Josh Hader: Starter, closer, or bullpen ace?

[BigDaddy1974]

I would love to see what he can do as a starter but what the Brewers probably already know is that in the worst case scenario he is an absolutely filthy reliever that could be in the Andrew Miller mold. That is extremely valuable in today's game. I don't think it would hurt to give him a chance to start but I believe he is a weapon out of the bullpen. One which I cannot recall the Brewers having in recent history. You might have to go back to Fingers to find a reliever who was as potentially valuable. I might be getting way ahead of myself but it would not surprise me at all if he becomes the next Andrew Miller type. That is exciting.

[KeithStone53151]

I don't think Hader will have a problem throwing more secondary stuff the second and third time through an order if they start catching up to the fastball

 

Assuming he can even make it to the third time through the order.

 

Absolutely ridiculous comment. Because he's been getting so rocked this entire big league stint...and he's struggled so much in the minor leagues when guys saw him 2-3 times in a game. He may not make it as a starter, but he won't be the dumpster fire you seem to think. Then again, you'd have traded half our farm for Sonny Gray if you ran the show.

[KeithStone53151]

While it seems clear the Brewers are content with Hader in the bullpen for the rest of the season, where does he go from here in 2018?

 

Its going to be hard to give him a rotation spot at least to start 2018 at the MLB level, given the competition. You'd also like to not further weaken the weak point of this team when he's been very successful in his role. But you also don't want to get too far away from him starting if you think his future is a high end starter.

 

If you're going to groom him in the pen, you could be looking at a future closer, or perhaps a 'bullpen ace' situational type role. Where can he be the most successful and provide the best value to the team?

 

Been saying for close to a month that I dont see him in the rotation in 2018. I don't want him in the rotation... yet. I have no issues with starting his clock in the pen and having him continue to work on the secondary stuff. The Sale comps on his fastball seem legit. Guys don't see it... can't catch it. If he rounds out the arsenal then he has ACE potential. Not TOR... ACE. Until he does he's very likely a very good starter... 3 range with low ip counts. Instead of taking pressure off a bullpen he'd add pressure to the pen.

 

But having a dude like him who can take the ball from suter davies woodruff when they are rocky and not only put out the fire but carry a few innings. That turns losses into wins. He could be that wipe out weapon even leaning heavy on the FB. We've also seen the price for Miller via trade via contract. It's staggering because its worth it. Hader being a pen weapon... a momentum switch... isn't short changing his prospect status and expected worth in the least.

 

Nelson Anderson Suter Woodruff Davies Garza... until 2 fall off a cliff (garza traded?) there is zero reason to move hader to the rotation. His arsenal says no currently and the need is low. On the other hand... knebel CL barnes 6/7 hughes 6 and I see a pretty big need.

 

Having knebel swarzak with barnes hughes and a weapon in hader has the pen looking impressive as of late.

 

If hader has the upside you suggest, doesn't it seem a bit silly to have hader behind really any of them for a rotation spot in 2018? Especially the back end guys like Garza, Davies, and suter. Sale is worlds more valuable than miller, an ace trumps a shut down reliever all day.

[danzig6767]

 

If hader has the upside you suggest, doesn't it seem a bit silly to have hader behind really any of them for a rotation spot in 2018? Especially the back end guys like Garza, Davies, and suter. Sale is worlds more valuable than miller, an ace trumps a shut down reliever all day.

I'd love for Hader to cut it as a starter and i get why people look the throwing mechanics, body type, and velocity of Hader and like to compare him with Chris Sale. That said, the odds of him becoming anywhere near as good as Sale are pretty slim.

 

Sale was a first round pick who quickly reached the majors and never struggled much with command issues. He's a top 2 or 3 pitcher in the game. Hader is only 23 though and while i think the odds are pretty slim that he would become a dominant ace starter, he should be given more chances as a starter before just assigning him to the bullpen.

[danzig6767]

I know that the best case scenario for Hader is that he becomes a starter. However, I suspect that the club might use him as a reliever going forward.

 

I have no proof or anything - just a hunch.

 

Hader's fastball/slider combo would be devastating in the bullpen. He can forget about trying to throw his change up - which doesn't seem to want to ever really come around. The club will let him focus on the things he does well - and let him be really good at that.

I don't think it's a necessity for Hader to have a reliable change up to stick as a quality starter, but he would have to develop much better command of his slider.

 

Ben Sheets for example was pretty much just a two pitch starter, fastball and curve. With Ben though, he had impeccable command of both pitches in his prime.

