BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Mid-Season Edition

[reillymcshane]

#1 ( - ) Lewis Brinson, OF, AAA Colorado Springs, Age 23.

285 ABs, .333 BA, .403 OBP, .947 OPS - AAA

47 ABs, .106 BA, .236 OBP, .513 OPS - Milwaukee

1,477 points (41 1st place votes) - 61 of 61 ballots

Brinson’s performance at AAA are overshadowed by his lackluster performance in the majors thus far (small sample size alert). His AAA numbers have been partially fueled by the light air of Colorado Springs, where his he has a 1.061 OPS versus an .821 road OPS. An elite talent, expect Brinson to play full time in Milwaukee in the future - but be prepared for some growing pains.

 

#2 ( - ) Josh Hader, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers, Age 23.

52 IP, 31 BB, 51 K, 5.37 ERA, 1.54 WHIP - AAA

22.1 IP, 17 BB, 27 K, 0.81 ERA, 1.21 WHIP - Milwaukee

1,440 points (13 1st place votes) - 61 of 61 ballots

Bullpen or rotation? That’s the question for Josh Hader. The big lefty has been an asset out of the pen in Milwaukee thus far, but he has been inconsistent both in the majors and minors in 2017. If Hader can refine his command and control, he will be a success - no matter what role he serves going forward. There’s a chance Hader graduates from this list by season’s end.

 

#3 (+4) Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers, Age 24.

72.2 IP, 24 BB, 70 K, 1.35 ERA, 1.50 WHIP - AAA

1,299 points (3 1st place votes) - 61 of 61 ballots

Woodruff has had an odd ride in 2017. His first 6-7 weeks were outstanding, despite pitching many of his games in Colorado Springs. An injury delayed his Milwaukee debut, but he threw 6+ innings last week and got his first win. A decent finish to 2017 would likely solidify him a spot in the 2018 rotation.

 

#4 (new) Keston Hiura, DH, A- Wisconsin, Age 21

62 ABs, .435 BA, .500 OBP, 1.339 OPS - AZL Rookie

79 ABs, .333 BA, .333 OBP, .333 OPS - Wisconsin

1,265 points (1 1st place votes) - 61 of 61 ballots

Milwaukee’s top pick in the 2017 amateur draft was billed as the best hitter of this year’s crop. Hiura has not disappointed - as his gaudy numbers show. Hiura should slot in at 2B in 2018, and if he can settle in defensively, could have a fast track ticket to the big leagues.

 

#5 (+15) Corbin Burnes, RHP, AA Biloxi, Age 22.

60 IP, 16 BB, 56 K, 1.05 ERA, 0.88 WHIP - A+

59.1 IP, 9 BB, 61 K, 2.12 ERA, 0.88 WHIP - AA

1,257 points (1 1st place votes) - 61 of 61 ballots

Based on numbers, if Burnes had been 1st round pick in 2016 - instead of a 4th - he would be one of the top prospects in major league baseball. He has simply been dominant - forcing his way up 15 spots in our Top 25 poll. Burnes might lack some of the tools of baseball’s top pitchers, but he is an aggressive pitcher who isn’t afraid to attack the zone. His low walk rate and rising strikeout rate are great signs. Expect him to pop up on Top 100 lists this offseason.

 

#6 (-1) Luis Ortiz, RHP, AA Biloxi, Age 21.

80.2 IP, 31 BB, 72 K, 3.57 ERA, 1.13 WHIP - AA

1,238 points - 61 of 61 ballots

The numbers are good - not great. The performance solid, but not inspiring. It all makes for a slow, but steady push for the big righty. Ortiz has as much talent as any pitcher in the Brewer system. He has come on of late, giving hope that he can elevate his game yet this year. Conditioning and health have always been a question with Ortiz, and the club would no doubt like to see him go deeper into games.

