Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

2017-08-07: Brewers (Suter) at Twins (Santana) 7:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 5-4]

hawing

By hawing,
in Archived Game Threads

lcbj68c ACL Brewers

lcbj68c

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
I wasn't following the IGT yesterday at the end, but I assume this debate is on the non-bunt call for Pina? Looks like the bunt was the better play, but that is assuming it gets down and the following hitters don't K.

 

I won't go into it again but what you are missing in your math is that only 75% of the time does the bunt move the runner. You have to include the 25% of the time it fails into the math. You don't get to just point at 3rd and the runners move over, you have to execute first. The math you showed up is what would happen if the bunt worked 100% of the time and it simply does not. The final math shows you lower your chance to score a run by about 2%. That is completely context neutral so the context behind the specific bunt has to make up that 2% somehow. That is where the opinion part of it comes in. If someone believes that was a much better than average situation to bunt in that makes up the 2% I'm all cool with that. I just disagree with them.

 

But I'm done with the discussion. I just don't like someone saying my math proved they were right when it clearly proved they were wrong. Math is a big deal to me.

 

 

I won't go into it again....then two paragraphs later... :laughing :laughing :laughing

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 344
  • Created
  • Last Reply
yfinn6 First Round Pick

yfinn6

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
FWIW, gameday had 2 of those 4 pitches as strikes and 1 borderline.

 

There was an article not too long ago about Pitch/FX and the reliability of it's data. The end result to me was that the Std Dev was too great in terms of inches both vertically and horizontally for me to even care about it anymore. FWIW...just about nil, IMHO.

 

A standard deviation of inches seems shocking to me; not questioning it. To my average eyesight, it looks as though the computer takes note of pitch location in relation closer to where it's caught rather than where it crosses home plate. Maybe my timing is off but the location shown is always off a little bit to my eye when they show that in slow-motion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TJseven7 First Round Pick

TJseven7

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
No i got the bunt success ratio... while you ignore the drawbacks of swinging away. You only talk about the side that boosts your pro analytics viewpoint. You don't mention the fact that there are drawbacks on both sides of the possible paths. One of which was the disaster you saw unfold yesterday.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
lcbj68c ACL Brewers

lcbj68c

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
FWIW, gameday had 2 of those 4 pitches as strikes and 1 borderline.

 

There was an article not too long ago about Pitch/FX and the reliability of it's data. The end result to me was that the Std Dev was too great in terms of inches both vertically and horizontally for me to even care about it anymore. FWIW...just about nil, IMHO.

 

A standard deviation of inches seems shocking to me; not questioning it. To my average eyesight, it looks as though the computer takes note of pitch location in relation closer to where it's caught rather than where it crosses home plate. Maybe my timing is off but the location shown is always off a little bit to my eye when they show that in slow-motion.

 

I'd have to find the article. IIRC, Miller Park's cameras were the worst of the 30 parks studied. I want to say it was nearly 2 inches towards first base.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Not getting the swings and misses so far. Brewers bats better heat up again.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
jerichoholicninja Carolina Mudcats

jerichoholicninja

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
FWIW, gameday had 2 of those 4 pitches as strikes and 1 borderline.

 

There was an article not too long ago about Pitch/FX and the reliability of it's data. The end result to me was that the Std Dev was too great in terms of inches both vertically and horizontally for me to even care about it anymore. FWIW...just about nil, IMHO.

 

A standard deviation of inches seems shocking to me; not questioning it. To my average eyesight, it looks as though the computer takes note of pitch location in relation closer to where it's caught rather than where it crosses home plate. Maybe my timing is off but the location shown is always off a little bit to my eye when they show that in slow-motion.

 

If you're referring to Fox Trax I'm guessing their location is based off of the TV shot like K-Zone and sort of a best guess by a computer when the white dot reaches a point (I have nothing to back that up, just my feeling). While MLB's Gamecast uses their statcast/pitchf/x/whatever they use.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
lcbj68c ACL Brewers

lcbj68c

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

If you're referring to Fox Trax I'm guessing their location is based off of the TV shot like K-Zone and sort of a best guess by a computer when the white dot reaches a point (I have nothing to back that up, just my feeling). While MLB's Gamecast uses their statcast/pitchf/x/whatever they use.

 

No. It was Pitch/FX. I will see if I can find the data study.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jerichoholicninja Carolina Mudcats

jerichoholicninja

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

If you're referring to Fox Trax I'm guessing their location is based off of the TV shot like K-Zone and sort of a best guess by a computer when the white dot reaches a point (I have nothing to back that up, just my feeling). While MLB's Gamecast uses their statcast/pitchf/x/whatever they use.

 

No. It was Pitch/FX. I will see if I can find the data study.

 

Not you, whoever said they thought it looked off to their eye.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Tough to get the job done with 1 pitch

 

It hasn't been up until right now.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
lcbj68c ACL Brewers

lcbj68c

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Here is the article I was thinking of

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13109

 

Here is a new article I guess as there was a shift away from Pitch/FX to Statcast this year.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseballs-new-pitch-tracking-system-is-just-a-bit-outside/

 

The end result for me is I don't even look at it. The only value to Gameday for me is "In play, Runs" or Not. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Susac is not great receiving. And I don't just say that with a passed ball.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Brewer Fanatic Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Brewers community on the internet. Included with caretaking is ad-free browsing of Brewer Fanatic.

Become a Caretaker
×
×
  • Create New...