[TJseven7]

He doesn't come close to Sale without added control and a rounded out arsenal. He can come close to Miller as is.

 

I think moving him into the rotation now is putting him in position to fail while alleviating zero stress on the BP (and adding stress from not being in the BP) as he completes his development. I think he can complete his development in the pen while being a huge positive weapon.

 

If he went to the rotation as is I'd expect to see something like Vince Velazquez last year. 5.45 ip/start... 4.12 era...3.5 bb/9(I think hader would have that even higher). That's a waste. It mitigates his value.

 

Is SP Velazquez better than Garza Davies Suter? No! Is Velazquez better than them talent wise... just like Hader...easily! I'd hate to see Hader in the rotation putting up numbers no better than Davies Suter Garza as he figures it out... when he could be a force in the pen while he figures it out.

 

Right now his shortcomings are hidden in the pen due to short outings and stuff overriding control due to seeing batters twice at most. That won't be the case in the rotation.

 

Unless you believe he can't develop control and secondary offerings without starting... there is zero reason to make him a starter now.

 

He is here for 2 reasons.

1 Already has a MLB dominant pen arm.

2 CS wasn't helping him develop.

[TJseven7]

I'd love for Hader to cut it as a starter and i get why people look the throwing mechanics, body type, and velocity of Hader and like to compare him with Chris Sale. That said, the odds of him becoming anywhere near as good as Sale are pretty slim.

 

I heard the Sale talk as he was coming up and after seeing him I think it goes a bit further than mechanics body type velocity. Mechanics are part of this but Hader also has that same "hidden" release point that makes his FB velocity seem even higher than it is. Like Sale, batters can't seem to catch up to it. It's 95 but it also jumps on them. That's a nasty weapon. That's where the Sale comps end so far.

 

I don't think that part of the comp is an exaggeration though. Lots of work needed for Hader to rival Sale. But he's got that gift and the potential.

[paul253]

Absolutely ridiculous comment. Because he's been getting so rocked this entire big league stint...and he's struggled so much in the minor leagues when guys saw him 2-3 times in a game.

 

No, because......as I said....... since he's come to Milwaukee he's only averaged about five innings per start in the minors. If guys are seeing him three times in five innings then yes he is getting rocked. But that's not what I was getting at. As I said he tends to throw a lot of pitches and doesn't last long into games as a starter.....hence my questioning as to guys actually seeing him three times. I'm sorry that I disagree with you on his ability to be a starter but I just don't see it at this point.

 

Then again, you'd have traded half our farm for Sonny Gray if you ran the show

 

You claim I made a "absolutely ridiculous comment" and then you say this? Rich. It's amazing how many times I can say something and yet you still see something else. If you honestly think I was willing to "trade half our farm" for Sonny Gray then I suggest you reread that thread and figure out exactly what it is I was willing to give up for him because I made it pretty darn clear. I'll give you a hint......I can pretty much guarantee it wasn't "half the farm". Nice try though.

[Ennder]

It isn't impossible to be a starter with just 2 pitches but it is very hard to do and it usually means you have to have great fastball command to be able to spot it inside and outside, up and down. Hader is nowhere near that type of command. The current Hader most likely would not make it as a starter. That doesn't mean he can't hone the command and become one, but I think it is going to be a rocky road that is going to take multiple seasons of struggling later in games to do it.

[Humans Need Water]

Absolutely ridiculous comment. Because he's been getting so rocked this entire big league stint...and he's struggled so much in the minor leagues when guys saw him 2-3 times in a game.

 

No, because......as I said....... since he's come to Milwaukee he's only averaged about five innings per start in the minors. If guys are seeing him three times in five innings then yes he is getting rocked. But that's not what I was getting at. As I said he tends to throw a lot of pitches and doesn't last long into games as a starter.....hence my questioning as to guys actually seeing him three times. I'm sorry that I disagree with you on his ability to be a starter but I just don't see it at this point.

 

Then again, you'd have traded half our farm for Sonny Gray if you ran the show

 

You claim I made a "absolutely ridiculous comment" and then you say this? Rich. It's amazing how many times I can say something and yet you still see something else. If you honestly think I was willing to "trade half our farm" for Sonny Gray then I suggest you reread that thread and figure out exactly what it is I was willing to give up for him because I made it pretty darn clear. I'll give you a hint......I can pretty much guarantee it wasn't "half the farm". Nice try though.

