Brent Suter

[JohnBriggs12]

Jake Arrieta was on The Score earlier in this week and the host asked him about Suter. You know the usual why more pitchers don't try that approach if it keeps hitters off balance. Arrieta responded by saying besides the pace that though he doesn't have big velocity that Suter gets movement and is tough to square up. In short, his "stuff" is better than he gets credit for because he commands it well and his fastball has cutting action on it. That and a breaking ball he can throw in any count and a good changeup.

[newrivervalley]

Exactly.

[clancyphile]

It is easy to just dismiss him because of the velocity but it is also poor analysis. He induces a ton of pop outs which are as good as Ks. He has pretty elite control with only a 5.8% walk which is in line with his minor stats. He throws a lot of first pitch strikes which is an awesome skill to have, induces a lot of ground balls which is great. The single best skill a pitcher can display is pitching ahead in the count and he does that regularly. There are all kinds of signs that a large part of this is for real. It probably isn't all for real but enough probably is to make him a valuable player.

 

Even if he is a #3 starter... would you rather have this home-grown option (who can be extended relatively cheaply), or do you pay a Jeff Suppan/Randy Wolf/Kyle Lohse/Matt Garza $10-15 million a year?

 

That said, he is also valuable because he is a very different type of pitcher than Jimmy Nelson. Nelson's stuff makes Suter a very different look, and vice versa. That gives each of them an edge - batters go in one night getting a guy throwing 95+, then they have a tough time adjusting to Suter. Then the next day, another guy throwing faster. A variety of "types" in the rotation isn't a bad thing.

 

I think Suter allows for the use of one of Garza, Anderson, or Davies as a trade chip in the off-season. But Suter's not alone - there's Jungmann, Woodruff, Hader, and Wang all at CO Springs this year, all showing signs they can be contributors. Then there's the next tier of Burnes, Ortiz, Angel Ventura - not to mention Perrin, Freddy Peralta, and Ponce.

 

The only thing about that depth that stinks is figuring out who will be dealt because there's no room.

[clancyphile]

It is easy to just dismiss him because of the velocity but it is also poor analysis. He induces a ton of pop outs which are as good as Ks. He has pretty elite control with only a 5.8% walk which is in line with his minor stats. He throws a lot of first pitch strikes which is an awesome skill to have, induces a lot of ground balls which is great. The single best skill a pitcher can display is pitching ahead in the count and he does that regularly. There are all kinds of signs that a large part of this is for real. It probably isn't all for real but enough probably is to make him a valuable player.

 

And the control goes well beyond walk rate. He's been living on all 4 edges. Up down in out, with pitch movement and his tempo. Add that to lefty and he's a very odd duck. When judge just stays in the box... when batters are actively thinking about stepping out to slow him down. He bothers them. It's all very different.

 

That being said... his pitches were not as pristinely located vs STL. He was a bit fat more than he had been in the first starts. Jeffress did him no favors as well. Despite that 5... 2.5 era since stepping in for Woodruff. That's hard to ignore.

 

Woodruff Garza Suter will likely decide this by the time Anderson gets back... but if Woodruff builds off this start... and looks like inning 3-6.1 more than 1-2... it's going to be a hard choice.

 

With Suter it comes down to one thing in my opinion. Can he hit edges like he did prior to STL or is STL the actual norm. I also wonder if he's using batter analytics and targeting their bad average regions for his out pitches. Wouldn't surprise me if Havard wanted all the analytics on his side he could possibly use. Haven't noticed this... or it hasn't jumped out at me. Just crossed my mind.

 

I think the Harvard thing plays into it. Suter, I think can make adjustments. As hitters try to adjust to him, he adjusts to them. He learns how to fool them, and what doesn't work.

 

If Woodruff and Suter pitch real well, deal Garza. That $5 million option will bring back prospects. Heck, maybe get a lot of international bonus money for the next few years.

[CheezWizHed]

1.Nelson

2.Anderson

3.Davies

4.Garza

5.Suter/Woodruff

 

I've been impressed by Suter over his last couple starts but he did this last year before getting hit harder.

 

If it comes down to Suter vs Woodruff, I take Woodruff and move Suter to the pen

[TJseven7]

Clancy: I see garza dealt in the offseason. That 5 mil option is a great value. I have only talked about the suter rotation spot in regards to this year. Nelson Anderson Davies Woodruff Suter is the way i want to enter next year... guerra long. Then rotation talk is over minus injury replacement or ineffectivity replacements until 2019.

 

The hang up now is that you cant take Garza out now and taking out woodruff or suter is not what I'd want to do.

[Humans Need Water]

Suter I think could be really effective as a pen arm (multi-inning/spot start) and thought that after his pen experience last year. While he's been really good overall his past 6 starts I don't see him as a full time rotation arm. He moves quick and has good control of 3 pitches he'll throw at any time but I think he will get hit if stays in that role full time.

 

Nelson, Chase, Davies, Hader, Woodruff all have better stuff and higher ceilings as well and that doesn't even include Garza (although I think he's definitely traded in the off-season after his option is picked up). I could also see Chase traded in the off-season if he comes back pitching like he did pre-injury, selling high on him. So that could potentially open a spot for Suter too. But then you'll need to open spots for Ortiz/Burnes by the end of 2018 too. I think Suter is stuck in a bad situation for landing a rotation spot within this org but I'd absolutely keep him in a multi-inning/spot start role

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If Suter continues to pitch like he has been, he'll have a spot in the rotation. Counsell really seems to trust him, and it is nice having a lefty to break things up a bit. Having a bit of a rotation back-up once Anderson returns is a great situation to be in. You figure it out when it comes. A lot can happen between now and the end of August when Anderson is set to come back.