2018 Starting Rotation

[pacopete4]

I need to take my mind off of what we are witnessing lately so I was thinking about next season and the (good) problem the Brewers may have.

 

1. Jimmy Nelson

2. Chase Anderson

3. Zach Davies

4. Brandon Woodruff (if he finishes the season as he has pitched so far)

 

5a. Josh Hader

5b. Corbin Burnes

5c. Matt Garza

5c. Brent Suter

5d. Junior Guerra

5e. Taylor Jungmann

5f. Aaron Wilkerson

5g. Bubba Derby

5i. FA signing

 

I may even be missing someone. Just a lot of guys for five spots. Do we trade someone like Anderson while their stock is hopefully high?

[reillymcshane]

I'm guessing:

 

Anderson

Nelson

Woodruff

Suter

Davies

 

They hold on to Garza into camp and wait to see if there are any injuries. If not, they deal him to a team that needs him.

 

Guerra acts as the next guy up. Burnes is in the rotation by the trade deadline.

 

I'm guessing Hader is bullpen bound - but again, that's just a guess (along with all the rest).

[Humans Need Water]

Why don't you just buy some Simma's classic cheesecake to take your mind off it...

 

There's a lot of scenarios for me. Nelson, Chase, Hader, Woodruff, Davies are the main 5 for me but there can be some shuffling with that.

 

I could see trading high on Chase in the offseason and keeping Garza as the 5th. But I can see him trading Garza in offseason too (he'll pick up his option either way). I could also see both those guys traded and targeting a Verlander type and taking on the money or another vet like Lance Lynn (Verlander/Lynn, Nelson, Hader, Woodruff, Davies).

 

I see Suter in the pen in the long reliever/spot start role too with Guerra still in the org for depth. Then Ortiz and/or Burnes could be ready by the deadline too.

 

I think the pen is going to be the focus though....resign Swarzak and target an Addison Reed type (2 FA if Hader is in rotation) since we have the money to do so. Shore up the pen and this team is sitting pretty moving forward.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I'd be pretty surprised if Garza wasn't either traded or starting in the 5 spot next year.

 

Agree on Suter to the pen, as I'm just not sure his profile is someone who can go three times through consistently. Maybe he adjusts after these last two starts, though. We'll see.

 

One possible route is to recraft the bullpen using some of the starting pitching depth, especially guys like Guerra. I think you want to give the young guys as much opportunity in Spring, so I wouldn't be opposed to seeing if some of our older starters' stuff can't play up in shorter windows.

 

I would be inclined to sell high on Anderson, but I'm having a tough time imagining a return that would make up for his three years of team control (even if it is through arb.). Even with regression, Chase is probably an MLB-average starter, and he might be a good bit better. Three years with that kind of production would have to turn into some darn good prospects (maybe a 2B? C? Elite bullpen?), close to ML-ready to get me excited. I really like the idea, but it see it as a tough swing in practice.

[djoctagone]

Guerra acts as the next guy up.

I see Suter in the pen in the long reliever/spot start role too with Guerra still in the org for depth.

important to take note of regarding junior guerra's future in the organization in this thread . . .

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Nelson

Anderson

Cashner/Jiminez (a #2/3 on a two year deal)

Davies

Woodruff

[markedman5]

Unless Hader makes some significant strides with his breaking stuff and command he isn't going to be a starter. He would reach him s pitch limit in the 4th inning as things sit now.

[pacopete4]

Unless Hader makes some significant strides with his breaking stuff and command he isn't going to be a starter. He would reach him s pitch limit in the 4th inning as things sit now.

 

I mentioned this in another post but Randy Johnson was wild (never under 5 BB/9 until age 29) like Hader. Why not do what they did and let him just pitch and figure it out. Turned out pretty good for those guys.

[KeithStone53151]

Unless Hader makes some significant strides with his breaking stuff and command he isn't going to be a starter. He would reach him s pitch limit in the 4th inning as things sit now.

 

Chris Sale in 2010 out of the bullpen threw 392 pitches in 23.1 innings. Josh Hader this year has thrown 402 pitches in 22.1 innings. Josh Hader has a .81 ERA versus Sale having a 1.93 ERA in 2010.

[sveumrules]

Nelson

Anderson

Davies

Woodruff

Hader

 

Suter as 6th starter/longman or bumped to 5 spot if Hader can't throw his secondary offerings for strikes next spring.

