2018 Starting Rotation

[bill hAll Star]

It would be a great thing. Considering how little they have invested in him, that would be a huge win. Doug Davis is a terrific #5 starter for a team that lost an ace to injury and has to be careful about free agency.

 

Another small but noteworthy factor is Suter's glove and bat. That adds up over the course of a season, and the Brewers should be able to have enough long relievers to limit Suter to ~5 IP per start.

 

Eh, I just can't wrap my head around why we would want Suter to pan out to be a mid 4's ERA guy with a 1.5 WHIP, walking over 4 batters.

 

There were a couple outlier seasons in there for Davis but he really wasn't good. We might as well resign Wily Peralta if that were the case.

 

 

But at what age did Davis have those outlier years, and how old is Suter now? It's no fluke. Age 27 and 28 are overwhelmingly the most likely ages to have your career peak. I'm not suggesting a 5-year extension but considering what he did last year, I think it would be incredibly foolish to not give him a chance to be that kind of pitcher for another year or two. I stand by what I said because I think there's a great chance he has a Doug Davis prime while they wait for Burnes and Nelson.

 

Check out what Wily Peralta did at age 27 and 28.

 

I agree with your super bullpen plan and I think the Brewers will attempt to improve it, but I doubt that Stearns goes fully into the heavy bullpen plan you've laid out. Friedman seems to be one of the few that is willing to get close to it. Maybe Cashman as well.

 

With that being known, that we are willing to use the bullpen but not to the extent that you are suggesting, I hope that Suter is our 7th option as a starting pitcher. There's a chance he can flame out as a starter as the league figures him out, and then we're down to Junior Guerra or Jungmann as starters with probably needing a heavy bullpen presence with them.

 

The best teams in the league still had 5 well above replacement starters and the loaded bullpen. I'm not confident that Suter will be. I understand that maybe if he's normally capped at 4 innings that maybe he could be, but I'd rather have another option in the mix.

[coolhandluke121]

 

 

Check out what Wily Peralta did at age 27 and 28.

 

...

 

The best teams in the league still had 5 well above replacement starters and the loaded bullpen. I'm not confident that Suter will be. I understand that maybe if he's normally capped at 4 innings that maybe he could be, but I'd rather have another option in the mix.

 

It all comes down to what you think of a player. I thought there were some issues with Wily from the get-go, even when he was pitching well. Body language was terrible, no resilience or ability to handle adversity. Suter strikes me as the opposite, a guy with less talent who will adjust really well to expectations and a demanding professional life. I wouldn't advocate for him just based on his numbers last year. It's more than that.

 

Yeah, there's a chance some guys bomb and they end up using Wilkerson, Jungmann, and Guerra. I can live with that. The odds of winning 86 again aren't great anyway. I'm okay with upgrades too, but there are certain regression candidates I'd like to give a chance next season even if it's against conventional wisdom or fangraph projections. Sogard, Villar, Broxton, and Suter are examples of guys who could be good next year, and I'd like to give them a chance because you've then got the upside of paying so little for a 2-3 WAR player, not to mention possibly developing a trade asset.

[bill hAll Star]

 

 

Check out what Wily Peralta did at age 27 and 28.

 

...

 

The best teams in the league still had 5 well above replacement starters and the loaded bullpen. I'm not confident that Suter will be. I understand that maybe if he's normally capped at 4 innings that maybe he could be, but I'd rather have another option in the mix.

 

It all comes down to what you think of a player. I thought there were some issues with Wily from the get-go, even when he was pitching well. Body language was terrible, no resilience or ability to handle adversity. Suter strikes me as the opposite, a guy with less talent who will adjust really well to expectations and a demanding professional life. I wouldn't advocate for him just based on his numbers last year. It's more than that.