 

#7 (-4) Isan Diaz, 2B/SS, A+ Carolina, Age 21

369 ABs, .225 BA, .339 OBP, .715 OPS - A+

1,065 points - 61 of 61 ballots

After Diaz’s excellent 2016, his struggles are a disappointment to Brewer fans and the organization. His drop in our ranking reflect that disappointment - but his slotting still shows his enormous potential. Diaz possesses above average power and a plus bat speed, as well as a willingness to take a walk. In the future, moving out of the run-depressing environment of Carolina may be one remedy to reignite Diaz’s numbers.

 

#8 (+5) Brett Phillips, OF, AAA Colorado Springs, Age 23.

316 ABs, .310 BA, .381 OBP, .970 OPS - AAA

35 ABs, .229 BA, .289 OBP, .718 OPS - Milwaukee

1,016 points (1 1st place votes) - 61 of 61 ballots

Phillips re-energized his standing amongst voters (even garnering a 1st place vote) in 2017. Phillips still strikes out at a very high rate, but he has shown more power and better discipline this year. And while many batters have inflated numbers due to playing in Colorado Springs, Phillips has managed a nifty .927 OPS on the road. The big question is where does Phillips play going forward? If he steps up his game, he could potentially supplant Brinson as the team’s future CF. But with Ryan Braun in LF and Domingo Santana in RF, he might serve more as a semi-regular (filling in for the likely injuries that will occur).

 

#9 (-3) Corey Ray, OF, A+ Carolina, Age 22.

356 ABs, .239 BA, .315 OBP, .689 OPS, 21 SBs - A+

916 points - 60 of 61 ballots

Being the fifth overall pick in the 2016 draft - and a college bat - meant high expectations for Ray. He has, unfortunately, struggled in his first full year as a pro. The good: Ray is hitting a decent (but not great) .270 with a .774 OPS away from Carolina. The bad: a 31.2% strikeout rate. Some BF.net fans seem to have a dislike for Ray due to the fact that they did not want Milwaukee to draft him (as they didn’t think he was that good). But scouts universally praise Ray’s talents, character and acumen. It is up to Ray to put his entire game together to reach his potential.

 

#10 (-2) Trent Clark, OF, A+ Carolina, Age 20.

365 ABs, .230 BA, .363 OBP, .738 OPS, 29 SBs - A+

904 points - 60 of 61 ballots

Many felt that a healthy Trent Clark would re-establish himself as an elite hitting prospect in 2017. Clark has certainly improved over 2016, showing more power, an exceptional walk rate and speed on the base paths. But his .230 BA and 25+% strikeout rate are concerning. There is a lot to like here - but also a lot to give pause. Like several other talented hitters in the Brewer system, Clark needs to put his entire game together if he wants to stay in our Top 10 rankings.

 

#11 (-2) Mauricico Dubon, SS/2B, AAA Colorado Springs, Age 23.

268 ABs, .276 BA, .338 OBP, .689 OPS, 31 SB - AA

157 ABs, .287 BA, .317 OBP, .769 OPS, 6 SB - AAA

891 points - 60 of 61 ballots

Acquired from Boston this past off season, Dubon broke out big in 2016, hitting .323. His numbers have regressed this year a little, but he is showing speed and versatility. Going forward, Dubon probably best profiles at SS, but that spot is ably held in Milwaukee. 2B could also be his future in Milwaukee, but his bat likely would not be anything special at the position (his solid 2017 numbers at AAA mask a .517 OPS away from Colorado Springs). At the least, he could potentially fill a valuable utility role.

 

#12 (+5) Freddy Peralta, RHP, AA Biloxi, Age 21.

56.1 IP, 31 BB, 78 K, 3.04 ERA, 1.24 WHIP - A+

39.1 IP, 20 BB, 55 K, 2.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP - AA

870 points (1 1st place votes) - 61 of 61 ballots

133 strikeouts in 95.2 innings. That’s the number that pops out for Freddy Peralta. Peralta offers a plus fastball and change up, and a developing slider. And while the high walk rate is something to watch out for, fans should are excited about the progress shown by the undersized righty (as his five spot rise in our Top 25 shows).

