolish. No one else does that, so to me that means he could be special. I think we should give him every chance to prove that he is special as a starter where he will have the most value. If he doesn't cut it, then we know he can be moved back to the pen and be great there.

 

Not to stray too far off topic, but I remember watching CC face Pujols in his prime for the first time. I had never ever seen Pujols look bad in an at bat up until that point, but man did CC make him look terrible. Only premier arms can make the best hitters look bad. The fact that Hader can do it speaks volumes to his ability.

[monty57]

Honest question because I don't know the answer: Are there any successful pitchers that throw a fastball 70% of the time? I guess that's my concern. Maybe he is just hiding his change because he didn't need it as a reliever, but I just don't know how long a guy can make it only throwing fastball/slider.

 

I'm definitely up for giving him a shot. I guess he probably could be Danny Duffy-esque. 40/40/20 on fastball, slider, change.

 

It's not one pitch 70% of the time, but back to Randy Johnson, he threw 52.8% FB, 38.6% Slider, so basically a two-pitch pitcher. He threw the occasional change-up for most of his career, then gave up on that when he started throwing a splitter more at the end of his career.

 

Ben Sheets threw 63.1% FB / 30.7% curve ball for his career.

 

If you're going to make it on two pitches, they'd better be darned good pitches. Hader could potentially do that, but would obviously be much better off if he can get the change-up to league average.

[OnaBadger58]

Honest question because I don't know the answer: Are there any successful pitchers that throw a fastball 70% of the time? I guess that's my concern. Maybe he is just hiding his change because he didn't need it as a reliever, but I just don't know how long a guy can make it only throwing fastball/slider.

 

I'm definitely up for giving him a shot. I guess he probably could be Danny Duffy-esque. 40/40/20 on fastball, slider, change.

 

It's not one pitch 70% of the time, but back to Randy Johnson, he threw 52.8% FB, 38.6% Slider, so basically a two-pitch pitcher. He threw the occasional change-up for most of his career, then gave up on that when he started throwing a splitter more at the end of his career.

 

Ben Sheets threw 63.1% FB / 30.7% curve ball for his career.

 

If you're going to make it on two pitches, they'd better be darned good pitches. Hader could potentially do that, but would obviously be much better off if he can get the change-up to league average.

Lance Lynn has thrown no lower than 70% fastball in his career (in 2016, he threw 85%). This is the main reason why I wouldn't come close to signing him.

[coolhandluke121]

 

So Hader is a situational lefty now?

 

In no way whatsoever does my comment say or imply that. Is Andrew Miller a situational lefty?

[coolhandluke121]

Every team stacks up RH hitters against LHP. The argument that teams would do that against Hader could basically be an argument to never have LH starting pitchers. Hader has the type of slider that RH hitters hate. They will swing at a pitch that ends up hitting them in the back foot. Of course he's better against LH hitters, but he can certainly get RH hitters out.

 

I hate making comparisons to great players as it's unfair to the player, but Hader reminds me of a shorter Randy Johnson. He has some control issues, which could make him more effective if hitters don't feel comfortable in the box, but when he's on his fastball/slider combo makes the best hitters in the game (guys like Harper and Votto) look absolutely foolish. No one else does that, so to me that means he could be special. I think we should give him every chance to prove that he is special as a starter where he will have the most value. If he doesn't cut it, then we know he can be moved back to the pen and be great there.

 

I wasn't suggesting that teams don't stack righties. Of course they do.

 

I was saying that if Hader was truly a 4-inning starter, CHL has a point that he's maybe best used against a lefty part of a lineup in close games.

 

I also was noting that teams can push his pitch count/hit him harder than the "he generally went 6 in the minors" thing.

 

 

Yep. Clearly he would still pitch against lots of rhb's, especially since teams would use ph's against him. But you would be making it harder for teams to game-plan by not having his outings be so regular and predictable.

 

You could also use him judiciously against teams with lots of rhb's and then get longer outings out of him against teams with good lhb's, an advantage that's much harder to get when you are basically stuck pitching a guy just because it's his turn in the rotation regardless of whether he's a good match-up against that team.