 

Yeah, there's a chance some guys bomb and they end up using Wilkerson, Jungmann, and Guerra. I can live with that. The odds of winning 86 again aren't great anyway. I'm okay with upgrades too, but there are certain regression candidates I'd like to give a chance next season even if it's against conventional wisdom or fangraph projections. Sogard, Villar, Broxton, and Suter are examples of guys who could be good next year, and I'd like to give them a chance because you've then got the upside of paying so little for a 2-3 WAR player, not to mention possibly developing a trade asset.

 

I guess my issue with your below paragraph is a good, yet also bad thing built by Stearns. He built this roster without tanking and from not a ton to trade away.

 

Here we are with likely a good pipeline of solid depth behind a bunch of late prime players with 3, maybe 4 years left on their deals.

 

I'm OK with one more wait-and-see year, but I think that we'll basically be churning out the exact same base roster every single year for the next 5-10 years if we just stay the course.

 

There is a slight reboot period in 2020/2021 where 75% of our contributors right now will either be past their prime, impeding free agents, or both. That's why I wouldn't mind spending now on Lynn, Arrieta, someone like that. You may be saying the same thing but just keeping Suter and spending big on the bullpen.

 

So I guess is that if we don't spend on another starter or go heavy bullpen spending as you say, we'll "figure more stuff out" this year about our young guys...but the clock will tick one notch further towards the exodus of our prime contributors in 2020 or 2021. Now, a good organization will trade and plan through that, but I guess once we have all of our answers in 2019 or 2020 if we wait, we'll suddenly have to reshape the entire roster a year later.

[brewmann04]

i have to think DS will add and arm and would not mind seeing CC back and a trade option

[DR28]

Stearns said Hader's role will be determined with how the offseason unfolds.

[adambr2]

Stearns said Hader's role will be determined with how the offseason unfolds.

 

Not surprised. I understand why people want to see him in the rotation, but I don't know why some people think it's a foregone conclusion.

[coolhandluke121]

 

I have been clamoring for this forever. This is an innovation that is long overdue. The evidence about starters going 3 times through the order is overwhelming, and has been as long as analytics have been a thing. Furthermore, relievers are under-utilized. The balance between starter IP's and reliever IP's is extreme. You couldn't get as many games of out relievers if you used them in long relief, but you could get more innings out of them. You'd just have to plan more carefully. Current orthopraxy is too obsessed with using relievers to micromanage matchups, which doesn't outweigh the importance of avoiding that last time through the order, not to mention having one less pa from your starting pitcher.

 

The downside would be having to rest relievers more days, but it solves more problems than it creates. Heck, you might even be able to use just 4 starters regularly if you have enough relievers with options, mind your off-days, and use long relievers more. Another issue is that if your first long reliever bombs, you're in some trouble, but you're in trouble when a starter bombs anyway. We've seen this work in the playoffs so I don't understand why nobody has had the guts to try it. I know you don't get as many rest days in the regular season, but you can also cycle through more relievers during the regular season, whereas you're trying to stick with your 4-5 best relievers in the playoffs.

 

Ironically, it would also allow you to micromanage matchups a little more in some cases. For example, if you have lhp long relievers and a team started all their lhb's against your rhp, you can pull your starter before his second pa and all of a sudden you've created a big matchup headache for the other manager. You can even plan to have your long relievers rested according to the rhb vs. lhb splits of the lineups you'll be facing in a given series, macro-managing those matchups instead of micro-managing them. I always thought it was incredibly weird to have lhp starters and then be stuck starting them against a dominant rhb lineup just because it was their turn in the rotation.

 

Just get more innings out of relievers and stop putting starters through the order 3 times so often. The stats are pretty convincing. This notion that a starter is "rolling" so you can't pull him is stupid. Chances are pretty good that he'll stop "rolling" when he gets to the top of the order for the 3rd time - not to mention the fact that you probably wasted another pa to keep him in the game that long.

 

This just isn't tenable in today's game. First off you are making it so that in probably half the games the starter can only get a loss or ND, even if they are pitching well.

