Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?

[Thurston Fluff]

I'm fairly slow to criticize managers and GM's. I tend to try to understand why management does something instead of claiming how smart a move it is (or isn't.) For the life of me I cannot understand what benefit there is using Hader like they have been. Not only does it seem to make no sense for this season but I can't see the long term benefit. As Monty57 said we are losing a year of control for a few shaky innings here and there.

[danzig6767]

Why does he have to prove he can't be a starter... when we know that RIGHT NOW he won't prove he can be a starter. His control will not allow him to get deep into games. His seconday offerings are rarely strikes.

It's not just that his secondary pitches are rarely strikes, it's also that he rarely even tries throwing anything except fastballs.

 

Yesterday Hader had two strikes on nearly every batter he faced, but rarely felt confident enough to trust that he could throw a quality enough slider to get a K. Of his 41 pitches, 37 were fastballs.

 

So Twins hitters kept fouling off two strike fastballs, eventually getting hits, walks, and/or jacking up his pitch count in that long 5th inning. Had he thrown a good slider to any of those guys in 2-2 or 3-2 counts, easy strikeout. He's flashed some really nice outings so far, but he's not even a two pitch pitcher at this point, more a 1 1/2 pitch pitcher. On the rare occasions he does throw a quality slider, batters usually look ugly flailing at it. His change up is non-existent.

 

It's pretty amazing that he's been as productive as he's been throwing almost entirely fastballs.

[3and2Fastball]

I don't know how he can be expected to start with just 2 pitches. Maybe if he develops a changeup

[KeithStone53151]

Why does he have to prove he can't be a starter... when we know that RIGHT NOW he won't prove he can be a starter. His control will not allow him to get deep into games. His seconday offerings are rarely strikes.

It's not just that his secondary pitches are rarely strikes, it's also that he rarely even tries throwing anything except fastballs.

 

Yesterday Hader had two strikes on nearly every batter he faced, but rarely felt confident enough to trust that he could throw a quality enough slider to get a K. Of his 41 pitches, 37 were fastballs.

 

So Twins hitters kept fouling off two strike fastballs, eventually getting hits, walks, and/or jacking up his pitch count in that long 5th inning. Had he thrown a good slider to any of those guys in 2-2 or 3-2 counts, easy strikeout. He's flashed some really nice outings so far, but he's not even a two pitch pitcher at this point, more a 1 1/2 pitch pitcher. On the rare occasions he does throw a quality slider, batters usually look ugly flailing at it. His change up is non-existent.

 

It's pretty amazing that he's been as productive as he's been throwing almost entirely fastballs.

 

Except it really isn't as surprising as you seem to suggest. His fastball is an easy plus offering, and plays up even more with a deceptive delivery and arm slot. It seems many of you want to seem him throw off speed stuff as if he's currently auditioning for a starter role. His job is to get outs right now. Up until this outing, most hitters he's faced have been completely overmatched by his fastball. Should he have simply thrown off speed just for sake of throwing off speed...or to appease bf.net posters? It's fairly common for starting pitchers to not unveil their entire arsenal first time through the order. He probably should have mixed in more off speed stuff this outing, but it also is fairly common for guys to stick to the fastball on 2-2 and 3-2 counts to give a higher chance of throwing a strike. I'm sure he'll learn from it and adjust accordingly.

 

You should really watch some video or read scouting reports or do some form of research before making such an ill-informed comment that "he's a 1 1/2 pitch pitcher".

[danzig6767]

 

Except it really isn't as surprising as you seem to suggest. His fastball is an easy plus offering, and plays up even more with a deceptive delivery and arm slot. It seems many of you want to seem him throw off speed stuff as if he's currently auditioning for a starter role. His job is to get outs right now. Up until this outing, most hitters he's faced have been completely overmatched by his fastball. Should he have simply thrown off speed just for sake of throwing off speed...or to appease bf.net posters? It's fairly common for starting pitchers to not unveil their entire arsenal first time through the order. He probably should have mixed in more off speed stuff this outing, but it also is fairly common for guys to stick to the fastball on 2-2 and 3-2 counts to give a higher chance of throwing a strike. I'm sure he'll learn from it and adjust accordingly.

Get out f here with that nonsense about appeasing bf.net posters. It has nothing to do with that. He was fortunate to get out of that jam, but it took him 40 pitches and loading the bases because he couldn't put hitters away with two strikes because he threw almost nothing but fastballs. If he had any confidence at all in his slider, he'd have thrown them more and struck out batters sitting entirely on his fastball.

