2018 Starting Rotation

[monty57]

I wouldn't mind Archer... But he's gonna cost a TON.

 

Agree. He'd look good in our rotation, but is it worth Brinson plus some other good prospects to get him?

[KeithStone53151]

I wouldn't mind Archer... But he's gonna cost a TON.

 

Agree. He'd look good in our rotation, but is it worth Brinson plus some other good prospects to get him?

 

We're at that fun part of the off season where things could happen at any moment. We might find out in the next couple days whether acquiring Archer is realistic or not. At this point, I don't care to speculate too much...just want to see what happens. In Stearns I trust.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't get why it bothers some people so much. Whether I've agreed or disagreed with him, I think Briggs has added a lot to this site over the years, and the bothersome thing to me is that every time he posts other posters feel the need to derail the thread with responses that add nothing to the conversation.

 

Let's please try to keep this on topic.

 

 

You are right. This post is about the prospective 2018 starting rotation. Not debating the merits of Scooter Gennett and Khris Davis for the upteenth time.

 

As for Archer, it depends on if Sterns feels the team is on the cusp of being a contender, or if last year's record was largely smoke and mirrors with a bunch of average players playing over their heads. I guess I would say with most of the team's stalwarts being on the young side, the foundation is there to be a contender for the next 4-5 years. The team built their farm system with the goal of getting to this point, so now would be the time to strike. I think the team can trade off 3-4 of their top prospects, and still have a deep system, especially when you take into account the high-upside pitchers coming off injury (Hauser, Williams, Kirby and Bickford) and the high tool athletic hitters who came into their own this season (Harrison and Gatewood).

 

With that said, though, I would be targeting players that are controllable for the next several years, rather than one-year rental guys.

[Humans Need Water]

Well the stearns track record is pretty amazing. Feliz scooter are the minor blemishes. Some will say the pen last year but some here believe the success caught the fo off guard... as in earlier than expected and the pen wasn't a priority. Keep wheeling and dealing and see what else sticks.

 

Waiving Scooter who would go on to hit 27 HR and knock in 97 runs in under 500 AB was not a "minor blemish". It cost them a playoff berth. But worse was getting 2 nondescript minor leaguers for a guy who would go on to do something no Brewer hitter in history has done, that is hit 40+ HR in back to back seasons. I'm speaking of Krush Davis. It's not that he traded Davis. Eventually that was going to happen. But he jumped the gun and settled for minimal return. Davis was clearly blossoming as a premier power bat at the end of 2015. He just hadn't put it together over a full season due to an injury earlier that year.

 

Stearns has done a lot of good things, but he severely mis-evaluated two players who were already here when he arrived.

Are you referring to this same Khrush Davis?

 

"Highly unlikely #Athletics will move Khris Davis. Opened up DH spot for him by trading Healy. Team’s payroll low enough to carry Davis’ $10M-$11M arb number, and return for DH type would be limited" - Ken Rosenthal this morning

 

And this is *after* his back-to-back 40HR seasons. You're right, Stearns really should have kept him because the return 2yrs later absolutely sounds like it would have been better than a Top 100 catcher and talented future pen arm who was a 6th rd pick #psyche

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't get why it bothers some people so much. Whether I've agreed or disagreed with him, I think Briggs has added a lot to this site over the years, and the bothersome thing to me is that every time he posts other posters feel the need to derail the thread with responses that add nothing to the conversation.

 

Let's please try to keep this on topic.

 

With all due respect, bringing up Scooter and Khrush Davis in a starting pitching thread is what took this off topic. And it's said over in over again in topics that have nothing to do with them. THAT'S what I think bothers a lot of people. Some of us have learned getting a reaction is exactly what he wants, so best not to play along.

 

So, back to starting pitching. One thing I keep seeing is "Hader is penciled in" to the rotation- or various versions of this. But I don't think even the Brewers know for sure if that's the route they're going to go. They haven't said or even hinted at it publicly, and I think that's because they honestly don't know yet.

[DR28]

We're talking with the Mets about Matt Harvey.

[KeithStone53151]

We're talking with the Mets about Matt Harvey.

 

I'd prefer to aim higher, but Harvey could bounce back with a change of scenery and fits the short term contract situation we are looking for. Also since he's in arbitration, his contract wouldn't be guaranteed and he could be cut in camp. Wouldn't be the worst guy to trade for assuming the prospect cost would be minimal.

