2017 Mid-Season BF.net Community Top 25 Prospect Poll - Ballot discussion thread...

[clancyphile]

Per And That's request in the ballot thread, I'll open this topic for discussion of the ballots.

 

The numbers this season have forced me to reconsider things from the pre-season.

 

Trent Clark, Troy Stokes Jr., and Isan Diaz got the three top offensive slots in my ballot. All are similar in that their batting averages are low, but all have drawn a lot of walks, they have speed, and they are flashing power.

 

Some of my highest risers: Jake Gatewood and Monte Harrison both jumped up 20 spots from their spots on my last ballot. Their production's there, and hopefully, they have put it all together. Clark had a 14-point jump, Stokes a 12-spot jump, Gabriel Garcia jumped up 15 spots, while Corbin Burnes, Nate Griep, and Payton Henry didn't register on my screen in the preseason ballot.

 

My top ten saw Erceg drop 8 spots, and Diaz drop 2 (albeit more due to the emergence of Clark and Stokes).

 

Big drops for Ronnie Gideon, Marcos Diplan, Clint Coulter, and Mitch Ghelfi.

[Greenleaf1]

No offense clancyphile, because I did enjoy reading your list, but I wouldn't even know how to begin discussing your list with you.

[clancyphile]

This is for anyone to discuss their list.

[FVBrewerFan]

Pretty much what I expected, but interesting that guys like Phillips, Ray, Erceg, etc. are all over the place. Really hard to know how Top 10 will end up this time.

[LouisEly]

I tend to give more weight to production at AA/AAA than potential in rookie ball. Generally I cut off at 27, but because Nick Ramirez just switched to pitching (and is doing so well) I'll make an exception for him. And because it's his birthday today. He isn't new to pitching - he was the closer at Cal State Fullerton, a pretty predominant college program. But that is why you don't see Wilkerson on my list; if he were 26 he'd definitely be top 20, maybe top 15.

 

Other teams have better talent 1-10, but I'd put the Brewers 11-30 up against any team.

[MrTPlush]

Jake Gatewood, #23 on pre season list, is floating in the same spot or possibly even worse(lots leaving him off) so far. Kind of blows my mind actually. Maybe it just so happens a lot of the people who don't like Gatewood have posted lists, but wow. His game has seen incredible strides vs. last year. I was expecting him to bump up into the #19 all said and done.

 

Still early so interested to see where that goes.

[clancyphile]

Jake Gatewood, #23 on pre season list, is floating in the same spot or possibly even worse(lots leaving him off) so far. Kind of blows my mind actually. Maybe it just so happens a lot of the people who don't like Gatewood have posted lists, but wow. His game has seen incredible strides vs. last year. I was expecting him to bump up into the #19 all said and done.

 

Still early so interested to see where that goes.

 

I shot Gatewood up to #6 as his average and OBP seemed to be improving. I think that dealing with the vision issue probably helped in that regard. I do wonder if it's not time to try him at shortstop or third some more. Granted Erceg is at third, but his defensive numbers didn't seem to be awful at either position.

 

I say this as someone who was looking at the earlier offensive struggles, and dismissed him. Not doing so now.

[nate82]

Jake Gatewood, #23 on pre season list, is floating in the same spot or possibly even worse(lots leaving him off) so far. Kind of blows my mind actually. Maybe it just so happens a lot of the people who don't like Gatewood have posted lists, but wow. His game has seen incredible strides vs. last year. I was expecting him to bump up into the #19 all said and done.

 

Still early so interested to see where that goes.

 

I agree Gatewood has put up some solid numbers at A+ this year. He has raised his OBP by almost 100 points over last year and a near 800 OPS in Carolina is actually rather good and has put up numbers similar to what Braun did in A+. Braun was 22 when he slashed .274/.346/.438 at Brevard in 2006 at 22 while Gatewood so far this year has put up this slash line of .268/.341/.443 I would say that is pretty good for a 21 year old in A+. I am not saying Gatewood is going to be the next Ryan Braun but he is having one of the better seasons so far in the minors.

 

Once Gatewood gets out of Carolina I think you will see his power increase some more. Next year in AA is going to be his biggest test. I think Gatewood is probably going to go to the Fall League and I wouldn't be surprised if he is the talk of the fall league.