 

Pitchers with confidence in secondary pitches often use them in 2-2 and 3-2 counts, but Hader doesn't or else he'd thrown his slider more. I have no idea at this point if eventually Hader can cut it as a starter or if he ends up with a career as a relief pitcher, both roles have value in today's baseball with an increased importance of relief pitching. At some point though he's not going to keep getting away with throwing entirely just fastballs, especially to righthanded hitters.

[KeithStone53151]

 

Except it really isn't as surprising as you seem to suggest. His fastball is an easy plus offering, and plays up even more with a deceptive delivery and arm slot. It seems many of you want to seem him throw off speed stuff as if he's currently auditioning for a starter role. His job is to get outs right now. Up until this outing, most hitters he's faced have been completely overmatched by his fastball. Should he have simply thrown off speed just for sake of throwing off speed...or to appease bf.net posters? It's fairly common for starting pitchers to not unveil their entire arsenal first time through the order. He probably should have mixed in more off speed stuff this outing, but it also is fairly common for guys to stick to the fastball on 2-2 and 3-2 counts to give a higher chance of throwing a strike. I'm sure he'll learn from it and adjust accordingly.

Get out f here with that nonsense about appeasing bf.net posters. It has nothing to do with that. He was fortunate to get out of that jam, but it took him 40 pitches and loading the bases because he couldn't put hitters away with two strikes because he threw almost nothing but fastballs. If he had any confidence at all in his slider, he'd have thrown them more and struck out batters sitting entirely on his fastball.

 

Pitchers with confidence in secondary pitches often use them in 2-2 and 3-2 counts, but Hader doesn't or else he'd thrown his slider more. I have no idea at this point if eventually Hader can cut it as a starter or if he ends up with a career as a relief pitcher, both roles have value in today's baseball with an increased importance of relief pitching. At some point though he's not going to keep getting away with throwing entirely just fastballs, especially to righthanded hitters.

 

He probably wouldn't have achieved the success he has if all he has is the big fastball. Did you ever stop and wonder how he made it through the minor league system with the success he's had if he's a 1.5 pitch pitcher? Did you ever think that maybe he doesn't throw his changeup right now because hitters are consistently way behind his fastball and throwing a changeup is absolutely doing the hitter a favor? What is every scout and every prospect ranking system doing listing him as a top prospect with his non-existent changeup and 1.5 pitches...are they all a bunch of idiots that don't know what they are doing? Or maybe you shouldn't pass such massive judgement on one outing, or even the 20+ pro innings he's pitched thusfar(in a different role then he's used to). He's young, in theory he'll learn from his failure yesterday and be better for it.

 

And just on a side, everyone's favorite comp is Chris Sale. In his bullpen stint his first season, Sale threw his changeup around 7% of the time that season while Hader throws his 5%. Just because he isn't throwing it doesn't mean he doesn't have one. Especially considering most scouts rate it an average mlb offering.

[trwi7]

Fangraphs has Hader's change as a well below average pitch. Sale's was above average the second he got to the majors. MLB Pipeline had Hader's changeup at a 45, a below average offering.

[MrTPlush]

We can't afford to have a Josh Hader in the rotation any time soon. He doesn't get deep into games and with his control he is going to throw up complete duds way to often. We can't afford to have the Josh Hader who pitched yesterday. Multiple hits, 3 walks, a hit batter, and 40 pitches while only getting 3 outs? He would destroy our bullpen. Our bullpen cannot handle that.

[paul253]

Should he have simply thrown off speed just for sake of throwing off speed...or to appease bf.net posters

 

He should throw it to get hitters out. But he can't because he can't throw it well enough to do so so he throws the one pitch he can get hitters out with. I get the impression that you think anytime he wants to he can just throw a quality changeup up there but he never does because he doesn't have to. In reality he's not throwing his changeup because it's just not a good pitch.

 

Especially considering most scouts rate it an average mlb offering

 

Do they say it's an average mlb offering or do they say it CAN BE an average MLB offering? Pretty big difference between the two.

 

What is every scout and every prospect ranking system doing listing him as a top prospect with his non-existent changeup and 1.5 pitches...are they all a bunch of idiots that don't know what they are doing

 

From baseball America: He has the stuff to be a dominant left-on-left situational reliever right away, and many evaluators believe that's what his long-term role in the majors will eventually be.