 

#13 (+6) Monte Harrison, OF, A+ Carolina, Age 22.

223 ABs, .265 BA, .359 OBP, .834 OPS, 11 SB - A-

131 ABs, .252 BA, .319 OBP, .816 OPS, 7 SB - A+

779 points - 59 of 61 ballots

After a couple of injury plagued seasons, Harrison has had a breakout of sorts in 2017. He should hit 20 HR this year and steal 20 bases. His performance has risen his rankings an impressive six slots. Harrison is a tremendous athlete still learning the game of baseball. Don’t be surprised if he puts together a monster season when it all comes together.

 

#14 (-10) Lucas Erceg, 3B, A+ Carolina, Age 22.

415 ABs, .243 BA, .282 OBP, .677 OPS - A+

757 points - 61 of 61 ballots

After an outstanding debut in 2016, expectations were high for the slugging 3B in 2017. Erceg has, however, struggled, and thus tumbled in our rankings. It should be noted that the Carolina League is difficult for power hitters.

 

#15 (new) Tristen Lutz, OF, Rookie Helena, Age 19.

64 ABs, .297 BA, .366 OBP, .960 OPS - AZL

24 ABs, .417 BA, .481 OBP, 1.256 OPS - Helena

753 points - 59 of 61 ballots

The Brewers second selection this year (Milwaukee lured him away from his college commitment with an over-slot bonus of $2.352M), the 18-year old Lutz has come out slugging in pro ball. From Arizona to Helena, Lutz is tantalizing Brewer fans with his long ball potential (he has 6 HR in 88 at bats). With his power bat, strong arm and good instincts, Lutz profiles as a right fielder. If he keeps hitting, he should rise in the prospect ranks quickly. But caution should be taken with the small sample sizes.

 

#16 (+4) Jake Gatewood, 1B/3B, AA Biloxi, Age 21.

420 ABs, .269 BA, .340 OBP, .779 OPS - A+

547 points - 58 of 61 ballots

This is what you like to see with toolsy players - the guy putting a lot of things together to emerge as a realistic prospect. 36 doubles, 11 HR, and an improved walk rate all went with an overall maturation as a ballplayer - allowing Gatewood to have his best pro season. The next step will be unlocking Gatewood’s power potential. He was just recently was promoted to AA Biloxi.

 

#17 (-6) Phil Bickford, RHP, Age 22

468 points - 52 of 61 ballots

Bickford has had a difficult year. The former Top 100 prospect was slapped with a 50 game suspension this spring, then broke his hand while throwing batting practice. The result is a lost season. Bickford only recently returned to the mound, and he’ll use the rest of the season to try and set himself up fresh for 2018.

 

#18 (-5) Cody Ponce, RHP, A+ Carolina, Age 23.

100.2 IP, 21 BB, 83 K, 3.49 ERA, 1.34 WHIP - A+

318 points - 53 of 61 ballots

Ponce is a frustrating prospect. He often shows flashes of brilliance, followed by bouts of mediocrity. While he limits walks, he has been too hittable. It all makes for a solid, but uninspiring stat line. It will be interesting to see if he adjusts as he moves to AA.

 

#19 (+5) Kodi Medeiros, LHP, A+ Carolina, Age 21.

103 IP, 40 BB, 104 K, 5.07 ERA, 1.26 WHIP - A+

306 points - 46 of 61 ballots

Medeiros’ return to high A ball has been an improvement over 2016, but his numbers are not anything special. His 104 strikeouts and 1.26 WHIP are nice, and the improved walk rate is great. But Kodi continues to struggle with his command at times - as displayed by 17 hit batters to go with 40 walks. Medeiros has done well against lefties this year, but has been hit hard by right handers. Some speculate that he will be moved to the bullpen in the future.

 

#20 (-10) Marcos Diplan, RHP, A+ Carolina, Age 20.

