Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?

[TJseven7]

If the Brewers thought Josh Hader had a good or even decent chance to be an impact starter he would be in the rotation. He is not and that likely tells us the Brewers don't believe in his stuff translating to the rotation in a way that would be more impactful than him staying a bullpen ace.

 

I don’t buy this logic at all. Hader currently can’t throw his secondary pitches for strikes. He’s extremely wild in the zone. If he were starting, he’d be at 100 pitches in the 4th inning. Batters are often more patient early in games, and they won’t jump at all his pitches. I like Hader in the pen so he can learn to attack hitters and refine his mechanics. In the long run, I like him as a starter. But until he can consistently hit targets, he needs to work on short 3-9 batter stretches.

 

Lol I was just going to post... why not both. 1st post is exactly right because of the concerns stated in the 2nd post.

 

That could change... it hasn't yet. I want hader in the pen but if he refines his control I'll change my stance for 2019.

[TJseven7]

"I wish Thames still fit into this somehow, he seems like a nice guy to want to keep around, but he just doesn't fit. You don't want him as a backup OF/1B."

 

WHY NOT? He can do more, sure but he's cheap enough to be a huge plus backup.

 

You figure yelich rests 10. Against lefties so broxton plays those. Cain for 15. Phillips can play 120 ish and not be overworked as a rookie. Braun can play 40 at Lf with some combination of yelich cain broxton phillips in cf and rf.

 

Braun plays 120 as well. Leaves 80 games at 1b for thames.

 

Cain yelich braun shaw requires an upgrade at 2b as is. If braun goes down and you dont have thames the offense goes down the drain. Trading Santana and Aguilar is as far as you want to go.

 

Id rather bargain shop on corbin or odorizzi at this point because without a legit offensive weapon at ss or 2b or C the offense feels light without santana.

[danzig6767]

 

Lol I was just going to post... why not both. 1st post is exactly right because of the concerns stated in the 2nd post.

 

That could change... it hasn't yet. I want hader in the pen but if he refines his control I'll change my stance for 2019.

Yea, just because he likely is in the pen this year, it doesn't have to mean that he stays there for good. Plenty of starters began their big league career in the bullpen first.

[KeithStone53151]

If the Brewers thought Josh Hader had a good or even decent chance to be an impact starter he would be in the rotation. He is not and that likely tells us the Brewers don't believe in his stuff translating to the rotation in a way that would be more impactful than him staying a bullpen ace.

 

I don’t buy this logic at all. Hader currently can’t throw his secondary pitches for strikes. He’s extremely wild in the zone. If he were starting, he’d be at 100 pitches in the 4th inning. Batters are often more patient early in games, and they won’t jump at all his pitches. I like Hader in the pen so he can learn to attack hitters and refine his mechanics. In the long run, I like him as a starter. But until he can consistently hit targets, he needs to work on short 3-9 batter stretches.

 

How many times do these nonsense comments/myths need to be disproven before they stop getting regurgitated as fact? Hader never hit 100 pitches in the 4th inning in the minors, why would that all of a sudden start happening as he continually improves? Heck he usually pitched 5-6 innings in the minors with an upper 80s pitch limit. And Hader greatly improved his off speed stuff throughout the season and absolutely can throw both off speed pitches for strikes. Many young high end pitchers(kershaw, strasberg, scherzer, verlander, etc) relied heavily on their fastball early in their career with good results before mastering their offspeed stuff...what we are seeing from Hader isn't anything new for a frontline starter, and he definitely isn't a finished product. Do you expect him to consistently be able to backdoor a slider like CC Sabathia(guy with 3,000 career innings under his belt) just learned to do in his mid-late 30s?

 

The reason Stearns/Counsell moved Hader to the bullpen has more to do with putting a known asset into a spot they know he can succeed rather than risk growing pains during a season in which we are building a roster to compete for playoffs. We already have 1 question mark(Woodruff) in the rotation, it wouldn't be wise to have 2 on a competitive roster. I fully believe if we were a 70 win team last year, Hader would be starting. I understand that logic of theirs, I just don't agree with it as Hader is too valuable. We won't see another arm like his come through the system for probably another 10 years.

[monty57]

Does every team over-scrutinize all the negatives about their top prospects as much as we do? Good gracious, guys in the low minors are untouchable, but once they get ready to play at the major league level there's always major reasons why they're not good enough and we need to sign someone to block them.

