TOP PROSPECTS

[leitermab07]

according to the new MILB Pipeline the Brewers are now the 19th ranked minor league system.. Say what you want about the players struggling this year, but the scouts and experts have taken notice. A lot of guys have dropped out of top 50 or 100 lists and the overall ranking of this team has significantly dropped and this is from only losing one top significant prospect from the list in Hader. I'll listen to the scouts and people who know what they are doing. Its been a disappointing year, especially for the top end of our prospects

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/244152682/yoan-moncada-tops-2017-midseason-prospect-list/?topicid=151437456

[Austin Tatious]

To be fair, the article expressly states that it is NOT a ranking of systems as whole, but rather who has the most higher end prospects (by ranking in the top 100).

 

The Brewer strength as a system is in the depth. I'd agree, though, with all the drafting failures, the amount of high impact talent is not so great as of today. But, some of the lower ranked guys may come up in a big way. It's just too early to declare it. From the group of Lutz, Lemons, Murphy, Ward, Ernesto, Martinez, Rodriguez, Pierre, McClanhan, Henry, et al. and many others, there could be multiple guys bubble up. The depth is so great, we have more oars in the water from which high end talent may emerge.

[FVBrewerFan]

Lot of factual errors in this thread.

 

1. Trent Clark was drafted 15th in 2015

2. Trent Clark was a high school draftee

3. Ryan Braun never struggled in the minors. He was drafted in 2005 and roared through the minors. He hit .324 with 34 homers in 2007 in the majors.

 

His high A season sticks out like a sore thumb compared to the rest of his minor league stats. Sub 800 ops, look it up.

 

Very important, Braun put up sub- .800 HALF season in A+. And that was still .784. For the entire season he hit .871. While that may be lower than his other seasons, I would hardly call that struggling.

[Lathund]

Why is this thread in the transactions area? And the thread title makes no sense. What does 'TOP PROSPECTS' mean?

 

It seems this is nothing more than a venting thread aimed at the performance of some of our minor leaguers - and our GM's apparent refusal to trade any of these guys.

 

It seems to me to also be about an attempt to make fun of the people who diagree with his view, i.e the ones who want to stand pat. Create a strawman that anyone worried about overpaying is being ridiculous and that we think any trade at all "would ruin the rebuilding process". Using batting average and plain falsehoods to say that a 20 year old in A+ (2.5 years younger than the league average) producing 120 wRC+ is somehow a disaster. Not the first thread started for that purpose either.

[OnaBadger58]

Lot of factual errors in this thread.

 

1. Trent Clark was drafted 15th in 2015

2. Trent Clark was a high school draftee

3. Ryan Braun never struggled in the minors. He was drafted in 2005 and roared through the minors. He hit .324 with 34 homers in 2007 in the majors.

 

His high A season sticks out like a sore thumb compared to the rest of his minor league stats. Sub 800 ops, look it up.

 

Very important, Braun put up sub- .800 HALF season in A+. And that was still .784. For the entire season he hit .871. While that may be lower than his other seasons, I would hardly call that struggling.

Not disagreeing with you about Braun, but keep in mind he was 22 in A+. Clark and Diaz will turn/turned 21 during the season.

[82brewcrew82]

Why is this thread in the transactions area? And the thread title makes no sense. What does 'TOP PROSPECTS' mean?

 

It seems this is nothing more than a venting thread aimed at the performance of some of our minor leaguers - and our GM's apparent refusal to trade any of these guys.

 

It seems to me to also be about an attempt to make fun of the people who diagree with his view, i.e the ones who want to stand pat. Create a strawman that anyone worried about overpaying is being ridiculous and that we think any trade at all "would ruin the rebuilding process". Using batting average and plain falsehoods to say that a 20 year old in A+ (2.5 years younger than the league average) producing 120 wRC+ is somehow a disaster. Not the first thread started for that purpose either.

 

 

it's called trolling.