 

Second this limits roster flexibility. 4 starters, 5 long relievers, 1 closer and 3 others, assuming a 13 man staff.

 

Third this ignores the dynamics of the game, particularly in the NL. What do you do in the 6th or 7th inning when the pitchers spot comes up? If you pinch hit, you now basically are reverting back to 1-2 inning relief pitchers,

 

1. Who cares how they feel about it? Once it catches on, everyone will realize you get paid for how much you can pitch and how well. You're seriously over-estimating what wins mean these day. Lots of pitchers will actually get much better opportunities if teams stop going with the sheep and give their relievers more of the innings. Starters will get paid based on whether they can adjust to pitching every 3 or 4 days depending on how many pitches they threw last start.

 

2. There's no reason you'd need more pitchers for this. You just need to worry about a) innings, and b) outings. They make it work with 12 pitchers now and it's not adding any extra work, period. I would absolutely argue that they're wasting a lot of possible innings from relievers right now by giving them so many outings. Cut their outings and increase their innings per outing. Relievers should be able pitch more innings. I'm sure it's all a complicated non-linear relationship between usage and injuries, but there's no reason to just assume that the current m.o. is somehow the correct one. It could just be a huge case of groupthink. We've seen that PLENTY of times before in baseball.

 

3. There's no "closers" anymore. You can pitch 2 innings without the pitcher's spot coming up again. Whoever has the matchups or is rested gets the call.

 

The bottom line is that the obsession with saves and late inning micro-managing has gone way too far. They're wasting a lot of possible innings from some of their best arms. Someone is going to realize that and change it, and if they have the talent, they're going to be successful. Runs count the same no matter what inning they're scored. The idea of always saving your leverage for the end of games has always been kind of stupid. They're wasting good arms that should easily be able to go one time through the order.

 

Take 4 relievers over the course of 4 games. It would be much better to have them each pitch 3 innings once (12 combined ip's) than regularly have them pitch 1 inning on 3 out of those 4 days (still 12 total). Sure, you might have one of them bomb and have to use someone else. Then you'd be in trouble. But you're in trouble when someone bombs anyway. And honestly, after 3 innings, that reliever could still pitch 3 days later.

 

I am almost certain someone is going to try more of this soon and I look forward to it. They're seeing how it works in the playoffs and in September and realizing what getting more out of your pen can do for your team.

[DR28]

If Jake is our only starter added then I hope Hader is moved into rotation.

 

Arrieta

Anderson

Hader

Davies

Woodruff

 

Thats a playoff rotation!

 

Then go after 2nd tier guys to fill out the pen... Swarzak, Watson, Shaw, etc

[liveforoctober]

If we are trying to compare the two, I will say one way Suter is not like Doug Davis ... Start a stopwatch and Suter will have thrown 4 pitches by the time Davis is winding up for his second.

 

Doug Davis might have been the slowest worker I've ever seen. I dreaded his starts for that reason alone.

[trwi7]

If Jake is our only starter added then I hope Hader is moved into rotation.

 

Arrieta

Anderson

Hader

Davies

Woodruff

 

Thats a playoff rotation!

 

It is if Arrieta and Anderson don't decline, Woodruff improves and Hader can manage to not go 5 innings walking 6 guys every other turn.

[MNBrew]

If Jake is our only starter added then I hope Hader is moved into rotation.

 

Arrieta

Anderson

Hader

Davies

Woodruff

 

Thats a playoff rotation!

 

It is if Arrieta and Anderson don't decline, Woodruff improves and Hader can manage to not go 5 innings walking 6 guys every other turn.

If, if, if, if, if. . . . I love how the pessimists here expect regression at every possible turn for the Brewers, but somehow little if any time is spent considering that the Brewers could be the beneficiaries of the same regression occurring on other (potentially) contending teams.

