Cubs get Wilson and Avila

[JohnBriggs12]

Thwarting the Brewers at every opportunity, Theo's grabbed up Wilson along with Avila for Candelario and a low A ball shortstop.

 

If the Brewers are ever going to overcome the Cubs, they better learn to be a bit more aggressive than we've seen this month. Because the next time they get close, it's likely the same thing will happen.

[Brewcrewin07]

Thwarting the Brewers at every opportunity, Theo's grabbed up Wilson along with Avila for Candelario and a low A ball shortstop.

 

If the Brewers are ever going to overcome the Cubs, they better learn to be a bit more aggressive than we've seen this month. Because the next time they get close, it's likely the same thing will happen.

 

I agree 1000% John. I look at the return some of these controllable players are bringing back, and I ask myself...what the hell is DS doing?? It's not like this was any great cost for Wilson either. Same with Quintana. It almost has the feel like Stearns makes one offer for someone he wants, and if it's not accepted he just doesn't bother making another offer. Again, you are not talking rental players here...these are controllable players which DS says is exactly what he wants. They aren't only win now moves. It's perplexing to say the least. The Brewers will end up doing nothing today, and if they do do anything it will be something minor and hardly impactful.

[MrTPlush]

Wilson isn't that controllable...only controlled through next year. Sure glad we aren't giving up one of our Top 5 prospects for a reliever having his first dominant year. What happens when we go south this year(sadly looking likely) and next year guys regress off their career years(also quite possible)? We literally just wasted a Top 5 prospect(Top 100 in baseball) for nothing because he would return pennies on the dollar next July if we tried to trade him.

 

I understand taking risks, but 1.5 years of control getting added to this team is just stupid risky. I don't expect you "win now at all cost" guys to understand that, but it is the reality. The last few weeks has kind of confirmed adding to this team might just not be in the cards.

 

This team has a lot of solid foundation pieces. They will compete again soon and be in a better position to sell off prospects for proven guys. Sorry, but the Cubs are in a position to trade away the farm at will and we just aren't in that position yet. If you can't understand that...welll...sorry.

[Ennder]

Another great move for the Brewers. This Cubs team has a very short fuse now. That farm system has absolutely nothing left in it. Stay the course, wait to be good 3 years from now instead of making a dumb move now because the team happened to have a hot streak right before the all star break. This roster is not one player away from making a run, it is 4 or 5. Good job DS.

[adambr2]

Wilson isn't that controllable...only controlled through next year. Sure glad we aren't giving up one of our Top 5 prospects for a reliever having his first dominant year. What happens when we go south this year(sadly looking likely) and next year guys regress off their career years(also quite possible)? We literally just wasted a Top 5 prospect(Top 100 in baseball) for nothing because he would return pennies on the dollar next July if we tried to trade him.

 

I understand taking risks, but 1.5 years of control getting added to this team is just stupid risky. I don't expect you "win now at all cost" guys to understand that, but it is the reality. The last few weeks has kind of confirmed adding to this team might just not be in the cards.

 

This team has a lot of solid foundation pieces. They will compete again soon and be in a better position to sell off prospects for proven guys. Sorry, but the Cubs are in a position to trade away the farm at will and we just aren't in that position yet. If you can't understand that...welll...sorry.

 

 

Spot on.

 

Look, the problem this year was never buying, the problem was anyone who thought buying meant 'win at all costs now.' Any buying we did was either going to have to either make sense within our long-term goals (Ray+Ortiz for Quintana, if the Cubs hadn't trumped us), or be cheap deals that made sense because of our organizational depth. (Cordell for Swarzak.).

 

Getting into bidding wars with the Cubs when they decided to up the ante would have been very foolish.

 

We are most likely not going to make the playoffs this year, but it's still been a highly encouraging year. We might have uncovered a stud at 3B, a couple of our rotation arms have really blossomed, and we have a lot of exciting young players coming up through the fsrm the next couple of years. It's an exiting time and some people want to call for Stearns' head and call the whole season a failure because we didn't beat out the defending World champions in a season that we were expected to win 70-75 games. It's hilarious.