[nate82]

Jake Gatewood, #23 on pre season list, is floating in the same spot or possibly even worse(lots leaving him off) so far. Kind of blows my mind actually. Maybe it just so happens a lot of the people who don't like Gatewood have posted lists, but wow. His game has seen incredible strides vs. last year. I was expecting him to bump up into the #19 all said and done.

 

Still early so interested to see where that goes.

 

I shot Gatewood up to #6 as his average and OBP seemed to be improving. I think that dealing with the vision issue probably helped in that regard. I do wonder if it's not time to try him at shortstop or third some more. Granted Erceg is at third, but his defensive numbers didn't seem to be awful at either position.

 

I say this as someone who was looking at the earlier offensive struggles, and dismissed him. Not doing so now.

 

Just stop please stop this gets old. Just because a player played a position in HS or college does not mean they should play that position in the majors or the minors. Braun never should have been put at 3B he should have been put in the OF to start his career.

 

Gatewood is not a SS and nor is he a 3B there is a reason why he is at 1B. He is just not good at SS or 3B he is about as bad as Braun was defensively at 3B and even worse at SS. He has no range at SS if you like Yuniesky Betancourt types then sure he can be a SS but otherwise no he is a horrible SS.

[clancyphile]

Jake Gatewood, #23 on pre season list, is floating in the same spot or possibly even worse(lots leaving him off) so far. Kind of blows my mind actually. Maybe it just so happens a lot of the people who don't like Gatewood have posted lists, but wow. His game has seen incredible strides vs. last year. I was expecting him to bump up into the #19 all said and done.

 

Still early so interested to see where that goes.

 

I shot Gatewood up to #6 as his average and OBP seemed to be improving. I think that dealing with the vision issue probably helped in that regard. I do wonder if it's not time to try him at shortstop or third some more. Granted Erceg is at third, but his defensive numbers didn't seem to be awful at either position.

 

I say this as someone who was looking at the earlier offensive struggles, and dismissed him. Not doing so now.

 

Just stop please stop this gets old. Just because a player played a position in HS or college does not mean they should play that position in the majors or the minors. Braun never should have been put at 3B he should have been put in the OF to start his career.

 

Gatewood is not a SS and nor is he a 3B there is a reason why he is at 1B. He is just not good at SS or 3B he is about as bad as Braun was defensively at 3B and even worse at SS. He has no range at SS if you like Yuniesky Betancourt types then sure he can be a SS but otherwise no he is a horrible SS.

 

Gatewood has posted a .944 fielding percentage at shortstop, playing 147 games there.

 

Arcia's fielding percentage at all levels in .968. His 2017 OPS is .713, per baseball-reference.

 

So, we're talking 24 points on the fielding percentage, and Arcia's bat is... well... Gantner-esque. Web gems are nice, but if Gatewood has put his offense together, if he is the dynamic bat, and he can play shortstop well (and a .944 fielding percentage there is NOT bad), then why not move Gatewood back to short? If nothing else, he can be moved back to first (or to second) or the outfield. But if Gatewood is a stud bat, the 30-homer a year player that he was projected to be when he was drafted three years ago, and an average fielder... then what is there to lose by putting him at short, at least in the minors?

 

If Arcia can get his OPS close to .800, Gatewood can play second, third, first, left, right, wherever. If Arcia can't, then you have the option to deal Arcia and plug in a plus bat there.

[OnaBadger58]

I was expecting to see more love for Yamamoto. He has a pretty advanced curve and good command of his fastball to go along with really good numbers. He missed a lot of lists.

[MrTPlush]

Clancy how long have you been apart of this forum yet don't understand a fielding rating system outside of fielding %? Does range not exist in your defensive handbook? If they guy can't play 3B there is no way on this earth they are playing SS. Have you seen Gatewood play in person? No friggen way he plays SS.

 

Regarding Yamamoto he is an OK guy to me. Nothing really stands out. System is too deep in my opinion for him to crack my Top 30. Dream scenario seems like a back end starter.