97.1 IP, 56 BB, 99 K, 5.55 ERA, 1.58 WHIP - A+

285 points - 44 of 61 ballots

Diplan picked right up where he left last year - walking too many batters. The man sports an electric fastball and slider, which allows him to strike out a lot of hitters. However, he has not developed reliable secondary offerings. The club will likely keep Diplan in the rotation as long as possible, but a move to the bullpen could be in the cards if he doesn’t develop better command and a third pitch.

 

#21 (+15) Trey Supak, RHP, A+ Carolina, Age 20.

41 IP, 10 BB, 53 K, 1.76 ERA, 0.76 WHIP - A-

58.1 IP, 21 BB, 50 K, 4.78 ERA, 1.27 WHIP - A+

276 points - 48 of 61 ballots

Supak shot up the BF.net boards with an impressive showing at low A Wisconsin this spring. His promotion to Carolina has tempered the enthusiasm for the big right hander, as he has been dogged by gopher balls this summer. Still, Supak is an intriguing prospect that is just finally starting to show his stuff (he barely three 100 innings of work in his first three years of pro ball).

 

#22 (+10) Troy Stokes Jr., OF, AA Biloxi, Age 21.

364 ABs, .250 BA, .344 OBP, .789 OPS, 21 SB - A+

41 ABs, .317 BA, .408 OBP, .994 OPS, 2 SB - AA

252 points - 33 of 61 ballots

After four years, people are finally getting on the Troy Stokes Jr. bandwagon. The notice taken has coincided with the addition of some power to Stokes’ game (16 HRs already this year). Stokes has always sported a solid OBP (.361 lifetime), but the power surge he has put on display has forced everyone to take note going forward.

 

#23 (-5) Jacob Nottingham, C, AA Biloxi, Age 22.

267 ABs, .217 BA, .324 OBP, .683 OPS - AA

240 points - 39 of 61 ballots

Not a lot exciting about Nottingham’s second stint at Biloxi. While his walk rate has improved, he’s struggled to hit with authority for a second consecutive season. In his defense, Milwaukee has pushed Nottingham, and kept him focused on improving his defense. But with another season at Biloxi potentially in the mix, Nottingham will need to improve his offensive numbers to remain a top prospect.

 

#24 (+2) Mario Feliciano, C, A- Wisconsin, Age 18.

328 ABs, .241 BA, .309 OBP, .642 OPS - A-

200 points - 39 of 61 ballots

The Brewers were aggressive in placing the 18 year old Feliciano at full season ball for 2017. The youngster has held his own, but his numbers have faded as the year has gone on - perhaps the result of the grind of pro ball. Still, there is a lot to like about Feliciano. He sports good power potential, a strong arm and a decent eye at the plate.

 

#25 (new) KJ Harrison, C, Rookie Helena, Age 20.

77 ABs, .325 BA, .435 OBP, .915 OPS - A-

175 points - 35 of 61 ballots

Our 25th man is this year’s 3rd round pick, KJ Harrison. So far, so good. Harrison was drafted as a catcher, but he did not catch much in college. The Brewers will give the young man every chance to stay behind the dish, as his bat would play well at the position. If not, he would likely need to move to 1B, where he might not hit enough.

 

The rest

 

26. Taylor Williams - 169 points

27. Jordan Yamamoto - 143

28. Caden Lemons - 75

29. Carlos Herrera - 73

30. Bubba Derby - 58

31. Larry Ernesto - 37

32. Jon Perrin - 35

33. Josh Pennington - 30

34. Gabriel Garcia - 25

35. Demi Orimoloye - 24

36t. Nate Griep - 19

36t. Jorge Lopez - 19

38. Payton Henry - 18

39. Michael Reed - 14

40. Aaron Wilkerson - 13

41. Wei-Chung Wang - 9

42. Carlos Rodriguez - 8

43. Nick Ramirez - 7

44t. Zack Brown - 6

44t. Wes Wilson - 6

44t. Brendan Murphy - 6

47. Cooper Hummel - 5

48t. Kyle Wren - 4

48t. Nathan Kirby - 4

48t. Dallas Carroll - 4

51t. Black Allemond - 3

51t. Ernesto Martinez - 3

51t. Clint Coulter - 3

54t. Tristan Archer - 2

54t. Quentin Costa Torres - 2

54t. Nate Off - 2

57t. Adrian Houser - 1

57t. Gilbert Lara - 1

57t. Tyrone Taylor - 1

57t. Zack Clark - 1

57t. Je’Von Ward - 1

 

All ages and stats are as of August 9, 2017.

