2017 Mid-Season BF.net Community Top 25 Prospect Poll - Ballot discussion thread...

[Crash2303]

clancyphile said:

3. OF Trent Clark – He has extra-base power, and arguably the best OBP skills in the system

 

 

small sample at a low level, but in 114 PA Ernesto Martinez has on OB% over 200 points higher than his meager BA- that is insane!

[BigDaddy1974]

What has happened to Lara and Orimoloye? It wasn't long ago that these young men were the hot young prospects in the Brewer system. It appears to me that neither is getting much of a mention in the rankings. Hopefully they turn it around soon.

[clancyphile]

clancyphile said:

3. OF Trent Clark – He has extra-base power, and arguably the best OBP skills in the system

 

 

small sample at a low level, but in 114 PA Ernesto Martinez has on OB% over 200 points higher than his meager BA- that is insane!

 

True. The rookie league samples can get you excited. See Ronnie Gideon, who is resurging a bit after an awful April/May. I may just put that down to adjusting to a full season.

 

Meanwhile, Trent Clark had two doubles, two walks. Maybe a 2.5TO player, but a lot to like, given the speed and OBP skills.

[Crash2303]

Orimoloye looks incredible. his highlights make you go 'wow- that is a future major leaguer!'. however, there isn't much inbetween those and looking baffled, which the latter is unfortunately most of the time. both he and Lara are young for A ball and it shows. but, Orimoloye- would definitely be a breakout candidate for me going into next year, fwiw he's #33 on my list.

 

Lara has been disappointing all season and looked bewildered at the plate for the entirety. it surprised me they didn't send him down to R+ right away when Helena's season started, was glad that they finally did, and will wonder if he hadn't gotten hurt if he'd be mashing right now and restoring his confidence and some of his prospect status. as it is now, it shows he really needs the extra time in Helena, but would be tough to imagine the brewers sending him there next year for year four. the only thing he can do is heal up, work on his swing, and come out mashing next year. time and talent is on his side. fwiw, he's dropped 19 spots to #43 on my list.

[MrTPlush]

I think Trent Clark could be a good break out candidate next year especially if he gets the bump to AA so he doesn't have to hit in such a pitcher friendly environment. He is about to be that age a lot of guys see their power show up.

 

Trent Clark has shown a lot this year with another aggressive promotion.

[Eye Black]

With Brandon Woodruff getting a shot to start in the majors it is worth noting how quickly his rise as an organizational top prospect has been. Just 16 months ago he finished #42 in the voting for the BF.net Community Top 25 Prospect Poll (Pre-Season 2016), receiving votes on just two ballots. Now he is top five on most of our lists and hopefully not far from being a regular in the MLB rotation. Hopefully there is another Brandon Woodruff out there somewhere getting ready to start his own meteoric rise up the organizational rankings.

[82brewcrew82]

With Brandon Woodruff getting a shot to start in the majors it is worth noting how quickly his rise as an organizational top prospect has been. Just 16 months ago he finished #42 in the voting for the BF.net Community Top 25 Prospect Poll (Pre-Season 2016), receiving votes on just two ballots. Now he is top five on most of our lists and hopefully not far from being a regular in the MLB rotation. Hopefully there is another Brandon Woodruff out there somewhere getting ready to start his own meteoric rise up the organizational rankings.

 

Corbin Burnes says high. I kid. I do like a bunch of the arms they drafted this past draft. Murphy, Bullock and Morales come immediately to mind.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I'm surprised so many people are down on Trent Clark. He's 20 at High A ball and has a 755 OPS, 29-34 in SB. That's pretty good for the league especially for his age. He's 2 years younger than Cory Ray and is performing better.

[Outlander]

Something to consider for the next poll is going back to the MLB rules for eligibility because it results in too many relievers remaining eligible. It sure looks like Hader will be under 50 at year end and seems silly to keep him eligible when he is such an important piece to the MLB team. I know the rules were kind of changed because of Wang but he isn't getting many votes anymore and hopefully we don't have to worry about rule 5 picks in the near future.

[MrTPlush]

I wish it was more like 50 innings in general, but if you have less than 50 if 25 are in relief you are graduated.

 

Not sure how complicated one really wants to get when a lot of people making lists aren't that divulged into everything as it is. Would need a giant disclaimer at the top of who isn't eligible.

[reillymcshane]

Something to consider for the next poll is going back to the MLB rules for eligibility because it results in too many relievers remaining eligible. It sure looks like Hader will be under 50 at year end and seems silly to keep him eligible when he is such an important piece to the MLB team. I know the rules were kind of changed because of Wang but he isn't getting many votes anymore and hopefully we don't have to worry about rule 5 picks in the near future.