[82brewcrew82]

according to the new MILB Pipeline the Brewers are now the 19th ranked minor league system.. Say what you want about the players struggling this year, but the scouts and experts have taken notice. A lot of guys have dropped out of top 50 or 100 lists and the overall ranking of this team has significantly dropped and this is from only losing one top significant prospect from the list in Hader. I'll listen to the scouts and people who know what they are doing. Its been a disappointing year, especially for the top end of our prospects

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/244152682/yoan-moncada-tops-2017-midseason-prospect-list/?topicid=151437456

 

 

This is a bit misleading in terms of what the article actually says. I think everyone on this board has been very open to the fact that this system is devoid of top shelf talent. The depth is what produced the high rankings. So yes, graduating a high ranking player like Hader is going to have an impact. We don't have top shelf talent, which is why I'm so perplexed as to why folks are disappointed that we are not getting top shelf results.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Not sure every Brewer fan shooting down potential trade rumors that involve ANY prospect in the pre-season Brewers Top 10 prospects is informed at how much and quickly some of their stock has even fallen. This thread points that out with factual statistics.

 

Simply put the Brewers Minor League System as a whole is not having a good season.

 

Many pre-season "TOP PROSPECTS" are struggling in the minor leagues.

 

The Brewers entered the year as a consensus Top 5 farm system and now some rankings don't even have us listed in the Top Half of all farm systems in baseball.

 

Maybe Brewer fans wouldn't be so against the Brewers trading some of their prospect depth to improve the MLB club if they were aware of the possibility that the Top of the Brewers farm system could be littered with a handful of "Clint Coulters" and few if any "Ryan Brauns".

 

Someone said they considered prospect value to be the same as stocks.

 

Pre-season Top 10

1. Lewis Brinson, of- Hit well in Colorado Springs, terrible in MLB trail- STOCK SAME

2. Josh Hader, lhp- 5.37 ERA in Colorado Springs, protected in MLB bullpen- STOCK SAME

3. Luis Ortiz, rhp- 3.79 ERA in AA, STOCK SAME

4. Corey Ray, of- .672 OPS at A+, K issues- STOCK DOWN

5. Isan Diaz, ss/2b- .719 OPS at A+, K issues- STOCK DOWN

6. Trent Clark, of- .771 OPS at A+, power not developing- STOCK DOWN

7. Brandon Woodruff, rhp- 4.78 ERA in Colorado Sprins, on cusp of MAJORS- STOCK SAME

8. Phil Bickford, rhp- Suspended and Injured- STOCK DOWN

9. Lucas Erceg, 3b- .653 OPS at A+, HR rate down- STOCK DOWN

10. Marcos Diplan, rhp- 5.70 ERA at A+. 2nd season at level- STOCK DOWN

 

Outside the Top 10 Hopefuls:

OF Brett Phillips- Hit well at AAA after down season but it was in thin air- STOCK UP

RHP Corbin Burnes- 1.38 ERA between A+, AA- STOCK WAY UP

1B Jake Gatewood- .803 OPS at A+, vision corrected- STOCK UP

OF Monte Harrison- .827 OPS at A+, 16/17 HR/SB- STOCK UP

 

Lewis Brinson is the only player I would have confidence the is a certain MLB regular in our entire system at this point in time, with 2017 1st rounder Keston Hiura a close 2nd.

 

It won't help matters that the Brewer won't pick at the top of next Junes draft either.

[And That]

The Brewers entered the year as a consensus Top 5 farm system

No.

 

now some rankings don't even have us listed in the Top Half of all farm systems in baseball.

Links?

[A Swing and A Drive]

The Brewers entered the year as a consensus Top 5 farm system

No.

 

now some rankings don't even have us listed in the Top Half of all farm systems in baseball.

Links?

 

Preseason Link

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/217383778/top-10-farm-systems-by-mlb-pipeline/

 

Midseason Link

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/244152682/yoan-moncada-tops-2017-midseason-prospect-list/

[And That]

Assuming you're talking about that Prospect Points thing, they state this within the article:

 

We've been using our Prospect Points system for some time now, not as a true guide of which organizations have the best overall farm systems

Also, that's (not even) one. You said more than one.

[82brewcrew82]

The Brewers entered the year as a consensus Top 5 farm system

No.

 

now some rankings don't even have us listed in the Top Half of all farm systems in baseball.

Links?

