Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?

[TJseven7]

Good.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Stearns confirmed today that although he does not rule out Hader transitioning to a starting role sometime in the future, he will be pitching out of the bullpen in 2018.

 

This is a little bit of a bummer, but I think it confirms that they aren't done shoring up the rotation. They'll sign one of the big free agents, or make a trade for a starter. THere's no way after the moves they made this week that they are content going into the season with the rotation as set.

[pacopete4]

Huge bummer. One of the best arms out teams ever had since I’ve been alive most likely won’t get the opportunity to reach his max potential in a Brewers uniform.

[splitterpfj]

I wouldn't move Hader out of the pen, I applaud the choice.

 

The game uses bullpens in different, and much more prominent ways than ever before - I love having an arm like that at the manager's disposal when the game situation calls for it.

 

The only way I will disapprove is if they lock him into a specific role, such as only pitching the 8th inning - my whole point is using him when he can help the most, regardless.

 

I get it, with work, Hader may someday become a true difference maker in the rotation, but I think he'll be a true difference maker in the bullpen - right now.

[KeithStone53151]

I wouldn't move Hader out of the pen, I applaud the choice.

 

The game uses bullpens in different, and much more prominent ways than ever before - I love having an arm like that at the manager's disposal when the game situation calls for it.

 

The only way I will disapprove is if they lock him into a specific role, such as only pitching the 8th inning - my whole point is using him when he can help the most, regardless.

 

I get it, with work, Hader may someday become a true difference maker in the rotation, but I think he'll be a true difference maker in the bullpen - right now.

 

Transitioning to a starter later doesn't make sense to me. To go from a couple seasons pitching maybe 80-100 innings to all of a sudden being expected to go 200. Leaving that open is an effort to appease the people that think moving him to the pen is stupid, which includes me. As soon as we made the Yelich/Cain moves, it was pretty clear Hader was going to the bullpen. Doesn't make it any less of a waste...an underutilization of an arm caliber we won't see in the system for another 10 years.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Transitioning to a starter later doesn't make sense to me. To go from a couple seasons pitching maybe 80-100 innings to all of a sudden being expected to go 200. Leaving that open is an effort to appease the people that think moving him to the pen is stupid, which includes me. As soon as we made the Yelich/Cain moves, it was pretty clear Hader was going to the bullpen. Doesn't make it any less of a waste...an underutilization of an arm caliber we won't see in the system for another 10 years.

 

Agreed wholeheartedly. There is a reason that 99.9 percent of relievers are former starters. Starting pitchers are ALWAYS going to hold more value. That's why teams typically put their best arms in the rotation. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Brewers take the Chris Sale approach with Hader: Let him dominate as a reliever while honing in on perfecting his secondary stuff, then in year 3, you move him into the rotation. That's exactly what the White Sox did with Sale, and it worked to perfection. He cut his teeth as a reliever in 2010, then had a dominant 2011 as a reliever before moving to the rotation in 2012. Look for 2018 to be Hader's dominant reliever year, then open 2019 in the rotation.

[adambr2]

I understand the frustrations to a point. However, I think it would be pretty unanimous that Josh Hader makes the Brewers much better in the pen this year than he does in the rotation. Josh Hader alone is probably the difference between this pen being potentially pretty good, and being a potential disaster. He takes all the high leverage innings and reduces everyone else's role. He's the guy who is going to come in a close bases loaded game with Bryce Harper coming up in the 7th, or come up in the 8th in a 1 run game to face the heart of a tough order.

 

I think people get too hung up on the "200 innings is more than 80 innings so 200 innings must be 120 innings more valuable." I think that's an oversimplication -- I don't pretend to know how to exactly quantify it but Hader takes on many more high leverage innings in his role which may make the difference in numerous close games.

Pens are much more specialized than they were in the past.

 

Without him, you've got Knebel for the 9th and a whole lot of question marks before him. With the Brewers recent moves they've obviously put a premium on trying to win this year and Hader in the pen is definitely safer in that regard.

 

Now you could argue that they could have signed some veteran high end pen arms to replace Hader's role in the pen to open things up for his move, but that's not the route they went in the pen. So I'm pretty confident that having gone this way they'll still have another move to make yet for the rotation.

 

If the Brewers feel Hader is a future starter, he'll get his shot. It probably would have been this year if we had won 70 games last year. But make no mistake he can still be very valuable in the role he's going to be in.

[monty57]

Attanasio has done a lot for the Brewers. My biggest complaint has always been that when he decides to go for it, he has a hard time letting a rookie play. He would far rather pay money to get a "name" then put his faith in a young, "unproven" talent.