 

The goals of David Stearns don't start each February and end each October, but there are some who will never understand the big picture.

[JohnBriggs12]

The last few weeks showed me how when your rival beats you to the punch and makes the acquisitions you hoped for, it energizes your rival and discourages your team. In short, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. This entire Brewer team has been stung by the Cubs' aggressiveness and Stearns' passive approach. It could be a decade before the Brewers are up by 5 and a half games at the break. Despite breakout years by Shaw and Santana, there are still plenty of question marks and no apparent plan to address them other than to hope young players develop. Would have helped to hold on to Scooter too instead of putting trust in Villar.

[FVBrewerFan]

Great job Stearns! Act like a buyer and deke the Cubs into making two deals. Brilliant.

[JohnBriggs12]

Another great move for the Brewers. This Cubs team has a very short fuse now. That farm system has absolutely nothing left in it. Stay the course, wait to be good 3 years from now instead of making a dumb move now because the team happened to have a hot streak right before the all star break. This roster is not one player away from making a run, it is 4 or 5. Good job DS.

 

In 3 years the Cubs will stlll be dealing their prospects (which Theo will draft and sign and develop between now and then) for good major league players to fill their few holes, and be 15 games ahead of the Brewers who will still be telling us to be patient because even though the first and second wave of prospects were busts, that third wave is really something. Epstein and Hoyer are head and shoulders above Stearns and will still have the advantage of a budget twice the Brewers'.

 

One franchise is trying to sell hope for some future that never seems to get here and the other is selling winning. Brewers have 2, count em 2 playoff appearances in 35 years. Pathetic.

[SomewhereInTime]

Another great move for the Brewers. This Cubs team has a very short fuse now. That farm system has absolutely nothing left in it. Stay the course, wait to be good 3 years from now instead of making a dumb move now because the team happened to have a hot streak right before the all star break. This roster is not one player away from making a run, it is 4 or 5. Good job DS.

 

In 3 years the Cubs will stlll be dealing their prospects for good major league players to fill their few holes, and be 15 games ahead of the Brewers. Epstein and Hoyer are head and shoulders above Stearns and will still have the advantage of a budget twice the Brewers'.

 

As a small market team you're not going to beat the big market teams by doing what they do and trading away the farm every trade deadline when you're in the race. We've tried that already and that lead to a limited window of competitiveness and sent us into this mess that required a rebuild.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The brewers just scored 5 runs in three games that included the cubs two worst starting pitchers at home, and I'm supposed to believe that adding a starting pitcher, reliever with 1.5 years left on his contract, and a veteran catcher would suddenly make them set for the stretch run?

 

Give me a break...I think one of you has training camp practice to break down film on, and the other, well, is my fault for not blocking years ago.

[adambr2]

Another great move for the Brewers. This Cubs team has a very short fuse now. That farm system has absolutely nothing left in it. Stay the course, wait to be good 3 years from now instead of making a dumb move now because the team happened to have a hot streak right before the all star break. This roster is not one player away from making a run, it is 4 or 5. Good job DS.

 

In 3 years the Cubs will stlll be dealing their prospects (which Theo will draft and sign and develop between now and then) for good major league players to fill their few holes, and be 15 games ahead of the Brewers who will still be telling us to be patient because even though the first and second wave of prospects were busts, that third wave is really something. Epstein and Hoyer are head and shoulders above Stearns and will still have the advantage of a budget twice the Brewers'.

 

One franchise is trying to sell hope for some future that never seems to get here and the other is selling winning. Brewers have 2, count em 2 playoff appearances in 35 years. Pathetic.

 

You do realize that was the whole reason Stearns was hired, right? As a long-term guy? He's here to try to end that trend and bring CONSISTENT winning baseball to Milwaukee, not to go for it and turn into major buyers in every season that they have first half success.

