Yankees get Sonny Gray

[MKEguy]

Good non-trade. Gray wouldn't have gotten us to the level of the top few in the NL.

[Lathund]

If the two injured guys manage to come back from their injuries without any lasting issues, I think this is a good return for the A's. But that's obviously not a given, so a high risk move. At the same time, the Yankees trade away some uncertainty for a solid return.

 

But it's also yet another trade that clearly shows the market is not the same as last year. The Chapman and Miller deals were the anomalies, not the new norm. Or perhaps Cashman is just really, really good at his job.

[82brewcrew82]

I would not have and It has been reported a few times that the A's wanted Brinson so any comparison deal starts with Brinson.

 

It was also reported they wanted Frazier or Flores and then it was reported they wanted Florial. Thy didn't walk away with any of them.

 

 

Correct but I don't think our secondary options are the equal of what the Yankees gave up.

[Boomer5]

Hard to judge without knowing all the information. If A's preferred upside no way we match this offer without Brinson. If they hated our prospects also no way to get it done without Brinson. Also possible Stearns is too attached to our good, but not elite prospects. However I guess it is one of the first two options.

 

Disappointed we couldn't beat that offer.

 

It's starting to look like our minor league system is really just Hader and Brinson, with Hiura on the way.

[Mudville9]

Both Fowler and Kaprielian are coming off major injuries and Mateo's prospect stock is way down.

 

Brewers could have and should have beaten this package with relative ease.

 

Terrible.

 

Makes me physically ill. The Rich Get Richer.

 

I thought I read somewhere last night that the A's wanted Brinson or no deal. Didn't sound like they would settle or much else. If that is the case, DS made the correct decision. Now we just need the Cubs and Yankees to eliminated from the playoffs in dramatic fashion and for the Dodgers to come up short so they trade for Braun in the offseason.

[82brewcrew82]

Hard to judge without knowing all the information. If A's preferred upside no way we match this offer without Brinson. If they hated our prospects also no way to get it done without Brinson. Also possible Stearns is too attached to our good, but not elite prospects. However I guess it is one of the first two options.

 

Disappointed we couldn't beat that offer.

 

It's starting to look like our minor league system is really just Hader and Brinson, with Hiura on the way.

 

 

What do you mean starting? You've been beating that drum for over a month now.

[DocLuna7]

Is it confirmed that Yanks also got oakland's international bonus slot?

[Ennder]

Davies has a 2.67 ERA and .286 wOBA since the all star break. I'd say that counts as lights out.

 

Only 2 pitchers that are 5'10" have pitched a complete season in their age 28 or 29 year in the past 30 years. One of them moved to the bullpen at age 30 because of arm problems. The other was finished at age 31. Gray was awful last season and hurt part of this year already and has had 3 different arm injuries over the past 2 seasons. This is not a good target for us. This is a rental for this year that you hope doesn't just break next year.

[82brewcrew82]

I'm thinking Brinson, Ortiz, Dubon would have gotten it done.

[82brewcrew82]

Both Fowler and Kaprielian are coming off major injuries and Mateo's prospect stock is way down.

 

Brewers could have and should have beaten this package with relative ease.

 

Terrible.

 

Makes me physically ill. The Rich Get Richer.

 

I thought I read somewhere last night that the A's wanted Brinson or no deal. Didn't sound like they would settle or much else. If that is the case, DS made the correct decision. Now we just need the Cubs and Yankees to eliminated from the playoffs in dramatic fashion and for the Dodgers to come up short so they trade for Braun in the offseason.

 

Heyman said it today. A's wanted Brinson and DS said no.

[DocLuna7]

I'm thinking Brinson, Ortiz, Dubon would have gotten it done.

 

I am glad we didn't include Brinson in this deal. Anyone else though, given this return, I would have pulled the trigger.

[OnaBadger58]

I'm thinking Brinson, Ortiz, Dubon would have gotten it done.

That's it???

[KeithStone53151]

I'm thinking Brinson, Ortiz, Dubon would have gotten it done.

 

I am glad we didn't include Brinson in this deal. Anyone else though, given this return, I would have pulled the trigger.

 

I suspect Beane valued the ceilings of these guys higher than the guys DS was willing to part with. Absolutely happy we didn't make a trade. Stick to the plan.

[82brewcrew82]

I'm thinking Brinson, Ortiz, Dubon would have gotten it done.

 

I am glad we didn't include Brinson in this deal. Anyone else though, given this return, I would have pulled the trigger.

 

 

Then the Brewers were never really in it.

[82brewcrew82]

I'm thinking Brinson, Ortiz, Dubon would have gotten it done.

 

I am glad we didn't include Brinson in this deal. Anyone else though, given this return, I would have pulled the trigger.

 

I would have had a hard time with Ray, Dubon, Ortiz. No way I give that up for a pitcher that has a lot of things going against him.

[TJseven7]

Both Fowler and Kaprielian are coming off major injuries and Mateo's prospect stock is way down.

 

Brewers could and should have beaten this package with relative ease.

 

Terrible.

 

Why? Starting pitching is absolutely the very least of the Brewers problems right now. Garza and Anderson are both nearly back, Suter has pitched very well, Nelson has been close to an ace, and Davies has been lights out for nearly two months. Giving up this kind of package for a position that there's absolutely no need makes zero sense whatsoever.

 

Zach Davies lights out???

 

There are no words...

 

3.75 since april 25

Sub 3 july?

 

Wouldnt call him lights out but deserves a rotation spot

 

Blue... that's gray

[StearnsFTW]

I'm thinking Brinson, Ortiz, Dubon would have gotten it done.