Where's the evidence for this when factoring in all variables? And why are we only looking at him after we acquired him and not before when he was in A+ and AA with Houston? Further, why does anyone factor in anything CS related for pitchers that aren't fastball/change dominant (not just speaking of Hader but Woodruff pounds the zone and his BB9 was 4.5 this year in AAA)? Go look at Hader's game logs. The vast majority of the time if he's allowed to throw near 100 pitches, like Counsell allows for unless you're Garza, then he's definitely throwing 6-7 innings on average per start from 2014-2016....prior to AAA. Sure there's starts mixed in where he'd only go 4-5 still but that's not where he'd typically end up. These guys are typically on pitch limits, not innings limits. So if he throws 5 innings in 83 pitches how can you say he averages 5 innings per start without factoring in he'd actually be back out there throwing another inning before being removed at the MLB level? Compare that to the game logs of Nelson this year and you won't see much difference regarding the number of innings one would typically throw if given 100 pitches or so.

 

"...two years ago I would have given him close to zero shot, now that’s probably up to 40 to 50 percent..." - Keith Law (early 2017) referring to him as a starter and he's always been more bullish on Hader than most scouts/analysts. He won't rank anybody in his Top 100 if he thinks they're a pen arm and Hader was 71.

 

Coming into this year many more scouts believed Hader sticks in the rotation than the pen partly because of his time in A+, AA spanning parts of 2014-2016 his BB9 averages out around 3.0 while being very young for age level and performing very well.

 

I also don't think people should read too much into his control/BB9 this year with the Brewers given he's in a new role that he's never 100% been in before. He had a 4 inning stretch recently (spanning 4 appearances) where he didn't give up a walk, which was followed by 1BB in 3ip vs Cubs. It's evident he's been pitching much better as the season progresses and he gets more comfortable in this role.

 

All that said, Hader should absolutely be given every chance in the rotation and if it doesn't work out then you know he'll be a dominant pen arm, hopefully being used in the mold of Miller. Next year you can easily have a rotation of Nelson, Chase, Hader, Woodruff, Davies. Stearns will absolutely target pen arms in the off season to revamp that pen making it lock down, which I hope includes resigning Swarzak. And there is no way guys like Suter, Guerra, Jungmann, etc should be in competition with the likes of Hader and Woodruff for rotation spots. The ceilings aren't in the same atmosphere.

[benji]

Well I agree with most what you said above, but if Suter peripherals keep up you got to keep him in the rotation. I was a big doubter of Suter, but I have to admit I am starting to come around on him.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[paul253]

Where's the evidence for this when factoring in all variables? And why are we only looking at him after we acquired him and not before when he was in A+ and AA with Houston

 

My evidence of what? I'm simply looking at his and his innings pitched. No that's not a perfect stat but I have neither the time nor quite honestly the interest to look at five years of his game logs and figure out how many pitches he throws. Silly me assumes if he's pitching well and not throwing too many pitches he can at least through six innings. If you want to throw out 18 different stats to back your claim that he can be a starter fine. You're certainly entitled to your opinion. But from the times I have seen him pitch, the stats that I look at showing he usually doesn't get through six innings (only three times in his last ten starts in CS did he reach six innings for instance) and his walks per 9 at levels that would be seriously damaging to a starting pitcher it is my personal belief that he is not destined to be a starter.

 

On a side note, between this thread and the Sonny Gray thread some people are getting WAY too upset about others not holding the same ridiculously high opinion of our pitching prospects as they do. It's nothing personal against Hader. I just don't see him as a starter. His command, in my opinion, just is not good enough and he is going to struggle with his pitch counts, just like what has happened in CS the last season and a half. I could very well be wrong. I hope I am wrong. But for the love of Pete take a breath. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

[JosephC]

Hader will finish this season in the bullpen and I'd guess chances are about 90% that he's pegged for a bullpen job to begin 2018, what happens after that depends on him and how his control improves.

 

I've honestly been so impressed with Hader's slider that I think he might actually be an effective starter with only two pitches. It can be done but obviously the pitcher needs to have really elite stuff. Greg Maddux was a fastball, change-up, curveball pitcher early in his career but when he hit his peak he went with fastball/change-up about 95% of the time and only threw something else 2 or 3 times a game for reasons unknown (probably just to mess with a hitter's mind). Randy Johnson was mainly fastball/slider during his peak years and really didn't throw much of anything else. I don't know if Hader's fastball movement/location will ever be good enough where he could get away with being a 2-pitch starter...but I'm already leaning towards thinking his slider could be that good.