A couple of things about relievers ... they generally don't rate high in grand scheme of prospects, so they are not usually that big of a deal with regard to be eligible or not (again, that's usually).

 

Second thing, with pitchers in general -- I have stated that I will 'graduate' a player from eligibility if it's pretty obvious they are going to hit 50 IP sooner or later. So if Suter had been sitting at 40 IP when we did this poll, I would have just made him ineligible for the poll. If Hader is sitting in the 40 IP region at season's end, we'll seriously consider just graduating him - especially if he's pretty much a lock to make the roster coming out of spring training.

 

We had this issue with Jungmann and Cravy a few years ago. They were close to 50 IP, and I left them eligible. Because they were close to 50 IP, some people just didn't vote for them. (funny thing was that while Jungmann graduated, Cravy never did until the following year - so everyone assuming someone was going to play a lot was false). After that situation, I said I'd graduate guys if they were close.

 

Same thing goes with hitters. If Lewis Brinson was at 120 ABs, I wouldn't hesitate to make him ineligible.

 

I agree that the relievers are the oddest things. A guy could spend the entire season on the roster and not reach 50 IP. But I think that with any player we just have to play it by ear.

[StearnsFTW]

I think Trent Clark could be a good break out candidate next year especially if he gets the bump to AA so he doesn't have to hit in such a pitcher friendly environment. He is about to be that age a lot of guys see their power show up.

 

Trent Clark has shown a lot this year with another aggressive promotion.

 

I'd bet heavily on this. I'd also bet heavily that he will be a consensus top 3 Brewer prospect at this time next year.

[MrTPlush]

From last season compared to this season, anyone else?

 

Most Impressive: Corbin Burnes/Monte Harrison

Most Dissapointing: Mauricio Dubon

Most Intriguing: Trent Clark

 

Regarding Dubon: I was really expecting him to have a great year. He was returning to AA and then would be off to Colorado Springs. Sounded like a recipe for a big season, but instead he has had a pretty boring year. Looks like that AA time last year was a big ole fluke. I still think with the speed he could be a top of the order 2B starter if all goes right. I was hoping he would crack my Top 5, but now he is sitting at #15.

[clancyphile]

With Brandon Woodruff getting a shot to start in the majors it is worth noting how quickly his rise as an organizational top prospect has been. Just 16 months ago he finished #42 in the voting for the BF.net Community Top 25 Prospect Poll (Pre-Season 2016), receiving votes on just two ballots. Now he is top five on most of our lists and hopefully not far from being a regular in the MLB rotation. Hopefully there is another Brandon Woodruff out there somewhere getting ready to start his own meteoric rise up the organizational rankings.

 

Corbin Burnes says high. I kid. I do like a bunch of the arms they drafted this past draft. Murphy, Bullock and Morales come immediately to mind.

 

Burnes, Woodruff and Suter are the kind of draft hits that Milwaukee needs. The Brewers can't afford to spend $12-15 million a year to add a Kyle Lohse, Randy Wolf, Jeff Suppan, or the 2015-2016 versions of Matt Garza.

 

Maybe these guys don't become TOR guys, but they can fill out the rotation cheap. And Burnes/Suter/Woodruff have all flashed streaks of dominance.

 

I like Frances and Rose this draft to join Burnes/Woodruff/Suter as "surprise" prospects as starting pitchers.

[clancyphile]

I think Trent Clark could be a good break out candidate next year especially if he gets the bump to AA so he doesn't have to hit in such a pitcher friendly environment. He is about to be that age a lot of guys see their power show up.

 

Trent Clark has shown a lot this year with another aggressive promotion.

 

I'd bet heavily on this. I'd also bet heavily that he will be a consensus top 3 Brewer prospect at this time next year.

 

Troy Stokes as well. I don't think his production can be ignored much longer. He had the OBP skills and speed, now he's adding legit power. I mean LEGIT - 15 HR this year after not hitting more than 5 in a previous pro season.

 

He's doing this at 21 in the Carolina and Southern Leagues. Mostly he's been in left field, but he's had some experience here and there in center...

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Toby going for extra credit and posted his top 100 prospects! How were you able to keep it to just 100?

 

I'll be honest, I made a list of 50 then expanded it to 75 and had are hard time keeping it to that. This is a deep system.

 

Out of curiosity, why did you put Isan at #3? Ortiz at 12?

 

I also find it interesting to see many people putting Trent Clark ahead of Cory Ray, which goes against most of the national prospect polls. Ray has tremendous talent but Trent is just outplaying him at the same level and 2 years younger. I may have to rethink my list.