 

Full voting thread: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=35581

[reillymcshane]

The 2017 Mid-Season BF.net Community Top 25 is complete. We had 61 ballots - the same as we had last mid-season. Thanks very much for everyone’s input.

 

Lewis Brinson took the top spot on 41 of the 61 ballots. Josh Hader got 13 first place votes, Brandon Woodruff three top votes, and Keston Hiura, Freddy Peralta and Brett Phillips each getting one nod.

 

Newcomers to Top 25: Keston Hiura (new at #4), Tristen Lutz (new at #15), Trey Supak (new at #22), Troy Stokes, Jr. (new at #23), Mario Feliciano (new at $24) and KJ Harrison (new at #25)

Exited the Top 25: Demi Orimoloye, Taylor Williams (but just by one slot!), Nathan Kirby, Jorge Lopez and Ryan Cordell (via trade)

Number of ballots: 61

Number of players on ballots: 61

Mr. Irrelevant (1 point): Gilbert Lara, Tyrone Taylor, Zack Clark, Je’Von Ward, Adrian Houser

Risers: Corbin Barnes (15 spots), Trey Supak (15 spots), Troy Stokes Jr. (10 spots), Monte Harrison (6 spots), Brett Phillips (5 spots), Freddy Peralta (5 spots), Jake Gatewood (5 spots), Kodi Medeiros (5 spots)

Fallers: Gilbert Lara (42 spots), Nathan Kirby (27 spots), Jorge Lopez (22 spots), Erceg (10 spots), Diplan (10 spots), Orimoloye (10 spots), Bickford (6 spots)

Players with a decent chance to be ineligible for the next poll: Josh Hader, Brandon Woodruff

 

If you see any mistakes, please let me know. Sometimes autocorrect will trick me. Or I’ll cut and paste something incorrectly. Other times I just mess something up. I will update as needed.

 

We'll do post-season poll sometime in October or early November.

[reillymcshane]

Observations:

 

- A lot of movement in this poll.

- A lot of new faces as well.

- Some long time Top 25 guys have tumbled - some badly.

- Amazing to see Gilbert Lara get 1 single vote. Same with Tyrone Taylor.

- Hader got quite a few votes as the top prospect - but he also got downgraded by quite a few voters. I suspect that some of those people feel that Hader is destined for the bullpen - where he won't be as valuable.

- The struggles of the Carolina hitters was interesting. Diaz, Ray, Erceg, Clark - all these guys fell a few slots. It will be interesting to see how they do outside of Carolina. It should be noted that some hitters did just fine in Carolina - including Jake Gatewood and Troy Stokes Jr.

[And That]

Thank you as always for putting this together!

 

Bold prediction: Carlos Rodriguez will be in the top 20 by this time next season.

[OnaBadger58]

Great work. This has always been my favorite part of the website! Thanks for continuing to do this.

 

Bold Prediction: Taylor Williams will jump to the top 15 next year.

[Boomer5]

Great job putting this together! This along with the Links Report are the highlights of the board.

[Manty Brewer Fan]

Thank you as always for putting this together!

 

Bold prediction: Carlos Rodriguez will be in the top 20 by this time next season.

 

Do you think they could go aggressive and bring him stateside immediately next year? I would agree with that statement if they do, but I worry they'll keep him in DSL next season which I think would suppress his excitement.

 

I am super excited for him though! Really like this last class of international signees.

[Outlander]

Thanks Reilly, a couple of things I found interesting:

 

Our 9-11 ranked players (Ray/Clark/Dubon) were each left off a ballot.