 

It almost seems like you take it personally when people suggest Hader ends up in the bullpen. I haven't seen very many scouting reports that say he is for sure a starter. Most I've seen at the very least say there are questions as to where he ends up and many say that his best role may be the pen. Regardless of minor league success he just does not have the control or the third pitch that most successful major league pitchers have. Beside, he last thing the Brewers need is a starter who pitches 4 or 5 innings every other start. Could he fix these issues? Of course. But until he does it's too hard for me to consider him a starter. With the success he's had in the bullpen I'd be fine keeping him there anyway. We need a dominant back end of the bullpen to shorten games.

[pacopete4]

The only way those pitches will get better is by throwing them.

[KeithStone53151]

Should he have simply thrown off speed just for sake of throwing off speed...or to appease bf.net posters

 

He should throw it to get hitters out. But he can't because he can't throw it well enough to do so so he throws the one pitch he can get hitters out with. I get the impression that you think anytime he wants to he can just throw a quality changeup up there but he never does because he doesn't have to. In reality he's not throwing his changeup because it's just not a good pitch.

 

Especially considering most scouts rate it an average mlb offering

 

Do they say it's an average mlb offering or do they say it CAN BE an average MLB offering? Pretty big difference between the two.

 

What is every scout and every prospect ranking system doing listing him as a top prospect with his non-existent changeup and 1.5 pitches...are they all a bunch of idiots that don't know what they are doing

 

From baseball America: He has the stuff to be a dominant left-on-left situational reliever right away, and many evaluators believe that's what his long-term role in the majors will eventually be.

 

It almost seems like you take it personally when people suggest Hader ends up in the bullpen. I haven't seen very many scouting reports that say he is for sure a starter. Most I've seen at the very least say there are questions as to where he ends up and many say that his best role may be the pen. Regardless of minor league success he just does not have the control or the third pitch that most successful major league pitchers have. Beside, he last thing the Brewers need is a starter who pitches 4 or 5 innings every other start. Could he fix these issues? Of course. But until he does it's too hard for me to consider him a starter. With the success he's had in the bullpen I'd be fine keeping him there anyway. We need a dominant back end of the bullpen to shorten games.

 

I dug a bit deeper and I've seen 45 and 50 grade on his changeup. Fangraphs actually shows it as a 50/60, which I take to mean 50 current and 60 projected. I fully believe he would throw the changeup more often if guys were catching up to his fastball. Regardless, his slider is a very good pitch right now and certainly doesn't qualify as half a pitch. All sources that fangraphs use shows his slider to have had positive value this year, some have the fastball better while others the slider better but both have been positive value pitches. I've seen anywhere from 55-60 grade on the slider. I get the impression most people want no part of Hader in the rotation in 2018 and that's crazy to me. The most likely scenario is he is given a shot to compete for it in 2018, and will be on the short list of 4 or 5 candidates for 2 spots. He has far and away the most upside in the system for a pitcher and people want to relegate him to the bullpen based on 20 innings and not seeing offspeed pitches as often as they desire. He's way too talented to not give him a chance. Sure you may wind up with a Peralta that fails, or you might wind up with a Nelson that works his ass off and improves and fulfills his potential. And the best case scenario for Nelson falls well short of what the best case scenario is for Hader.

 

And no evaluator in the last 2-3 years has said his long term role will likely be a situational lefty. In 2015-2016 most said probably late inning reliever, possible starter. End of 2016 into 2017 many people thought he would stick as a starter with a floor of a dominant reliever. Situational reliever implies he can't get RH hitters out and would be used to face lefties only. His floor in his peak years is a late inning reliever or closer, not a situational guy.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't care what the evaluators have said, we are actually seeing it for ourselves. He has no confidence in his change. He doesn't even know where his FB is going a lot of times, much less his slider or change.

 

The talent is there, and he's a work in progress. I'm not going to act like I know if/when that will happen, we don't know. If he does, he could be a really good starting pitcher for many years. That has always been his ceiling. If not, he can't be a closer let alone a starter.

 

Good news is, what we're seeing is his floor.