 

If you expected that it was all going to come together in his 2nd full season than you were setting yourself up for disappointment from the beginning. And you'll probably be disappointed again next year.

[Ennder]

You are grossly overrating this Cubs team long term.

 

3 years from now Lester and Quintana probably won't be strengths of the team. Lester is 33 and his peripherals are fading, he'll be 36 at that point. Quintana's peripherals are in a 3 year decline already and his velocity is down. The other 3 spots in their rotation are likely to be high paid free agents.

 

Rizzo will be 30 and entering his decline. Bryant will likely still be a stud. Contreras will have 3 more years on his knees which usually slows catchers down. All 3 of them are going to have to be paid heavily. Baez and Russell haven't developed at all and have been inconsistent defensively. The samples are getting large enough that they probably just aren't going to be the stars people thought they were. I don't have a good read on Happ yet but he will certainly help somewhere. Almora looks like he'll be a solid CF but Schwarber has been just awful and should not be in the field and I don't expect much out of Heyward. The entire bullpen except maybe Edwards and Montgomery will be gone with little hope to replenish it via the famr. They have almost nothing left in the farm system and 3 years from now their payroll is going to be stretched. You may say that doesn't matter but the new cba heavily punishes teams that stay at the soft salary cap.

 

The Cubs have mortgaged any chance they have at a long term dynasty over the past 2 seasons to go for wins now. I don't think they are doing the wrong thing, I think they could easily win 1 or 2 more World Series in this stretch. That doesn't change the fact that this is good for the Brewers long term. Anything they can do to make the team 3-6 years from now weaker helps our team. The 2020 Cubs aren't likely to be as good as the 2017 and each year after 2020 they will slip more and more.

 

As for this years Brewers. Adding Quintana, Wilson and Avila leaves us with a roster that I don't think can beat 2 or possibly even 3 of the Nationals, Dodgers and Diamondbacks in the playoffs. We would be trading away some important pieces just to get a wild card game and if we win it a loss in the first round. It just isn't worth it.

[KeithStone53151]

You are grossly overrating this Cubs team long term.

 

3 years from now Lester and Quintana probably won't be strengths of the team. Lester is 33 and his peripherals are fading, he'll be 36 at that point. Quintana's peripherals are in a 3 year decline already and his velocity is down. The other 3 spots in their rotation are likely to be high paid free agents.

 

Rizzo will be 30 and entering his decline. Bryant will likely still be a stud. Contreras will have 3 more years on his knees which usually slows catchers down. All 3 of them are going to have to be paid heavily. Baez and Russell haven't developed at all and have been inconsistent defensively. The samples are getting large enough that they probably just aren't going to be the stars people thought they were. I don't have a good read on Happ yet but he will certainly help somewhere. Almora looks like he'll be a solid CF but Schwarber has been just awful and should not be in the field and I don't expect much out of Heyward. The entire bullpen except maybe Edwards and Montgomery will be gone with little hope to replenish it via the famr. They have almost nothing left in the farm system and 3 years from now their payroll is going to be stretched. You may say that doesn't matter but the new cba heavily punishes teams that stay at the soft salary cap.

 

The Cubs have mortgaged any chance they have at a long term dynasty over the past 2 seasons to go for wins now. I don't think they are doing the wrong thing, I think they could easily win 1 or 2 more World Series in this stretch. That doesn't change the fact that this is good for the Brewers long term. Anything they can do to make the team 3-6 years from now weaker helps our team. The 2020 Cubs aren't likely to be as good as the 2017 and each year after 2020 they will slip more and more.

 

As for this years Brewers. Adding Quintana, Wilson and Avila leaves us with a roster that I don't think can beat 2 or possibly even 3 of the Nationals, Dodgers and Diamondbacks in the playoffs. We would be trading away some important pieces just to get a wild card game and if we win it a loss in the first round. It just isn't worth it.