Stokes had the lowest amount of people voting for him than any player in the top 25 and he ended up at #22. 33 of 61 ballots.

Lara went from being on 58 ballots last summer to 1 ballot this summer.

[Austin Tatious]

Great job, guys. Been busy and overlooked it, so I missed the chance to participate (my first miss in awhile).

 

Anyway, the list looks rational. Of course, any one of us would disagree at spots but that's the point of putting down the collective wisdom, which is quite instructive IMO.

[reillymcshane]

Thanks Reilly, a couple of things I found interesting:

 

Our 9-11 ranked players (Ray/Clark/Dubon) were each left off a ballot.

Stokes had the lowest amount of people voting for him than any player in the top 25 and he ended up at #22. 33 of 61 ballots.

Lara went from being on 58 ballots last summer to 1 ballot this summer.

Yeah, Stokes was weird. He was ignored by a lot of people, but pretty high on others. He's kind of flown under the radar up to now - but that will change.

 

As for people not being on ballots -- that happens. Sometimes it's a mistake. Sometimes it's just a person being weird. In the end, you just have to shrug and move on.

[reillymcshane]

I look at the list and have to acknowledge the fickle nature of prospects. I mean, many of these guys are teenagers when we start assessing them, and who knows how they will turn out.

 

A couple of years ago Tyrone Taylor was barely beat out by Orlando Arcia as our top prospect. Fast forward to today and Arcia is entrenched at SS, while Taylor got one vote in our poll. What makes Arcia mature into a major leaguer and what causes Taylor to fail? Often times, you just can't tell. Development is so weird.

[MadThinker88]

At what point will you determine Hader to be ineligible for the listing: # of innings pitched or will you acknowledge the number of days in majors??

 

I believe that after 45 days in the majors, players lose their prospect status. MLB Pipeline has already removed him from their Brewers top 30.

[reillymcshane]

At what point will you determine Hader to be ineligible for the listing: # of innings pitched or will you acknowledge the number of days in majors??

 

I believe that after 45 days in the majors, players lose their prospect status. MLB Pipeline has already removed him from their Brewers top 30.

We go on 50 IP and 130 ABs - just like the majors. We don't do the days of service. It is often hard to find their exact days of service (maybe not for main guys, but for the lower level guys you just don't know). And it eliminates guys like Wang, who had less than 20 IP after his 'rookie' season. So we just stick with the IP and ABs as a guideline.

 

However, it is just a guideline. We can do what we want. Example, if someone is close to graduating, we will make them ineligible. So if Hader is sitting at 45 IP at the end of the year, we'll likely just graduate him - especially if it's obvious that he'll be on the roster to start next season.

 

I should note that this usually only happens with relievers. So it's not as if it comes up a lot.

[Never Outhustled]

Thanks a ton Reilly. This is a serious workload. However, I was a little confused by the Ray comment that "some fans seem to have a dislike for Ray due to the fact that they did not want to draft him"

 

I had Ray really low, but ahead of him was players who are just as toolsy, younger, and more productive at the same level. Does that show some kind of bias?

 

I also had players roughly his age (within 3 months) but way, way more advanced ranked ahead of him, like Brinson, Phillips, and Dubon. Again, where's the bias? Due people realize Ray turns 23 next month?

 

Ray's high ranking is a bias based on his lofty draft status. Nothing he's done at the plate in college or the pros suggest a quality MLB hitter.

[reillymcshane]

Thanks a ton Reilly. This is a serious workload. However, I was a little confused by the Ray comment that "some fans seem to have a dislike for Ray due to the fact that they did not want to draft him"

 

I had Ray really low, but ahead of him was players who are just as toolsy, younger, and more productive at the same level. Does that show some kind of bias?

This is a good question. And some of it is me projecting my own opinions on the write-ups. The answer is that I feel that some people seem to have bias against Ray because they didn't like the pick in the first place. Thus, they are very quick to denigrate him and don't want to give him a chance. In some ways it's an emotional response - and I understand it. His numbers have not been good - so it's frustrating to see such a valuable asset - the 5th pick in the draft - look like a bomb.