[MrTPlush]

Unless Hader makes some significant strides with his breaking stuff and command he isn't going to be a starter. He would reach him s pitch limit in the 4th inning as things sit now.

 

Chris Sale in 2010 out of the bullpen threw 392 pitches in 23.1 innings. Josh Hader this year has thrown 402 pitches in 22.1 innings. Josh Hader has a .81 ERA versus Sale having a 1.93 ERA in 2010.

 

I kinda wish this argument for Hader to go to the rotation would include more than Randy Johnson and Chris Sale. Arguably one of the best ever and arguably the best of the current generation. Reminds me of Clancy grasping at major exception examples for soft tossing Brent Suter to be great.

 

Not saying Josh Hader can't be a great rotation asset, but where are the more "realistic" comparisons?

[pacopete4]

Unless Hader makes some significant strides with his breaking stuff and command he isn't going to be a starter. He would reach him s pitch limit in the 4th inning as things sit now.

 

Chris Sale in 2010 out of the bullpen threw 392 pitches in 23.1 innings. Josh Hader this year has thrown 402 pitches in 22.1 innings. Josh Hader has a .81 ERA versus Sale having a 1.93 ERA in 2010.

 

I kinda wish this argument for Hader to go to the rotation would include more than Randy Johnson and Chris Sale. Arguably one of the best ever and arguably the best of the current generation. Reminds me of Clancy grasping at major exception examples for soft tossing Brent Suter to be great.

 

Not saying Josh Hader can't be a great rotation asset, but where are the more "realistic" comparisons?

 

My comparison to Randy Johnson has to do with him being allowed a rotation spot to grow and learn. They're both left handed, have a similar delivery and throw the same pitches are some others. I'm not sure what's wrong with that type of comparison. Allow the guy to pitch and hey, who knows.. you might find a great pitcher there.

[brewmann04]

One guy will be a player not with this organization

[OnTheBlack]

I need to take my mind off of what we are witnessing lately so I was thinking about next season and the (good) problem the Brewers may have.

 

1. Jimmy Nelson

2. Chase Anderson

3. Zach Davies

4. Brandon Woodruff (if he finishes the season as he has pitched so far)

 

5a. Josh Hader

5b. Corbin Burnes

5c. Matt Garza

5c. Brent Suter

5d. Junior Guerra

5e. Taylor Jungmann

5f. Aaron Wilkerson

5g. Bubba Derby

5i. FA signing

 

I may even be missing someone. Just a lot of guys for five spots. Do we trade someone like Anderson while their stock is hopefully high?

 

This is one of the biggest questions for me as well. I didn't hold him in very high regard at all..either when we traded for him or after last season despite some outstanding outings. Yet I saw his name mentioned a couple times as a "break out" candidate and one fangraphs article had him "realizing his potential" as one of their bold predictions(another was that Arcia would hit this year and be more valuable than Aledmys Díaz offensively).

 

So I'm not really sure on that one.

 

I do know that I would definitely like to see Josh Hader in a starting role next year. I think the chances are at least 50/50 he ends up as a reliever, but he's been so good and he's been so good in longer stints that I just think you're doing yourself a major disservice by relinquishing him to the BP before he's failed as a starter.

 

What's more interesting to me is what the rotation could look like in 2019. You could easily see Woodruff, Hader, Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta in the mix with Anderson, Nelson, Davies. And then guys like Ponce, Supak, Diplan, and Bickford(still absolutely no clue what to expect from him as a Brewer).

 

I don't see an ace, but I see a lot of guys with good stuff who can keep you in games...and I think all this young controllable talent, along with the young cheap talent at most positions could actually allow the Brewers to jump in the mix for a legit ace in free agency. The type that are virtually always too expensive. Perhaps a Dallas Keuchel...of course Kershaw's also going to be a free agent that year..not that that matters at all. But I could definitely see us jumping in at some point in the future and signing that marquee FA like the D-backs did with Grienke if we have cheap talent everywhere else.

[OnTheBlack]

Unless Hader makes some significant strides with his breaking stuff and command he isn't going to be a starter. He would reach him s pitch limit in the 4th inning as things sit now.

 

Chris Sale in 2010 out of the bullpen threw 392 pitches in 23.1 innings. Josh Hader this year has thrown 402 pitches in 22.1 innings. Josh Hader has a .81 ERA versus Sale having a 1.93 ERA in 2010.