 

This, 1000 times over. Except in reality this is probably their last run at a world series. Arrieta is gone after the year, lester and Quintana are already declining, the offense will still be there but they don't have the pitching to contend next year. And so many of their guys start getting expensive next year.

[Surhoff5]

The last few weeks showed me how when your rival beats you to the punch and makes the acquisitions you hoped for, it energizes your rival and discourages your team. In short, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. This entire Brewer team has been stung by the Cubs' aggressiveness and Stearns' passive approach. It could be a decade before the Brewers are up by 5 and a half games at the break. Despite breakout years by Shaw and Santana, there are still plenty of question marks and no apparent plan to address them other than to hope young players develop. Would have helped to hold on to Scooter too instead of putting trust in Villar.

 

If the Brewers' players are struggling because the Cubs picked up a good, not great pitcher, well then that is on the players. I also find it funny that starting pitching hasn't seemed to be discouraged, just the hitters and relievers? Maybe, just maybe its talent level coming back to reality?

[FVBrewerFan]

Another great move for the Brewers. This Cubs team has a very short fuse now. That farm system has absolutely nothing left in it. Stay the course, wait to be good 3 years from now instead of making a dumb move now because the team happened to have a hot streak right before the all star break. This roster is not one player away from making a run, it is 4 or 5. Good job DS.

 

In 3 years the Cubs will stlll be dealing their prospects (which Theo will draft and sign and develop between now and then) for good major league players to fill their few holes, and be 15 games ahead of the Brewers who will still be telling us to be patient because even though the first and second wave of prospects were busts, that third wave is really something. Epstein and Hoyer are head and shoulders above Stearns and will still have the advantage of a budget twice the Brewers'.

 

One franchise is trying to sell hope for some future that never seems to get here and the other is selling winning. Brewers have 2, count em 2 playoff appearances in 35 years. Pathetic.

 

It's so ironic. Why have they had only 2, count em 2, playoff appearances in 35 years? By doing exactly what you want them to do again this year!!

[MoreTrife]

The last few weeks showed me how when your rival beats you to the punch and makes the acquisitions you hoped for, it energizes your rival and discourages your team. In short, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. This entire Brewer team has been stung by the Cubs' aggressiveness and Stearns' passive approach. It could be a decade before the Brewers are up by 5 and a half games at the break. Despite breakout years by Shaw and Santana, there are still plenty of question marks and no apparent plan to address them other than to hope young players develop. Would have helped to hold on to Scooter too instead of putting trust in Villar.

 

If the Brewers' players are struggling because the Cubs picked up a good, not great pitcher, well then that is on the players. I also find it funny that starting pitching hasn't seemed to be discouraged, just the hitters and relievers? Maybe, just maybe its talent level coming back to reality?

 

 

Totally agree Surhoff. If our entire team has collapsed because the Cubs acquired one player I don't know what to say. It's really not accurate. Just a lot of players (Hernan, Villar, Sogard, Arcia, Broxton/CF) regressing at once. Nothing to do with Cubs though it coincides.

[brewmann04]

I don't think what DS has done so far is wrong and believe when this team is near he will pull te trigger and be aggressive

[dlk9s]

The last few weeks showed me how when your rival beats you to the punch and makes the acquisitions you hoped for, it energizes your rival and discourages your team.

Yes, the acquisition of a pitcher sucked all the "energy" out of the Brewers players and injected into the Cubs players, resulting in their diverging post-All Star break records.

 

Yes, that's it.

[JohnBriggs12]

Another great move for the Brewers. This Cubs team has a very short fuse now. That farm system has absolutely nothing left in it. Stay the course, wait to be good 3 years from now instead of making a dumb move now because the team happened to have a hot streak right before the all star break. This roster is not one player away from making a run, it is 4 or 5. Good job DS.