 

Preseason Link

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/217383778/top-10-farm-systems-by-mlb-pipeline/

 

Midseason Link

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/244152682/yoan-moncada-tops-2017-midseason-prospect-list/

 

Um, no. Check the mid season link again and you'll see that your not understanding the point of the article, but why let facts get in the way. Frankly, you are either at the point where you are willfully misleading and doing nothing but trolling or you just can't comprehend what you are reading which pretty much negates anything you have to say (either way).

[WV Brew]

Clark is 30 points better in OBP this year than last. His SLG is up 50 points. All in a more difficult hitting environment. Yet his stock is down?

[82brewcrew82]

Clark is 30 points better in OBP this year than last. His SLG is up 50 points. All in a more difficult hitting environment. Yet his stock is down?

 

 

Yeah, not buying that argument on Diaz, Bickford, or Clark. Not sure I'm really even buying it on Diplan. Ray and Erceg are the only two in my opinion that have vastly under-performed.

[leitermab07]

Preseason Link

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/217383778/top-10-farm-systems-by-mlb-pipeline/

 

Midseason Link

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/244152682/yoan-moncada-tops-2017-midseason-prospect-list/

 

Um, no. Check the mid season link again and you'll see that your not understanding the point of the article, but why let facts get in the way. Frankly, you are either at the point where you are willfully misleading and doing nothing but trolling or you just can't comprehend what you are reading which pretty much negates anything you have to say (either way).

 

Maybe you should check the facts. This article ranks the Top prospects based on a points system., I believe this thread is about TOP PROSPECTS. Brewers TOP PROSPECTS had the 19th highest amount of points for TOP PROSPECTS. Just because we feel different about the TOP PROSPECTS doesn't mean we are trolling or "throwing hate". Check the facts of the new ranked updates from Keith Law, BP, BA, and MILB. ALL of them have the top brewers prospects falling back and out of the top 50 or 100 (other than Brinson). There were 8 new Brewers just put into the top 30 Brewers rankings for MILB and two of them in the top 10. Did the new 8 draft picks get put in that ranking because they are soooo good, or because our top prospects have under performed and underwhelmed? According to all the scouts and the ranking between all 4 sources, it is the latter.

 

I posted this already, but according to Keith Law, look at the guys who have dropped

With that, I have the espn Insider have access to Keith Laws prospect updates.

 

Brewers ranked in the top 50 for April and July as well as the top 100 he created in January

 

January 2017 ranking(top 100) - April Rankings update(Top 50) - July ranking update(Top 50)

 

Ray 34 - 27 - NR

Brinson 38 - 31 - 30

Diaz 41 - 30 - NR

Burnes - NR - NR - 38

Clark - 67 - NR - NR

Erceg - 70 - NR - NR

Hader - 71 - NR - NR

Ortiz - 79 - NR - NR

Woodruff - 100 - NR - NR

 

According to BA

 

February - May - July

 

Lewis Brinson - 27 - 20 - 16

Josh Hader - 33 - 61 - 31

Corey Ray - 42 - NR - NR

Luis Ortiz - 79 - 67 - 73

Brandon Woodruff - 82 - 74 - 43

Isan Diaz - 93 - NR - NR

 

do yourself a favor and look at BP and MILB and see how those guys have dropped from those scouts as well. This includes plenty of guys that have graduated from the prospect list, so most guys should rise on that situation alone, yet this system has shown the opposite. This thread feels like the White house.. If you don't agree, I guess it is fake news, and we should blame Obama (aka Melvin). Go Crew!

[And That]

I believe this thread is about TOP PROSPECTS.

Yes, but the guy was referring to farm system rankings (which is what the preseason link was), which the prospect point system is not, which is expressly stated in the article.

 

And I never did hear about those other places that have the Brewers ranked in the lower half of farm systems...

[leitermab07]

I believe this thread is about TOP PROSPECTS.

Yes, but the guy was referring to farm system rankings (which is what the preseason link was), which the prospect point system is not, which is expressly stated in the article.

 

And I never did hear about those other places that have the Brewers ranked in the lower half of farm systems...

 

Do you know how to read? In both articles it says the same thing in the beginning, so its consistent..