 

Hader is the best starting pitcher prospect we've had in a long time, possibly ever. Unfortunately, he will never get the chance to see if he can cut it because short-term desire to win outweighs long-term desire to get the most value out of him.

 

I know I shouldn't use "never." If the Brewers decide in the future to move him to starter, we will get a couple partial years of him starting before he gets his innings built up right around time for us to trade him or lose him to free agency.

[pacopete4]

Does every team over-scrutinize all the negatives about their top prospects as much as we do? Good gracious, guys in the low minors are untouchable, but once they get ready to play at the major league level there's always major reasons why they're not good enough and we need to sign someone to block them.

 

Hader is the best starting pitcher prospect we've had in a long time, possibly ever. Unfortunately, he will never get the chance to see if he can cut it because short-term desire to win outweighs long-term desire to get the most value out of him.

 

I know I shouldn't use "never." If the Brewers decide in the future to move him to starter, we will get a couple partial years of him starting before he gets his innings built up right around time for us to trade him or lose him to free agency.

 

Part of me kind of hopes to see him used as a trade piece to a team that wants to start him. I don't want the Brewers to lose him but I also want to see this electric arm flourish. Just not sure that will be in a Brewers uniform. It really is a shame.

[FVBrewerFan]

Does every team over-scrutinize all the negatives about their top prospects as much as we do? Good gracious, guys in the low minors are untouchable, but once they get ready to play at the major league level there's always major reasons why they're not good enough and we need to sign someone to block them.

 

Hader is the best starting pitcher prospect we've had in a long time, possibly ever. Unfortunately, he will never get the chance to see if he can cut it because short-term desire to win outweighs long-term desire to get the most value out of him.

 

I know I shouldn't use "never." If the Brewers decide in the future to move him to starter, we will get a couple partial years of him starting before he gets his innings built up right around time for us to trade him or lose him to free agency.

 

Part of me kind of hopes to see him used as a trade piece to a team that wants to start him. I don't want the Brewers to lose him but I also want to see this electric arm flourish. Just not sure that will be in a Brewers uniform. It really is a shame.

 

It's a shame when anonymous fans believe they know more than professionals who are paid to make decisions like this. There is no evidence, none, that shows Hader will not flourish in a Brewers uniform.

[adambr2]

Does every team over-scrutinize all the negatives about their top prospects as much as we do? Good gracious, guys in the low minors are untouchable, but once they get ready to play at the major league level there's always major reasons why they're not good enough and we need to sign someone to block them.

 

Hader is the best starting pitcher prospect we've had in a long time, possibly ever. Unfortunately, he will never get the chance to see if he can cut it because short-term desire to win outweighs long-term desire to get the most value out of him.

 

I know I shouldn't use "never." If the Brewers decide in the future to move him to starter, we will get a couple partial years of him starting before he gets his innings built up right around time for us to trade him or lose him to free agency.

 

Part of me kind of hopes to see him used as a trade piece to a team that wants to start him. I don't want the Brewers to lose him but I also want to see this electric arm flourish. Just not sure that will be in a Brewers uniform. It really is a shame.

 

Andrew Miller has an electric arm. To a lesser extent, so does Zach Britton. Both of these guys were failed starters. Not every electric lefty arm is destined to start. Sometimes the secondary stuff just isn't enough, especially when you have to dial down your fastball a few ticks to be able to sustain 6-7 innings instead of throwing gas for 1-2.

 

I'm not saying Hader can't make it as a starter, but it's entirely possible that the Brewers are leaning toward the scouts who believe he's destined for the pen.

[FVBrewerFan]

As many others have said, he is not necessarily destined to the pen forever. It makes perfect sense this year, as they have decided to compete, and Hader is known quantity in the pen.

 

Worst case scenario, say he never starts. There is nothing wrong with having a late inning/ closer locked up for many years. Brewers have been fortunate to have cheap guys like Knebel in that role, but it's only a matter of time before they would need to pony up a lot of cash or top prospects for a closer. So having Hader fill that role is not a bad thing.

 

That said, I still think he will get a shot in the rotation at some point. That some time could even be this year at some point depending on how everything shakes out. A lot of unforeseen things happen over the course of a 6 month season.