[paul253]

He has far and away the most upside in the system for a pitcher and people want to relegate him to the bullpen based on 20 innings and not seeing offspeed pitches as often as they desire

 

My opinion is based on his minor league starts ever since he had been in Milwaukees system. You're right he does have a ton of upside. But he also throws a ton of pitches to get his outs. It's a combination of him being a strikeout pitcher and him having awful control. You cannot have a starter who is consistently going 5 innings. In his time in Milwaukees system he has yet to have one start in which he lasted over six innings. Maybe he is on a pitch count but still. Not one time in almost 40 starts? That's a red flag to me. Add that to the fact that he has yet to develop an even average third pitch and to me that screams bullpen. I don't want him in the bulllen, although I think he'd have more success there. But I think that what his skill set is best suited for.

[AKCheesehead]

What I have to sit and wonder is: What is Milwaukee's plan for his development? If we are in agreement that Hader is going to need to greatly improve his feel and command of an off speed repertoire in order to truly be a successful MLB pitcher, when and how will this happen? His arm only has 74.1 innings on it so far this season. If he's viewed as a starter long term, this is a problem. As long as the Brewers are still in the hunt, it would be hard to justify putting him back in the minors this year. Fall league seems like a stretch. I don't know what is best, but I hope the Brewers brass has a good plan in the works.

[Humans Need Water]

He has far and away the most upside in the system for a pitcher and people want to relegate him to the bullpen based on 20 innings and not seeing offspeed pitches as often as they desire

 

My opinion is based on his minor league starts ever since he had been in Milwaukees system. You're right he does have a ton of upside. But he also throws a ton of pitches to get his outs. It's a combination of him being a strikeout pitcher and him having awful control. You cannot have a starter who is consistently going 5 innings. In his time in Milwaukees system he has yet to have one start in which he lasted over six innings. Maybe he is on a pitch count but still. Not one time in almost 40 starts? That's a red flag to me. Add that to the fact that he has yet to develop an even average third pitch and to me that screams bullpen. I don't want him in the bulllen, although I think he'd have more success there. But I think that what his skill set is best suited for.

LOL when we acquired him he had 7 AA starts to finish the year. 2 of those starts he went 7 innings in 92 and 99 pitches. Another start he went 6 innings in 87 pitches (102 pitches puts him at 7 innings). 3 other starts he went 5 innings in 73 (102 pitches for 7 innings), 81 (101 pitches for 6.1 innings), 99. The other start would be 101 pitches for 5 innings.

 

Last year he had 25 total starts and 10 of those he went 6 innings. He did that in 89, 87, 85, 103 (4h, 2bb), 100, 96, 88, 89, 90, 99. There's another X number of starts where he's going 6 innings if given the pitch count needed. You continuing to say he consistently goes 5 innings is like me saying a guy who went 0-4 "must" have made weak or no contact that game....it's confirmed by simply looking at the box score number.

 

The foundation for your beliefs about Hader are based on nonsense and zero factual evidence. As I started earlier, it's not about innings pitched it's about the number of pitches and if you go look at the number of pitches for Hader over the past few years you'll see he's typically going to be between 6-7 innings if he's given that 100 limit, which MLB pitchers are. Again, go look at Nelson's game logs and pitch counts and let me know what you see.

 

Nobody knows if Hader will be a very good rotation arm or stays in the pen as a dominant closer. But MANY scouts said coming into this year he's likely a rotation arm.

[reillymcshane]

He has far and away the most upside in the system for a pitcher and people want to relegate him to the bullpen based on 20 innings and not seeing offspeed pitches as often as they desire

 

My opinion is based on his minor league starts ever since he had been in Milwaukees system. You're right he does have a ton of upside. But he also throws a ton of pitches to get his outs. It's a combination of him being a strikeout pitcher and him having awful control. You cannot have a starter who is consistently going 5 innings. In his time in Milwaukees system he has yet to have one start in which he lasted over six innings. Maybe he is on a pitch count but still. Not one time in almost 40 starts? That's a red flag to me. Add that to the fact that he has yet to develop an even average third pitch and to me that screams bullpen. I don't want him in the bulllen, although I think he'd have more success there. But I think that what his skill set is best suited for.

LOL when we acquired him he had 7 AA starts to finish the year. 2 of those starts he went 7 innings in 92 and 99 pitches. Another start he went 6 innings in 87 pitches (102 pitches puts him at 7 innings). 3 other starts he went 5 innings in 73 (102 pitches for 7 innings), 81 (101 pitches for 6.1 innings), 99. The other start would be 101 pitches for 5 innings.