[KeithStone53151]

Every team stacks up RH hitters against LHP. The argument that teams would do that against Hader could basically be an argument to never have LH starting pitchers. Hader has the type of slider that RH hitters hate. They will swing at a pitch that ends up hitting them in the back foot. Of course he's better against LH hitters, but he can certainly get RH hitters out.

 

I hate making comparisons to great players as it's unfair to the player, but Hader reminds me of a shorter Randy Johnson. He has some control issues, which could make him more effective if hitters don't feel comfortable in the box, but when he's on his fastball/slider combo makes the best hitters in the game (guys like Harper and Votto) look absolutely foolish. No one else does that, so to me that means he could be special. I think we should give him every chance to prove that he is special as a starter where he will have the most value. If he doesn't cut it, then we know he can be moved back to the pen and be great there.

 

I wasn't suggesting that teams don't stack righties. Of course they do.

 

I was saying that if Hader was truly a 4-inning starter, CHL has a point that he's maybe best used against a lefty part of a lineup in close games.

 

I also was noting that teams can push his pitch count/hit him harder than the "he generally went 6 in the minors" thing.

 

 

Yep. Clearly he would still pitch against lots of rhb's, especially since teams would use ph's against him. But you would be making it harder for teams to game-plan by not having his outings be so regular and predictable.

 

You could also use him judiciously against teams with lots of rhb's and then get longer outings out of him against teams with good lhb's, an advantage that's much harder to get when you are basically stuck pitching a guy just because it's his turn in the rotation regardless of whether he's a good match-up against that team.

 

You could probably utilize other top notch lefty SP in a similar manner and have them achieve better results than pitching every 5th day. Those of us that want him to start see a potential star, and it's really now or never as to whether he's going to be a SP going forward. A bullpen fallback doesn't go away because he opens in the rotation.

[brewerfan82]

Honest question because I don't know the answer: Are there any successful pitchers that throw a fastball 70% of the time? I guess that's my concern. Maybe he is just hiding his change because he didn't need it as a reliever, but I just don't know how long a guy can make it only throwing fastball/slider.

 

I'm definitely up for giving him a shot. I guess he probably could be Danny Duffy-esque. 40/40/20 on fastball, slider, change.

FanGraphs has a nice Pitch Type section of the leaderboard that you can sort by FB%: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=c,75,76,77,78,79,80,81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,6,42,45,59&season=2017&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d

 

If you look over the past 4 seasons, there are quite a few pitchers with high FB%, notably:

 

Bartolo Colon (84.7% - 4.07 FIP)

Lance Lynn (81.7% - 3.86 FIP)

Aaron Sanchez (77% - 3.98 FIP)

JA Happ (70.7% - 3.85 FIP)

Danny Salazar (68.4% - 3.60 FIP)

Robbie Ray (67% - 3.77 FIP)

James Paxton (65.7% - 3.08 FIP)

Jimmy Nelson (65.3% - 4.06 FIP)

Kyle Hendricks (65.3% - 3.43 FIP)

 

Wouldn't call that a list of aces, but a lot of decent pitchers do pull it off.

[Mudville9]

I think we absolutely have to give Hader an opportunity as a starter. We already know he can transition to to the pen midseason and do well, so that's the fallback plan. It doesn't work quite so well the other way around. As a starter he'd be getting twice as many innings in a season, if he can be anywhere near as good in those as he was as a reliever then that's where he should be. But as the club is alluding to; it's a matter of what other moves are made in the offseason as well, where the need is the greatest.

 

Hader is also the type of pitcher you could do some more unconventional stuff with, like having one spot in the rotation be a piggyback with a RHP. It's also worth exploring, as I'm sure teams are doing, the relationship between the fatigue/injury risk of a starter (High pitch count with a long break inbetween) and relievers (Low pitch count sometimes multiple days in a row), and trying to see if the optimal point is somewhere inbetween. Pitching 3 innings every 3 days, accruing ~160 innings; Does that put more strain on the arm/shoulder than 180 innings as a more traditional starter? 3 innings every 4 days? Could you run a 6-man rotation with Hader scheduled to pitch 2-3 innings after the #2 and #5 guys, or some variation on that theme?