[Greenleaf1]

Checked where I had Gatewood, I put him at #19, which is more a credit to how stacked I think our system is than anything else. Gatewood has shown major improvements this year and is at least maintaining decent numbers while better prospects around him struggle even more. His bat was a lot hotter in April/May though, so I didn't feel the need to put him too much higher.

 

Yamamoto I put at #30 (off the list for this exercise officially), but looking at his numbers and age I'm excited to see what he can do moving up the system, particularly next year in Biloxi.

 

I did tend to prioritize near-Major prospects, which is why my top 5 is Brinson and the big 4 pitching prospects, but I anticipate that by the end of 2018 Hiura will be my #1, assuming he shows average defense somewhere.

 

Just looking through my own #15-20 and it's crazy how much talent there is that far down the list: Supak, Monte, Bickford, Ponce, Gatewood, Medeiros. That's some real talent.

[82brewcrew82]

Clancy how long have you been apart of this forum yet don't understand a fielding rating system outside of fielding %? Does range not exist in your defensive handbook? If they guy can't play 3B there is no way on this earth they are playing SS. Have you seen Gatewood play in person? No friggen way he plays SS.

 

Regarding Yamamoto he is an OK guy to me. Nothing really stands out. System is too deep in my opinion for him to crack my Top 30. Dream scenario seems like a back end starter.

 

I don't mind the goofy top 25 lists so much. At the end of the day it's just an opinion much like it is for the larger publications. What I do mind are these kind of statements. Coulter should move back to catcher, Gatewood should move to third, Cordell should play short, Suter should be a closer. This isn't a video game or fantasy baseball where you can just stick a guy where ever and let it go.

[clancyphile]

Clancy how long have you been apart of this forum yet don't understand a fielding rating system outside of fielding %? Does range not exist in your defensive handbook? If they guy can't play 3B there is no way on this earth they are playing SS. Have you seen Gatewood play in person? No friggen way he plays SS.

 

Regarding Yamamoto he is an OK guy to me. Nothing really stands out. System is too deep in my opinion for him to crack my Top 30. Dream scenario seems like a back end starter.

 

I can understand this:

The Brewers got a combined total of five runs against the Cubs over the weekend. Only the fact Brent Suter tossed a gem kept it from being a sweep for the Cubs. That will not cut it if we have to face `em for the division title down the road. It didn't cut it in a series the Brewers had to sweep and instead lost one full game of ground.

 

If Gatewood can play a passable shortstop and hit 25-30 homers while Arcia can't get an OPS above .725, I'm inclined to go for him, and deal Arcia so some other team can violate Al's dictum of not paying a good-field, no-hit shortstop and give us prospects or some missing piece for a pennant run for that "privilege."

 

If Arcia's bat comes around, then I'm happy to deal with the "problem" of figuring out where to play Jake Gatewood. But if it doesn't, I want an in-house offensive upgrade available.

[82brewcrew82]

Clancy how long have you been apart of this forum yet don't understand a fielding rating system outside of fielding %? Does range not exist in your defensive handbook? If they guy can't play 3B there is no way on this earth they are playing SS. Have you seen Gatewood play in person? No friggen way he plays SS.

 

Regarding Yamamoto he is an OK guy to me. Nothing really stands out. System is too deep in my opinion for him to crack my Top 30. Dream scenario seems like a back end starter.

 

I can understand this:

The Brewers got a combined total of five runs against the Cubs over the weekend. Only the fact Brent Suter tossed a gem kept it from being a sweep for the Cubs. That will not cut it if we have to face `em for the division title down the road. It didn't cut it in a series the Brewers had to sweep and instead lost one full game of ground.

 

If Gatewood can play a passable shortstop and hit 25-30 homers while Arcia can't get an OPS above .725, I'm inclined to go for him, and deal Arcia so some other team can violate Al's dictum of not paying a good-field, no-hit shortstop and give us prospects or some missing piece for a pennant run for that "privilege."

 

If Arcia's bat comes around, then I'm happy to deal with the "problem" of figuring out where to play Jake Gatewood. But if it doesn't, I want an in-house offensive upgrade available.