 

Last year he had 25 total starts and 10 of those he went 6 innings. He did that in 89, 87, 85, 103 (4h, 2bb), 100, 96, 88, 89, 90, 99. There's another X number of starts where he's going 6 innings if given the pitch count needed. You continuing to say he consistently goes 5 innings is like me saying a guy who went 0-4 "must" have made weak or no contact that game....it's confirmed by simply looking at the box score number.

 

The foundation for your beliefs about Hader are based on nonsense and zero factual evidence. As I started earlier, it's not about innings pitched it's about the number of pitches and if you go look at the number of pitches for Hader over the past few years you'll see he's typically going to be between 6-7 innings if he's given that 100 limit, which MLB pitchers are. Again, go look at Nelson's game logs and pitch counts and let me know what you see.

 

Nobody knows if Hader will be a very good rotation arm or stays in the pen as a dominant closer. But MANY scouts said coming into this year he's likely a rotation arm.

He did say 'over six innings' - so he is technically correct. Josh never threw more than six innings last year.

 

I also think saying someone's beliefs are 'nonsense' is harsh and demeaning. He stated his opinion and added evidence - and you refuted it with your own evidence. Fine. But i's not necessary to demean another person or his/her opinion in the process. Counter them, say you disagree, say you don't like that person's use of the data - but treat them with a little respect.

[monty57]

What I have to sit and wonder is: What is Milwaukee's plan for his development? If we are in agreement that Hader is going to need to greatly improve his feel and command of an off speed repertoire in order to truly be a successful MLB pitcher, when and how will this happen? His arm only has 74.1 innings on it so far this season. If he's viewed as a starter long term, this is a problem. As long as the Brewers are still in the hunt, it would be hard to justify putting him back in the minors this year. Fall league seems like a stretch. I don't know what is best, but I hope the Brewers brass has a good plan in the works.

 

I agree. He's not going to get the innings he should, and if he is indeed not throwing his secondary pitches, they are not going to develop. The current usage is one that could turn a potential top-of-the-rotation starter into a situational reliever.

 

He could definitely use more time in the minors, but the ineptitude of the bullpen was enough that the Brewers brought him up in a pennant race. That decision could help this year's team, but it could really hurt his future. Like you, I really hope there is a plan in place that I'm just not seeing.

[KeithStone53151]

What I have to sit and wonder is: What is Milwaukee's plan for his development? If we are in agreement that Hader is going to need to greatly improve his feel and command of an off speed repertoire in order to truly be a successful MLB pitcher, when and how will this happen? His arm only has 74.1 innings on it so far this season. If he's viewed as a starter long term, this is a problem. As long as the Brewers are still in the hunt, it would be hard to justify putting him back in the minors this year. Fall league seems like a stretch. I don't know what is best, but I hope the Brewers brass has a good plan in the works.

 

I agree. He's not going to get the innings he should, and if he is indeed not throwing his secondary pitches, they are not going to develop. The current usage is one that could turn a potential top-of-the-rotation starter into a situational reliever.

 

He could definitely use more time in the minors, but the ineptitude of the bullpen was enough that the Brewers brought him up in a pennant race. That decision could help this year's team, but it could really hurt his future. Like you, I really hope there is a plan in place that I'm just not seeing.

 

This is one of the primary reasons why I think he gets put into the rotation next year, this along with his stuff/ceiling/milb results. He will surely struggle at times with command and take his lumps, but the alternative is either more time in AAA or full time relief duty. And we've seen 3+ innings stints this year of sheer dominance, I'm sure he'll have some similarly dominant outings as a starter to go with the outings in which he struggles. Most guys aren't going to come up to the MLB level and have nothing but tremendous success immediately. Hader having some struggles in 2018 will be completely worth it if he learns from it and further develops at the mlb level.

[paul253]

LOL when we acquired him he had 7 AA starts to finish the year. 2 of those starts he went 7 innings in 92 and 99 pitches. Another start he went 6 innings in 87 pitches (102 pitches puts him at 7 innings). 3 other starts he went 5 innings in 73 (102 pitches for 7 innings), 81 (101 pitches for 6.1 innings), 99. The other start would be 101 pitches for 5 innings.