 

My God would that have been disastrous.

[Humans Need Water]

Davies has a 3.7 ERA his last 18 starts and 16 of those netted a 2.96 ERA. 10 of those starts he gave up 2ER or fewer and 3 more starts he gave up 3ER. He's been productive.

 

As got a lot of talented dudes back. Beating that deal would have been a horrendous decision.

[LouisEly]

I get not wanting to overpay, and I get the value of prospects.

 

But barring a trade to the Dodgers or Angels, Braun will be here for at least three more years, Santana is controlled for four more years, then you have Brinson, Phillips, Broxton... where are those guys all going to play? Plus the next wave of Ray, Clark, Harrison, Stokes, etc.

 

And I really think that Ray is a depreciating asset, and will be worth less two years from now and was best moved now.

 

There is a risk to making acquisitions. There is also a risk to not making acquisitions. Not all prospects pan out, and if there isn't room on the major league club they have no value sitting on the bench.

[brewmann04]

Ray and Clark and Harrison are more than a way Off IMO.

[JosephC]

reillymcshane and I had both done an analysis of Gray's estimated surplus value in the big Sonny Gray thread and both of us estimated his surplus value was in the neighborhood of 40 million dollars.

 

Prospect surplus value for the players headed to Oakland:

-Dustin Fowler = 22.042 million (easy estimate because he's in the 76-100 range on both the MLB.com list and on the Baseball America update)

-Jorge Mateo = 10.7 million (top 10 organizational prospect, another easy estimate as he isn't in the top 100 on either list but few would argue that he's not organizational top 10 quality)

-James Kaprielian = 10.7 million (top 10 organizational prospect, I would argue that he should be downgraded because of injury but I'd guess that the broad consensus opinion would still rate him as in this group)

Total prospect surplus value = 43.442 million

 

The money just slightly favors the A's, but then with international bonus money going back to New York then I would call this trade dead even from the numbers standpoint. In fact, I am surprised by how even this trade turned out to be.

 

BUT.....(there is always one of those) Personally, if I were an A's fan I would absolutely hate this trade. Mainly because I am not big on James Kaprielian. I don't care how much upside a player has, if a pitcher is drafted in 2015 and only has a total of 56 innings at the end of the 2017 season...that's a huge question mark for me. Not to mention the last I heard is that Kaprielian is unlikely to be ready at the beginning of next season (should be ready a month or two into the season). And considering the A's did not get a top 50 type headliner in this deal, that makes the third piece in this deal a very important piece. And if the rumors were accurate, the player the A's really desired was Florial and they couldn't even pull him out of the deal...really comes off like they were resigned to trade Gray and in the end they let the big market team push them around and having everything dictated to them. Very disappointing. IMO doing a "hold" on Gray would have been an absolute no-brainer choice if this was the best deal that was offered.

[JosephC]

This is my latest estimate of the prospect surplus value for players in the Brewer's system. The list includes Hader and Suter since they are such recent graduates.

 

66.34 million - Lewis Brinson (hitter 11-25)

22.042 million - Corey Ray, Isan Diaz (hitter 76-100)

17.655 million - Josh Hader (pitcher 51-75)

17.441 million - Keston Hiura (back end of top 100 hitter/barely outside list)

17.1735 million - Luis Ortiz, Brandon Woodruff (between pitcher 51-75 and pitcher 76-100)

12.84 million - Corbin Burnes (back end of top 100 pitcher/barely outside list)

10.7 million - Brett Phillips, Trent Clark, Mauricio Dubon, Lucas Erceg, Tristen Lutz, Monte Harrison ("top 10 organizational prospect")

7.49 million - Phil Bickford, Marcos Diplan, Freddy Peralta (between "top 10 organizational prospect" and "role player prospect")

5.35 million - Jacob Nottingham, Cody Ponce, Jake Gatewood, Brent Suter, KJ Harrison, Trey Supak ("role player prospect")

2.14 million - all other prospects ("fringe prospect")

 

Get pieces that add up to 40-43 million and you've basically equaled what the Yankees gave up. Just don't do anything foolish like picking one of the 7.49 million players, adding in all six of the 5.35 million players and then throwing in a 2.14 fringe prospects and saying you are up to 41+ million. An eight for one deal wasn't going to happen. I'd say the rules are that player #1 has to be a minimum of a 17.1735 million dollar player, player #2 has to be a minimum of a 10.7 million dollar player and no more than 4 players total can be included. Follow those three rules, mix and match and IMO any combination that adds up to at least 40 million would have been a far and competitive offer for Gray.

[LouisEly]

As I said in the trade rumors forum, Gray's trade value comes down today no matter what happens, because if they don't trade him they lose the trade value of one playoff run.

 

They asked for too much too early. Should have enticed a bidding war two weeks ago.

[JosephC]

Agree with you LouisEly, seems like the A's really misplayed the market and perhaps screwed themselves in the end. And I also agree that his price should go down from here, but it is possible that if he pitches plus-plus for the next two months he will hold slightly less but still comparable value to what he has now. He is coming off a bad 2016 season and a really strong last two months would probably make trade partners feel a bit better about 2018 and 2019 than they feel now. On the other hand, if he got hurt in September it would be a complete disaster for the A's. I agree that the possible downside is much greater if the A's would have held onto him. That being said, I'd only move a player if I felt I got back proper value, and due to my concerns with Kapreilian I don't think the A's got proper value back.

[JohnBriggs12]

I see the equivalent of Dubon, Ponce, and Ray or Clark. I'd have done that in a heartbeat.