 

In 3 years the Cubs will stlll be dealing their prospects for good major league players to fill their few holes, and be 15 games ahead of the Brewers. Epstein and Hoyer are head and shoulders above Stearns and will still have the advantage of a budget twice the Brewers'.

 

As a small market team you're not going to beat the big market teams by doing what they do and trading away the farm every trade deadline when you're in the race. We've tried that already and that lead to a limited window of competitiveness and sent us into this mess that required a rebuild.

 

Those were the only 2 playoff appearances since 1982. It took Melvin being aggressive to get even that done. Being passive doesn't work and won't work. Since the All Star game, not only have the Cubs secured the division for 2017 by being aggressive, but have eliminated the Brewers' chances for 2018 and 2019 as well. If picking up Wilson or Quintana wasn't working a year from now, just deal them and get most of what you paid to get them back just as they did with Greinke.

[Ennder]

These moves haven't changed anything about 2018 and 2019. They would have just picked up another SP and RP in free agency if they didn't make these trades. 2020 is when money starts coming into play.

 

I don't think the Brewers make a real playoff run in 2018 and it is iffy in 2019. The young arms will need to break into the majors and be stretched out and that is still a couple years away.

[JosephC]

It's really interesting looking at the opinions on Candelario and Paredes. MLB.com has Candelario as the Cub's #1 prospect and in the back end of the top 100, while Baseball America lists him as the Cub's #9 prospect. Paredes is the Cub's #10 prospect on the MLB.com list and has an overall grade of 45 (normally indicating he'd be outside of the top 10 on the average organizational prospect list), but is #5 on Baseball America's list. Giving the average between a back end of the top 100 hitter and a top 10 organizational prospect, Candelario's prospect surplus value calculates out to 16.371 million. Paredes gets a top 10 organizational prospect grade for a value of 10.7 million. So combined the Cub's gave up 27.071 million in this trade.

 

Avila has been a 1.95 WAR player so far this year, so just assuming he keeps doing what he's been doing he'll be a 0.975 WAR player the rest of the year. Value for that is 8.346 million and he'll get paid 0.667 million over that timeframe...so his surplus value is +7.679 million.

 

Taking Wilson's average WAR between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, his averages for each of the last three season are as follows:

2015 = 1.45

2016 = 0.75

2017 = 1.725 (extrapolated to a full season, current average is 1.15)

Three year average = 1.308

 

Probably the most fair to assume Wilson will keep doing what he's been doing for the rest of this year and perform at the three year average next year. That means he'll have a WAR of .575 for the rest of this year (4.922 million) and a WAR of 1.308 in 2018 (11.981) for a total value of 16.903 million. He will make 0.9 million for the rest of this year and is in arbitration. Giving him as 70% increase for next year would put his 2018 salary at 4.6 million so he'd earn a combined 5.5 million through the 2018 season. 16.903-5.5 = +11.403 million in surplus value. So I'd have the surplus value of Wilson and Avila at 19.082 million.

 

So in terms of the numbers, I think this deal favors the Tigers. And according to MLB Trade Rumors, it sounds like the Tigers will either be getting another player or cash from the Cubs. But considering how all over the board the opinions are on Candelario and Paredes, it's wouldn't take much of an adjustment for the numbers to favor the Cubs (if Candelario is classified as a top 10 organizational prospect and Paredes as a role player prospect, the value of the two is 11 million less than what I estimated above). And in these trades that include rentals or short term controllable assets, it seems like the buyer always ends up overpaying by a bit. I think this deal favors the Tigers but I think it would be hard to argue it was a dramatic overpay by one side or the other.