[reillymcshane]

Please, please, please, could people just stop the Scooter and Davis back and forth? It does nothing for this board to have this discussion brought up over and over. Threads get derailed, people get angry. It does nothing for us in the end.

 

Don't make jokes about it.

 

Don't make sarcastic replies to it.

 

Don't allude to it.

 

Don't make comments or barbs or whatever about the people who post stuff about it.

 

Don't reply to it. Replying to these kinds of things is what hijacks a thread. It's exactly what some people want. Deny them the pleasure. IGNORE IT. Block the poster.

 

Or if you're so compelled, just politely point out that the thread has nothing to do with Scooter Gennett or whoever else has been twisted into the conversation.

 

Also, if you feel that it is relevant to the discussion and want to say something about Scooter or Davis or whomever - please keep your comments to the point - and don't just repeat the same old stuff that's been brought up over and over. Anyone who brings up those trades knows what you're dealing with - so understand you're playing with fire every time you do so. If you bring up those guys just to grind an axe or vent your frustration - you're doing a disservice to yourself and your fellow board members. You know exactly what kind of response it's going to elicit - so try be thoughtful if the topic is to be broached.

 

It's very important to understand that no one is asking people to NOT talk about Gennett or Davis. Because, in all honesty, there are times that those trades are relevant to a discussion. It's keeping the discussion on target and thoughtful and helpful that is what is important.

 

Thank you.

[Boomer5]

Hader absolutely should not be in the rotation. He doesn't have the repertoire to be a starter and his pitch count would mean he would be highly inefficient in that role. He is on the verge of being a super elite reliever and in 2018 that means far more impact than a 5 inning starter over the course of 162 games.

[Boomer5]

We're talking with the Mets about Matt Harvey.

 

He is the opposite of Stearns "young controllable talent " strategy. Which, FYI, is everyone's strategy in the history of pro sports.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Hader absolutely should not be in the rotation. He doesn't have the repertoire to be a starter and his pitch count would mean he would be highly inefficient in that role. He is on the verge of being a super elite reliever and in 2018 that means far more impact than a 5 inning starter over the course of 162 games.

 

I disagree. The team does not have the starting pitching depth to justify keeping what is probably their most talented arm in the pen. Having Hader in the pen isn't going to matter if you don't have the starters to get to him. If they acquire a couple good starters, then you can make the argument that Hader should stay in the pen.

[adambr2]

Given what the market for relievers has been so far, I can see Stearns shying away. That's not to say he won't sign anyone, but he's too smart to get heavily involved in an overpriced market.

 

So with the way the off-season is unfolding, I think it's entirely possible that Hader stays in the pen for next year and we strongly pursue a trade for Archer. Then perhaps one move for the pen to retain Swarzek. That gives us our 2nd half pen from 2017 which was a very good one. We'd have a rotation of Archer/Anderson/Davies/Woodruff and eventually Nelson, hopefully. That would not be a bad way to go and would give us a very strong pitching staff late in the season especially if Nelson returns to form.

[TJseven7]

Hader absolutely should not be in the rotation. He doesn't have the repertoire to be a starter and his pitch count would mean he would be highly inefficient in that role. He is on the verge of being a super elite reliever and in 2018 that means far more impact than a 5 inning starter over the course of 162 games.

 

I disagree. The team does not have the starting pitching depth to justify keeping what is probably their most talented arm in the pen. Having Hader in the pen isn't going to matter if you don't have the starters to get to him. If they acquire a couple good starters, then you can make the argument that Hader should stay in the pen.

 

Can you have 1 dominating pitch and nothing else and truly be the most talented? He has the biggest upside but if he doesn't develop his secondary stuff to get some strikes out of it he's not going to be more valuable in the rotation than he is in the pen. I dont think his issues allow him to be a productive starter as is and I dont think those issues require him to start to improve. So I'm with the other guy that sees no reason for him to start yet.

 

He could come out this year and dominate. His secondary stuff could become useful and his pitches per inning could drop in his work in the pen and if that happens... next year he's gets a rotation slot. But a fastball, as nasty as his is, is still not enough to start and go 6-7ip.