 

I apologize I forgot the few starts he had when had first came here. So in his two plus years here he's gone at least 7 innings in two of his 44 starts. Ill add that in 2015 those were the only two starts in which he went 7 innings all year (he had 10 more starts prior to coming here) so in the past 3 seasons he's had starts of at least 7 innings in 2 of 54 starts.

 

The foundation for your beliefs about Hader are based on nonsense and zero factual evidence.

 

My beliefs are based entirely on the numbers. If anything is not based on factual evidence its yours, using pitches per inning averages to tell me exactly how many pitches he would have had if he had been allowed to pitch another inning. Because that's how it works right? If you average 17 pitches for the first 6 innings then obviously you'll have 17 pitches in the 7th inning? And that pattern repeats itself for every single start?

 

You bring up the fact that last year he had 10 starts out of 25 in which he lasted 6 innings (as if that somehow helps your case). What about the 8 that he last fewer than 5 innings? 4 innings pitched and pitch counts of 84, 83, 87, 96 (that's 168 pitches for 7 innings using your logic by the way), and 73. 3 innings with pitch counts of 71 and 72. 3 2/3 innings with 85 pitches. Or what about his 5 inning starts? Pitch counts of 87, 86, 102 and 88. Maybe this year is doing better? His last three starts prior to coming up: 2 innings, 2 innings, and 3 innings. 43 pitches, 39 pitches and 74 pitches. The start before that 4.1 innings 92 pitches. Before that 5 innings 84 pitches.

 

Could he have gone another inning in any or all of these starts? Maybe. Maybe not. Why is he being taken out after only 73 pitches? Is it always to keep his pitch count low or could it be because he just isn't pitching that well, in which case his pitch count is irrelevant. But really what difference does it make? He's simply throwing too many pitches and not lasting long enough consistently to be a good major league starter. Maybe he isn't "consistently" only going 5 innings. But he's going 5 and less a hell of a lot more often than he's going 6 and more.

 

and if you go look at the number of pitches for Hader over the past few years you'll see he's typically going to be between 6-7 innings if he's given that 100 limit, which MLB pitchers are

 

You'll have to define "typically" but I think I've shown that this is just plain wrong. He would not "typically" last 6 or 7 innings if he were allowed to go 100+ pitches. Maybe in a few of them. But again, why is he not going more pitches in some of these starts? Your implication that its all about pitch count is not accurate Even so, 100-110 pitches is still a lot of pitches to be throwing in that in 6 innings

 

And what of the fact that major leaguers are less likely to swing at stuff out of the zone than minor leaguers? So it's entirely possible that his pitch count would actually go up once he starts here is it not? He's doing great out of the bullpen but would he have the same success when guys see him for a second or third time?

 

Nobody knows if Hader will be a very good rotation arm or stays in the pen as a dominant closer. But MANY scouts said coming into this year he's likely a rotation arm.

 

Again, I have yet to see any scouting reports saying that he is for sure a starting pitcher. Almost every report I've seen (and admittedly I havent gone out of my way to look for them) has serious questions about his ability to stay a starter because of his command and quality third pitch. You are certainly welcome to your opinion. But I am welcome to mine as well. And mine is that until he developes an at least average third pitch and his command improves and/or he learns to pitch to contact better and can CONSISTENTLY go 6 or 7 innings then he is not a major league starter.

[paul253]

Again, go look at Nelson's game logs and pitch counts and let me know what you see.

 

So I went back to the 2014 Nashville Sounds to look at Jimmy Nelson's game logs. What I see is him going 6 or more innings in every single one of his outings except one (that would be 16 of 17 starts). His average pitches per game was 96 pitches. In 2016 Josh Hader's average pitch count was 88 pitches. So in 2014 Nelson lasted 6+ innings in 16 of 17 starts (94%) and in 2016 Hader lasted 6+ innings in 10 of 25 starts (40%). You imply that if only Hader had been allowed to throw as many pitches his innings would be similar to Nelson's and yet it is my beliefs that are "nonsense" and not based on factual evidence? Your entire argument is one big assumption.

 

In 2013 between Huntsville and Nashville, Nelson's number were more similar to Hader's 2016 numbers. He lasted 6+ in 11 of 27 starts (about 40%) and averaged 91 pitches per game. He did go at least 7 innings three times, which is more than Hader has done his entire time in Milwaukee's organization. In Huntsville in 2012 he only went 6+ innings in 1 of 10 starts and averaged 80 pitches per start (His pitch counts in BC weren't available where I'm looking).