 

Thus, it's easy to downgrade the guy in a poll like this when it works into the narrative people have on Ray. "It was a bad pick. We should have picked a pitcher (or whatever other argument). He's going to be a bomb. He was never good to begin with." I think it's easy to downgrade him a few ticks (or a lot of ticks) - consciously or unconsciously - if you have this feeling.

 

As for people not liking the Ray pick, you can find lots and lots of arguments about the pick in the original draft thread - and then the discussion has come up repeatedly in many, many threads over the past year. I've seen people declare Ray a 'bomb' and 'waste' and things like that. I can't think about any pick that has experienced as much hostility from people in the last few years as Ray.

 

Again, I understand the frustration. He isn't doing well.

 

I also should note that I don't think it affected Ray's ranking much - if at all. He's still pretty high.

 

I also had players roughly his age (within 3 months) but way, way more advanced ranked ahead of him, like Brinson, Phillips, and Dubon. Again, where's the bias? Due people realize Ray turns 23 next month?

One of the biggest challenges Ray had coming out of college was that he hadn't produced elite numbers. They were good - but not great. We expect great for the #5 pick. To ignore the numbers is foolish.

 

However, the Brewers knew that Ray was going to have to make adjustments as a pro. They knew there would be some growing pains. To ignore the other things that come with being an exceptional player, such as elite athleticism and makeup, is foolish as well. Scouts, baseball analysts, front office people - they all saw the upside that Ray possessed - even if he hadn't channeled that athleticism into better raw numbers.

 

Ray's high ranking is a bias based on his lofty draft status. Nothing he's done at the plate in college or the pros suggest a quality MLB hitter.

Lofty draft status means a person was highly thought of by the baseball community - so yes, there will be a bias. But that bias has a basis in the original projections that the baseball world had for Ray (or any draft pick). I don't think it's wise to dismiss those things so quickly.

 

I know that the Brewers loved Ray. They saw him as a guy who could develop into a 15-20 HR guy, steal 30 bases, hit .280, and play good defense. It's not just tools - it's athleticism. It's something a lot of people don't have. And baseball people described Ray as having elite athleticism. I think the only guy in the system that projects that kind of skill is Monte Harrison.

 

I said earlier that in the end, production is what matters. But the production that matters is in the major leagues. The minors are to develop - and sometimes that development will come with a lot of aches and pains.

 

I do want to note that people rank players in different ways. Some people look at production more than others with regard to rankings. That's fine. Others might look more at upside. Again, that's fine as well.

 

Sports are littered with failures of guys who couldn't put everything together. And it's nuts how high picks can turn sour very quickly (Mark Appel, for instance).

 

Again, the comment was based on my own perceptions. I don't think Ray is highly ranked (#9) because of his draft status. It's because of his athleticism and skill that got him that draft status. Yes, we want more production. In fact, we will demand it at some point. No doubt even Ray's believers are holding their breaths - hoping he improves. Time will tell.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Wow.

 

According to Baseball America, OF Tyrone Taylor was the Brewers #2 overall prospect in 2014.

 

He has gone from that to only receiving 1 vote in this.

 

Quite the fall from prospect grace.

[MrTPlush]

Couples thoughts:

 

Everyone ranks very differently on her and weigh things to different amounts. Production is important, but there is also potential you can quantify in current/past statistics.

 

Adding onto that it is very interesting to see the different ways people decide to ranks guys and see how that fares over the long run. Very rarely do we see list that are very similar. Once you get past the Top 10 the differences can be pretty substantial.

[bork]

Also interesting about Stokes is that he is the only player on the list who isn't on the MLB.com top 30 list.

[cmow]

reillymcshane,

Are Keston Hiura's second line of stats for Milwaukee supposed to be for Appleton?

[reillymcshane]

reillymcshane,

Are Keston Hiura's second line of stats for Milwaukee supposed to be for Appleton?

Thanks for the catch. You are right. I corrected it.