 

Okay, trwi7, on some level you're right, that that rotation could go seriously downhill. . . . However, until we get to the season and until we see how they're actually pitching (and are supported by the bats and gloves of the rest of the team), BestInTheWorld has as much of a chance of being correct as you do.

 

The pessimist game does involve viable & logical thought processes, but it can be more than frustrating to follow because no argument in response is ever perceived as good enough to dissuade the naysayers. As someone has said regarding debate, it's hard to disprove a negative.

 

To the original topic, I don't have a clue what move(s) Stearns might actually pull off, but his track record suggests there's a decent chance he'll do something pretty positive. To me, whatever that may be represents an exciting possibility. It may well not pan out in the end -- as with any move -- but at the very least he's willing to make a move that has a decent chance of helping out the Brewers this year and very possibly beyond (... "controllable young talent"...).

[TJseven7]

Well the stearns track record is pretty amazing. Feliz scooter are the minor blemishes. Some will say the pen last year but some here believe the success caught the fo off guard... as in earlier than expected and the pen wasn't a priority. Keep wheeling and dealing and see what else sticks.

[Jenkins5]

Well the stearns track record is pretty amazing. Feliz scooter are the minor blemishes. Some will say the pen last year but some here believe the success caught the fo off guard... as in earlier than expected and the pen wasn't a priority. Keep wheeling and dealing and see what else sticks.

 

Remember to insert K. Davis as a mistake or someone will have to remind you about how many homers he hits ha

 

I'm fairly confident DS will continue to make smart trades and signings to improve this team. He has in sort time created pretty impressive track record. Who really knows what he is up to this off-season but he probably has something up his sleeve we will really like. Usually does!

 

My feeling is he will fill rotation that he will keep Hader in pen. From reading all his quotes it just seems that is what they are leaning towards.

[brewmann04]

Pick up a pitcher via trade and FA sounds like a plan

[DR28]

MLB Network keeps bringing up Archer to us, idk if I see that happening.

[JohnBriggs12]

Well the stearns track record is pretty amazing. Feliz scooter are the minor blemishes. Some will say the pen last year but some here believe the success caught the fo off guard... as in earlier than expected and the pen wasn't a priority. Keep wheeling and dealing and see what else sticks.

 

Waiving Scooter who would go on to hit 27 HR and knock in 97 runs in under 500 AB was not a "minor blemish". It cost them a playoff berth. But worse was getting 2 nondescript minor leaguers for a guy who would go on to do something no Brewer hitter in history has done, that is hit 40+ HR in back to back seasons. I'm speaking of Krush Davis. It's not that he traded Davis. Eventually that was going to happen. But he jumped the gun and settled for minimal return. Davis was clearly blossoming as a premier power bat at the end of 2015. He just hadn't put it together over a full season due to an injury earlier that year.

 

Stearns has done a lot of good things, but he severely mis-evaluated two players who were already here when he arrived.

[wallus]

Who's got that beating a dead horse gif again?

[Jenkins5]

Well the stearns track record is pretty amazing. Feliz scooter are the minor blemishes. Some will say the pen last year but some here believe the success caught the fo off guard... as in earlier than expected and the pen wasn't a priority. Keep wheeling and dealing and see what else sticks.

 

Waiving Scooter who would go on to hit 27 HR and knock in 97 runs in under 500 AB was not a "minor blemish". It cost them a playoff berth. But worse was getting 2 nondescript minor leaguers for a guy who would go on to do something no Brewer hitter in history has done, that is hit 40+ HR in back to back seasons. I'm speaking of Krush Davis. It's not that he traded Davis. Eventually that was going to happen. But he jumped the gun and settled for minimal return. Davis was clearly blossoming as a premier power bat at the end of 2015. He just hadn't put it together over a full season due to an injury earlier that year.

 

Stearns has done a lot of good things, but he severely mis-evaluated two players who were already here when he arrived.

 

 

Out of respect to not hijacking the topic I leave it at that.