[StearnsFTW]

i think he is a starter, just not this season. he wouldn't be the first top prospect to get his MLB feet wet in the pen for his first season.

 

Just like Chris Sale.

 

And I am 100% certain that the Hader story will continue exactly like Sale's has.

[jjfanec]

I just don't understand why people are so quick to right off Hader as a starter. I feel like you have to let a guy fail as a starter before moving him to the pen. Hader has not failed. And if he does become a reliever Counsel needs to commit to him as a multiple inning reliever until it is apparent he can't do that. His WHIP is almost done to 1. Over a strikeout per inning. Obviously the walks need to come down but guys struggle to get good contact against him.

[StearnsFTW]

I just don't understand why people are so quick to right off Hader as a starter. I feel like you have to let a guy fail as a starter before moving him to the pen. Hader has not failed. And if he does become a reliever Counsel needs to commit to him as a multiple inning reliever until it is apparent he can't do that. His WHIP is almost done to 1. Over a strikeout per inning. Obviously the walks need to come down but guys struggle to get good contact against him.

I understand what you're saying, but at this point he really doesn't command any of his pitches. Take some velocity away by asking him to throw 100 pitches instead of 30 and I could see him getting hit hard.

 

He certainly can still do it, but improved command is a must.

[jjfanec]

I just don't understand why people are so quick to right off Hader as a starter. I feel like you have to let a guy fail as a starter before moving him to the pen. Hader has not failed. And if he does become a reliever Counsel needs to commit to him as a multiple inning reliever until it is apparent he can't do that. His WHIP is almost done to 1. Over a strikeout per inning. Obviously the walks need to come down but guys struggle to get good contact against him.

I understand what you're saying, but at this point he really doesn't command any of his pitches. Take some velocity away by asking him to throw 100 pitches instead of 30 and I could see him getting hit hard.

 

He certainly can still do it, but improved command is a must.

 

He may not be a starter but he needs to prove he can't is my main post. I mean we run Garza, Guerra, Suter, etc out there so we can probably afford to give Hader some run (next year not this)

[OnTheBlack]

While it seems clear the Brewers are content with Hader in the bullpen for the rest of the season, where does he go from here in 2018?

 

Its going to be hard to give him a rotation spot at least to start 2018 at the MLB level, given the competition. You'd also like to not further weaken the weak point of this team when he's been very successful in his role. But you also don't want to get too far away from him starting if you think his future is a high end starter.

 

If you're going to groom him in the pen, you could be looking at a future closer, or perhaps a 'bullpen ace' situational type role. Where can he be the most successful and provide the best value to the team?

 

 

I could see the Brewers giving him even one more year as a reliever...albeit one who gets more run and who pitches more regularly and then becomes a starter. Maybe he even becomes a starter during the year next year similar to what the Twins did with Santana(yes, different situations, but the end result may be the same).

 

If I had to put money on the table and say where is he gonna help us out the most, I would probably say in an Andrew Miller type role(though as much as I like him, he's not Miller). But I would certainly like to see him given a shot to be a starting pitcher.

 

The Brewers are closer than they've been since Nick Neugabauer, Ben Sheets, Jeff D'Amico and JM Gold were all in their organization to having what could be a really solid home grown rotation. It's possible we could see a rotation of Nelson, Hader, Woodruff, Barnes, Ortiz and maybe a Peralta or any number of other options mixed in there as well.

[MrTPlush]

I don't know if Hader can throw 98 consistently as a starter. He's much more hittable cruising at 93-94, although his slider is filthy. I like him more coming out of the pen blazing 98

 

He doesn't consistently throw 98.

[OnTheBlack]

I don't know if Hader can throw 98 consistently as a starter. He's much more hittable cruising at 93-94, although his slider is filthy. I like him more coming out of the pen blazing 98

 

He doesn't consistently throw 98.

 

Ok, change it to 97. He can consistently crank it up to 97 when he needs to.

 

But that's not really the point. The question is can he maintain his velocity through 100 pitches as a starter. But isn't that kinda the question with every young pitcher?

 

I do know that he can't possibly maintain his nearly 6BB/9 IP ratio as a starter, but hopefully he can clean that up. It does seem like his fastball gets on hitters a little quicker because of his delivery and he may still have a little bit of projection left in him.