 

What do I see when I look at Nelson? I see improvement. I see him getting better at each year both in the number of pitches thrown and how many innings he's able to make those pitches last through. Now I realize Colorado Springs is a wild card here so don't think i'm not recognizing it. But Hader was in his second season there when he started this year and his numbers got worse, whereas like I said, Nelson's got better, at least in the terms we are talking about here. If Hader was showing improvement in his command perhaps I'd feel better but I don't see it. His BB/9 was 3.0 in 2015. It went up to 3.9 in 2016 and was 5.4 this season before being promoted, where it is currently 6.9. Nelson, for comparison sake, went from 4.4 in 2012 to 3.8 in 2013 to 2.6 in 2014 in Nashville and then 2.5 in 14 games after he got promoted here.

 

That's what I see when I compare the two. What do you see, other than simply the number of pitches each has thrown, which in the scheme of things is pretty meaningless?

[monty57]

While there is disagreement on his future role, it seems that most agree that Hader needs to work on his command and his secondary pitches (at least on his change-up). I can't believe that the 22.1 IP he's received as a Brewer has been overly meaningful to the Brewers' success, and it can't be helping him work on what he needs to work on. I think we're going to look back on the decision to call him up rather than letting him continue as a starter in CS as a mistake.

[KeithStone53151]

LOL when we acquired him he had 7 AA starts to finish the year. 2 of those starts he went 7 innings in 92 and 99 pitches. Another start he went 6 innings in 87 pitches (102 pitches puts him at 7 innings). 3 other starts he went 5 innings in 73 (102 pitches for 7 innings), 81 (101 pitches for 6.1 innings), 99. The other start would be 101 pitches for 5 innings.

 

I apologize I forgot the few starts he had when had first came here. So in his two plus years here he's gone at least 7 innings in two of his 44 starts. Ill add that in 2015 those were the only two starts in which he went 7 innings all year (he had 10 more starts prior to coming here) so in the past 3 seasons he's had starts of at least 7 innings in 2 of 54 starts.

 

The foundation for your beliefs about Hader are based on nonsense and zero factual evidence.

 

My beliefs are based entirely on the numbers. If anything is not based on factual evidence its yours, using pitches per inning averages to tell me exactly how many pitches he would have had if he had been allowed to pitch another inning. Because that's how it works right? If you average 17 pitches for the first 6 innings then obviously you'll have 17 pitches in the 7th inning? And that pattern repeats itself for every single start?

 

You bring up the fact that last year he had 10 starts out of 25 in which he lasted 6 innings (as if that somehow helps your case). What about the 8 that he last fewer than 5 innings? 4 innings pitched and pitch counts of 84, 83, 87, 96 (that's 168 pitches for 7 innings using your logic by the way), and 73. 3 innings with pitch counts of 71 and 72. 3 2/3 innings with 85 pitches. Or what about his 5 inning starts? Pitch counts of 87, 86, 102 and 88. Maybe this year is doing better? His last three starts prior to coming up: 2 innings, 2 innings, and 3 innings. 43 pitches, 39 pitches and 74 pitches. The start before that 4.1 innings 92 pitches. Before that 5 innings 84 pitches.

 

Could he have gone another inning in any or all of these starts? Maybe. Maybe not. Why is he being taken out after only 73 pitches? Is it always to keep his pitch count low or could it be because he just isn't pitching that well, in which case his pitch count is irrelevant. But really what difference does it make? He's simply throwing too many pitches and not lasting long enough consistently to be a good major league starter. Maybe he isn't "consistently" only going 5 innings. But he's going 5 and less a hell of a lot more often than he's going 6 and more.

 

and if you go look at the number of pitches for Hader over the past few years you'll see he's typically going to be between 6-7 innings if he's given that 100 limit, which MLB pitchers are

 

You'll have to define "typically" but I think I've shown that this is just plain wrong. He would not "typically" last 6 or 7 innings if he were allowed to go 100+ pitches. Maybe in a few of them. But again, why is he not going more pitches in some of these starts? Your implication that its all about pitch count is not accurate Even so, 100-110 pitches is still a lot of pitches to be throwing in that in 6 innings

 

And what of the fact that major leaguers are less likely to swing at stuff out of the zone than minor leaguers? So it's entirely possible that his pitch count would actually go up once he starts here is it not? He's doing great out of the bullpen but would he have the same success when guys see him for a second or third time?