 

You understand run prevention, correct? Not only that but you are assigning some pretty lofty numbers to Gatewood. I'm not sure at all that he has proven he can do that but at the same time you question whether Arcia can push his OPS up .20. Gems typically don't get pitched without solid defense behind them.

[nate82]

 

Gatewood has posted a .944 fielding percentage at shortstop, playing 147 games there.

 

Arcia's fielding percentage at all levels in .968. His 2017 OPS is .713, per baseball-reference.

 

So, we're talking 24 points on the fielding percentage, and Arcia's bat is... well... Gantner-esque. Web gems are nice, but if Gatewood has put his offense together, if he is the dynamic bat, and he can play shortstop well (and a .944 fielding percentage there is NOT bad), then why not move Gatewood back to short? If nothing else, he can be moved back to first (or to second) or the outfield. But if Gatewood is a stud bat, the 30-homer a year player that he was projected to be when he was drafted three years ago, and an average fielder... then what is there to lose by putting him at short, at least in the minors?

 

If Arcia can get his OPS close to .800, Gatewood can play second, third, first, left, right, wherever. If Arcia can't, then you have the option to deal Arcia and plug in a plus bat there.

 

Gatewood is nowhere near an average SS at best he is just a tick better than Yuniesky Betancourt defensively at SS. There is a huge difference between Arcia and Gatewood just because Gatewood has a better fielding percentage which is a useless stat to even look at does not make him a viable option at SS.

 

Here is why fielding percentage is useless if Arcia gets 1000 chances to field a play at SS and converts 900 of those chances while Gatewood only gets to 500 of those same chances and converts 450 of those chances which player is better? Obviously Arcia is the better SS he just converted twice as many outs as Gatewood did but Gatewood's fielding percentage would be better. It is just useless to look at fielding percentage because it doesn't tell you anything about the player. The majority of the scouting reports I have read on Gatewood state at best he could become an average short stop so that is his ceiling. With defense being a premium at SS having an at best average SS is not a good idea even if the alternate is a lower hitting player.

 

Gatewood is where he should be right now at 1B. Defensively that is the best spot for him going forward he could have been a great 3B but he just never stuck there. Defensively he looked awkward playing 3B and he could just never settle in playing there. It obviously bothered him last year and his offense suffered because of it. Keeping Gatewood at 1B is the correct option going forward with him.

[82brewcrew82]

When it's all said and done, Gatewood or Harrison, who took the bigger step forward. Both have been impressive but I might have to go with Harrison. If he finishes strong I would have to rank him behind only Brinson and Hiura.

[MrTPlush]

When it's all said and done, Gatewood or Harrison, who took the bigger step forward. Both have been impressive but I might have to go with Harrison. If he finishes strong I would have to rank him behind only Brinson and Hiura.

 

Monte Harrison

 

Defense has made strides and the power is showing up in game. If he can't find better consistency I am going to get pretty excited. He has one of the more exciting ceilings in the system, but also still a high risk guy.

 

While Jake Gatewood has made quite a few strides in his game the power tapered off after the first two months and he is a 1B only guy.

[LouisEly]

Gatewood has played 11 games and 95 innings at 3B this season, and started there as recently as July 29th. They haven't completely given up on him as a 3B. SS, no, but the door isn't shut at 3B. If Erceg wasn't on the same team, I'd wonder how much more he would have played at 3B. The vision correction might help the fielding too.

 

As I mentioned in the other thread, Gatewood has really tapered off since the hot start. Sub-.700 OPS in June and July, and now under .800 for the season. Thus Gatewood is barely cracking my top-25.

 

Yamamoto is very interesting, as is Zack Brown. Both were just outside my top 25. But that is more of a function of there being very, very little difference between #20 and #35 or so on my list and my preference for giving more weight to production above A-ball. You'll see Hauser, Derby, Nick Ramirez, and Wang above them (for now) because they've had success at AA/AAA.

 

Medeiros is almost the anti-Gatewood, as he has been getting better lately. Really has made strides the last month or so. I'm more positive on Medeiros than Gatewood.

 

There's always a lot of "shiny new object" syndrome going on in these threads - excitement over rookie ball players who haven't had the opportunity to fail yet. Human nature.