 

I cut and paste things - then change the text for the person. I do that for everyone, so I always seem to make a mistake like this every time.

 

Thanks for catching it.

[LouisEly]

Great job as always. But Brandon Woodward?

 

I'm kind of with Never Outhustled on this one. Looking back at my list, the one who I have ahead of Ray that I probably should not have is Ponce. But you could make a good argument for Dubon (same age, AAA), T. Clark (much younger, same level but better production, 1st round pick), Bickford (at A+ as 20-year-old, 1st round pick), Peralta (younger, better numbers at higher level), T. Williams (better numbers, higher level, highly regarded), I. Diaz (younger, same level), K. Hiura (#9 overall pick), B. Phillips (same age, majors), and then it gets really hard to argue Ray over Burnes, Ortiz, Brinson, Hader, and Woodruff.

 

I think you could also make a good argument for M. Harrison being ahead of Ray too - he wasn't a 1st round pick likely due to his college football commitment, and he got 1st round money to sign, so the talent and certainly athleticism are there too. In reality, Ray could easily and maybe should be ranked in the high teens. Athleticism is nice, but job #1 is to hit the baseball. If you can't do that, it doesn't matter.

 

I think it was Mass who posted a scouting report on Ray and Clark yesterday or the day before, and it wasn't flattering for either. Had both as a 50. But just about everyone is struggling there, so I wonder how good of a hitting coach they have there.

[clancyphile]

Thanks Reilly, a couple of things I found interesting:

 

Our 9-11 ranked players (Ray/Clark/Dubon) were each left off a ballot.

Stokes had the lowest amount of people voting for him than any player in the top 25 and he ended up at #22. 33 of 61 ballots.

Lara went from being on 58 ballots last summer to 1 ballot this summer.

Yeah, Stokes was weird. He was ignored by a lot of people, but pretty high on others. He's kind of flown under the radar up to now - but that will change.

 

As for people not being on ballots -- that happens. Sometimes it's a mistake. Sometimes it's just a person being weird. In the end, you just have to shrug and move on.

 

At the start of the season, I had Stokes at 16, noting, "Quietly showing OBP skills, speed, and gap power."

 

This year, he was #3, behind the dominating Burnes and Hader, whose floor is as a dominating closer. I think he has probably the most complete offensive skill set of any outfielder in the Brewers system. I fully expect he'll start at Colorado Springs.

 

As for why some folks aren't on my ballot: It's either injuries or suspensions in some cases. In others, I think there are other players whose numbers warrant it. Cooper Hummel's quietly flashed superb OBP skills and some power at Carolina in limited PAs. Plus, he's a switch-hitter. Hummel may be no more than a #2 catcher, but a .757 OPS is not bad when its SLG baseline is a .239 batting average.

[sveumrules]

Thanks as always Reilly for putting in the time & effort it must take to put this all together.

 

As apparently the lone Lara voter let me offer my reasoning. As others have noted there were plenty of candidates for the final few spots & for me it came down to him still being young & having the highest upside of any of the other candidates for those same last few spots, even if his likelihood of reaching that upside isn't looking so great right now. When he hits 50 bombs for the Brewers in 2020 I can use it as proof of my clearly superior baseball intellect.

[reillymcshane]

Great job as always. But Brandon Woodward?

Thanks for the catch. After typing in 60-70 names there's usually a mistake or two.

[reillymcshane]

Thanks as always Reilly for putting in the time & effort it must take to put this all together.

 

As apparently the lone Lara voter let me offer my reasoning. As others have noted there were plenty of candidates for the final few spots & for me it came down to him still being young & having the highest upside of any of the other candidates for those same last few spots, even if his likelihood of reaching that upside isn't looking so great right now. When he hits 50 bombs for the Brewers in 2020 I can use it as proof of my clearly superior baseball intellect.

To me Lara was really hard to justify a spot. He has just shown nothing in several years, and while he has great physical tools, he doesn't it doesn't seem like he's going to translate those tools into baseball tools. I hope something 'clicks' for him soon.