 

I was hoping Wilson would get traded on his own so an estimate could be made on what the Brewer's would have had to give up to get him. The estimate is the Cubs gave up 27 million. How much of that was "allocated" to Wilson and how much to Avila? I don't think there is any question the headliner in the deal is Wilson although I think Avila could pay better dividends for the Cubs through the rest of this year (I already liked the back end of the Cub's bullpen). Let's say this trade was 3/4's about Wilson (considering he's controlled for the extra year), that would put his part of the prospect surplus value surrendered at approximately 20 million. That would mean for the Brewers to have landed Wilson the most likely candidates would have been one of the top pitching prospects plus a fringe prospect. So one off the list of Hader, Ortiz, Woodruff and one off the list of Josh Pennington, Jorge Lopez, Kodi Medeiros, Clint Coulter, Demi Orimoloye, Chad McClanahan. That considered, I'm glad Stearns ended up sitting this one out.

[Hambrewer]

If picking up Wilson or Quintana wasn't working a year from now, just deal them and get most of what you paid to get them back just as they did with Greinke.

 

Sure, Jean Segura, Johnny Hellweg and Ariel Pena is about the same as Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi and Jeremy Jeffress. Very shrewd point.

[FVBrewerFan]

Those were the only 2 playoff appearances since 1982. It took Melvin being aggressive to get even that done. Being passive doesn't work and won't work. Since the All Star game, not only have the Cubs secured the division for 2017 by being aggressive, but have eliminated the Brewers' chances for 2018 and 2019 as well.

 

Brewers chances are eliminated in 2018 and 2019? Wow, can you tell me where the S&P will be in 2019? That would be really helpful.

 

By the way, Melvin "being aggressive" did not work. They didn't make it to the WS, much less win it. When the time comes Stearns will be plenty aggressive, thankfully he's using his brain instead of emotions to determine when to do so.

[monty57]

In 3 years the Cubs will stlll be dealing their prospects (which Theo will draft and sign and develop between now and then) for good major league players to fill their few holes, and be 15 games ahead of the Brewers who will still be telling us to be patient because even though the first and second wave of prospects were busts, that third wave is really something. Epstein and Hoyer are head and shoulders above Stearns and will still have the advantage of a budget twice the Brewers'.

 

One franchise is trying to sell hope for some future that never seems to get here and the other is selling winning. Brewers have 2, count em 2 playoff appearances in 35 years. Pathetic.

 

John, remember that the Cubs' rebuild took a long time. We're far ahead of where they were at this stage of the rebuild, when they were starting a string of 100-loss seasons. I get the frustration, as it's tough to see the Brewers sinking while the Cubs surge, but we can't destroy a multi-year plan to chase a short-term goal. If the Cubs had an odd year during that string where they were playing over their head and other teams were down, and they traded away Bryant and others to "go for it," (maybe holding onto some of the pieces they traded away to land guys like Rizzo, Russell, etc.) they never would have won a World Series.

 

Stearns made a solid offer on Quintana, which I'm sure upped the price tag for the Cubs. A comparable offer from us would likely have been something like Brinson, Ortiz and Diaz. Those three could be the heart of our multi-year playoff run before too long, and was way too much for the Brewers to pay at this stage. The Cubs have a young MLB core who just won a World Series, and an infinite money supply. They are at a stage where they feel they can "gut the farm." The Brewers have shown that they are more talented then many thought, but they still have too many holes to make it sensible to "gut the farm."

 

Stearns (with the help of some moves from Melvin late in his tenure) looks to have turned a 5-10 year rebuild into a rebuild in which one 72-win season is our low point. That's borderline miraculous. I still hope we can right the ship and win the division this year, but regardless of what happens, we will have a lot of positives to build on going forward, with a lot of talent coming up from the farm to supplement the young core we're already building.

 

It hurts to see our inflated hopes lose some air right now, but I'm still very excited about where this franchise is sitting relative to where it was not too long ago.

[MillerParkSouth]

Well said Monty.

 

Look, even if the cubs didn't make any moves, there was a good chance they would win the division based on the second half schedules and the talent levels of the two teams. Our good first half at least made them push basically all their remaining chips into the pile and shortened their window. Didn't Theo get run out of Boston for leaving the cupboard totally empty? Hopefully that's what's happening here. This team still isn't in the class of the Dodgers.