[monty57]

It's a shame when anonymous fans believe they know more than professionals who are paid to make decisions like this. There is no evidence, none, that shows Hader will not flourish in a Brewers uniform.

 

I don't doubt that he will be a good bullpen arm, just like I don't doubt that Santana would make a good bench bat. I just don't think it's the way to maximize the player's value to the Brewers. I do think having him in the pen this year and signing some 30 year-olds to long-term deals will make the 2018 Brewers better. I just don't think it's the best thing for a couple of years from now.

 

I'm a financial planner. I constantly talk with people about where they'll be a decade or three from now, so I'm wired to worry about future ramifications of current moves. I know it can be annoying. I'll still enjoy this season even if I worry about some of the teams' moves.

[FVBrewerFan]

It's a shame when anonymous fans believe they know more than professionals who are paid to make decisions like this. There is no evidence, none, that shows Hader will not flourish in a Brewers uniform.

 

I don't doubt that he will be a good bullpen arm, just like I don't doubt that Santana would make a good bench bat. I just don't think it's the way to maximize the player's value to the Brewers. I do think having him in the pen this year and signing some 30 year-olds to long-term deals will make the 2018 Brewers better. I just don't think it's the best thing for a couple of years from now.

 

I'm a financial planner. I constantly talk with people about where they'll be a decade or three from now, so I'm wired to worry about future ramifications of current moves. I know it can be annoying. I'll still enjoy this season even if I worry about some of the teams' moves.

 

Agree completely Monty, that wasn't directed at you.

[pacopete4]

Does every team over-scrutinize all the negatives about their top prospects as much as we do? Good gracious, guys in the low minors are untouchable, but once they get ready to play at the major league level there's always major reasons why they're not good enough and we need to sign someone to block them.

 

Hader is the best starting pitcher prospect we've had in a long time, possibly ever. Unfortunately, he will never get the chance to see if he can cut it because short-term desire to win outweighs long-term desire to get the most value out of him.

 

I know I shouldn't use "never." If the Brewers decide in the future to move him to starter, we will get a couple partial years of him starting before he gets his innings built up right around time for us to trade him or lose him to free agency.

 

Part of me kind of hopes to see him used as a trade piece to a team that wants to start him. I don't want the Brewers to lose him but I also want to see this electric arm flourish. Just not sure that will be in a Brewers uniform. It really is a shame.

 

It's a shame when anonymous fans believe they know more than professionals who are paid to make decisions like this. There is no evidence, none, that shows Hader will not flourish in a Brewers uniform.

Gotta love condescending posts that really have no business ever being written. Take your BS elsewhere.

[monty57]

Alright, let's move on. Please keep the focus on Hader and the decision to put him in the bullpen to start the season.

 

That's all. Go Brewers!

[pacopete4]

Does every team over-scrutinize all the negatives about their top prospects as much as we do? Good gracious, guys in the low minors are untouchable, but once they get ready to play at the major league level there's always major reasons why they're not good enough and we need to sign someone to block them.

 

Hader is the best starting pitcher prospect we've had in a long time, possibly ever. Unfortunately, he will never get the chance to see if he can cut it because short-term desire to win outweighs long-term desire to get the most value out of him.

 

I know I shouldn't use "never." If the Brewers decide in the future to move him to starter, we will get a couple partial years of him starting before he gets his innings built up right around time for us to trade him or lose him to free agency.

 

Part of me kind of hopes to see him used as a trade piece to a team that wants to start him. I don't want the Brewers to lose him but I also want to see this electric arm flourish. Just not sure that will be in a Brewers uniform. It really is a shame.

 

Andrew Miller has an electric arm. To a lesser extent, so does Zach Britton. Both of these guys were failed starters. Not every electric lefty arm is destined to start. Sometimes the secondary stuff just isn't enough, especially when you have to dial down your fastball a few ticks to be able to sustain 6-7 innings instead of throwing gas for 1-2.

 

I'm not saying Hader can't make it as a starter, but it's entirely possible that the Brewers are leaning toward the scouts who believe he's destined for the pen.