 

That means almost literally nothing regarding what he said about his command. It's absolutely a fact that unless Hader makes significant improvements with regard to both his command and control within the zone he won't be a starter. I'll take that a step further and say that he can't maintain this type of walk rate and be a successful reliever in the big leagues.

 

Sale also had a better FIP that year and walked about 3 fewer batters per 9 IP.

 

I can't think of a pitcher who walks nearly 7 guys per 9 IP who's had success at the big league level. You see Hader and you see he can be a really good pitcher. His stuff is exceptional, he's deceptive, etc..etc..etc..and I believe he will be.

 

But you can't use pitches thrown and ERA, ESPECIALLY in such a tiny sample size to make any viable comparison or statement about how he can maintain future success without improving.

 

Again, I think he will so I'm not bashing him. But there is no doubt that a starting pitcher cannot get away with that many walks and having to use that many pitches to get outs. It's just not sustainable.

 

Not saying Josh Hader can't be a great rotation asset, but where are the more "realistic" comparisons?

 

Comps with young players are almost always ridiculous like this. Remember when Nelson was drafted and people used Suppan as a comp and most people were then disgusted with the pick? Suppan had a career WAR of 20.4. Nelson had 4 career WAR entering this year. So that's probably why people are overly ambitious with their comps. Realistic ones aren't nearly as fun! I guess the best optimistic comp would be Andrew Miller though. There just aren't that many lanky lefties with that similar delivery who've had success. I think Hader's career has a better chance to be similar to Miller's than anyone else that comes to mind while still falling short, but I'm still holding out hope he can carve out a stop atop our rotation for the next 4-5 or so years.

[JohnBriggs12]

Hader's command issues are not so severe that they cannot be overcome. The numbers don't show it as much but Sale had some command issues early on too as did Johnson. In fact some wildness can be an asset. It makes hitters a little skittish. Hader's delivery is similar to Sale's and his stuff is close. Nobody is saying he's the next Sale nor certainly not Johnson who was unique but his ceiling is too high not to see how he can do as a starter. They have the luxury to make that move and see. If the 2018 season started tomorrow I'd go with Anderson, Nelson, Davies, Woordruff and Hader. Things almost never work out that simply due to injuries etc. so it's almost impossible to predict. Brewers easily have 4-5 other options at this point. Who those guys are will likely change between now and spring too with trades, FA additions etc.

[JosephC]

Nelson, Anderson, Woodruff, Davies, Garza, Suter

 

They enter spring training with those 6 and by opening day the starting five situation will have worked itself out. It wouldn't surprise me to see Stearns go out and pick up another Milone-type for additional insurance.

 

I think chances are overwhelming that Hader will begin next year as a reliever. He's done a great job this year and his 2018 value to the Brewers might be higher as a bullpen arm. I'd also be interested to see if giving him more regular work would get him more in a groove and help him work out some of his control issues.

 

I'd guess the earliest we'd see Burnes is a September callup in 2018 unless injuries to other players force the Brewers to use him earlier.

 

Guerra, big wild card but I'd guess we'd see the Brewers use him mostly as a reliever from here on out. If Stearns does not get another insurance starter this off-season then Guerra would probably fill that role. Does this guy have it in his arm to throw 190+ innings a year? That's a big and legitimate question.

 

There is a good chance the Brewers view Aaron Wilkerson as fringy and he will only get a chance if the injuries wipe out the pitching staff. Not crazy to think that Stearns could view him as the 7th insurance-type starter.

 

I think Jungmann is out with the Brewers. With Anderson getting hurt, Peralta crapping out, Guerra getting hurt, Garza being DL'ed, etc...there were numerous times the Brewers could have given Jungmann and opportunity especially since he's been pitching well and they never did. Have to think the Brewers view him as a minor league player at this point.

[FVBrewerFan]

Nelson

Anderson

Davies

Woodruff

Wilkerson

 

Garza in camp, just in case they have an injury or two, but barring injuries I don't see him on the roster again. Close call, but I'll say no. Jungmann down in AAA along with Guerra, either or both could get a shot at some point during the season. Then there's Burnes.

[KeithStone53151]

Chris Sale in 2010 out of the bullpen threw 392 pitches in 23.1 innings. Josh Hader this year has thrown 402 pitches in 22.1 innings. Josh Hader has a .81 ERA versus Sale having a 1.93 ERA in 2010.