 

We'll have Phillips on the bench this year getting a couple hundred PAs and Hader throwing 60-70 innings from the bullpen, while Woodruff will be traded or sent back to the minors. We had the best farm we've had in a long time, and apparently none of these guys were good enough to crack the starting lineup now that we're "trying to win." They're either traded, left in the minors, or relegated to part-time duty.

 

I'm excited to see what other moves are coming, and to see how the Brewers do this year, but we will not be able to compete very long if we don't let our good prospects get significant roles on the MLB team that will allow them to reach their full potential.

[KeithStone53151]

I understand the frustrations to a point. However, I think it would be pretty unanimous that Josh Hader makes the Brewers much better in the pen this year than he does in the rotation. Josh Hader alone is probably the difference between this pen being potentially pretty good, and being a potential disaster. He takes all the high leverage innings and reduces everyone else's role. He's the guy who is going to come in a close bases loaded game with Bryce Harper coming up in the 7th, or come up in the 8th in a 1 run game to face the heart of a tough order.

 

I think people get too hung up on the "200 innings is more than 80 innings so 200 innings must be 120 innings more valuable." I think that's an oversimplication -- I don't pretend to know how to exactly quantify it but Hader takes on many more high leverage innings in his role which may make the difference in numerous close games.

Pens are much more specialized than they were in the past.

 

Without him, you've got Knebel for the 9th and a whole lot of question marks before him. With the Brewers recent moves they've obviously put a premium on trying to win this year and Hader in the pen is definitely safer in that regard.

 

Now you could argue that they could have signed some veteran high end pen arms to replace Hader's role in the pen to open things up for his move, but that's not the route they went in the pen. So I'm pretty confident that having gone this way they'll still have another move to make yet for the rotation.

 

If the Brewers feel Hader is a future starter, he'll get his shot. It probably would have been this year if we had won 70 games last year. But make no mistake he can still be very valuable in the role he's going to be in.

 

Of course he'll be valuable. Based on them competing I understand why they made the decision, and it's a logical decision...I still don't agree with it. It would be like buying bitcoin at $500 and selling at $5000, sure you hit a home run...who wouldn't be happy to guarantee that kind of return? But it highpointed around $19k and it currently is selling for around $11k. Not a perfect analogy, but that's kinda how I see Hader in the pen. I get he'll be used in high leverage innings, there will probably be games where a starter goes 6 innings and Hader pitches the last 3 innings of a 2 or 3 run game and straight finishes it...saving the rest of the pen. The value of shutdown relievers like that is huge, but the ace potential is worth the risk.

 

Given the state of the team, it doesn't make sense to open with Hader and Woodruff in the rotation. You only want 1 question mark at most in the rotation to open the season on a competitive team. I would put Hader in the rotation and have Woodruff open in AAA(I'm assuming we get a rotation arm). Woodruff is a solid floor pitcher, but his upside is limited probably to Lance Lynn(I forget who came up with that, but I like the comp a lot). Hader's upside is true ace.

[KeithStone53151]

Attanasio has done a lot for the Brewers. My biggest complaint has always been that when he decides to go for it, he has a hard time letting a rookie play. He would far rather pay money to get a "name" then put his faith in a young, "unproven" talent.

 

We'll have Phillips on the bench this year getting a couple hundred PAs and Hader throwing 60-70 innings from the bullpen, while Woodruff will be traded or sent back to the minors. We had the best farm we've had in a long time, and apparently none of these guys were good enough to crack the starting lineup now that we're "trying to win." They're either traded, left in the minors, or relegated to part-time duty.

 

I'm excited to see what other moves are coming, and to see how the Brewers do this year, but we will not be able to compete very long if we don't let our good prospects get significant roles on the MLB team that will allow them to reach their full potential.

 

I've pretty much made peace with the fact that we're subscribing to the window theory. It's going to be a pretty big window with 4-5 years of control over most of our best players, but it's still going to be a window and then we'll have to rebuild again. Utilizing young players and cycling them out as they near free agency is what a small market needs to do to consistently compete. Trading off big chunks of your farm and letting talent toil in the minors for "proven" players is how windows get created and lengthy rebuilds need to happen. I'll embrace the window as it will be fun to see good baseball and compete, but Stearns is clearly not making an effort to be consistently competitve as he's been claiming for years...

[adambr2]

Attanasio has done a lot for the Brewers. My biggest complaint has always been that when he decides to go for it, he has a hard time letting a rookie play. He would far rather pay money to get a "name" then put his faith in a young, "unproven" talent.