 

I see Fangraphs has his changeup rated as a 50 right now with a potential future grade of 60 for what that's worth. I think his ability to hit that grade answers the question as to where his future lies. For reference sake his fastball is 60/60 and his slider is 55/60. So at least they view his changeup as being a more than viable 3rd pitch.

[StearnsFTW]

I just don't understand why people are so quick to right off Hader as a starter. I feel like you have to let a guy fail as a starter before moving him to the pen. Hader has not failed. And if he does become a reliever Counsel needs to commit to him as a multiple inning reliever until it is apparent he can't do that. His WHIP is almost done to 1. Over a strikeout per inning. Obviously the walks need to come down but guys struggle to get good contact against him.

I understand what you're saying, but at this point he really doesn't command any of his pitches. Take some velocity away by asking him to throw 100 pitches instead of 30 and I could see him getting hit hard.

 

He certainly can still do it, but improved command is a must.

 

He may not be a starter but he needs to prove he can't is my main post. I mean we run Garza, Guerra, Suter, etc out there so we can probably afford to give Hader some run (next year not this)

 

Agree pretty much. Garza and Suter have been pretty good though.

[TJseven7]

Why does he have to prove he can't be a starter... when we know that RIGHT NOW he won't prove he can be a starter. His control will not allow him to get deep into games. His seconday offerings are rarely strikes.

 

He needs to sort that out. I've called for him to be in the pen for 2017 and now 2018. Yet, I'm no where near writing him off as a starter. He's not ready to be a starter yet. It's foolish to see if he can cut it there now because he likely won't in his current state and that would prove nothing in regards to his ability to start once he refines his control.

 

He's up now because he's so talented that he's already useful... he's not up because he's ready.

[clancyphile]

Why does he have to prove he can't be a starter... when we know that RIGHT NOW he won't prove he can be a starter. His control will not allow him to get deep into games. His seconday offerings are rarely strikes.

 

He needs to sort that out. I've called for him to be in the pen for 2017 and now 2018. Yet, I'm no where near writing him off as a starter. He's not ready to be a starter yet. It's foolish to see if he can cut it there now because he likely won't in his current state and that would prove nothing in regards to his ability to start once he refines his control.

 

He's up now because he's so talented that he's already useful... he's not up because he's ready.

 

Hader's floor is as a relief ace/closer. Yet the depth the Brewers have is probably going to keep him at his floor through 2018. He will need to be stretched out as a starter, though, because he has much more value there if he succeeds.

 

But in 2018, a combo of Jeffress/Hader/Knebel at the back end looks very good to me. Figure Wang and Guerra will also paly parts in the pen.

[TJseven7]

He's at his floor because his control is keeping him there. I dont believe his advancement as a pitcher is dependent on being in the rotation. His advancement in value does depend on it. His innings could be upped in the pen... not as easily but it can... his control can as well. Unless you believe he can only gain control by being a starter I don't see how you can argue that.

 

Right now he's at his floor in usage and competence. He can get closer to his ceiling in usage in the pen... and much closer to his ceiling in overall competence in the pen.

 

The key thing in what you say is if he succeeds. We'll see that train coming down the tracks in the pen... where he's currently valuable... just as easy as we would in the rotation... where hes likely last years valezquez at this point... whuch isn't very valuable.

 

So do you prefer value now... and if he develops a delay in stretching him to his pinnacle. Or making him rotation bound in the hopes he'll hit his pinnacle faster... despite the fact that his value to the team will likely dramatically drop as he finds his way?

 

I like option 1.

[monty57]

TJseven7, I don't disagree with you, and I think that's all fine as long as money doesn't matter, but it does. My concern is that we will "groom him" in the majors during his pre-arby years, and then get 1.5 - 2.5 years of him as a starter before we trade him away. The team that eventually signs him to a big-money deal when he's entering his prime will be very pleased that we used all of his service time "grooming him" and kept innings down so they're less worried about him getting injured.

 

The Brewers need to maximize the value of their players. I don't think bringing prospects up before they're ready is maximizing value. They did it with Arcia and they're doing it with Hader. Maybe they just don't want players spending time at Colorado Springs, but they're going to lose their top players sooner because they're bringing them up before they're ready.

 

Hader's been up nearly two months (June 9 call-up) and has 21.1 IP. For some reason, people are happy that Hader's first year of service time will net the Brewers around 40 IP, and will not give him enough innings to even have consideration for a rotation spot in 2018. If you're going to burn a year to try to help the team make the playoffs, at least use the guy every now & then.