 

That means almost literally nothing regarding what he said about his command. It's absolutely a fact that unless Hader makes significant improvements with regard to both his command and control within the zone he won't be a starter. I'll take that a step further and say that he can't maintain this type of walk rate and be a successful reliever in the big leagues.

 

Sale also had a better FIP that year and walked about 3 fewer batters per 9 IP.

 

I can't think of a pitcher who walks nearly 7 guys per 9 IP who's had success at the big league level. You see Hader and you see he can be a really good pitcher. His stuff is exceptional, he's deceptive, etc..etc..etc..and I believe he will be.

 

But you can't use pitches thrown and ERA, ESPECIALLY in such a tiny sample size to make any viable comparison or statement about how he can maintain future success without improving.

 

Again, I think he will so I'm not bashing him. But there is no doubt that a starting pitcher cannot get away with that many walks and having to use that many pitches to get outs. It's just not sustainable.

 

Not saying Josh Hader can't be a great rotation asset, but where are the more "realistic" comparisons?

 

Comps with young players are almost always ridiculous like this. Remember when Nelson was drafted and people used Suppan as a comp and most people were then disgusted with the pick? Suppan had a career WAR of 20.4. Nelson had 4 career WAR entering this year. So that's probably why people are overly ambitious with their comps. Realistic ones aren't nearly as fun! I guess the best optimistic comp would be Andrew Miller though. There just aren't that many lanky lefties with that similar delivery who've had success. I think Hader's career has a better chance to be similar to Miller's than anyone else that comes to mind while still falling short, but I'm still holding out hope he can carve out a stop atop our rotation for the next 4-5 or so years.

 

Oh boy, where to begin. Pitchers tend to pitch differently out of the pen than out of the rotation. Using extra pitches isn't as big a deal as they aren't trying to eat up a ton of innings. Also Hader has a very good track record in multiple minor league seasons, so it's not like I'm basing my opinion on him solely on the 25 MLB innings he's pitched in a different role than he's used to, nor should anyone else. Chris Sale is the dream outcome for Hader, and it isn't unrealistic as they are very similar. The numbers are reasonably close, and more to the point is that Sale clearly wasn't a finished product upon starting in his bullpen role at the MLB level. He developed and improved at this level and is now an absolute star. I don't think anybody is trying to say that Hader is good as is and doesn't need to improve. The crux of the discussion is whether he should enter the MLB rotation to start 2018 or serve another role(AAA starter, AA starter, MLB bullpen). My standpoint is, give him the inside track in ST to open in the 2018 mlb rotation. He'll have command issues and some short outings, but we are in a rebuild and he'll learn and develop much more at this level than any of the alternative options. He'll also likely have some very good outings to offset some bad ones and I would think will have a floor of a #5 SP statistically cumulatively next season.

 

And regarding Nelson, you conveniently leave out that Nelson currently has 4 WAR this season already and is only 28. Suppan never had a season of 3 WAR. And using WAR to prove your point that those 2 pitchers were a good comp for each other is...wow. Have you actually seen both pitchers pitch? The only way they are similar pitchers is that they both throw right handed, and apparently their WAR...or something. But that's apparently a thing...find one advanced metric that sorta/kinda proves your point and your standpoint is the bible. Nelson drastically improved his stuff since being drafted and is a power pitcher, which at that point the comp is gone and baseless since that's not what Suppan ever was.

[paul253]

Pitchers tend to pitch differently out of the pen than out of the rotation

 

Perhaps that's why he's having so much success out of the pen.

 

I think if we still opt to try him out as a starter, and even though i dont think he'll ultimately end up a starter I do think we should at least try him until he proves he can't be a starter, then it needs to be in AAA. The rebuild is much further along than expected and this offseason can be used to address our current weaknesses (bullpen, second base, CF). I doubt we can expect Anderson and Nelson to put up as good a year next year as they are having this year but if they do this team can definitely compete again. And if you're going to compete you don't want to use up a rotation spot on a guy still trying to figure things out. Consistent 4-6 inning starts will be bullpen killers.

 

Barring injury I see the rotation as Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Garza and Woodruff with Suter, Jungmann and maybe eventually Burnes next in line.

[KeithStone53151]

Pitchers tend to pitch differently out of the pen than out of the rotation

 

Perhaps that's why he's having so much success out of the pen.