 

We'll have Phillips on the bench this year getting a couple hundred PAs and Hader throwing 60-70 innings from the bullpen, while Woodruff will be traded or sent back to the minors. We had the best farm we've had in a long time, and apparently none of these guys were good enough to crack the starting lineup now that we're "trying to win." They're either traded, left in the minors, or relegated to part-time duty.

 

I'm excited to see what other moves are coming, and to see how the Brewers do this year, but we will not be able to compete very long if we don't let our good prospects get significant roles on the MLB team that will allow them to reach their full potential.

 

I agree with this as far as Phillips goes. I think Yelich was a little bit of a special circumstance -- a guy who is basically a prime Ryan Braun lite -- less power, better D, became available in his prime, and I get how that was just too good to pass up. No one they gave up in the deal was close to MLB ready besides Brinson, and they may have felt that the injury concerns with Brinson were just too much to not sell high on him while they still had a chance to do so.

 

But I'm disappointed that Phillips seems now destined for a limited role or AAA. I'm sure you can find plenty of time for him if Santana gets traded, but if not, then what? I think Phillips is being a little undervalued and may have the upside of a lefty Santana only with elite D insread of defensive warts. But we'll never find out if we don't give him a shot.

[pacopete4]

Is Hader staying in the pen an Attanasio move?

[KeithStone53151]

Attanasio has done a lot for the Brewers. My biggest complaint has always been that when he decides to go for it, he has a hard time letting a rookie play. He would far rather pay money to get a "name" then put his faith in a young, "unproven" talent.

 

We'll have Phillips on the bench this year getting a couple hundred PAs and Hader throwing 60-70 innings from the bullpen, while Woodruff will be traded or sent back to the minors. We had the best farm we've had in a long time, and apparently none of these guys were good enough to crack the starting lineup now that we're "trying to win." They're either traded, left in the minors, or relegated to part-time duty.

 

I'm excited to see what other moves are coming, and to see how the Brewers do this year, but we will not be able to compete very long if we don't let our good prospects get significant roles on the MLB team that will allow them to reach their full potential.

 

I agree with this as far as Phillips goes. I think Yelich was a little bit of a special circumstance -- a guy who is basically a prime Ryan Braun lite -- less power, better D, became available in his prime, and I get how that was just too good to pass up. No one they gave up in the deal was close to MLB ready besides Brinson, and they may have felt that the injury concerns with Brinson were just too much to not sell high on him while they still had a chance to do so.

 

But I'm disappointed that Phillips seems now destined for a limited role or AAA. I'm sure you can find plenty of time for him if Santana gets traded, but if not, then what? I think Phillips is being a little undervalued and may have the upside of a lefty Santana only with elite D insread of defensive warts. But we'll never find out if we don't give him a shot.

 

I know this is off topic, but I think it's more likely that Santana is traded and Broxton/Phillips work as primary RF. Either player in RF gives us probably the best defensive outfield in baseball. Slot Phillips in the 6-8 spots and you'll probably get reasonable production for that spot in the lineup(maybe 750-800 OPS). Trade Santana, add Walker, Cain/Yelich/Braun/Shaw/Walker/Pina/Phillips/Arcia...the 7 and 8 spots have probably 700 OPS floor but big upside.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

But I'm disappointed that Phillips seems now destined for a limited role or AAA. I'm sure you can find plenty of time for him if Santana gets traded, but if not, then what? I think Phillips is being a little undervalued and may have the upside of a lefty Santana only with elite D instead of defensive warts. But we'll never find out if we don't give him a shot.

 

I think Phillips's skillset screams "rightfielder of the future". Developing power, decent contact skills, good speed, fiery mentality. It's funny that he and Santana came to the team in the same deal, because they seem to be close to polar opposites in a lot of ways. Santana is definitely a player Doug Melvin would have loved - athletic, hulking and powerful. Phillips's all-around skills, defensive prowess and all-out attitude I believe makes him more of a Stearns-type player. A prospective outfield of Yelich in LF, Cain in CF and Phillips in RF would likely be one of the best defensively in baseball.

 

He's why I think the Braun to 1B thing is going to happen.

[adambr2]

Agreed with the last two. I think if you're going to make the last two moves for the OF defense, you might as well take it all the way. A Phillips/Broxton platoon in RF will be fantastic defensively and probably good for 40-45 HR too. Yeah, you're still going to have a lot of K's but those will be reduced with the platoon role and you've already taken significant steps to reduce them teamwise with Yelich and Cain.