 

No matter what, if it is Duffy, maybe trading Broxton to get Matt Moore, or any other option. I want them to get a lefty. Have a feeling Hader will be in pen. I think Suter is good swing guy but not a guy who will make our rotation what we want it to be. My mind is just blown that Wolf in 2012 is our last full time lefty starter. That is awful. I know I am biased as a lefty but every team should have some balance in rotation. In perfect world you have two you split every other day. If anyone argues Suter is better than Moore.... understandable but despite his struggles I think he can he still has the natural stuff that once made him an elite prospect and young pitcher for the Rays. Still only 28 and bounce back/ career revival guy. Doubt it is realist anyways

[TJseven7]

Well the stearns track record is pretty amazing. Feliz scooter are the minor blemishes. Some will say the pen last year but some here believe the success caught the fo off guard... as in earlier than expected and the pen wasn't a priority. Keep wheeling and dealing and see what else sticks.

 

Waiving Scooter who would go on to hit 27 HR and knock in 97 runs in under 500 AB was not a "minor blemish". It cost them a playoff berth. But worse was getting 2 nondescript minor leaguers for a guy who would go on to do something no Brewer hitter in history has done, that is hit 40+ HR in back to back seasons. I'm speaking of Krush Davis. It's not that he traded Davis. Eventually that was going to happen. But he jumped the gun and settled for minimal return. Davis was clearly blossoming as a premier power bat at the end of 2015. He just hadn't put it together over a full season due to an injury earlier that year.

 

Stearns has done a lot of good things, but he severely mis-evaluated two players who were already here when he arrived.

 

Premier power bats who hit 247/317 aren't really all that sought. Especially if they cant field a position. You get Davis in RF is no better than Broxton in CF right. 15 more hr... 20 point better ba... same obp. You think broxtons garbage. Why is Khris good? Scooter was given 542 pa at 26 and his numbers were meh. You expected his ba to jump 30 points and his hrs to double? After 3 years of mlb experience? Not to mention cincy spiked his numbers and no one wanted to trade for him... just like carter... and khris he wasn't valued. He was claimed by a garbage team with a hole to fill. You know why? Ho hum defenders who cant get on base aren't valued. Hrs be damned.

 

I get it, you liked them but isn't your reputation worth more to you than your man crush. You are being foolish and looking foolish and I wouldn't tarnish my opinions value over a player crush. I mean this is my first time through with you but im sure people read your take and think.... chicks dig the long ball... briggsy scooter khris homer fan #1... before they even read what you say.

 

But yes back on topic. I'd ideally want 2 starters because long man suter with Fperalta and Hader left to roam the pen makes for a very nasty pen. 1 strong set up man and it gets very deep with guys like jeffress barnes williams houser drake left to fight out 2 spots.

[TJseven7]

While I'm at it... can someone please explain why arrieta is projected at 100/5... lynn at 58/4 and cobb 48/4. 2 coming off 1 year after a lost year. All pitched similar innings. Numbers are extremely similar if you dont look back at arrieta's moster year. He's not the name or have stuff as nasty but the results are very similar so if we do buy 1 why wouldn't cobb be the target?

 

Think i answered it... home road splits make him look hr prone. But why would he allow 60 more hits on the road? Fewer road innings for the career. 15 more hr on the road. Attributed to big home park. Why the 60+ more hits?

[monty57]

While I'm at it... can someone please explain why arrieta is projected at 100/5... lynn at 58/4 and cobb 48/4. 2 coming off 1 year after a lost year. All pitched similar innings. Numbers are extremely similar if you dont look back at arrieta's moster year. He's not the name or have stuff as nasty but the results are very similar so if we do buy 1 why wouldn't cobb be the target?

 

Think i answered it... home road splits make him look hr prone. But why would he allow 60 more hits on the road? Fewer road innings for the career. 15 more hr on the road. Attributed to big home park. Why the 60+ more hits?