[adambr2]

Hader absolutely should not be in the rotation. He doesn't have the repertoire to be a starter and his pitch count would mean he would be highly inefficient in that role. He is on the verge of being a super elite reliever and in 2018 that means far more impact than a 5 inning starter over the course of 162 games.

 

I disagree. The team does not have the starting pitching depth to justify keeping what is probably their most talented arm in the pen. Having Hader in the pen isn't going to matter if you don't have the starters to get to him. If they acquire a couple good starters, then you can make the argument that Hader should stay in the pen.

 

Can you have 1 dominating pitch and nothing else and truly be the most talented? He has the biggest upside but if he doesn't develop his secondary stuff to get some strikes out of it he's not going to be more valuable in the rotation than he is in the pen. I dont think his issues allow him to be a productive starter as is and I dont think those issues require him to start to improve. So I'm with the other guy that sees no reason for him to start yet.

 

He could come out this year and dominate. His secondary stuff could become useful and his pitches per inning could drop in his work in the pen and if that happens... next year he's gets a rotation slot. But a fastball, as nasty as his is, is still not enough to start and go 6-7ip.

 

I agree. I think he'll need to improve his secondary pitches to reach his ceiling. Can he do that? Sure, maybe eventually, or maybe he'll be a career reliever in the Andrew Miller mold. But the vision some people have of him being a dominant Chris Sale 200 inning guy, it's just not going to happen right off the bat in 2018. They'll need to watch his innings, and there will be some growing pains. And the pen will certainly suffer from not having him in it for those crucial late high leverage innings.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I agree. I think he'll need to improve his secondary pitches to reach his ceiling. Can he do that? Sure, maybe eventually, or maybe he'll be a career reliever in the Andrew Miller mold. But the vision some people have of him being a dominant Chris Sale 200 inning guy, it's just not going to happen right off the bat in 2018. They'll need to watch his innings, and there will be some growing pains. And the pen will certainly suffer from not having him in it for those crucial late high leverage innings.

 

This is certainly a nice argument to have. A few years ago, it would have been no question that Hader would be starting, because the team simply wouldn't even be close to having better options. And I won't argue that he was downright dominant as a reliever. My argument is simply where he's going to provide the most value, and looking at it very simplistic, quality starting pitching is always more valuable than quality relief pitching.

[coolhandluke121]

I don't really like Archer. Not gonna pretend I've seen a lot of him, but it just never seems like a hitter should be scared to face him or anything. I always got that feeling that the offense would break through eventually against him. It's not like, say, Jimmy Nelson, who just needed better command and strategy but had the stuff to flat-out shut teams down.

 

Obviously they should look to trade their glut of young outfielders for starting pitcher, but don't force it if it's not available. I would put Archer in the "force" category. It would remind me of Herb Kohl saying "get me the best 20 ppg scorer who's available right now for the assets we have to offer", which I suspect is the kind of thing he pushed for. I'd be fine with trading Brinson or Santana but get the best value regardless of position. The team could use upgrade in other areas as well.

[Boomer5]

Hader absolutely should not be in the rotation. He doesn't have the repertoire to be a starter and his pitch count would mean he would be highly inefficient in that role. He is on the verge of being a super elite reliever and in 2018 that means far more impact than a 5 inning starter over the course of 162 games.

 

I disagree. The team does not have the starting pitching depth to justify keeping what is probably their most talented arm in the pen. Having Hader in the pen isn't going to matter if you don't have the starters to get to him. If they acquire a couple good starters, then you can make the argument that Hader should stay in the pen.

 

Just because the team does not have starting pitching does not mean Hader is a starter anymore than Andrew Miller should start in Cleveland if they lose Kluber.

 

Hader does not have the secondary stuff nor the efficiency to be a MLB starter. He is already on the verge of being one of the best relievers in the game. This is 2018 where relievers that can go 2 innings 60 games a year are the most valuable. Making him a starter is such old school thinking.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Hader absolutely should not be in the rotation. He doesn't have the repertoire to be a starter and his pitch count would mean he would be highly inefficient in that role. He is on the verge of being a super elite reliever and in 2018 that means far more impact than a 5 inning starter over the course of 162 games.