 

I know everyone bags on Broxton and a lot of it is justified, but if you stick to playing him only against lefties, he'll be fine. They wanted him to be the everyday CF last year and it didn't work out. He's a platoon bat, but he'll be a good one and with Brinson gone that opens the door for him to stick around, and Perez is an easy choice as the 5th OFer for the rare times you need one.

 

You have that outfield, trade for Harrison, if Braun is athletic enough to handle 1st, you just may have the best defense in baseball.

 

Unfortunately, that leaves Thames, Aguilar, and Santana out, but all are plenty tradeable. I don't think we can worry too much about Santana not being traded yet -- I know the Yelich and Cain moves happened so fast that it was natural to wonder what Santana is still doing here, but there's plenty of time left. Odds are still he goes, I think.

 

I wish Thames still fit into this somehow, he seems like a nice guy to want to keep around, but he just doesn't fit. You don't want him as a backup OF/1B.

[FVBrewerFan]

100% agree. I think Aguilar would be a great guy to have as a PH, but obviously you can't eat up a roster spot for that. Same with Thames, although if Braun starts at 1B, and serves as the 5th OF, maybe Thames can get enough ABs to justify sticking on the roster. It's a stretch.

 

As far as Domingo goes, I think it just depends what you get for him. The guy can hit, and has the potential to get better. I have been harping about having a great defensive OF for years now, so believe me I don't want Santana in RF again. But I would rather have that than giving him away for far less than what he is "worth." If that's the case, let Mav marinate for a little while yet, maybe Santana's stock goes up.

 

But yea, Yelich/Cain/Phillips with Broxton as the 4th OF would be nice.

[KeithStone53151]

Agreed with the last two. I think if you're going to make the last two moves for the OF defense, you might as well take it all the way. A Phillips/Broxton platoon in RF will be fantastic defensively and probably good for 40-45 HR too. Yeah, you're still going to have a lot of K's but those will be reduced with the platoon role and you've already taken significant steps to reduce them teamwise with Yelich and Cain.

 

I know everyone bags on Broxton and a lot of it is justified, but if you stick to playing him only against lefties, he'll be fine. They wanted him to be the everyday CF last year and it didn't work out. He's a platoon bat, but he'll be a good one and with Brinson gone that opens the door for him to stick around, and Perez is an easy choice as the 5th OFer for the rare times you need one.

 

You have that outfield, trade for Harrison, if Braun is athletic enough to handle 1st, you just may have the best defense in baseball.

 

Unfortunately, that leaves Thames, Aguilar, and Santana out, but all are plenty tradeable. I don't think we can worry too much about Santana not being traded yet -- I know the Yelich and Cain moves happened so fast that it was natural to wonder what Santana is still doing here, but there's plenty of time left. Odds are still he goes, I think.

 

I wish Thames still fit into this somehow, he seems like a nice guy to want to keep around, but he just doesn't fit. You don't want him as a backup OF/1B.

 

I could see Santana going and Thames/Phillips basically splitting most atbats. You have 3 OF spots and 1b, 4 total spots with 5 guys to cover(yelich/Cain/Braun/Phillips/Thames). The first 3 are playing most days(first 2 virtually everyday), when Thames plays you put Braun in the outfield...when phillips plays you put him at 1b. Broxton plays against lefties only. It would be a good way to help Phillips break into the bigs, you can consider moving Thames at the deadline or just keep him for depth. That way you don't have a significant dropoff when someone has a minor strain and needs to sit a couple days, that type of thing is inevitable with probably every one of our outfielders.

[3and2Fastball]

Funny to click on a Hader thread and read an Outfield/1B discussion

 

With Hader, it depends on how many pitches in an outing before he stops being elite. Anecdotal, but I remember his velocity going down and his fastball straightening out as he got into pitch #40 or so... I think he's a relief ace, not a starter....

[Devinep]

Funny to click on a Hader thread and read an Outfield/1B discussion

 

With Hader, it depends on how many pitches in an outing before he stops being elite. Anecdotal, but I remember his velocity going down and his fastball straightening out as he got into pitch #40 or so... I think he's a relief ace, not a starter....

 

If the Brewers are smart bright enough to get over starter/reliever labels, he can still throw just as many innings as a reliever.

-3 innings twice a week instead of 6 innings once a week.