[82brewcrew82]

I think that is probably more a product of an organizational philosophy than it is their belief in his ability to play third. You may be right but I have a hard time, off the top of my head, thinking of a player the really plays one position exclusively.

[MrTPlush]

Another guy not getting a ton of love that I still really believe in: Kodi Medeiros. His ERA doesn't impress you, but some of the secondary stuff is good.

 

Opponent BA: .222

WHIP: 1.22

K/9: 8.88

 

This is out of a left handed pitcher, who while still walking too many, is walking at the lowest rate in his young career. At just 21 years old I think he still has a lot of potential. Not to mention he has been great of late. He is going to put it together one of these days.

[And That]

Medeiros was actually even hitting a few of his spots with his slider during his last start. He threw a nice back foot slider to get a RHB swinging, which I don't recall seeing before from him. His slider has wandered a bit further into slurve territory, but he seems to control it better when it breaks a little earlier. He also got a few strikes with his change-up. Slider command and ability to throw a competent change will be the keys to keeping him in the rotation going forward.

 

He's certainly made progress this year after backing up big time in 2016, similar to what Nottingham is doing in Biloxi behind the plate.

[Jesús Saves]

New here, but here's my list with thoughts of important

 

1) Lewis Brinson

2) Josh Hader

 

Easy top two guys

 

3) Keston Hiura

 

If he sticks at 2B then he's a weapon in the lineup

 

4) Luis Ortiz

5) Brandon Woodruff

6) Corbin Burnes

7) Freddy Peralta

 

Really like all 4 of these guys. Each has there reasons for optimism and should be knocking on the door in the next 2 years. Hope we can find out what we have here. Peralta needs to tone down the walks but with his pure stuff he should be at least a high leverage BP guy. Really really like him

 

8) Brett Phillips

9) Isan Diaz

 

Phillips needs MLB at bats to know if he's a 4th OF or a legit starter. It really did seem like they were showcasing him before the deadline but if we go into next year with Braun/Brinson/Santana with Phillips as the 4th OF then I'd be pretty happy. Phillips would get plenty of ABs between off days for those guys.

 

Really like Diaz and him falling is more a function of liking guys in front of him. Still think he's got everyday 2B potential. Beautiful swing.

 

10) Tristen Lutz

 

Huge power ceiling with plus defense. He's so high because it's clear the organization absolutely loves him. That counts for something.

 

11) Mauricio Dubon

 

Hopefully can be solid at second

 

12) Monte Harrison

13) Trent Clark

 

LOVE Harrison. Ridiculous power output this year with every tool you could possibly want. True 5 tools if he puts it together. Plus this Wisconsin football fan is happy he was signed away from Nebraska.

 

14) Jake Gatewood

15) Lucas Erceg

 

Gatewood has taken big steps with big tools. Let's see to finishing the year strong. Erceg has a great arm at 3rd and a solid swing but ... cmon man take some walks!

 

16) Troy Stokes Jr

17) Corey Ray

 

Stokes is younger than Ray and producing while a level above him. Ray could fly up this list because of the tools, but call me a skeptic.

 

18) Phil Bickford

19) KJ Harrison

20) Trey Supak

21) Marcos Diplan

22) Carlos Herrera

23) Mario Feliciano

24) Cody Ponce

25) Zack Clark

 

Collection of high upside but young guys for the most part. Should have added Nottingham but hopefully between him, Feliciano, and Harrison one will hit their upside.

[82brewcrew82]

Medeiros was actually even hitting a few of his spots with his slider during his last start. He threw a nice back foot slider to get a RHB swinging, which I don't recall seeing before from him. His slider has wandered a bit further into slurve territory, but he seems to control it better when it breaks a little earlier. He also got a few strikes with his change-up. Slider command and ability to throw a competent change will be the keys to keeping him in the rotation going forward.

 

He's certainly made progress this year after backing up big time in 2016, similar to what Nottingham is doing in Biloxi behind the plate.

 

This really is the tease of the Milwaukee system. So many guys with such great talent that at any point one, two, three or who knows how many could breakout at any time and really launch this franchise..........or none of them do and the naysayers get their "I told you so" say in the sun.

 

The system doesn't lack talent. It lacks skill.