[And That]

Well, I have a list out to 200, but that seemed like overkill to post it all. LG Castillo was #101. Julian Jarrard was #200.

 

Regarding Isan Diaz and my list in general, my list is composed by taking OFP grades from a variety of sources (public and otherwise), averaging them out, and then adjusting them for current year and 3-year performance, age relative to league, and a risk factor. Isan Diaz happened to come out at 3 from that cold workbook calculation - I didn't consciously try to put him any place in particular.

 

So as for defending his position at #3, what put him high on most prospect lists coming into the season is still there - he still has elite hand speed and exudes a professional approach at the plate. It's easy to point at his .227 batting average and start wringing hands, but he has hit into his fair share of bad luck in an already depressed offensive environment. And despite hitting .227, he still has a 105 wRC+, meaning he has literally been more productive than the league average. His BB% has also crept up this year, from an-already good 12.3% to an even better 13.8%. K% is up as well, but not as much, so his BB/K has improved.

 

If I were just back of the enveloping a top 10 list, I don't think I'd have Diaz at 3, but that's what the cold logic of my workbook spits out, so there it is. I'd also probably have Ortiz higher.

 

Ortiz slips a bit due to having a relatively mediocre season up to his past few starts, as well as continuing DL appearances, lack of dominant stuff the times I've seen him pitch, conditioning, and his relative distance away from MLB due to his lack of minor league innings. My opinion on him really hasn't slipped that much since the trade a year ago, it's just that he's kind of gone sideways while others have not. I have no doubt he'll be back in my top 10 again soon.

[LouisEly]

My hope is that Harrison, Clark, and Ray get split up next year, simply because all three can't play CF on the same team at the same time.

 

It's a good problem to have, but I think the problem that it creates is that having them on the same team means they can't showcase their defensive skills in CF when scouts for other teams come to watch them. I think the Brewers sold Cordell low because he was relegated to corner OF due to having Brinson and Phillips on the same team.

 

People said Cordell wasn't anything special, but I think it was because many people were looking at him through the lens of a corner OF. He was a CF prior to being acquired by MIL; he's played more games/innings at CF than any other position. I think we see this with Clark; I forget that he's been a CF until this year, and like others I have been prone to judging him as a corner OF.

 

The Brewers are going to have to trade some of those guys sooner rather than later, and I think scouts will have a hard time evaluating their true value if they can't play CF because of a logjam at the position.

[Never Outhustled]

My hope is that Harrison, Clark, and Ray get split up next year, simply because all three can't play CF on the same team at the same time.

 

It's a good problem to have, but I think the problem that it creates is that having them on the same team means they can't showcase their defensive skills in CF when scouts for other teams come to watch them. I think the Brewers sold Cordell low because he was relegated to corner OF due to having Brinson and Phillips on the same team.

 

People said Cordell wasn't anything special, but I think it was because many people were looking at him through the lens of a corner OF. He was a CF prior to being acquired by MIL; he's played more games/innings at CF than any other position. I think we see this with Clark; I forget that he's been a CF until this year, and like others I have been prone to judging him as a corner OF.

 

The Brewers are going to have to trade some of those guys sooner rather than later, and I think scouts will have a hard time evaluating their true value if they can't play CF because of a logjam at the position.

 

Breaking up Clark, Harrison, and Ray will be easy because Ray will need a 3rd year at A+, while the other 2 have shown the consistent improvement to continue to move up.

 

I didn't like Cordell because he was 25 and still couldn't hit. It had nothing to do with his position.

[clancyphile]

My hope is that Harrison, Clark, and Ray get split up next year, simply because all three can't play CF on the same team at the same time.

 

It's a good problem to have, but I think the problem that it creates is that having them on the same team means they can't showcase their defensive skills in CF when scouts for other teams come to watch them. I think the Brewers sold Cordell low because he was relegated to corner OF due to having Brinson and Phillips on the same team.

 

People said Cordell wasn't anything special, but I think it was because many people were looking at him through the lens of a corner OF. He was a CF prior to being acquired by MIL; he's played more games/innings at CF than any other position. I think we see this with Clark; I forget that he's been a CF until this year, and like others I have been prone to judging him as a corner OF.

 

The Brewers are going to have to trade some of those guys sooner rather than later, and I think scouts will have a hard time evaluating their true value if they can't play CF because of a logjam at the position.

 

Cordell was special, IMO, due to the fact he played all three OF positions and SS, 3B, and 2B in 2015-2016. That sort of versatility makes him a very useful bench asset at a minimum. He's also got good power. It made him an excellent supplement/replacement for Hernan Perez.