 

From the march article

"What makes an organization rank as one of the top farm systems in baseball? Simply put, it's a combination of quality and quantity. The MLBPipeline.com staff ranked the Top 10 systems in the game by considering which organizations have an abundance of elite-level prospect talent as well as depth, in terms of future big leaguers up and down the system.

Prospect Points are determined by awarding a team 100 points for the No. 1 prospect on the Top 100 list, 99 points for No. 2 and so on, down to one point for No. 100. Points are then tallied by team.

 

Brewers had 292 points (5th)

 

From July article,

 

"Prospect Points

 

100 points to the team with the No. 1 prospect, 99 to the team with No. 2 and so on down the line, below are the teams' ranks in terms of "prospect points.

 

We've been using our Prospect Points system for some time now, not as a true guide of which organizations have the best overall farm systems (keep an eye out for a new Top 10 farm system rankings soon), but to give a sense of who has the potential to have the most impact talent. Assign 100 points to the No. 1 prospect (Moncada), 99 to the No. 2 (Rosario) and so on down the line to one point for the No. 100 prospect (Tigers pitcher Beau Burrows)."

 

Brewers had 144 points (19th)

 

Everyone was celebrating and talking how this team had a top 5 minor league system, but now that they score them out of the top 15th, then it doesn't count.. smh

[OnaBadger58]

Also from the article in July:

 

"We've been using our Prospect Points system for some time now, not as a true guide of which organizations have the best overall farm systems (keep an eye out for a new Top 10 farm system rankings soon), but to give a sense of who has the potential to have the most impact talent."

 

It doesn't look at overall farm system talent, but rather who can have the most impact. These are not consistent and the Brewers have a far better system than #19.

[leitermab07]

Also from the article in July:

 

"We've been using our Prospect Points system for some time now, not as a true guide of which organizations have the best overall farm systems (keep an eye out for a new Top 10 farm system rankings soon), but to give a sense of who has the potential to have the most impact talent."

 

It doesn't look at overall farm system talent, but rather who can have the most impact. These are not consistent and the Brewers have a far better system than #19.

 

I agree. But these total points in their ranking system, in the opinion of Pipeline, correlates with their opinion of the teams overall ranking. Are they 19, no way IMO.. but they might not be top 10 anymore, based on TOP PROSPECTS that will have the greatest impact.

[Eye Black]

The whole "Prospect Points" concept is flawed and lame, in my opinion.

[82brewcrew82]

Also from the article in July:

 

"We've been using our Prospect Points system for some time now, not as a true guide of which organizations have the best overall farm systems (keep an eye out for a new Top 10 farm system rankings soon), but to give a sense of who has the potential to have the most impact talent."

 

It doesn't look at overall farm system talent, but rather who can have the most impact. These are not consistent and the Brewers have a far better system than #19.

 

I agree. But these total points in their ranking system, in the opinion of Pipeline, correlates with their opinion of the teams overall ranking. Are they 19, no way IMO.. but they might not be top 10 anymore, based on TOP PROSPECTS that will have the greatest impact.

 

Now your just talking in circles. You can have your opinion but your flat wrong on the interpretation of that article and OB58 correctly pointed out the article EXPRESSLY states that this NOT A TRUE GUIDE OF WHICH ORGANIZATIONS HAVE THE BEST OVERALL FARM SYSTEMS. Seems pretty clear to me.

 

Secondly, when A Swing posted about he was inferring the article was speaking about the overall ranking of the farm system, which it doesn't. So yeah, I did read and I believe you're still wrong.

[Jenkins5]

I've been digging into the stats and I think that it is important to fans to realize that while we have left BC, Carolina is not the most hitter friendly league.

 

A regular everyday player by this time in the season should be around 350 PA's by now so that is how I filtered stats. Ray, Erceg, Clark, Diaz, Gatewood, Aviles, and Stokes all qualify.

 

Only 2 qualifying hitters are hitting over .300

1 in the .290's

3 in the .280's

3 including Jake Gatewood hitting in the .270's

1 in the .260's

4 in the .250's

 

That is a grand total of 9 everyday hitters in the league hitting over .270....... 14 over .250

 

A more inclusive 300 PA's

.300+ 4

.290's 4

.280's 5

.270's 5

.260's 4

.250's 4

 

26 players in the league are hitting over .250

 

Rankings for the 350 PA's by average

Gatewood 9th

Stokes 18th

Clark 22nd

Erceg 23rd

Diaz 25th

Ray 27th

Aviles 28th

 

Sure you wish they were all higher, however, average in the Carolina league is a terrible assessment of a player. Very few hitters are hitting for average in the league....Only 14 every day players are over .250!