I don't disagree with your assessment as to why they are doing it I just disagree with the process of finding out if he is a starting pitcher in this league or not. It feels like a wasted opportunity. He could have very well been the 5th starter this year so that he had the opportunity to prove, one way or another if he can start at the big league level. I get the win now mentality and that is all great but if it comes at the expense of one of the best arms our franchise has ever had, I'm not on board with it. Like Monty laid out, it feels very shortsighted.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't disagree with your assessment as to why they are doing it I just disagree with the process of finding out if he is a starting pitcher in this league or not. It feels like a wasted opportunity. He could have very well been the 5th starter this year so that he had the opportunity to prove, one way or another if he can start at the big league level. I get the win now mentality and that is all great but if it comes at the expense of one of the best arms our franchise has ever had, I'm not on board with it. Like Monty laid out, it feels very shortsighted.

 

I understand the concern. I guess my question is why is it shortsighted that he doesn't start in April, 2018? If he start next year, or even later this year, is that really a wasted opportunity?

[pacopete4]

I don't disagree with your assessment as to why they are doing it I just disagree with the process of finding out if he is a starting pitcher in this league or not. It feels like a wasted opportunity. He could have very well been the 5th starter this year so that he had the opportunity to prove, one way or another if he can start at the big league level. I get the win now mentality and that is all great but if it comes at the expense of one of the best arms our franchise has ever had, I'm not on board with it. Like Monty laid out, it feels very shortsighted.

 

I understand the concern. I guess my question is why is it shortsighted that he doesn't start in April, 2018? If he start next year, or even later this year, is that really a wasted opportunity?

 

I'm a believer that for a starting pitcher to reach their max potential, they need the experience. It's not an overnight success story for most pitchers, even a lot of the all-time greats. If Hader were to start this year, there would be rough moments in the process but hopefully, eventually, he would get over them and become the pitcher I think he can. If that is delayed until next season or the year after that, the process just begins over again along with having to build up the endurance to become a starter. And in the process, it is wasted years where we have him cheap and controllable. Again, it is just an opinion, but I don't think it serves the Brewers or him well down the road.

[KeithStone53151]

I don't disagree with your assessment as to why they are doing it I just disagree with the process of finding out if he is a starting pitcher in this league or not. It feels like a wasted opportunity. He could have very well been the 5th starter this year so that he had the opportunity to prove, one way or another if he can start at the big league level. I get the win now mentality and that is all great but if it comes at the expense of one of the best arms our franchise has ever had, I'm not on board with it. Like Monty laid out, it feels very shortsighted.

 

I understand the concern. I guess my question is why is it shortsighted that he doesn't start in April, 2018? If he start next year, or even later this year, is that really a wasted opportunity?

 

It would be better for him to build up stamina this year. If it waits until next year, can they really expect 180 innings from him? Probably not unless he pitches a lot of multi-inning stints and we make the playoffs this year.

 

As much as I hate Hader in the pen this year, it may benefit him being able to throw competitive pitches more often with the development of his offspeed. Maybe throwing them a few times every other day helps him more than every 5 days.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't disagree with your assessment as to why they are doing it I just disagree with the process of finding out if he is a starting pitcher in this league or not. It feels like a wasted opportunity. He could have very well been the 5th starter this year so that he had the opportunity to prove, one way or another if he can start at the big league level. I get the win now mentality and that is all great but if it comes at the expense of one of the best arms our franchise has ever had, I'm not on board with it. Like Monty laid out, it feels very shortsighted.

 

I understand the concern. I guess my question is why is it shortsighted that he doesn't start in April, 2018? If he start next year, or even later this year, is that really a wasted opportunity?

 

It would be better for him to build up stamina this year. If it waits until next year, can they really expect 180 innings from him? Probably not unless he pitches a lot of multi-inning stints and we make the playoffs this year.

 

True, but there's a flip-side to that. Limiting his innings now could keep him "fresher" down the road. What if they keep him in the pen for 3 years, then sign him to a new contract for 8 years? Flip the switch, and you have your TOR starter for the next 8 years. And you saved money because he isn't coming off three years as a successful starting pitcher.

[adambr2]

Well, an alternative would have been to sign Mike Minor to a 3/30 deal. I'm assuming you would have to beat the offer of 3/28 from Texas, not just match it.

 

Minor would have taken Hader's old pen role but then you're up to $100M or so and probably out of room for a major splash beyond that as in one of the frontline starters.