 

I'd be pretty surprised if Cobb isn't signed by the Cubs in the next day or two. If/when that happens, they will have filled most of their holes for the next few seasons without breaking the bank or having to trade away from their MLB roster.

 

I agree though, that if we have to sign an expensive FA starter, I'd rather see Lynn on a 3-4 year deal than Arrieta on a 4-5 year deal. If we're going to be stuck overpaying a guy in a few years, I'd rather it be around $13-15M for Lynn rather than $20-25M for Arrieta. If Lynn requires $17M a year as you are stating ($58/4), then I really hope we stay away. He's been solid and probably underrated through his career, but I just get a bad feeling that he's going to be an injury time-bomb, and we could get hurt badly on the signing. He has a lot of mileage on his arm.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well the stearns track record is pretty amazing. Feliz scooter are the minor blemishes. Some will say the pen last year but some here believe the success caught the fo off guard... as in earlier than expected and the pen wasn't a priority. Keep wheeling and dealing and see what else sticks.

 

Waiving Scooter who would go on to hit 27 HR and knock in 97 runs in under 500 AB was not a "minor blemish". It cost them a playoff berth. But worse was getting 2 nondescript minor leaguers for a guy who would go on to do something no Brewer hitter in history has done, that is hit 40+ HR in back to back seasons. I'm speaking of Krush Davis. It's not that he traded Davis. Eventually that was going to happen. But he jumped the gun and settled for minimal return. Davis was clearly blossoming as a premier power bat at the end of 2015. He just hadn't put it together over a full season due to an injury earlier that year.

 

Stearns has done a lot of good things, but he severely mis-evaluated two players who were already here when he arrived.

 

What really does someone need to do on this board to be banned? I mean, this trolling has gone on for months!

[monty57]

Well the stearns track record is pretty amazing. Feliz scooter are the minor blemishes. Some will say the pen last year but some here believe the success caught the fo off guard... as in earlier than expected and the pen wasn't a priority. Keep wheeling and dealing and see what else sticks.

 

Waiving Scooter who would go on to hit 27 HR and knock in 97 runs in under 500 AB was not a "minor blemish". It cost them a playoff berth. But worse was getting 2 nondescript minor leaguers for a guy who would go on to do something no Brewer hitter in history has done, that is hit 40+ HR in back to back seasons. I'm speaking of Krush Davis. It's not that he traded Davis. Eventually that was going to happen. But he jumped the gun and settled for minimal return. Davis was clearly blossoming as a premier power bat at the end of 2015. He just hadn't put it together over a full season due to an injury earlier that year.

 

Stearns has done a lot of good things, but he severely mis-evaluated two players who were already here when he arrived.

 

What really does someone need to do on this board to be banned? I mean, this trolling has gone on for months!

 

I don't get why it bothers some people so much. Whether I've agreed or disagreed with him, I think Briggs has added a lot to this site over the years, and the bothersome thing to me is that every time he posts other posters feel the need to derail the thread with responses that add nothing to the conversation.

 

Let's please try to keep this on topic.

[KeithStone53151]

Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Hader, trade ... our starting rotation for 2018. Hader/Woodruff are moreso penciled in, if they look awful in spring they'll open in AAA. We should have a vet or 2 on a minor league deal with invite to spring just in case. Let a couple of those guys battle with Suter, Wilkerson, Jungmann, Guerra, etc for the potential starter role if someone looks awful in spring.

[DR28]

Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Hader, trade ... our starting rotation for 2018. Hader/Woodruff are moreso penciled in, if they look awful in spring they'll open in AAA. We should have a vet or 2 on a minor league deal with invite to spring just in case. Let a couple of those guys battle with Suter, Wilkerson, Jungmann, Guerra, etc for the potential starter role if someone looks awful in spring.

 

I wouldn't mind Archer... But he's gonna cost a TON.

 

Archer

Anderson

Hader

Davies

Woodruff