 

Important stats to me for assessing a prospect:

BB% and K% .....A "professional hitter" like most elites in the Majors will walk 10+% while striking out 22% or less. This shows me a lot of the style hitter they are. I like OBP guys who also make contact (more you walk and put bat on ball, usually the better results.)

 

BA- OBP Difference. I don't pay much attention to Batting Average...easy but not great indicator of a players success. OBP can be deeply hit by hitter struggling to hit. So I look at the difference. I want all prospects to at least be .70 higher than BA but prefer them to be over .100 more.

 

ISO- I like power like most people. Like to see how often players are hitting ball hard

 

wRC+ is my favorite and most important stat as it is most comprehensive for a milb hitter. I treat it like WAR.

 

wOBA I also will consider.

 

Looking at our hitters

ISO

.197 5th Stokes

.178 6th Gatewood

.156 12th Clark

.152 14th Diaz

.141 16th Diaz

.131 20th Ray

 

For the level being around .15 is solid sign. Only 2 players in FSL have over .150, 11 in Cal League, 14 in Carolina

 

BB% to K%

1st Clark 18.7% ......26% K'ing too much but wow with the walks

7th Diaz 13.8% ......26% Same as Clark with K's needing to drop down but walks are great

9th Stokes 11.2% ...18% Outstanding

13th Ray 10%........31.4% ......well he is walking

15th Gatewood 9.5%....27.4% Awesome growth this season! BB's up and K's slowly going down!

Too low Erceg 5%.... 17.6% ugly bb% but he doesn't K much

 

OBP (over BA)

Clark - 3rd highest OBP in league at .377, .140 over BA

Gatewood 8th at .347, .075 over BA

Stokes 12th at .343, .090 over BA

Diaz 14th at .337, .110 over BA

Ray .307 and .075 over BA

Erceg doesn't like walks do .277 and .040 over BA

 

wRC+

7th Gatewood 123

8th Clark ...... 122

10th Stokes... 120

16th Diaz.......104

 

Ray 86 and Erceg 79

 

Overall looking through all this, Batting Average says almost nothing about what a player is doing. All 6 of these guys are hitting not far apart in terms of average but are nowhere close to hitting the same. Ray and Ray have been very not good all season. Considering they are the two oldest of the six, that is disappointing. Ray doesn't make contact, Erceg doesn't walk or get on base. Both are hitting lighter than the other 4. They simply have not played well and ARE what their average tells you.

 

Gatewood, Clark, Stokes are 3 of the top offensive players in the league. Literally block out Clark's batting average and you'd be in love with him as a prospect! If he could drop his K's down to that 20-22% range, He'd be even higher on him. I think it is absolutely insane how much a 20 year old gets trashed on here and written of simple because his batting afverage isn't high enough for them....its a joke. Gatewood has been consistently outstanding all season. Stokes is a sleeper! Kid can play baseball!

 

Diaz is not far off the three. He is a little behind the others but not playing terrible. Lot of positives when you look at the numbers. Still think he has the most upside on this roster at the plate but needs to cut down K's and have some better luck. Both him and Stokes have pretty low Babip's.

[82brewcrew82]

Great work Geezy! Pretty much what I have been saying in that Ray and Erceg have been the only ones truly performing below expectations. I apologize ahead of time for the blow back you are going to get for daring to give context.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Some of y'all put way too much stock into MiLB stats. Especially if you look in the environment they're playing in.

[FVBrewerFan]

Fielder was .800+ as a 20 yr old in AA. Braun was just under .800 in half a season in BC. That's what studs do. Does hitting .235 in Carolina mean those guts are bad hitters? No. Does batting avg or OPS tell the whole story? No. Every one of those guys still have prospect status.

 

Depends what we're debating I guess, but you very rarely see big time MLB hitters who ever hit .230 in a MiLB season.