-I can also see the Chris Sale career path for him too

[JohnBriggs12]

I understand the frustrations to a point. However, I think it would be pretty unanimous that Josh Hader makes the Brewers much better in the pen this year than he does in the rotation. Josh Hader alone is probably the difference between this pen being potentially pretty good, and being a potential disaster. He takes all the high leverage innings and reduces everyone else's role. He's the guy who is going to come in a close bases loaded game with Bryce Harper coming up in the 7th, or come up in the 8th in a 1 run game to face the heart of a tough order.

 

I think people get too hung up on the "200 innings is more than 80 innings so 200 innings must be 120 innings more valuable." I think that's an oversimplication -- I don't pretend to know how to exactly quantify it but Hader takes on many more high leverage innings in his role which may make the difference in numerous close games.

Pens are much more specialized than they were in the past.

 

Without him, you've got Knebel for the 9th and a whole lot of question marks before him. With the Brewers recent moves they've obviously put a premium on trying to win this year and Hader in the pen is definitely safer in that regard.

 

Now you could argue that they could have signed some veteran high end pen arms to replace Hader's role in the pen to open things up for his move, but that's not the route they went in the pen. So I'm pretty confident that having gone this way they'll still have another move to make yet for the rotation.

 

If the Brewers feel Hader is a future starter, he'll get his shot. It probably would have been this year if we had won 70 games last year. But make no mistake he can still be very valuable in the role he's going to be in.

 

It's all speculation that he makes the Brewers much better in the pen this year than he does in the rotation. Nobody knows the answer to that question so it's certainly not unanimous. It's a case where they know what they have with him in the pen and they are being risk averse in a year they see themselves as serious contenders. It's comparable to year 2 of Chris Sale. In year one (2010), the White Sox won 88 games. Going into 2011, they had what they thought was a contending rotation. But John Danks regressed. and nobody stepped up and they went 79-83. They had nothing to lose the next year so Sale became a starter. If there's serious regression from guys like Anderson or Davies or anyone they are counting on to start, it might prove to be a mistake not to have him take a shot. Of course if they were going to do that, they would have needed to add more talent to their pen which they haven't done so it appears the decision was made months ago.

[MrTPlush]

If the Brewers thought Josh Hader had a good or even decent chance to be an impact starter he would be in the rotation. He is not and that likely tells us the Brewers don't believe in his stuff translating to the rotation in a way that would be more impactful than him staying a bullpen ace.

[pacopete4]

If the Brewers thought Josh Hader had a good or even decent chance to be an impact starter he would be in the rotation. He is not and that likely tells us the Brewers don't believe in his stuff translating to the rotation in a way that would be more impactful than him staying a bullpen ace.

 

...because they have such a good track record.

[MrTPlush]

If the Brewers thought Josh Hader had a good or even decent chance to be an impact starter he would be in the rotation. He is not and that likely tells us the Brewers don't believe in his stuff translating to the rotation in a way that would be more impactful than him staying a bullpen ace.

 

...because they have such a good track record.

 

Tell Stearns that, just telling it how it is.

[DHonks]

If the Brewers thought Josh Hader had a good or even decent chance to be an impact starter he would be in the rotation. He is not and that likely tells us the Brewers don't believe in his stuff translating to the rotation in a way that would be more impactful than him staying a bullpen ace.

 

I don’t buy this logic at all. Hader currently can’t throw his secondary pitches for strikes. He’s extremely wild in the zone. If he were starting, he’d be at 100 pitches in the 4th inning. Batters are often more patient early in games, and they won’t jump at all his pitches. I like Hader in the pen so he can learn to attack hitters and refine his mechanics. In the long run, I like him as a starter. But until he can consistently hit targets, he needs to work on short 3-9 batter stretches.

[MrTPlush]

If the Brewers thought Josh Hader had a good or even decent chance to be an impact starter he would be in the rotation. He is not and that likely tells us the Brewers don't believe in his stuff translating to the rotation in a way that would be more impactful than him staying a bullpen ace.

 

I don’t buy this logic at all. Hader currently can’t throw his secondary pitches for strikes. He’s extremely wild in the zone. If he were starting, he’d be at 100 pitches in the 4th inning. Batters are often more patient early in games, and they won’t jump at all his pitches. I like Hader in the pen so he can learn to attack hitters and refine his mechanics. In the long run, I like him as a starter. But until he can consistently hit targets, he needs to work on short 3-9 batter stretches.

 

You just explained the logic I said...they don’t want him in the rotation even if there was a spot for him. People are trying to infer adding a starter (Chacin/Gallardo/someone else) is pushing Hader out of the rotation. That is false. There was no situation that was putting him in the rotation this year because the Brewers don’t think he can do it.