 

I disagree. The team does not have the starting pitching depth to justify keeping what is probably their most talented arm in the pen. Having Hader in the pen isn't going to matter if you don't have the starters to get to him. If they acquire a couple good starters, then you can make the argument that Hader should stay in the pen.

 

Just because the team does not have starting pitching does not mean Hader is a starter anymore than Andrew Miller should start in Cleveland if they lose Kluber.

 

Hader does not have the secondary stuff nor the efficiency to be a MLB starter. He is already on the verge of being one of the best relievers in the game. This is 2018 where relievers that can go 2 innings 60 games a year are the most valuable. Making him a starter is such old school thinking.

 

Why not throw him in the rotation to start the year? If he isn't effective, he can go back to the pen. If they are saying Nelson will be throwing by Spring Training, perhaps Hader can be a bridge starter until Nelson returns? I know, best case scenario. I just feel that effective starters have infinitely more value than relievers. Even a league-average young starter is going to have more value than a shut-down reliever, unless that reliever is a closer. Yes, that way of thinking is old school, and the stance has softened in the past few years, but that is still the case.

 

Of course, I always thought that the team should have shifted Will Smith to the rotation, too. I guess I'm old school.

[coolhandluke121]

Sometimes I ask, would the other team be glad we're doing this? I think teams would love it if the Brewers started Hader and didn't have him available for match-ups and multiple outings each week, just like Ohio State loved it when UW kept trying to establish the running game even though that played right into OSU's strengths.

[pacopete4]

Sometimes I ask, would the other team be glad we're doing this? I think teams would love it if the Brewers started Hader and didn't have him available for match-ups and multiple outings each week, just like Ohio State loved it when UW kept trying to establish the running game even though that played right into OSU's strengths.

 

Oh, my. What?

[monty57]

My concern with keeping Hader in the pen is mainly that he has never built up innings. If he starts 2018 in the rotation and is skipped every so often or moved to the pen/shut down later in the season, he could get around 150 innings and be set up to be a full-load starter by 2019. He will not get enough innings out of the pen, so if they wanted to convert him to a starter in the future he would be limited for a season and by the time he'd be ready to pitch a full season he could already be into his arby years.

 

Plus, he's proven that he can dominate in the pen using almost exclusively his fastball. Those who would like to see him improve his secondary pitches probably won't get the chance if he isn't forced to use them. He has what could be a dominant slider and a good enough change to keep hitters off guard. It's kind of a Catch 22, but as a starter he will have to use these pitches more. That may mean they get hit a little more until they develop, but they may never fully develop unless he's forced to use them.

 

If the Brewers don't think he'll develop enough to be an effective starter, then they should probably leave him in the pen. If they think he has the ability to be an effective starter and just needs some development, he should be in the rotation.

[KeithStone53151]

Hader absolutely should not be in the rotation. He doesn't have the repertoire to be a starter and his pitch count would mean he would be highly inefficient in that role. He is on the verge of being a super elite reliever and in 2018 that means far more impact than a 5 inning starter over the course of 162 games.

 

I disagree. The team does not have the starting pitching depth to justify keeping what is probably their most talented arm in the pen. Having Hader in the pen isn't going to matter if you don't have the starters to get to him. If they acquire a couple good starters, then you can make the argument that Hader should stay in the pen.

 

Can you have 1 dominating pitch and nothing else and truly be the most talented? He has the biggest upside but if he doesn't develop his secondary stuff to get some strikes out of it he's not going to be more valuable in the rotation than he is in the pen. I dont think his issues allow him to be a productive starter as is and I dont think those issues require him to start to improve. So I'm with the other guy that sees no reason for him to start yet.

 

He could come out this year and dominate. His secondary stuff could become useful and his pitches per inning could drop in his work in the pen and if that happens... next year he's gets a rotation slot. But a fastball, as nasty as his is, is still not enough to start and go 6-7ip.