 

The problem with that kind of thing of course is that games can be very different. The starter might be having a great day and be on a really low pitch count late in the game so Hader doesn't get in the game. Or it may be a blowout. Or some severe platoon splits you want to exploit. So how consistently can you stick to such a schedule and have an even workload? And how much do you value micro-managing each individual game over optimizing workload and maximizing innings? I mean in the playoffs the balance is definitely 100% in favour of the first option, but should it always be so in the regular season? It's at least worth questioning the conventional wisdom; it might very well stand up to that questioning and prove to be the optimal way, but you need to ask the question to make sure.

 

I think the usage of both long relievers in general, and the "fireman" usage of Miller/Hader and others is an area where there's still a lot to be gained. And finding ways to get more innings out of your top relievers, making the most out of converted starters who don't have the stuff or stamina to go 6+ innings, but can regularly go 3-4, and just generally trying to get your best pitchers as many innings as possible in a way that doesn't increase injury risk.

 

tl;dr: Give him every chance to start. If not, be creative in giving him more innings than a typical reliever.

 

I would love to see Hader start a piggyback with T. Williams after. I can't imagine being an opposing hitter and seeing the filth coming from both sides during the game. Throw K. Medeirois in for the save to really confuse everyone.

[KeithStone53151]

I think we absolutely have to give Hader an opportunity as a starter. We already know he can transition to to the pen midseason and do well, so that's the fallback plan. It doesn't work quite so well the other way around. As a starter he'd be getting twice as many innings in a season, if he can be anywhere near as good in those as he was as a reliever then that's where he should be. But as the club is alluding to; it's a matter of what other moves are made in the offseason as well, where the need is the greatest.

 

Hader is also the type of pitcher you could do some more unconventional stuff with, like having one spot in the rotation be a piggyback with a RHP. It's also worth exploring, as I'm sure teams are doing, the relationship between the fatigue/injury risk of a starter (High pitch count with a long break inbetween) and relievers (Low pitch count sometimes multiple days in a row), and trying to see if the optimal point is somewhere inbetween. Pitching 3 innings every 3 days, accruing ~160 innings; Does that put more strain on the arm/shoulder than 180 innings as a more traditional starter? 3 innings every 4 days? Could you run a 6-man rotation with Hader scheduled to pitch 2-3 innings after the #2 and #5 guys, or some variation on that theme?

 

The problem with that kind of thing of course is that games can be very different. The starter might be having a great day and be on a really low pitch count late in the game so Hader doesn't get in the game. Or it may be a blowout. Or some severe platoon splits you want to exploit. So how consistently can you stick to such a schedule and have an even workload? And how much do you value micro-managing each individual game over optimizing workload and maximizing innings? I mean in the playoffs the balance is definitely 100% in favour of the first option, but should it always be so in the regular season? It's at least worth questioning the conventional wisdom; it might very well stand up to that questioning and prove to be the optimal way, but you need to ask the question to make sure.

 

I think the usage of both long relievers in general, and the "fireman" usage of Miller/Hader and others is an area where there's still a lot to be gained. And finding ways to get more innings out of your top relievers, making the most out of converted starters who don't have the stuff or stamina to go 6+ innings, but can regularly go 3-4, and just generally trying to get your best pitchers as many innings as possible in a way that doesn't increase injury risk.

 

tl;dr: Give him every chance to start. If not, be creative in giving him more innings than a typical reliever.

 

I would love to see Hader start a piggyback with T. Williams after. I can't imagine being an opposing hitter and seeing the filth coming from both sides during the game. Throw K. Medeirois in for the save to really confuse everyone.

 

If you are going for pure confusion, need to put Suter in there somewhere. Imagine trying to hit 86 with offspeed in the 70s after seeing 95-99 for 8 innings?

[adambr2]

I agree. I think he'll need to improve his secondary pitches to reach his ceiling. Can he do that? Sure, maybe eventually, or maybe he'll be a career reliever in the Andrew Miller mold. But the vision some people have of him being a dominant Chris Sale 200 inning guy, it's just not going to happen right off the bat in 2018. They'll need to watch his innings, and there will be some growing pains. And the pen will certainly suffer from not having him in it for those crucial late high leverage innings.