 

Nobody knows if Hader will be a very good rotation arm or stays in the pen as a dominant closer. But MANY scouts said coming into this year he's likely a rotation arm.

 

Again, I have yet to see any scouting reports saying that he is for sure a starting pitcher. Almost every report I've seen (and admittedly I havent gone out of my way to look for them) has serious questions about his ability to stay a starter because of his command and quality third pitch. You are certainly welcome to your opinion. But I am welcome to mine as well. And mine is that until he developes an at least average third pitch and his command improves and/or he learns to pitch to contact better and can CONSISTENTLY go 6 or 7 innings then he is not a major league starter.

 

Comparing Nelson to Hader isn't apples to apples as Nelson was a college draftee and older and there wasn't as much concern with his innings. He threw plenty in college and 142 innings his first full season. Note how Ponce and Burnes were allowed into the 100 pitch area and reaching 7 innings often. Only recently did the Brewers start limiting Burnes to 70-80 pitches and 5-6 innings. I think the brewers were intentionally trying to limit Hader's innings at AA so he wouldn't blow by his innings limit in July. Hence him getting pulled after 5 innings and 80 pitches pretty consistently. It should be blatantly obvious that if allowed to throw into the 100 pitch range, he would last longer than 5 innings in a majority of his starts. I'm sure you can find a few where he was mid-upper 90s after 5 innings, but the majority of the time he was in the low 80s and absolutely prepared to go deeper into the game. Grabbing his last 3 starts prior to MLB promotion of low innings is meaningless as he was being groomed for a 2017 bullpen role and that was planned. I think monty hit the main point that we all agree Hader isn't a final product. I'm in the camp that come 2018, him and Woodruff should have the inside track on the final 2 rotation spots heading into spring training. The alternatives are to send him back to the launching pad where it's impossible to work on consistency, send him to the MLB bullpen full time, or send him to AA. Far and away, the best option is to let him take his lumps at the MLB level next season. I think he'll have enough success to help the team, and improve at a much faster rate than he would at any of the other alternative options. Just because we are having unexpected success this year doesn't mean we stray from the plan. Draft/acquire/develop young talent.

[paul253]

Look I said my piece and I think I backed it up pretty well. While others who have been brought up like Nelson and Burnes are consistently going 6 and 7 innings Hader is not. Hader in the last two seasons has gone under 5 innings more than he's gone over 5 innings. If you want to tell yourselves it's only because the Brewers are limiting his pitch count then so be it. I'm a little disappointed that you looked at my last two posts and only see me taking his last three starts being being promoted (it was actually five) but whatever. The point was not so much how many innings he pitched but the fact that each of the innings were close to or over an average of 20 pitches so even if he wasn't being groomed for the bullpen he would have likely fallen short of 7 innings as usual. In two and a half seasons here he's hit 7 innings twice. That's significantly less often than Nelson Burnes and Woodruff. Again, if you're convinced that that is strictly becuase they are limiting his pitches and has nothing to do with how he's pitching then you're certainly entitled to your opinion.

 

I disagree that is it obvious that he'd hit 7 innings most of the time if only he'd be allowed to hit 100 pitches. I think if he were allowed to hit 100 pitches he'd finish 6 innings fairly often (though still much less often then the others who have been brought up). But again I'm skeptical that they are still limiting him to 80-85 pitches. I think him being pulled early is more in how he's pitching vs how many pitches he's throwing.

 

His command is not good. Every scout who looks at him sees it and you can see it yourself by simply watching him pitch. And as others have pointed out he lacks a quality third pitch. So bad command. Lack of third pitch. Inability to pitch deep into games (6 innings seems to be his absolute limit in 90% of his starts). THat screams bullpen to me.

[pacopete4]

Not saying he will be or won't be but Randy Johnson didn't have control when he was young. He didn't average less than 5 BB/9 until he was 29'years old and most years it was over 6. I would hate for the Brewers not to give a chance to a guy like Hader with such an electric arm.

 

Some other comparisons were that RJ had no offspeed that he could rely on either. He eventually figured it out and well, you know the rest.

[adambr2]

Stearns confirmed today that although he does not rule out Hader transitioning to a starting role sometime in the future, he will be pitching out of the bullpen in 2018.