[FVBrewerFan]

Just completed mine. This time, tried really hard to start fresh, without bias of existing lists. Ended up with Peralta #1, just because I believe of all pitchers in the system, he has the highest ceiling and high enough floor.

 

Nest four were pitchers too. I believe Burnes, Woodruff, and Ortiz all have very high floors and will stick as starting pitchers. Are they #2 types... #4? I don't know, and don't care much as those labels don't mean much and are fluid year to year. All I know is those 3 guys are true starting pitchers. Hader made it as my #5, since his role down the road is still somewhat up in the air.

 

What I noticed this time around was that it was difficult calling very many guys a Top 10 prospect. But 20-80 is loaded.

[ZBTMP]

Well, I have a list out to 200, but that seemed like overkill to post it all. LG Castillo was #101. Julian Jarrard was #200.

 

 

Surprised Roegner didn’t place somewhere on your top 100. He was one of the last few cuts from my top 30. Big lefty with decent stuff and keeps getting better as the season goes on. Just a case of being 24 at A ball? I give him some pass on that being a Tommy John and warm weather pitcher. I know you watch the T-Rats regularly so thought I’d ask.

[82brewcrew82]

Well, I have a list out to 200, but that seemed like overkill to post it all. LG Castillo was #101. Julian Jarrard was #200.

 

 

Surprised Roegner didn’t place somewhere on your top 100. He was one of the last few cuts from my top 30. Big lefty with decent stuff and keeps getting better as the season goes on. Just a case of being 24 at A ball? I give him some pass on that being a Tommy John and warm weather pitcher. I know you watch the T-Rats regularly so thought I’d ask.

 

I've not seen or heard anything on his stuff. I was under the impression it was pretty ordinary though that impression is admittedly unfounded. What do you have that says his stuff?

[And That]

Well, I have a list out to 200, but that seemed like overkill to post it all. LG Castillo was #101. Julian Jarrard was #200.

 

 

Surprised Roegner didn’t place somewhere on your top 100. He was one of the last few cuts from my top 30. Big lefty with decent stuff and keeps getting better as the season goes on. Just a case of being 24 at A ball? I give him some pass on that being a Tommy John and warm weather pitcher. I know you watch the T-Rats regularly so thought I’d ask.

Back of the envelope, he's probably a top 100 guy for me (though in the lower half to third), but yes, being 24 in A ball doesn't help. I have mostly 35 OFP grades on him, and his injury history bumps his risk factor a little. From what I've seen, he gets pretty good plane on his fastball due to his size, but seems to miss the plate glove side with some regularity. His changeup is the better of his two offspeed pitches, but offhand I don't recall being wowed by either. With the angles he's able to create, he should be getting more ground balls than he is. He has a GB+ of 91 for the Midwest League - I would think it should be closer to 110 or so. That might suggest he's missing up in the zone as well, though I haven't noticed that. The lack of ground balls also could be a result of the Brewers having him work on things that might change how he pitches normally.

 

With the changeup being his primary offspeed pitch, the odds drop a bit of Roegner being developed as a LOOGY, so he's going to have to continue showing he can get batters on both sides of the plate out.

[Greenleaf1]

After seeing his start at AA, if Troy Stokes Jr. can continue success until the end of the season, I think I'm going to have to find a spot for him on my post-season list. His AVG isn't terrific but his career OBP is .361 (slightly under that this year at .350 but still phenomenal and .408 so far at AA), his SLG/OPS are career highs, and he's maintained his stolen bases while hitting 16 HR already this year (previous career high was 5 and that was in the launching pad of Helena). His walk rate and strikeout rate are very encouraging as well.

 

He was WAY overshadowed by his teammates at Carolina, but was still promoted ahead of all of them (could argue that Stearns is more concerned with the development of the other guys and didn't want to promote them too early even if they had a need at AA, so send Stokes up instead, but Stokes had more than earned that promotion with good numbers in pitcher friendly Carolina).

 

Only 11 games so far with Biloxi so will have to see how he finishes the season, but if his power gains are legitimate he could be looking at a September call up in 2018, having risen through the system at a solid clip (he won't turn 22 until February).

 

Anybody got the scouting report on Stokes? Am I reading too much into the stat line? He was a 4th round pick so he must've shown some decent promise in high school before being drafted.

 

He's only played LF this year as far as I can tell, but was described as a speedy CF after being drafted and the stolen base numbers are still there so I'm guessing he could play center field. Seems like it'd be hard to keep him off the top 30 going into 2018.