 

It seems like every month or so the anti-hader bandwagon starts back up again, I explain why the Hader haters are blatantly wrong in their assessment of him, and it gets ignored until the same tired arguments pop back up. "He only has one pitch", and "he has no command", and "his innings limit". Anyone who says Hader has one dominating pitch and nothing else must have never watched him pitch, read a scouting report, or done anything other than look at the % of pitches he threw on fangraphs in a bullpen role. He has the big fastball, but he got plenty of swings and missed with his offspeed offerings...and was much better at throwing them where he wanted as he settled into his role. Every prospect grades site said his slider was a plus pitch and his changeup has been improving significantly prior to him graduating. And the primary reason he threw so many fastballs is because guys could not catch up. If the hitter at the plate proves he can't catch up to your fastball, do you throw offspeed and make it easier for him? Look up some other top notch starting pitchers(Kershaw/Verlander/Strasburg) on fangraphs, their first few seasons they threw a pretty high number of fastballs(some in the 70% range). Later in their careers they got more comfortable with their offspeed and threw the fastball less.

 

Hader won't be a 2's ERA guy out of the rotation right away, but I think he'll be better than most of you think. I'm more concerned about his ability to maintain his stuff late into starts and potential innings limits(though this can be easily dealt with). I'm not at all concerned about whether his offspeed stuff is any good or about him improving control. His offspeed stuff is very very good, and his control has improved significantly in his short time in the majors and should only get better. I think the expectations for him are a bit unrealistic. Again, look at the guys I referenced above. None of them were finished products at age 23. They finished developing at the major league level and became stars. Hader is the only guy in the system with that type of ceiling...might be the only pitcher we've had in the system with this type of ceiling since Sheets, and many of you want to tank his value and throw him in a bullpen role.

 

I personally think the Brewers already know they plan to use Hader as a starter next season unless a couple big time starters fall into their laps at reasonable prices(which is highly unlikely). I think they aren't telling anyone in case that happens, and also because they don't really need to. Maybe it helps them with negotiations having Hader as a potential pen option, even though he really isn't. The Brewers intentions are mere speculation on my part, I have nothing to back that.

[coolhandluke121]

Sometimes I ask, would the other team be glad we're doing this? I think teams would love it if the Brewers started Hader and didn't have him available for match-ups and multiple outings each week, just like Ohio State loved it when UW kept trying to establish the running game even though that played right into OSU's strengths.

 

Oh, my. What?

 

That's some solid analysis right there.

 

You'd be doing teams a favor by starting Hader. His stuff wouldn't be so lethal the 2nd or 3rd time you saw him in a game. He'd also face tons of rhb's. Very few teams lack for rhb's and it's the easier side of a platoon to fill. They'd be lining up their rhb's for Hader's starts. It would be a waste of what makes him great.

[KeithStone53151]

Sometimes I ask, would the other team be glad we're doing this? I think teams would love it if the Brewers started Hader and didn't have him available for match-ups and multiple outings each week, just like Ohio State loved it when UW kept trying to establish the running game even though that played right into OSU's strengths.

 

Oh, my. What?

 

That's some solid analysis right there.

 

You'd be doing teams a favor by starting Hader. His stuff wouldn't be so lethal the 2nd or 3rd time you saw him in a game. He'd also face tons of rhb's. Very few teams lack for rhb's and it's the easier side of a platoon to fill. They'd be lining up their rhb's for Hader's starts. It would be a waste of what makes him great.

 

So Hader is a situational lefty now?

[pacopete4]

Sometimes I ask, would the other team be glad we're doing this? I think teams would love it if the Brewers started Hader and didn't have him available for match-ups and multiple outings each week, just like Ohio State loved it when UW kept trying to establish the running game even though that played right into OSU's strengths.

 

Oh, my. What?

 

That's some solid analysis right there.

 

You'd be doing teams a favor by starting Hader. His stuff wouldn't be so lethal the 2nd or 3rd time you saw him in a game. He'd also face tons of rhb's. Very few teams lack for rhb's and it's the easier side of a platoon to fill. They'd be lining up their rhb's for Hader's starts. It would be a waste of what makes him great.

 

This would have played better in my mind had you not tried to compare it to the Badgers going in with the gameplan of dropping Hornibrook back 50 times because they were stacking against the run lol.

 

I disagree with it. I think you let your special arms like Hader try to be as dominant for as long as they possibly can in a game. Being a starter, he can do that. I'm in the camp that believes he's our best chance, in a long.. long time, to actually produce TOR numbers. We've waited so long to have an arm as special as his and for us to limit him at the age that he is at just makes no sense to me. Could be looking at the next Randy Johnson. And if that fails(in 2-3 years), then stick him back in the pen and use him there.