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2017-08-07: Brewers (Suter) at Twins (Santana) 7:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 5-4]

hawing

By hawing,
in Archived Game Threads

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topper09er ACL Brewers

topper09er

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I wasn't following the IGT yesterday at the end, but I assume this debate is on the non-bunt call for Pina? Looks like the bunt was the better play, but that is assuming it gets down and the following hitters don't K.

 

Using the 2010-2016 scoring env (https://gregstoll.dyndns.org/~gregstoll/baseball/stats.html#V.-1.9.0.4.2010.2016

 

Visitor +1 top 9th, R1 R2 0 out = 93% win percentage, 62% chance to score at least 1 run in the inning. 1.47 run expectancy for the inning

Visitor +1 top 9th, R2 R3 1 out = 97% win percentage, 67% chance to score at least 1 run in the inning. 1.37 run expectancy for the inning

 

Heading into bottom 9, visitor +1 = 83% win percentage, visitor +2 = 93% win percentage. Visitor +3 = 97% WE

 

The bunt increases your winning percentage. At that point in the game extra runs have a diminishing return, one extra run is worth 10% and the second additional run was only worth 5% more in WE.

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pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

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Uh oh, Suter out of rythm even. This may not end well.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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Brewcrewin07 ACL Brewers

Brewcrewin07

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Nice work, Suter.

 

Said to my dad yesterday, "I have absolutely no doubt that the minute we finally start to get the bats going, the pitchers will start getting tagged."

 

 

My boss and I were talking about that very same thing today. We both said, as soon as they start hitting again, then the pitching will blow.

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lcbj68c ACL Brewers

lcbj68c

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"I wasn't following the IGT yesterday at the end, but I assume this debate is on the non-bunt call for Pina? Looks like the bunt was the better play, but that is assuming it gets down and the following hitters don't K."

 

I don't think you have the luxury of hindsight on the last part. Either you make the choice to bunt or you don't...can't see the result first to justify (or not) the decision.

 

I would have called for a bunt myself. CC does not deploy a good strategy offensively very well in the late innings. Been my criticism of him.

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TJseven7 First Round Pick

TJseven7

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You dont say it but you sure do act like it...

 

And your numbers say im right until you change them to fit your bias for your school of thought. I am not the one tied to either. I believe both are proper at times and neither has the riddles answer. That realistic... shame on me!

 

I don't care about the bunt but that is not what my numbers say and that is the problem. You don't seem to understand how math works.

 

But whatever, be mad at Counsell all you want. He is going to get blamed for every loss by someone anyway, it comes with his job.

 

Its not a math problem... its a misuse of statistics. These statistics are shallow on filters and meritless once you extrapolate them. Why can't you see that or why do you ignore that. There are important factors being dismissed in those numbers. It's not in a vacuum to the degree this line of thought suggests. These metrics are in their infantcy. Long way to go before you can be dictated by them.

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Ennder Carolina Mudcats

Ennder

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I wasn't following the IGT yesterday at the end, but I assume this debate is on the non-bunt call for Pina? Looks like the bunt was the better play, but that is assuming it gets down and the following hitters don't K.

 

I won't go into it again but what you are missing in your math is that only 75% of the time does the bunt move the runner. You have to include the 25% of the time it fails into the math. You don't get to just point at 3rd and the runners move over, you have to execute first. The math you showed up is what would happen if the bunt worked 100% of the time and it simply does not. The final math shows you lower your chance to score a run by about 2%. That is completely context neutral so the context behind the specific bunt has to make up that 2% somehow. That is where the opinion part of it comes in. If someone believes that was a much better than average situation to bunt in that makes up the 2% I'm all cool with that. I just disagree with them.

 

But I'm done with the discussion. I just don't like someone saying my math proved they were right when it clearly proved they were wrong. Math is a big deal to me.

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lcbj68c ACL Brewers

lcbj68c

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FWIW, gameday had 2 of those 4 pitches as strikes and 1 borderline.

 

There was an article not too long ago about Pitch/FX and the reliability of it's data. The end result to me was that the Std Dev was too great in terms of inches both vertically and horizontally for me to even care about it anymore. FWIW...just about nil, IMHO.

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pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

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Although Shaw has few errors that play is why he is average on D.

 

Ya, I don't know how many 3B are going to make that play, let alone get a glove on it.

 

Arenado, Muchado.... list ends.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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