[dacbrewers]

Attanasio has done a lot for the Brewers. My biggest complaint has always been that when he decides to go for it, he has a hard time letting a rookie play. He would far rather pay money to get a "name" then put his faith in a young, "unproven" talent.

 

We'll have Phillips on the bench this year getting a couple hundred PAs and Hader throwing 60-70 innings from the bullpen, while Woodruff will be traded or sent back to the minors. We had the best farm we've had in a long time, and apparently none of these guys were good enough to crack the starting lineup now that we're "trying to win." They're either traded, left in the minors, or relegated to part-time duty.

 

I'm excited to see what other moves are coming, and to see how the Brewers do this year, but we will not be able to compete very long if we don't let our good prospects get significant roles on the MLB team that will allow them to reach their full potential.

 

I agree with you. Brewers do this every year, they want a veteran presence in the pen and on the bench. More and more guys are going to be stuck at AAA instead of getting an opportunity especially when they performed the year before. It wouldn't surprise me if more pitchers are signed and Suter/Woodruff are back at AAA. As far as Hader, he should be starting.

[DHonks]

I fully expect Hader to be starting by 2019. As stated before, he needs to learn to attack hitter. Last year he was a lot less refined than I expected after having defended him as a starter for a long time. I've always thought that some guys need to learn to attack, throw strikes and learn how to pitch, whereas some guys are more refined and ready to start immediately. Yo was pretty refined. Initially he was a good strike thrower, got ahead of hitters, and had an uncanny ability to catch guys looking at belt high heaters for strike three.

[brewmann04]

Let him grow in the Pen and add him in the rotation for 2019

[monty57]

Here are Hader's IP by year:

 

2012: 28.2

2013: 107.1

2014: 123.1

2015: 103.3 (year he was traded to Milw)

2016: 126

2017: 99.2

 

Last year would have been the time to keep him starting in the minors to get to 150+ innings, but of course things played out as they did and he ended up with limited innings. Really my only concern with him being in the pen in 2018 is that he will probably get <80 IP.

 

If he then gets put into the rotation in 2019, how much could they reasonably expect him to pitch? I'd think 150 would be the max, and after two years of sub-100 IP, even that might be pushing it by today's standards. Does anyone really think that next year at this time, when we're likely still in "go for it" mode, that we'll put him in the rotation knowing that he'll only be able to go a partial season when we know he can help the team for a full season out of the bullpen?

 

Every player has some issues. We've nitpicked Hader to death on why he might not be 100% ready, but he has so much potential and I see us limiting the total value we'll get from Hader because we want to maximize today's value when we're chasing the playoffs today rather than looking at total value and how much more he could help us in future playoff runs as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

 

And of course, that's assuming the naysayers are correct. There is also the possibility that Hader could have a great season as a starter as soon as this year, but that we will never know.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I still think Hader gets a legitimate shot at making the opening day rotation, and would likely shift back to a bullpen role the 2nd half of this season once either Nelson returns or another starter is acquired via trade at this year's deadline. That sort of a workload would likely give a healthy Hader 125-150IP this season, and would really set him up to be a fulltime starter in 2019. He should at least get the opportunity - if he falls flat on his face in Spring Training or early in the season, they can always shift him back to the relief role.

 

Think of the recent bullpen signings the Brewers have made -they have alot of arms to throw against the wall and piece together a pen without Hader that are better options than what their pen looked like at the start of last season. Also, they could probably find a quality late inning reliever via trade that won't cost near as much as a controllable starter in prospects.

[monty57]

I still think Hader gets a legitimate shot at making the opening day rotation, and would likely shift back to a bullpen role the 2nd half of this season once either Nelson returns or another starter is acquired via trade at this year's deadline. That sort of a workload would likely give a healthy Hader 125-150IP this season, and would really set him up to be a fulltime starter in 2019. He should at least get the opportunity - if he falls flat on his face in Spring Training or early in the season, they can always shift him back to the relief role.

 

Think of the recent bullpen signings the Brewers have made -they have alot of arms to throw against the wall and piece together a pen without Hader that are better options than what their pen looked like at the start of last season. Also, they could probably find a quality late inning reliever via trade that won't cost near as much as a controllable starter in prospects.

 

They've already announced that he will start the season in the bullpen. I think it would take something unforeseen happening for him to start the season in the rotation (injury to someone, or Stearns' plans on acquiring another starter completely falling flat).