 

This is certainly a nice argument to have. A few years ago, it would have been no question that Hader would be starting, because the team simply wouldn't even be close to having better options. And I won't argue that he was downright dominant as a reliever. My argument is simply where he's going to provide the most value, and looking at it very simplistic, quality starting pitching is always more valuable than quality relief pitching.

 

Is it, though? I mean if you have a Chris Sale type, then yeah of course, but I think that's far too optimistic of an immediate projection for Hader. Realistically, he's probably capped around 150 innings next year.

 

So which is more valuable, 80 high leverage innings of a 2.00 ERA guy, or 150 starter innings of a 3.00-3.25 ERA guy? I'm honestly curious and think it's a good topic of discussion. I really don't know the answer.

 

I do know our pen with and without Hader in 2017 was a night and day difference, and we don't have anyone currently to replace the role he provided.

[KeithStone53151]

I agree. I think he'll need to improve his secondary pitches to reach his ceiling. Can he do that? Sure, maybe eventually, or maybe he'll be a career reliever in the Andrew Miller mold. But the vision some people have of him being a dominant Chris Sale 200 inning guy, it's just not going to happen right off the bat in 2018. They'll need to watch his innings, and there will be some growing pains. And the pen will certainly suffer from not having him in it for those crucial late high leverage innings.

 

This is certainly a nice argument to have. A few years ago, it would have been no question that Hader would be starting, because the team simply wouldn't even be close to having better options. And I won't argue that he was downright dominant as a reliever. My argument is simply where he's going to provide the most value, and looking at it very simplistic, quality starting pitching is always more valuable than quality relief pitching.

 

Is it, though? I mean if you have a Chris Sale type, then yeah of course, but I think that's far too optimistic of an immediate projection for Hader. Realistically, he's probably capped around 150 innings next year.

 

So which is more valuable, 80 high leverage innings of a 2.00 ERA guy, or 150 starter innings of a 3.00-3.25 ERA guy? I'm honestly curious and think it's a good topic of discussion. I really don't know the answer.

 

I do know our pen with and without Hader in 2017 was a night and day difference, and we don't have anyone currently to replace the role he provided.

 

Hader in the rotation would absolutely mean we need massive upgrades in the pen, but that's something we should be upgrading regardless. I think most on here are in agreement on adding at least 1 high end arm to the pen, I personally want 2 high end arms and a solid lefty.

 

Back on topic, if I knew I was getting 150 starter innings at that ERA...it's not even a question in my mind that you take the starter innings. I think most on this board would agree. 150 starter innings at that ERA at age 24, he'd likely build on that and push towards the 180-190 range the following year. At that point you're looking at a budding star SP. Let's look at it from an acquisition perspective. Would teams give up more for a low 3s ERA SP at age 24 with electric stuff and 5 years of team control(assume after this year) or for a low 2s ERA LH relief pitcher that can go multiple innings, has electric stuff, and 5 years team control. Both have a ton of value, I'm taking the SP and not thinking twice about it.

 

Those on the board that want Hader in the pen probably don't find it likely that he posts a low 3s ERA in the rotation. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong on that.

[DR28]

Would love to know the names here...

 

Brewers GM David Stearns told reporters (including Haudricourt and MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) that the team is waiting to hear on offers it has extended to multiple free agents. Pitching is Milwaukee’s focus this winter, so Haudricourt assumes that the Brewers have made offers to at least a few arms. Stearns also added that the Brew Crew are willing to explore both signings and trades, and talks continue on the latter front.

[nate82]

 

So which is more valuable, 80 high leverage innings of a 2.00 ERA guy, or 150 starter innings of a 3.00-3.25 ERA guy? I'm honestly curious and think it's a good topic of discussion. I really don't know the answer.

 

For the Brewers the 150 starter innings of a 3.00-3.25 ERA guy is worth more as Starters in general get paid more and over a longer period of time than relievers do. A 3.00-3.25 ERA guy in free agency is going to cost you about $10-15m a year. I would rather get two relievers on the free agent market for the price of one starter and at a shorter contract length.