 

I think if we still opt to try him out as a starter, and even though i dont think he'll ultimately end up a starter I do think we should at least try him until he proves he can't be a starter, then it needs to be in AAA. The rebuild is much further along than expected and this offseason can be used to address our current weaknesses (bullpen, second base, CF). I doubt we can expect Anderson and Nelson to put up as good a year next year as they are having this year but if they do this team can definitely compete again. And if you're going to compete you don't want to use up a rotation spot on a guy still trying to figure things out. Consistent 4-6 inning starts will be bullpen killers.

 

You don't think throwing him back into Colorado Springs would be bad for his development? With a guy as talented as Hader, you have to give him a real chance to sink or swim at this level. The only way I think Hader doesn't get a shot at the rotation is if we make a big splash signing and head into ST with FA, Nelson, Anderson, Davies with only one spot for him or Woodruff. Someone like Garza should not get a spot over Hader.

 

And on a side, CF is the biggest strength in our system and we'll head into ST with Broxton, Brinson, and Phillips vying for the starting role. Your desire to address CF in the offseason(which implies via trade of FA) shows that you have literally zero willingness to give any prospect a chance at the MLB level. Looking at what Brinson and Phillips are doing at AAA, how in the world can you not even consider them for a starting gig at the MLB level next season?

[pacopete4]

At some point the kid gloves have to come off with Hader and he's got to get the ball every five days and learn how to get major leaguers out for 6-7 innings a crack.

[bill hAll Star]

I'm assuming that Guerra and Suter's final options will be maintained for 2018.

 

Nelson

Anderson

Chatwood (3 years/$30 million)

Garza

Woodruff

 

Hader is either in the pen or in AAA getting ready to be in the rotation

Davies (?) - noted below

Suter

Guerra

Jungmann

Wilkerson

 

I realize that's a bit of a logjam, so it is not the exact rotation. 1-3 of the guys between Davies, Suter, Guerra, Garza, Jungmann, Wilkerson based on their options remaining get dealt for either a low-ceiling AA-ish pitcher to be our next depth guys or for bullpen help from teams that are desperate to fill out their rotation. Some of these guys could also sit in the MLB bullpen for a bit as long relief until needed.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm assuming that Guerra and Suter's final options will be maintained for 2018.

 

Nelson

Anderson

Chatwood (3 years/$30 million)

Garza

Woodruff

 

Hader is either in the pen or in AAA getting ready to be in the rotation

Davies (?) - noted below

Suter

Guerra

Jungmann

Wilkerson

 

I realize that's a bit of a logjam, so it is not the exact rotation. 1-3 of the guys between Davies, Suter, Guerra, Garza, Jungmann, Wilkerson based on their options remaining get dealt for either a low-ceiling AA-ish pitcher to be our next depth guys or for bullpen help from teams that are desperate to fill out their rotation. Some of these guys could also sit in the MLB bullpen for a bit as long relief until needed.

 

Boras would absolutely lose his mind if Davies was sent to the bullpen with Garza given a rotation spot over him. I would have some interesting and hilarious tweets rolling through my feed to say the least. We certainly do have a problem of too many back end rotation/fringe MLB starting options. I agree it would be nice to see some traded for value if possible.

[bill hAll Star]

I'm assuming that Guerra and Suter's final options will be maintained for 2018.

 

Nelson

Anderson

Chatwood (3 years/$30 million)

Garza

Woodruff

 

Hader is either in the pen or in AAA getting ready to be in the rotation

Davies (?) - noted below

Suter

Guerra

Jungmann

Wilkerson

 

I realize that's a bit of a logjam, so it is not the exact rotation. 1-3 of the guys between Davies, Suter, Guerra, Garza, Jungmann, Wilkerson based on their options remaining get dealt for either a low-ceiling AA-ish pitcher to be our next depth guys or for bullpen help from teams that are desperate to fill out their rotation. Some of these guys could also sit in the MLB bullpen for a bit as long relief until needed.

 

Boras would absolutely lose his mind if Davies was sent to the bullpen with Garza given a rotation spot over him. I would have some interesting and hilarious tweets rolling through my feed to say the least. We certainly do have a problem of too many back end rotation/fringe MLB starting options. I agree it would be nice to see some traded for value if possible.

 

Davies could potentially take the #5 spot and Woodruff could start in AAA if he hasn't yet lit the world on fire by the end of the 2017 season. The rotation will sort itself out early in the season with a few injuries or possibly a trade or poor performance (maybe Guerra's velocity is still way down and he gets DFA'ed).